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Please send Eichel to Pittsburgh thanks.
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Mar 1, 2021 19:31
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Oh we're in for a maybe Flyers/Pens gong show game already? Joy.
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Mar 1, 2021 22:46
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Zaroff posted:Assuming they bump Malkin into Crosby’s slot with Guentzel and Rust, I wonder whether this will improve anything? That line was really strong last season while Crosby was injured... Basically whichever line has had Rust this year has been the good one 5v5. Sullivan never swapped Guentzel with Zucker which I thought would have been a kind of obvious thing to try but I'm a moron so there's that.
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Mar 2, 2021 22:59
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DJExile posted:psssssssst Yeah but that doesn't answer the question
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Mar 3, 2021 03:38
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ThinkTank posted:Speaking of Ovie, what's up with him this year? He's on a 30 goal pace (over 82 games). Just a slow start combined with his covid protocol thing or is he not his usual self? Shooting 10% vs 13-15 as well.
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Mar 4, 2021 19:19
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Nhl Channel saying Sid is in tonight so when everyone gets covid absolutely not his fault.
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Mar 4, 2021 23:56
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The Penguins blow rear end in a top hat. Absolutely hosed themselves tonight after a hilarious first 4 minutes. The team needs changes and fast especially on the backend. Depth scoring of any kind would be nice.
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Mar 5, 2021 03:34
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Ginette Reno posted:They're more just thoroughly mediocre. They'll barely make the playoffs or barely miss. If they make it, they'll be out in the first round unless Jarry gets red hot. They have too many hugely flawed players especially on the backend.
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Mar 5, 2021 03:35
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The Pens are extremely spent and hoping their stars can bail them out as they have for the last decade plus and it absolutely isn't going to happen anymore. Unfortunately GM JR did a poo poo as gently caress job preparing for that so now it's this mess. Matheson for Hornqvist is and was awful. Getting rid of Matheson is going to be messy. Marino's contract not looking better.
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Mar 5, 2021 03:49
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Eric the Mauve posted:Brian Burke sighs heavily and starts flipping through his rolodex for Randy Carlyle's number Going to reunite the Mike Blabcock rehabilitation tour with Sid and it's going to blow chunks.
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Mar 5, 2021 18:05
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Staring at Penguins spreadsheets and I wish I was smarter or had the tools to try and piece together what my brain thinks might be going on and what is. So unfortunately trying to piece this together it helps to write it down, read it, and then re-read it and then post to see if I'm missing something or I'll just delete this post when I end up where I started, which is with gently caress all. Starting with the game last night: Malkin is a -1 with 2 GF and 3 GA all 5v5 with 1 assist. On the season Malkin is now a -8 on the year 14 points of which 11 are evens. When looking at the pairings last night on a prompting by Good Soldier Svejk when talking about the Marino/Pettersson pairing...a big glaring 3 GA for Marino and Malkin on the ice together pops out. So what I'm working through is who is bringing whom down and how much of it is system/coaching personnel decisions. Our focus is on this particular triangle of players: 1. Malkin 2. Marino and 3. Matheson. Evgeni 'Geno' Malkin currently sports a 53% corsi for, 49.5% shots for, 41% Goals for, 47.5% xGF, and 50/50 regular chance splits with a 40/60 High Danger Split (Natural Stat Numbers). Hockey-Ref places Geno at a 38/62 xGF and Evolving puts him at 45% xGF. Outside his rookie season this is the first season Malkin has not been on the + side of expected outcomes. Looking at linemates Geno has spent 2/3rds of his ice time with Jason Zucker who has also not exactly lit the world afire this year. Flanking these two has been Rust and Kappenen along with McCann rotating onto the wing with Zucker going down. Without massively getting into Zucker with this particular novel all I can say is Zucker currently an anchor and he was only slightly better the year prior. The other 2 linemates in Kap and McCann have better numbers away from Malkin than with him. Going with straight across the board 'chemistry' bullshit Blueger/McCann/Kapanen looks like they all accentuate each other and have both good on ice and expected results. SO BACK TO GENO....is Zucker to blame? Not sure, but he certainly isn't helping. Our next look is at Mike Matheson. 