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You are the bomb for making the SPAC thread. Now I have two threads to read. Greatly appreciated. I've been long CCIV and FUSE and I'm loving them. I also have FTOC, GIK, GRSV, AACQ, CRHC, LNFA, FGNA, and HZON. Thanks for having my SPAC gang!
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Feb 2, 2021 06:01
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Newbie question: can you buy SPAC’s from regular brokers? (Eg: Fidelity?)
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Feb 2, 2021 06:09
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cosmin posted:Newbie question: can you buy SPAC’s from regular brokers? (Eg: Fidelity?) Fidelity is great for SPACs. Units, commons, and warrants with no cost to split units.
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Feb 2, 2021 06:12
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Tortilla Maker posted:What's this about Common, Warrants, and NAV? As in, why do Common and Warrants go separately? Warrents are like options where they are convertible to common stock. NAV is net asset value. It's essentially the value of the stock with no input from the markets. So if the NAV is $10, the value is $10. If its trading at $11, that is 1 premium to NAV, meaning that it is believed that the future value is expected to be higher than the current value.
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Feb 2, 2021 06:23
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A couple naive questions since I just heard about SPACs today, when the concept of this thread was discussed in the trading thread. OP says they really got popular in 2020, but how long has this concept been around? Are they fairly tried-and-true? This is probably dumb, since they obviously have a lot more backing and legitimacy, but the notion of so many new ones popping up, and their rising popularity with retail investors, seems really similar to what was happening with alt-coins a few years ago. Can someone explain some of the ways that these may be less of a gamble than that? I don't need to know the ways that alt-coins were dumb, but the rapid increase of these being formed is setting off alarms for me that I can't quite explain.
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Feb 2, 2021 06:36
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Thanks for the fresh thread and nice OP. SPAC chat has been my favorite thing to read about lately so I look forward to having a dedicated spot for it. Currently holding: GIK CCIV SNPR FUSE AACQ IPOD IPOF
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Feb 2, 2021 06:49
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Thanks for this thread and the great write up in the OP. I'm too risk averse to play with the day traders and meme crowd, though I did enjoy following the discussion over the last week. SPACs look to be the sweet spot for me as far as risk/reward and time scales for dicking around with my economic stimulus fun bux. I'm enjoying reading up on some of the recommendations while I wait for the ACH deposit to clear, hoping to pick a couple of good ones in various stages of the cycle to put my $2k into.
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Feb 2, 2021 07:02
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DELETE CASCADE posted:i bought a bunch of spcx but i'm not researching these crazy things individually gently caress that How well does SPCX track the thread's favorites? I bought some SPACs and am in SPCX with calls but it takes some  and am considering just buying and holding SPCX once I close the SPAC positions.
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Feb 2, 2021 07:23
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karoshi posted:How well does SPCX track the thread's favorites? I bought some SPACs and am in SPCX with calls but it takes some Pretty well, their number one holding is CCIV. Looking at an ETFs holdings is a good way to get an idea of which spacs might have legs https://www.spcxetf.com/spcx-holdings/
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Feb 2, 2021 07:27
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I got in CCIV at $18.04 but sold $20 covered calls for $2.55 so I definitely left a lot of money on the table there. FTOC has already done well for me, and ACEV, AJAX, and GNRS haven't been doing much but I'm at least breaking even on those. Also GoGoGadgetChris posted:Should've just renamed an existing thread
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Feb 2, 2021 07:46
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Do people have an exit strategy for SPACs? Just cut and run when you get a 20% gain? Wait for just before the merger? Keep an eye out for certain types on news/rumours? I'm a chronic bag holder and exit strategies have never really been something I thought much about but if holding these things through a merger is bad I probably should have something in mind when I buy some.
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Feb 2, 2021 08:48
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drat, I missed the first page I'm in love with Chamath so I'm deep IPOD and IPOF. Made a solid profit on IPOC and IPOE run-up already.
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Feb 2, 2021 09:12
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Thanks for the SPAC thread. I will not post much, but I look forward to getting smarter. After eyeing the stock market and learning on the periphery for a very long time and hemming and hawing about whether to enter I finally bit the bullets and entered the stock market with some play money due to the GME thing. Saw the talk about the Spacs and threw some money there already as well so this thread should be interesting. And is it me, or do all spacs have silly names?
