PredictIt: Gambling on Politics

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Owlspiracy: Nov 4, 2020

Hello this is a thread to talk about PredictIt!

PredictIt is everyone's favorite New Zealand University run political gambling site, where you can shamelessly pump your positions by lying in the comments. There's a PI thread in CSPAM but I think its probably more appropriate to have on here.

Shamelessly stolen from elsewhere:

quote:

What is PredictIt?
Are you someone who regularly gets frustrated when the general public gets worked into a frenzy over something you know to be impossible, or blown out of proportion? Do your friends, family, and coworkers generally hand-wave away your attempts at reasoning against the screaming heads on the television, only to forget you'd even said anything about it a week later? What if I told you there was this magical website where you could make money off this phenomenon? You'll still be that lone jerk who ruins conversations at happy hour but at least you'll have the beer money covered.

PredictIt is a "predictive market" that operates sort of like a stock market, but is different in a few key ways. As a trader you can buy & sell shares of a certain real-world event occurring at some point in the future. These shares can be bought & sold for any amount between $.01 and $.99. If the event occurs, the 'Yes' shares settle at $1.00 while the 'No' shares become worthless while if the event doesn't occur, becomes impossible, or simply passes its expiration, then the 'No' shares settle at $1.00. Easy peasy.

So I can trade these, too?
Yes! If you've bought shares you don't have to wait for the deadline! You can turn around and offer your shares right back onto the market at a higher price. Know that a certain event is a sure bet, but will have huge swings in public opinion in the meantime? Buy low, wait for a scandal to break, then sell high! Once the media frenzy passes over the price will settle again and you can buy right back in at the low price! For a good example of this: check out the Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon market over the past 90 days.

This sounds shady... is it legal?
Yep. The parent company has a no-action letter from the CFTC. So unlike InTrade they went to the CFTC before launching the site to make sure everything they did was kosher. The biggest restraint imposed on them is the $850 maximum buy-in to any one market. So basically if you get drunk and dumb the most you can lose on any one bet is $850. Please don't drink and trade.

So what's the catch?
PredictIt only charges you 10% of your winnings and then a 5% withdrawal fee. What this means is that if your shares settle, you only pay a cut of what you made. So for example if you bought a share at $.20 and had it settle at $1.00, you only pay the 10% off the $.80 you made in profit, in this case being $.08. The other time they charge is a straight 5% withdrawal fee. Because of that if you're only planning on betting once then cashing out, you shouldn't purchase any shares around .94 or higher as the withdrawal fee will sap all your earnings anyways. However if you plan on re-investing your winnings you can run with much tighter margins as there's no charge for buying shares.

Helpful Hints:

+ READ THE ACTUAL RULES OF THE MARKET BEFORE BUYING ANYTHING
+ READ THE ACTUAL RULES OF THE MARKET BEFORE BUYING ANYTHING
+ Don't bet any more money than you're willing to watch vanish before your eyes
+ Don't take advice from the comments section
+ Don't place bets when you're drunk
+ Markets are very volatile when they first open. Subscribing to their email alerts is a good way to get the jump on a new market when it's being its most silly.
+ DON'T BUY THE HYPE

# ? Jan 11, 2021 19:02

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 08:44

Owlspiracy: Nov 4, 2020

A lot of fun with this market right now: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4353/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2020-election

The issue is that the market close date (which has been confirmed many times) is on the 20th, and GA certifies can certify their elections up to the 22nd.

There's a ton of movement today because they just added two new markets to bet on Warnock and Ossoff's swearing in dates, which has created a lot of movement towards pricing the original market more correctly. Good potential to either ride the repricing up, or even get in now cheaper and hold.

# ? Jan 11, 2021 19:07

shame on an IGA: Apr 8, 2005

"Don't bet on the home team" is perhaps more important to keep in mind here than anywhere else as Bernie dragged my lifetime returns to -93.8%

# ? Jan 11, 2021 21:16

Baddog: May 12, 2001

My strategy on predictit is just to grind out the high percentage plays. Can make 20% a year *easily*, and I just let it grow.

Although this election/situation has given a lot of opportunity to make nearly 10% every few weeks or even days.

"Will trump be impeached by the 20th" is 92 cents currently, I got it at 87 and its still probably a good bet. It doesn't need to make it to the senate, just that the house will pass it. "U.S. House of Representatives, by simple majority, votes to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment "

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7044/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term

Baddog fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Jan 11, 2021

# ? Jan 11, 2021 21:30

Jakabite: Jul 31, 2010

Can't wait to jump into this when I a few things I have coming in arrive. Been looking for something like this for a while - betting on sports is fun and I do alright but politics is far more my poo poo.