48% shorts for, 47% xGF , and 47% actual GF. Hocke-Ref has him at a 40% xGF and Evolving as it does puts him between the 2 with 45% xGF. Mike's ice time is split pretty evenly across the forwards with Aston-Reese and Geno both having the largest share. With Matheson on the ice at 5v5 the Pens have scored 12 and given up 13. With Geno on the ice Matheson craters to a 33% GF player. 25% GF with Zucker. His expecteds across the board with the entire forward core aren't great either. Matheson only positive xG numbers are with Rust, Guentzel, Sid, and Malkin?!?! The gently caress. Yup per evolving Geno and his 45% xGF and Matheson's 45% xGF when combined with Evolving's model becomes 52% expected GF. What in the gently caress? Interestingly Matheson + Rust is a huge jump in xG and Guentzel is the same 55% with or without Mike. Sid craters from 56% xG to 50/50. THAT BRINGS US TO MIKE MARINO. Matheson has played 81% of his 5 on 5 ice time with Mike Marino. To date no Penguins skater has played as much as Marino. Breaking things down to TOI/GP Marino is 2nd with 23:25 behind Letang's 24:18. Dumoulin is the TOI/GP at evens with Marino right behind and Matheson very shortly after. Flat out this year Marino has sucked. 49% Corsi for, 46% shots for, 47% GF, xGF of 43%, and 47% chance for and 40/60 high danger for by Natural Stats count. 34% xGF from Hockey-Ref and 43% from Evolving. On the backend Marino has spent 52% of his 5v5 time with Matheson and most of the rest with Ceci or Pettersson followed by single games with Letang, PoJ, and Ruhd. We've gone a bit over Matheson up there so the big thing here is the only positive actual on ice outcomes with Marino are when he's paired with Ceci and Ruhd. Everyone else has significantly worse outcomes when paired with Marino. This is true of all the forwards except Rust and McCann. Marino is a drag on both Sid and Guentzel to the point where they go from 56% xGF to 50/50 players. Now I've written all this poo poo and spun it around in my head for a bit. I have some thoughts. The acquisition of Jason Zucker by GM JR did not help this team. Going back to last year the only player Zucker had positive xG when paired with was Patrick Hornqvist up top and interestingly Marino, Pettersson, Dumo, and Schultz all had their real (minus Schultz) and expected numbers jump with Zucker. Most of Zucker's time was with Sid/Simon/Sheary though. Fast forward to what I originally was asking. The Malkin performances. In the playoffs Malkin and Zucker were put together with Rust and then Hornqvist. xG with Rust is very good. With Hornqvist it's bad. Hornqvist's fancies in the bubble are real bad. This is probably what GM JR judged and executed him on. Unlike the regular season backing; Zucker and Malkin's expecteds crater when on the ice with the Marino/Pettersson pairing. Every other pairing (excpet JMFJ) has great expecteds. This leaves me with a combination of conclusions so this is the tl;dr shut the gently caress up Rex! Malkin has slowed way down. Malkin + Zucker does not work. Malkin + Zucker + Marino is an absolute disaster. Geno is a -5 at 5v5 and 4 of those are with Marino backing him up. Matheson/PoJ tie with -3 there and with the forwards all splitting a bunch. John Marino is the biggest problem on the Penguins back end. The only player he actually drags down more than Matheson is PoJ. This is a huge loving problem with Marino stepping into a Mike Matheson contract. How do the Penguins solve this? I honestly don't loving know. I think you unfortunately have to start with Sullivan. Which sucks. GM JR did him no favors in assembling this roster acquiring forwards that do not appear to compliment the players they are going to be playing with. His system of dropping the center to below the goal line to help the defenseman is continuing to leave the slot way too open and that is what is costing the Penguins goals constantly now. They do not have the footspeed to come back win a battle and then move as a unit in the breakout. This leads to turnovers and high chance opportunities within the 'house' area which Jarry has at least made a first save on lately, but look at last night. Multiple free rebound opportunities for the Flyers because of positioning and system. With a bit more structure and a slightly more conservative d zone scheme that can lead to a functional breakout the team could rebound. However, from a players standpoint the issues could potentially be addressed, but significantly unlikely to be anything more than shuffling deck chairs at this point. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 21:04 on Mar 5, 2021 |
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Mar 5, 2021 20:59
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THE MACHO MAN posted:Tom Wilson is an honorable and noble man I hope he mates with a woodchipper.