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Feb 2, 2021 09:41
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I got 1/3rd of my portfolio into CCIV warrants at $5.90 a few weeks ago, maybe two days after the rumour leaked and I felt comfortable enough with the DD to make a speculative play. It’s already at about a 90% profit and I’m watching it very closely. Feeling pretty good about it still. If pops and levels off I’ll be selling to get into a NAV play. If it pops and keeps going I’ll let it ride for a while. If the rumours aren’t true then oops, I’ll be glad I didn’t YOLO into it. The other 2/3rds of my portfolio is in FUSE warrants at $2.84. Considering Fusion just applied for a second SPAC this one is a no brainer. If either of these popped I’d be looking at PIPP, AACQ, LMAOU, ACEV, FGNA. This is not financial advice, do your own research. 
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Feb 2, 2021 10:48
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4/20 NEVER FORGET posted:I'm in love with Chamath hosed up, if true
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Feb 2, 2021 11:28
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pseudorandom posted:A couple naive questions since I just heard about SPACs today, when the concept of this thread was discussed in the trading thread. SPACs have been a Thing for over a decade, but before 2020 there would be between 20-40 total SPACs per year. As more SPACs successfully come to market, it attracts more private companies. As more SPACs increase in price, they attract more retail investors. So the cycle grows with the public's familiarity and financial success.
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Feb 2, 2021 13:15
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I'm here with FTOC, and looking at my SPAC list I want to roll some of my spacebux into some near-NAV and under 11, probably CRHC, SEAH, and ??? mystery third option ???. Hard congrats to all CCIV holders here as well
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Feb 2, 2021 14:10
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thoughts on cciv's push yesterday? im still holding too many feb $30 calls for comfort so if this is going to be the new floor or dip back down im thinking it might be a good time to exit those and consolidate with my march calls wondering if its insider news or just gme/amc gains dumping back in plus excitement from thcb
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Feb 2, 2021 15:09
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The price jumped on another tenuous bread crumb and nothing's actually changed. I'm not moving a muscle until we get a DA or the talks are officially called off. All up/down price movement is just noise until something actually happens. The price bump is a nice cushion for future bleeding though.
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Feb 2, 2021 15:12
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What would you all value ASPL at? They just announced they're merging with Wheels Up. It's a play on wealth inequality (private jet rentals). https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wheels-up-spac-merger-10-things-to-know-about-the-private-aviation-startup-and-aspl-stock https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/wheels-up-spac-opens-door-to-investor-bets-on-private-flying https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2021/02/01/wheels-up-announces-spac-based-ipo-valued-at-21-billion/?sh=789aa1d7120a https://www.streetinsider.com/Corpo...9/17891550.html I'm not really a SPAC guy so don't know how to value the deal itself and would like a little more insight than my current personal opinion of "yeah Wheels Up will probably have revenue growth".
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Feb 2, 2021 15:19
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thats not candy posted:thoughts on cciv's push yesterday? im still holding too many feb $30 calls for comfort so if this is going to be the new floor or dip back down im thinking it might be a good time to exit those and consolidate with my march calls Feb calls? I'd roll them out you want time left in the option to take advantage of the IV from the sudden increase in interest when you sell the call. If the deal happens this week you are probably good too much longer and people will start to think of them as just buying CCIV and not buying Lucid. I'm assuming monthly Feb calls since you didn't give a specify a date.
