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SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


WampaLord posted:

... because you need to PROVE to me that all the business people got together and decided that bad things should happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot

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Fleetwood
Mar 26, 2010


biggest hochul head in china

gimme the GOD drat candy posted:

corporations are people and they don't have lungs so people don't have lungs.

the next step should be corporations running for office

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007
6,305 pages of succ. God drat the democrats

In Training
Jun 28, 2008

Best Friends posted:

there’d be more covid aid, more subsidies for vaccination, and also dems would still be loudly pretending that they opposed trumps immigration policies and the destruction of the post office

he also might assassinate more people cause the generals left that option on the PowerPoint

probably less people dead from COVID too just bc trump would probably get some element of his base to fall in line with taking the big, beautiful Trump vaccine.

eviltastic
Feb 8, 2004

Fan of Britches

Deadly Ham Sandwich posted:

It was like that a few days ago. The tweet is an edit.

People like to rag on Nate for his 2016 election prediction, but he was the only statistic guy giving Trump any sort of chance at winning. He got a lot of hate from Dems for it while all the copycats were predicting a 99% chance of Hillary winning. I think Princeton's policy center made a prediction like that too? Or Harvard.

Nate isn't a pollster. He's just aggregating the polls, which are notoriously poo poo.

Sam Wang, the 99% guy from Princeton, wasn't copying Silver's methodology. He may have wound up eating a bug, but near the big day, he was also speculating about how his model might be lowballing Trump's chances and even gave an interesting breakdown of why it was doing different things from Silver's. When you dig into why Silver's model was giving Trump a better chance, there were some things that played into it where he was more right (cross-correlation of polling error, iirc), and some where he essentially got the overall result right for the wrong reasons (underconfidence in calling states for Clinton that Clinton actually won).

Like, he also gave Trump a better than one in six chance to win New Mexico, where Hilllary won by more than eight points. His model didn't actually perform much better than Wang's, even if the overall chance he gave Trump was higher.

eviltastic has issued a correction as of 19:34 on Jun 30, 2022

Poco
Jul 17, 2005

....I am a Tariff Man

So glad these people are allowed to scold us. Really glad. VOTE

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002

ex post facho posted:

6,305 pages of succ. God drat the democrats

And that's just this iteration of the thread!

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

BornAPoorBlkChild posted:

not linking to the actual video cuz its super hosed up so I'll just link to one of the replies


https://twitter.com/HenryDdungu5/status/1542033177862184961?t=DQod4urHmZibHicunhExUw&s=19

vleykin_climate_change.txt going along as expected :(

Amp
Sep 10, 2010

:11tea::bubblewoop::agesilaus::megaman::yoshi::squawk::supaburn::iit::spooky::axe::honked::shroom::smugdog::sg::pkmnwhy::parrot::screamy::tubular::corsair::sanix::yeeclaw::hayter::flip::redflag:

Poco posted:

So glad these people are allowed to scold us. Really glad. VOTE

You can just ignore their dumb loving takes they don't matter just laugh at them

skipmyseashells
Nov 14, 2020
if there was video of 50 Ukrainians getting beaten to death on camera by Russian police america would already be invading

Vim Fuego
Jun 1, 2000

I LITERALLY SLEEP IN A RACING CAR. DO YOU?
p.s. ask me about my subscription mattress
Ultra Carp

Only registered members can see post attachments!

eviltastic
Feb 8, 2004

Fan of Britches

Sydin posted:

The Huff Post lady was literally all caps screaming at Nate over twitter days before the election for "doomsaying" with his election predictions. At the same time the prediction Huff Post had up on their site was no joke 100/0 Hillary/Trump.

Yeah in terms of model performance, Huffpo's was so bad it actually wound up closer to "literally assume it turns out just like 2012, that's the model" than it did to most of the other prediction outfits.

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

In Training posted:

probably less people dead from COVID too just bc trump would probably get some element of his base to fall in line with taking the big, beautiful Trump vaccine.

also the blue states wouldn’t have dropped their few (inadequate) covid measures, which they only imposed because “gently caress trump”.

as soon as he went away, so did the mask mandates

galenanorth
May 19, 2016

"Teachers come from 'dumbest parts of dumbest colleges,' Tenn. governor's education advisor tells him" https://www.newschannel5.com/news/n...visor-tells-him

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

It’s pretty simple. Democrats need to win more Senate seats while retaining the House. The “tightness” give Manchin an effective veto.