# ? Jan 11, 2021 22:27

Hufflepuff or bust!: Jan 28, 2005; I should have known better.

PredictIt is amazing although my hours spent over actual return is probably abysmal. I'm over six figures in winnings over four years as of this December but I probably spend at least an hour or two a day worth of brainpower thinking about markets and optimizing positions or dwelling on regrets on bad play. Good poo poo.

# ? Jan 12, 2021 15:42

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

So this is just betting on when Warnock and Ossoff are getting sworn in now?

mcmagic fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Jan 12, 2021

# ? Jan 12, 2021 19:07

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

mcmagic posted:

So this is just betting on when Warnock and Ossoff are getting sworn in now?

Basically. It dipped last night to around 30c for D / R yes.

Ask yourself this: are the first black senator from Georgia and the first Latino senator from CA going to be sworn in by Pence/McConnell before inauguration, or by VP Kamala Harris the day after inauguration? Even that depends on Georgia certifying their elections on time and the latest news article out of GA said things were "running smoothly" and they'd certify "as early as the 20th."

It is possible that Biden/Harris are inaugurated at 1pm on the 20th and then skip the festivities and haul rear end to the Senate to swear in the new Senators. But, why would they do that? They'll wait until the 21st, Senators will be sworn in then (assuming GA has certified) and they'll start passing actual bills.

# ? Jan 12, 2021 20:32

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Fritz the Horse posted:

Basically. It dipped last night to around 30c for D / R yes.

Ask yourself this: are the first black senator from Georgia and the first Latino senator from CA going to be sworn in by Pence/McConnell before inauguration, or by VP Kamala Harris the day after inauguration? Even that depends on Georgia certifying their elections on time and the latest news article out of GA said things were "running smoothly" and they'd certify "as early as the 20th."

It is possible that Biden/Harris are inaugurated at 1pm on the 20th and then skip the festivities and haul rear end to the Senate to swear in the new Senators. But, why would they do that? They'll wait until the 21st, Senators will be sworn in then (assuming GA has certified) and they'll start passing actual bills.

I have a bunch of Yes at 69 cents per. Maybe i should bail lol.

# ? Jan 12, 2021 20:36

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

mcmagic posted:

I have a bunch of Yes at 69 cents per. Maybe i should bail lol.

You have a bunch of D / D Yes at 69c?

It might pop up a bit more tonight. It's looking similar to yesterday where it pumped toward No during the day then went back down at night.

But yes, if you have bets on D / D Yes I'd consider selling them. Maybe if the market pops back up around 69c later tonight so you don't take a loss. You could buy D / D No and/or D / R yes if you wanted, you'd better than double your money. But right now you're risking quite a bit on GA certifying fast and the senators for some reason wanting to be sworn in by Mitch and Pence.

I can post here if the price comes back up toward 69c dunno how closely you are watching this thread or Predictit. Right now it's dropping.

# ? Jan 12, 2021 20:56

Jakabite: Jul 31, 2010

God drat it I just found out it's US only. Are they going to check for an SSN? Is there any proxy I can use, or an alternative site? This is exactly what I was looking for so pretty disappointed. UK, by the way.

# ? Jan 12, 2021 21:07

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Fritz the Horse posted:

You have a bunch of D / D Yes at 69c?

It might pop up a bit more tonight. It's looking similar to yesterday where it pumped toward No during the day then went back down at night.

But yes, if you have bets on D / D Yes I'd consider selling them. Maybe if the market pops back up around 69c later tonight so you don't take a loss. You could buy D / D No and/or D / R yes if you wanted, you'd better than double your money. But right now you're risking quite a bit on GA certifying fast and the senators for some reason wanting to be sworn in by Mitch and Pence.

I can post here if the price comes back up toward 69c dunno how closely you are watching this thread or Predictit. Right now it's dropping.

It's bouncing between 61 and 65 in the last hour. I'll probably sell if it gets back to 69 or 70 tonight and buy some No

# ? Jan 12, 2021 21:11

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Jakabite posted:

God drat it I just found out it's US only. Are they going to check for an SSN? Is there any proxy I can use, or an alternative site? This is exactly what I was looking for so pretty disappointed. UK, by the way.