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Feb 2, 2021 15:22
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pixaal posted:Feb calls? I'd roll them out you want time left in the option to take advantage of the IV from the sudden increase in interest when you sell the call. If the deal happens this week you are probably good too much longer and people will start to think of them as just buying CCIV and not buying Lucid. I'm assuming monthly Feb calls since you didn't give a specify a date. ya feb 19 i rolled 2/3rds of them over to march 19 a few weeks ago but its probably a good time to do the rest now on this mornings spike. possible i guess theres a da in the next few weeks but seems like a lot less risk to push the calls to march
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Feb 2, 2021 15:29
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sold them all above $5, nice 100% profit. i think its going to dip throughout the day so didnt bother rolling over and i can pick up more march after theres a new floor. feels better to be not beholden to a da over the next two weeks though
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Feb 2, 2021 15:47
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lol maybe that was a premature sell cause cciv looks like it wants to break 30 today. at least i still have my existing march calls
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Feb 2, 2021 16:17
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FistEnergy posted:My personal investment strategy is to buy SPAC Commons from experienced teams when below below $12, and preferably below $11. I also prefer SPACs that are at least 6 months into their life cycle, because it means they've been around long enough to realistically have feelers out to potential targets or possibly ongoing talks. With the major SPAC boom of the past 6 months, I am mentally shortening this number down towards 3 months. Things have begun moving significantly faster. Investing in a SPAC is a balancing act. You want to get in early enough to get a good price that is close enough to NAV to protect you, but not so early that your money is going to be sitting idle for 6-12 months. This is where forum chatter and looking at trading volume can provide clues. I would much rather be too early at a low price, than too late and forced to follow the wave with a riskier cost basis. If I see a SPAC from a reputable team with an LOI/DA below $11, I'll invest almost no matter who the target is, their industry, or how the merger has been viewed by the market to that point. A SPAC can gap up on the LOI, the DA, the announcement of a merger vote date, or during the ramp up to the merger itself. My strategy is to ride as many low-risk price catalyst waves as possible. It's often difficult to predict how a certain SPAC or merger partner will be received by the public, so I like to spread my portfolio around a variety of high quality SPACs between 10.50 and 12.00. I rarely chase announced targets or buy in above $12 due to the increased risk. My only recent exception to this is CCIV, where I started with a core position at 10.04 and threw in a lot more at 13.00 once it was reported that they were in talks with Lucid Motors. Thanks (again) for this. Your strategy mirrors what I am looking for; maximizing gains while preserving the bulk of my principle in the event the team fails to deliver. I spent too many hours last night reading through Spac Daddy's content on this and ended up with: - 50 common LCY @ $10.50 - 50 common ACEV @ $10.90 - 50 common PHIC at $10.54 The first two have executed DA's, the third is early stage but headed up by an ex-CEO of Pfizer which seems pretty safe for a therapeutics play. I am also holding 90 common CCIV, @ $23.48, which was in retrospect completely stupid (although maybe not because I now know about SPACS?). I may reduce my exposure on that a bit today and roll the proceeds into some earlier-stage picks. Follow-on questions that I came up with last night... How do you and others who treat these as short-to-mid-term positions keep track of them? I use Vanguard as my broker, and they don't exactly have the best UI. Is there a preferred service that you can sign up to get alerts generated when things like merger votes are scheduled?
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Feb 2, 2021 16:33
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I update my own spreadsheet as each one progresses, and add new tickers as I find ones that meet my criteria. Since I buy low, I usually don't feel the need to compulsively check my positions. (CCIV excluded, I am watching that like a hawk) I set price alerts for my positions, usually $13 or $14, so when a catalyst occurs I am notified and I can gauge the reaction and potentially increase or sell the position. For positions significantly above NAV - for me CCIV PSTH GIK NPA - I have price alerts set roughly 10% below the current price so I can log in and assess what the heck is going on. In my experience, setting Stop Loss orders on SPACs is usually a bad idea. They can lose 10 or 15% in a day and immediately pop back up. Sometimes based on material news or the lack of news, sometimes just due to a sector rotation out of SPACs. This is doubly true for Warrants. Once I determine a ticker is worth buying, I stick with my conviction through the catalysts of the SPAC life cycle unless significant material news changes my opinion.
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Feb 2, 2021 17:16
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Good OP, thanks for thread. Like the SPAC game, even if I held (and am still holding hoping for some kind of rally) HYLN. HYLN is a good example of getting killed after the merger. Have some FTOC too.
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Feb 2, 2021 17:37
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SPACs are a lot of fun for play money gambling. My strategy is to only buy SPAC units that are <$11. I will then sell the commons as soon as they hit a big bump and potentially let the warrants ride depending on rumors. Just a note that retail investors are just along for the ride on these. These are structured to reward inside investors as well as the management team. The management team will be incentivized to close any deal (not necessarily the best deal) so that they can get their reward for executing a merger. SPACs (also called blank check companies) have a bad reputation because many were scams in the 1980s. They're better now but my buddy that works in M&A big law says that they're great for private equity but suck for retail investors. So, buy near NAV and sell the news. You risk holding the bag if you stick around through the merger.