Meanwhile can’t ignore state politics. Wisconsin’s Republican Supreme Court just sabotaged their Democratic governor.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Ytlaya posted:

The "this is stale/we've already been over this" stuff is always extremely funny, because it couldn't be more obvious that they're just really irritated that people keep repeating stuff they don't want to hear.

but it's not an echo chamber

whatever you do don't call it an echo chamber or a neo-lib safe space

LGD
Sep 25, 2004

fun thread:

https://twitter.com/GravitysRa1nbow/status/1541982214736551938?s=20&t=Xo0kc_PHw_bHk1Fyk1zA7g
https://twitter.com/GravitysRa1nbow/status/1542153564625289220?s=20&t=Xo0kc_PHw_bHk1Fyk1zA7g
https://twitter.com/DClocalgal/status/1542500440721481730?s=20&t=Xo0kc_PHw_bHk1Fyk1zA7g

also:
https://medium.com/@dkreiss/ivy-league-democrats-and-state-school-republicans-8941960686d2

quote:

Taken together, an astonishing 20% of all hiring by Democratic campaigns comes from just seven schools: Harvard (5% of Democratic hiring), Stanford (3%), NYU (3%), UC Berkeley (3%), Georgetown (2%), Columbia (2%), and Yale (2%). In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign hired 16% of its staffers from just four schools: Harvard (6%), Stanford (4%), NYU (3%), and Georgetown (3%).

quote:

A very different picture emerges on the other side of the aisle. The top three Republican schools are state public institutions: University of Texas, Austin (3%), Ohio State University (2%), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (1%). The rest of the schools in the Republican top twenty are a mix of public and private institutions, including state schools such as George Mason (2%), the University of Alabama (2%), and Missouri State University (1%) and Brigham Young (2%).

Notably, our data indicate that only 13% of Republican staffers active during the 2016 cycle graduated from an elite, private university. Republican presidential campaigns predominately hired staffers from public universities such as the University of Texas, Austin (9%), University of Wisconsin (3%), and the University of Oklahoma (3%), as well as private schools such as Syracuse (7%) and Baylor University (3%).

LGD has issued a correction as of 20:24 on Jun 30, 2022

Toph Bei Fong
Feb 29, 2008



WampaLord posted:

It's also why any sort of response along the lines of "well, yeah, capitalism is a broken system that leads to broken outcomes like this one" is accused of being a conspiracy theorist because you need to PROVE to me that all the business people got together and decided that bad things should happen.

"The Phoebus Cartel is just one of many examples of industry collusion working to make lives worse and products less efficient to maximize profit."

"Oh, but that was a hundred years ago. Surely such things don't happen now..."

"Well actually, if you look at the behavior of Disney, Amazon, and Microsoft, among others, you'll see a pattern of..."

"Look, it's not everywhere all at once. My vote matters and affects things."

Squashy
Dec 24, 2005

150cc of psilocybinic power

galenanorth posted:

"Teachers come from 'dumbest parts of dumbest colleges,' Tenn. governor's education advisor tells him" https://www.newschannel5.com/news/n...visor-tells-him

Oh man, he's doing everything he can to associate Public School teachers with "Groomers" isn't he?

"Do they ever talk about anything except what they are going to do to these kids?"

gently caress, that's dark

Squashy has issued a correction as of 20:42 on Jun 30, 2022

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

That affair.
"The defendant in this case wanted to murder six people whom he blamed for his divorce and for the loss of custody of his child. He hired and paid hitmen.
And he told the hitmen to burn the six intended victims alive. So that he would have a good alibi, the defendant planned to be in Po-land when the murders occurred.
It turned out, however, that the would-be hitmen were undercover law enforcement officers. So the defendant was arrested and federally charged with murder for hire and a firearms violation.
The United States then negotiated a plea deal with the defendant. The plea agreement was unconditional. Among other things, the defendant waived any right to challenge his murder-for-hire and firearms convictions.
Consistent with that plea agreement, the defendant was sentenced to almost 18 years of imprisonment."
Strong "rich republican whose friends can pay for a drunken judge debts" vibes from that guy.

Jay-V
Nov 8, 2009

Interesting point, so maybe the important thing is to gain power and then use it :thunk:

Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

I saw an ad for Beyonce's new album and it reminded me that khive stole their name from beyhive

just lmao

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

Grey Fox posted:

I saw an ad for Beyonce's new album and it reminded me that khive stole their name from beyhive

just lmao

wait is bey pronounced "bee" and not "bay"?