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Mar 6, 2021 03:00
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Eric the Mauve posted:I think you're joining most Penguins fans, myself very much included, in trying to talk yourself out of the obvious conclusions the numbers and eye test both point to: that Geno is toast, and that Marino is a bottom pairing guy that had a real good rookie year and the team leapt to what turned out to be an erroneous conclusion that he was a top pairing guy. Ginette Reno posted:I think you guys are freaking out just a lil bit by claiming Malkin is toast. He's getting old and maybe he is about to enter a severe decline but it's also been what like 20 games or whatever in a weirdo covid season. And he was one of the best players in the league just last year. Jhet posted:Sure, so could Jason Zucker. But they’re not, so I’m not sure it’s only alarmism. They’re not performing right now, and that’s a fair conclusion. You can’t entirely predict the future with stats, but you can temper your expectations. Right now, Malkin isn’t looking like he’s going to have a great season, and he’s welcome to change every one’s opinion. Good Soldier Svejk posted:Another thing worth noting re: Malkin is that he did say he didn't get the chance to train like he normally would  . If this excuse is true....what makes us think he'll be back next year any better? fawning deference posted:I'm going to disagree and say that the probabilities of explosive output are significantly different. Malkin's track record is just a smidge better than Jason Zucker's.  ) not unless you're sticking him on the 1st PP and with Sid and Guentzel or Rust. Malkin could but I think there are external circumstances to it that are likely the mitigating factor. Eric the Mauve posted:Have you guys been watching Malkin play? It's bad. It's real bad. He has never had a 20 game stretch anywhere close to being close to as bad as this, not even during the Mike Johnston era (+ extension stuff) Ginette Reno posted:His underlying stats have been kinda bad which is concerning but I mean shortened covid season...not gonna write off a first ballot hall of fame player after just one bad half season. Or even a bad full one. The Penguins top 6 wingers loving suck and there's only 2 good ones. Guentzel and Rust. Regardless of who you've plugged these 2 with they have produced positive outcomes. That includes all of the good and bad defenseman and wingers. It's kind of insane honestly. That isn't to say Zucker is bad....he just has not fit. Same with A Galy. Here lies Phil though....run the gently caress out because he looked 'weak' defensively oh woops it's all JMFJ. Which is hilarious 'cause last year with JMFJ Sid was a 35% xGF player vs Malkin somehow dragging JMFJ to 55.5% xGF. The actual results are hilarious too. Sid with JMFJ is a 33% and a -6 (6 for 12 against 5v5) and Geno somehow was 66% actual GF rate with JMFJ on the ice (20 for and 10 against). NEW CONCLUSION: Geno doesn't give a gently caress because he's tired of dragging around too many poo poo rear end players and Sullivan loving him over for Sid to get all the best of the best on the team. Bonus points if it is actually true Sid pushed for JMFJ to be signed and then all of sudden bought out because he's loving over Sid. That would own.
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Mar 6, 2021 04:13
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Eric the Mauve posted:Dunno about all that in particular but I agree it's possible Malkin is just over Pittsburgh and doesn't give a poo poo. I think I'm coming around to he doesn't give a gently caress 'cause GM JR definitely did not give a gently caress about players, their contracts, and how they felt about anything, in addition to, constantly getting stuck with sub-standard garbage.
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Mar 6, 2021 04:42
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Cartoon Man posted:Almost to the midpoint at 28 games, the top four are starting to pull away from the pack. Pittsburgh is the team to keep an eye on, especially if they get a mid season coaching change. We all know what happened the last time they did that. The Pens will might shoot up the standings either way. Caps have played Buffalo 5 times while Philly and NYI 4 each. Pens and Boston 0. Same for the Devils where it's 3 a piece other then Philly with 2. So there are theoretically 'easy' points and wins, but nothing Pittsburgh has done this year has been the easy way.
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Mar 6, 2021 15:43
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Pretty funny game. Pens needed that win. Meltdowns and effort posts postponed until tomorrow for now.
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Mar 6, 2021 21:41
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The change by the Flyers for the 4th goal is woooooooooof
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Mar 6, 2021 21:56
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If the Pens weren't also getting a lot of bottom tier goaltending they could be probably a few points better. With that said if they can sort their poo poo out a bit, get even league average goaltending, and pick up some depth scoring either through health/luck/trade they might be 2nd or 3rd in the Div. Or they just massacre NJD/Buffalo and we declare all things are fixed! Excited for the top 6 rental too.
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Mar 6, 2021 22:20
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Absolutely agreed. On the upside I think the Pens can afford to move 1 maybe 2 left sided defensemen. It probably won't be the one I/we want though. It's unfortunate Friedman got hot brains I think Marino could use some time out of the lineup. Imo if the Pens can add a top 6 right wing and move Kap down the lineup all of a sudden you have some decent skating either on the 3rd or 4th line. Evan Rod coming back is nice as well in adding an NHLer to the bottom 6.
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Mar 6, 2021 22:39
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The Pens need to clone Rust.
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Mar 7, 2021 02:34
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:pick plays should be legal, fight me Go away Mike.