They need your name and mailing address for taxes otherwise I dunno. I'll ask the guy I heard about this from, he's pretty savvy on gambling stuff.

The specific market we are discussing is: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4353/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2020-election

this is apparently an example of what's called a "rules cuck"

The "spirit" of the market is pretty obvious. Dems won both Senate and House. But the written rules of the bet which have been clarified several times (and will not change) is that it counts who has been sworn in by the end of Jan 20th (inauguration day) and it is very unlikely that the GA election will be certified and senators sworn in by then.

The sharks on PI saw this one a month ago and got in for pennies on D / D No and D / R Yes but you could still get in around 30-35c and triple your money. There is some risk involved but it's very very likely the new Dem senators are not seated by end of the 20th.

# ? Jan 12, 2021 21:13

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

FYI

https://twitter.com/JulieNBCNews/status/1349082657162989576

# ? Jan 12, 2021 21:15

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

mcmagic posted:

FYI

https://twitter.com/JulieNBCNews/status/1349082657162989576

Yeah but, how would she know this? She "believes."

That still depends on GA certifying.

That would mean Pence and Mitch swear them in. Why?

the good news is the market will react to that and you can sell your Yes and buy DD No and DR Yes if you want :v:

edit: Gillibrand is probably going off the official Dem Senate schedule for the 19th. Which doesn't mean anything, because the Dems do not control the Senate.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Jan 12, 2021

# ? Jan 12, 2021 21:18

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

It's going up lol 66 now.

# ? Jan 12, 2021 21:21

AHH F/UGH: May 25, 2002

The site is great and run really well - but the 5% withdrawal fee is outrageous. Everything you do you're working at a 5% disadvantage, basically.

# ? Jan 13, 2021 01:24

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

AHH F/UGH posted:

The site is great and run really well - but the 5% withdrawal fee is outrageous. Everything you do you're working at a 5% disadvantage, basically.

They also take 10% of all winnings but that I can live with more

# ? Jan 13, 2021 02:19

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Only have to worry about it when you withdraw, it's like an IRA!

# ? Jan 13, 2021 02:23

abelwingnut: Dec 23, 2002

AHH F/UGH posted:

The site is great and run really well - but the 5% withdrawal fee is outrageous. Everything you do you're working at a 5% disadvantage, basically.

pi is one of the worst run gambling sites imaginable. the fees are exorbitant, the design is trash, the customer service is beyond atrocious, the willingness to dive in to news is barely existent, and, worst of all, they don't realize how much of a good thing they have.

the site could make millions and millions of dollars, easy. but they are so stale in their thinking. trust me, this site could be far more than it is.

# ? Jan 13, 2021 02:55

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Fritz the Horse posted:

Yeah but, how would she know this? She "believes."

That still depends on GA certifying.

That would mean Pence and Mitch swear them in. Why?

the good news is the market will react to that and you can sell your Yes and buy DD No and DR Yes if you want

edit: Gillibrand is probably going off the official Dem Senate schedule for the 19th. Which doesn't mean anything, because the Dems do not control the Senate.

I got out at 68c and back in at 29c for DR.

# ? Jan 13, 2021 04:32

reignonyourparade: Nov 15, 2012

AHH F/UGH posted:

The site is great and run really well - but the 5% withdrawal fee is outrageous. Everything you do you're working at a 5% disadvantage, basically.

Eh if you roll winnings forward into other bets it's not so bad.

# ? Jan 13, 2021 06:21

Fill Baptismal: Dec 15, 2008

The saying about �market remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent� really applies here btw. There is a lot of extremely dumb money. Can use it to your advantage obviously, but beware the short term. It doesn�t always react as rationally as you�d think.

# ? Jan 13, 2021 06:39

Stefan Prodan: Jan 7, 2002; I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!; Grimey Drawer

Still Dismal posted:

The saying about �market remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent� really applies here btw. There is a lot of extremely dumb money. Can use it to your advantage obviously, but beware the short term. It doesn�t always react as rationally as you�d think.

Yeah I assume that's why people can beat the 10% vig is it's just like where else do you get to bet on elections that have already taken place lol

# ? Jan 13, 2021 09:53

slicing up eyeballs: Oct 19, 2005; I got me two olives and a couple of limes

Fritz the Horse posted:

They also take 10% of all winnings but that I can live with more

my secret is to never win :hehe:

# ? Jan 13, 2021 19:22

shame on an IGA: Apr 8, 2005

btw when we say "there's a lot of dumb money on this site", we mean completely loving mental poo poo like someone buying 22,000 shares of "Republicans win the 2020 presidential popular vote by 10.5% or more" at $0.03 today, 67 days after the election.

shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Jan 13, 2021

# ? Jan 13, 2021 22:32

Owlspiracy: Nov 4, 2020

i bought 'biden wins va' at .70 the night of the election.