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Trabisnikof posted:

I have an idea. Liberal blue states should all pass laws where private citizens can file suits against coal-fired power plants for befouling our air.

I mean, if they let the Texas "abortion bounty" law stand, that's just what this is, right? And unlike with that law, at least these polluters actually did negatively impact our quality of life directly.


yeah, the republicans use their campaign apparatus as a farm system, for democrats the elite private universities are the farm system

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Zerg Mans posted:

wait is bey pronounced "bee" and not "bay"?

no it is prounounced bay

The kamala people stole it because bay rhymes with the phonetic pronunciation of the letter k

galenanorth
May 19, 2016

Squashy posted:

Oh man, he's doing everything she can to associate Public School teachers with "Groomers" isn't he?

"Do they ever talk about anything except what they are going to do to these kids?"

gently caress, that's dark

yeah, I was thinking that. Usually the verb is "inspire" but clearly Larry Arnn is insinuating all public school teachers are pedos, though if asked to be explicit he'd use the verb "brainwash", i.e. their usage of "groom"

papa horny michael
Aug 18, 2009

by Pragmatica
It's up to you to individually take action

As a politician, aoc couldn't possibly do more than vote with while crying

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1542550572359983105?t=mZcXc4LFH9oyJz04QQJmOg&s=19

It would be funny if she was formally reprimanded for endorsing rotating villain theory

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

Yinlock posted:

dems are only there to stop the left, they're not prepared for things like governing

Case in point
https://twitter.com/ProudSocialist/status/1542585001413382152?t=x3LOk7T6WepbtUx8zjpQYQ&s=19

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

lol, and further, lmao

Noob Saibot
Jan 29, 2020

by Fluffdaddy
When Obama was president wasn’t the filibuster rule that you had to have 60 votes? Now it’s 51?

spacetoaster
Feb 10, 2014

Listening to these Jan 6th highlights.

Trump was fully supporting the people marching, armed, on the capitol? And was so desperate to be there leading them from the front that he assaulted people and fought with a secret service agent over control of a vehicle?

Are they trying to make us all like the guy?

redneck nazgul
Apr 25, 2013

Noob Saibot posted:

When Obama was president wasn’t the filibuster rule that you had to have 60 votes? Now it’s 51?

you need 60 votes to pass a cloture vote to end a filibuster

however, you need 51 votes to start a cloture vote

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
lol did the Supreme Court just give state legislators the ability to implement Jim Crow again if they felt like it?! loooll

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

Al-Saqr posted:

lol did the Supreme Court just give state legislators the ability to implement Jim Crow again if they felt like it?! loooll

it looks like it yeah

Mayor Dave
Feb 20, 2009

Bernie the Snow Clown

Al-Saqr posted:

lol did the Supreme Court just give state legislators the ability to implement Jim Crow again if they felt like it?! loooll

Yeah it owns

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Azathoth posted:

it looks like it yeah

cool cool great shithole country cool

spacemang_spliff
Nov 29, 2014

wide pickle
wait I thought that wasn't until next year when they do the NC case

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

spacetoaster posted:

Listening to these Jan 6th highlights.

Trump was fully supporting the people marching, armed, on the capitol? And was so desperate to be there leading them from the front that he assaulted people and fought with a secret service agent over control of a vehicle?

Are they trying to make us all like the guy?

All of that depends on taking the worst possible reading of the situation which comes off as extremely dishonest the more convoluted it is and it doesn't translate to a slam dunk legal decision

Trump was mad his crowd was small and told them to stop sending people away. "Everyone is getting turned away at the metal detectors? Remove them. They aren't going to hurt me."

Becomes, in the liberal brain...

"I do not have enough foot soldiers for my armed coup. I need the metal detectors removed so that all of the weaponry that never presented itself is smuggled through security. When i say they wont hurt me what I am implying is a direct knowledge and implicit desire for them to harm others with all of this weaponry"

Some massive disappointment is coming when Mueller 2 wraps up.

MassTran
Feb 27, 2015

Bless This Mess

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Happy Noodle Boy
Jul 3, 2002


Al-Saqr posted:

lol did the Supreme Court just give state legislators the ability to implement Jim Crow again if they felt like it?! loooll

they chose the case they’ll be hearing/making a decision next year

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