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Mar 7, 2021 15:38
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Carver posted:One of the things I have to say about the Pens is that I'm not certain I've ever seen a team give up so many 2 on 0's. Extremely win and/die system and team this year.
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Mar 7, 2021 15:39
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Probably depends who had money on the table for him this off-season. Hall's bigger problem is the cap going absolutely no where again this year. However, depending on how Seattle shakes out there could be better offers this summer if some teams can clear cap. Better question is who grabs him as a rental and what it costs.
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Mar 7, 2021 23:35
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I think in 'normal' times Hall might have gotten something similar to Panarin. Unfortunately, with the economics being what they are, it is really hard to say. 5x6.5-7? Would anyone do 6x8mil? Hall has probably missed out on at least idk 1.5 to 2 mil a year per because of pandemic.
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Mar 8, 2021 01:22
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Lmao Scott Wedgwood shut out the Bruins.
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Mar 8, 2021 01:29
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Hall will absolutely get 6.5 per again lmao
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Mar 8, 2021 01:56
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Zucc got 5x6 at 32. I think Hall is unlikely to get a 7 year deal unless it's a discount. 6x6.5 I could see from a few teams.
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Mar 8, 2021 02:08
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Ginette Reno posted:I didn't realize Hall only had two goals. That's a yikes. How is that even possible? He's not that old. 3% shooting and he isn't really an out and out goal scorer. Only been 30+ once with 2 other seasons where with a full 82 he would have hit it.
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Mar 8, 2021 02:34
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The Pittsburgh Penguins are back to the Win part in Win but we may die. What a confusing team.
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Mar 8, 2021 04:06
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ThinkTank posted:Thatcher Demko is gonna convince Benning to buy again Eyup and we're all really excited for it.
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Mar 9, 2021 15:57
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:So there's a single playoff spot that seems up in the air and the season isn't even half over lol. There are 2.....maybe. St. Louis has already played a bunch of games against the 'easier' of the teams in the div and if Minny, CO, and Vegas put up a bunch of wins it could get competitive. Unlikely though. The east is probably going to go all the way to the wire. Anyone of Pitt, Philly, or Washington could miss.
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Mar 9, 2021 16:16
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Cocaine Bear posted:And not like they'll do anything with it but the Stars are a handful of games behind everyone and could conceivably not lose all of them in a row in a coordinated dance of shame and ineptitude. Maybe! I thought about Dallas, but even if they won all 6 games in hand they're tied for that 4th spot and outside of base shooting % they already look pretty good on the spreasheets so there isn't some super obvious improvements that might catapult them up. Chicago is the weird one though. They could collapse
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Mar 9, 2021 16:57
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Some one please update the fire sale videos. It's time.
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Mar 9, 2021 17:33
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ThinkTank posted:I don't trust Benning to get anything close to a worthwhile return on Schmidt, but if there's a good offer out there move him he's nearly 30. He's been our most consistent defenceman this year, so if he stays put its no big deal. I doubt anyone is offering a first round pick and a prospect with that contract. You will get your Mike Matheson and Colton Sceciour and you will like them!
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Mar 10, 2021 15:22
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My memory of Perron was he seemed capable but not exciting. His spreadsheet numbers with the Pens are really good though. Also Mike Johnston was really bad. Idk weird player, but happy he won a cup.
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Mar 11, 2021 23:00
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At least it isn't only broadcast on the top of the tv guide scrolling upcoming channel so that's progress.
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Mar 12, 2021 00:15
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Blackbelt Bobman posted:https://twitter.com/sabresplays/status/1370193698953302020?s=21 It isn't boarding because ZAR comes from the side and gets underneath and into the logo. The toss and extension is woof though. It's a super rear end in a top hat hit tbh, but I'm not sure there is much explicitly illegal about it. Edit: the uncalled knee to knee was garbage too yeah
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Mar 12, 2021 04:24
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CBJSprague24 posted:Sure, why not? And we only have to wait until he's out of quarantine! 7 days when coming to the US. You should already know this. Hard to remember though I guess with Laine disappearing on the bench and ice.
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Mar 13, 2021 02:35
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DJExile posted:It kills you to not be a dick to people, doesn't it Been hanging around Aphro too much
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Mar 13, 2021 03:33
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| # ¿ Apr 25, 2024 01:17 |
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CBJSprague24 posted:For this effort, I'll give you a D since the Penguins don't have one. I mean it isn't like CBJ gave up a 3 goal lead to Florida like yesterday
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Mar 13, 2021 04:13
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