# ? Jan 13, 2021 23:38

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

House and Senate control getting close to 50-50 now. This is pretty dumb imo

# ? Jan 13, 2021 23:40

Owlspiracy: Nov 4, 2020

mcmagic posted:

House and Senate control getting close to 50-50 now. This is pretty dumb imo

yep, it should be 10-90 D/D no

can still double your money if you buy right now though

# ? Jan 13, 2021 23:43

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Aruan posted:

yep, it should be 10-90 D/D no

can still double your money if you buy right now though

Why wouldn't you buy D/R Yes? It's like 3 cents less.

# ? Jan 13, 2021 23:45

Owlspiracy: Nov 4, 2020

mcmagic posted:

Why wouldn't you buy D/R Yes? It's like 3 cents less.

you buy both! (there is a scenario in which Padillia isn't sworn in but Ossoff/Warnock are, or a republican dies)

# ? Jan 13, 2021 23:48

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Aruan posted:

you buy both! (there is a scenario in which Padillia isn't sworn in but Ossoff/Warnock are, or a republican dies)

I already have a bunch in DR Yes at 29c.

# ? Jan 13, 2021 23:48

bus hustler: Mar 14, 2019

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary

this is a long play but I'm thinking of picking up "NO" shares as cheap as possible and watch the market for spikes.

# ? Jan 14, 2021 20:57

shame on an IGA: Apr 8, 2005

bus hustler posted:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary

this is a long play but I'm thinking of picking up "NO" shares as cheap as possible and watch the market for spikes.

uh

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/13/politics/andrew-yang-candidate-mayor-new-york/index.html

# ? Jan 14, 2021 21:29

bus hustler: Mar 14, 2019

Predictit is incredibly stupid and it's pretty easy to buy something at $.02-.03 and watch for panic spikes that let you double your money. Something between now and June is going to happen to impact the market, but it requires sort of plugging yourself into the market and watching the news like a hawk. A good example would be (just making this up) if Yang comes down with Covid, there's a good chance between now and June the opportunity to make 100% return will present itself.

It's entirely possible a scandal happens and he drops out, he gets appointed to something else, etc.

I wouldn't like dump thousands into a :smugdog:

play but I might buy some and try to grind it out. Yang in general is probably a good buy on the mayor race, as he has tons of national name recognition but no real base of support or political apparatus in NY. One of the other candidates is a well liked deeply connected city politico.

bus hustler fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Jan 14, 2021

# ? Jan 14, 2021 22:45

Strong Sauce: Jul 2, 2003; You know I am not really your father.

shame on an IGA posted:

uh

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/13/politics/andrew-yang-candidate-mayor-new-york/index.html

also: https://twitter.com/TaylorLorenz/status/1349539337973727233

HES GOT THE TIKTOK VOTE

# ? Jan 14, 2021 22:45

bus hustler: Mar 14, 2019

edit: actually this one has hosed up rules that make it resolve like poo poo

bus hustler fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Jan 14, 2021

# ? Jan 14, 2021 23:12

Strong Sauce: Jul 2, 2003; You know I am not really your father.

bus hustler posted:

edit: actually this one has hosed up rules that make it resolve like poo poo

saw the previous post... yeah i read the rules.. it seems like if trump pardons himself and puts his name on that site... that's valid per the rules, even if biden takes it down. but it sounds vague

# ? Jan 14, 2021 23:43

bus hustler: Mar 14, 2019

Yeah I read it twice and I think that's what it means, as long as it appears there even for a second before 2/15. I'm still not sure it would, I still like the "no" play there but it's more of a straight bet.

But PiT is definitely not a sportsbook its wildly irrational and prone to crazy swings and people betting on the home team.

# ? Jan 14, 2021 23:50

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# ? Apr 25, 2024 08:44

Owlspiracy: Nov 4, 2020

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29#comment-5227623544

I think this market is badly underpriced and has big upside in the 50 ranges.

# ? Jan 14, 2021 23:57

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > Poker Is Totally Rigged > PredictIt: Gambling on Politics

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