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Feb 2, 2021 18:26
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Oh hello there FPAC warrants! Any idea why ACAC popped this morning over $13 then quickly bled back close to previous close?
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Feb 2, 2021 18:30
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pmchem posted:What would you all value ASPL at? I don't think you'll get a lot of long term analysis in this thread, almost everyone is focused on IPO to merger date, beyond doesn't matter. What is driving anything over $15 is growth hype because of some new technology or a hot market. "Lucid is the next TSLA." "Payoneer is the next Paypal." "w33d." I don't see anything in ASPL other than "we are going to keep doing private jets, but in more countries". I suspect it will hang out near where it is until merger unless they announce they figured out solar powered private jets.
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Feb 2, 2021 18:35
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laxbro posted:...my buddy that works in M&A big law says that they're great for private equity but suck for retail investors. Is the "suck for retail investors" in part because retail investors generally don't sell on the news / prior to the merger?
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Feb 2, 2021 18:44
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laxbro posted:SPACs are a lot of fun for play money gambling. My strategy is to only buy SPAC units that are <$11. I will then sell the commons as soon as they hit a big bump and potentially let the warrants ride depending on rumors. Yep. They usually get a 20% promote as part of the merger. Sell before merger. Buy back in later if you like the company.
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Feb 2, 2021 18:46
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skybolt_1 posted:Is the "suck for retail investors" in part because retail investors generally don't sell on the news / prior to the merger? https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/19/a-sober-look-at-spacs/ Harvard Law posted:In order to analyze who bears the cost of SPAC dilution, we look at post-merger price performance. Table 3 presents three-, six-, and twelve-month post-merger returns for SPACs that merged between January 2019 and June 2020. By three months following a SPAC’s merger, median returns were negative 14.5% and median returns in excess of the Russell 2000 or the IPO index were even lower. Six-month returns were worse and twelve-month returns (for those SPACs with that much post-merger performance history) are worse still. A reasonable inference is that targets negotiated prices or share exchanges based on the cash value of SPAC shares, and that SPAC shareholders bore the cost of SPACs’ dilution. Harvard Law posted:SPACs with high quality sponsors tend to do better than other SPACs in two respects. First, their dilution is lower—although most still had $7 or less in cash per $10 share. Second, they produced higher six-month post-merger returns for SPAC shareholders—though many still lost value. The lower dilution is primarily due to fewer redemptions. The higher returns are presumably a function of value these sponsors created by promising to remain engaged in the post-merger company, or perhaps their ability to drive a harder bargain with targets.
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Feb 2, 2021 18:51
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Edit : I'm dumb
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Feb 2, 2021 18:54
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Did I miss the CCIV train? Is it stupid to buy in now?
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Feb 2, 2021 18:55
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Sell before merger, kids. Don't baghold just because you like the company. Look at the /Hyliion subreddit, and despair. Buy in 2-3 months post-merger if you believe in the company. skybolt_1 posted:Ok, so then basically what everyone is saying - gtfo before merger - is what separates the speculators from the retail bagholders. 
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Feb 2, 2021 18:55
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Is there a good way to stay informed when mergers are announced, or is it a matter of just following the news/webpages of every holding you own?
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Feb 2, 2021 19:36
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ffs cciv settle down. upset i took profit this morning. made some good day trade profit throughout the day though, these swings are nuts thats not candy fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Feb 2, 2021 |
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Feb 2, 2021 20:01
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Pilfered Pallbearers posted:Did I miss the CCIV train? Is it stupid to buy in now? Rip. I asked this and stepped away, and it jumped 3 points since then. Edit Jesus another. CCIV is loving flying. I feel it’s so high to buy in though. Pilfered Pallbearers fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Feb 2, 2021 |
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Feb 2, 2021 20:13
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CCIV jumps for no reason, like today, then jumps again, for no reason.
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Feb 2, 2021 20:19
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