NBA Top Shot is the dumbest way to print money I've ever seen

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > NBA Top Shot is the dumbest way to print money I've ever seen

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

tangy yet delightful posted:

21510 users ahead of me in line, gonna spend $14 on whatever the hell this is

Not sure how long I have to sit here waiting to hit the purchase page though so somehow I'll end up getting hosed still.

My thoughts exactly, though I have 30k in front of me.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2021 18:19

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# ¿ Apr 25, 2024 16:27

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

I got my first pack on Thursday.

COLLIN SEXTON 3 Pointer Base Set (Series 2) #11525/35000+
ZION WILLIAMSON Dunk Base Set (Series 2) #1510/3475
STEPH CURRY 3 Pointer Seeing Stars (Series 2) #3620/10000

Sold my Zion for $150 since I don't want to stick more money in it and now I have some money to buy more packs with.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2021 16:47

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

35k, looks like I get to spend $200 on basketball gifs.

# ¿ Mar 19, 2021 17:03

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

Red Rox posted:

The site is running the smoothest it�s ever run for me - usually they have to pause the queue multiple times.

Anyway I pulled a pretty boring Harden 3-pointer but it�s probably worth hundreds of moon-dollars.

The line paused shortly after you posted this.

# ¿ Mar 19, 2021 18:11

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

ketchup vs catsup posted:

I lucked into picking Monday to start buying individual moments and completing challenges, and I've got the moments for 3 current challenges / 1 upcoming and prices are coming back so I'm already green on everything I've bought.

What are the rewards for challenges? I think you can buy all the cards for the all-star one for ~$350.

# ¿ Mar 24, 2021 22:37

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

ketchup vs catsup posted:

did you mean $3500? cause the Kyrie Irving alone for the ASG challenge is $400 right now. the Lebron is $2900.

You must be thinking of the "Welcome to the All Star Family Challenge" - I completed that one too.

each challenge has a reward listed on top of the page.

it's important to note that challenge rewards are Circulating Count (CC) moments, so their total mint count can increase in the future.

however, challenge rewards are thus-far guaranteed to be the first minted of a particular moment, and limited to the number of accounts that complete the reward - so if you complete a challenge with 1000 other people, your reward is guaranteed to be serial # < 1000, and could be in the top 100.

it's a gamble on what you get as the reward, but even after the challenge you still have / can sell the moments you bought to complete the challenge + the reward.

Yeah, that's the one I meant. I may take a shot at this one, it's all the house's money at this point anyways.

Edit: I expect all the moments required will drop in price after the challenge is over, but so far I have had good luck with getting more than enough return value for my packs.

dalstrs fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Mar 24, 2021

# ¿ Mar 24, 2021 23:17

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

I have been getting pretty lucky with my base packs. In this last one, I got a Tyrese Haliburton that I sold for $625. I'm going to try for the Holo pack and hope this train continues.

I'll also take free money if they are giving it
Dunks
https://nbatopshot.com/showcases/a3d9ea8b-12fa-43b2-bbcd-32a7463ffdc7

# ¿ Apr 12, 2021 16:09

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

ketchup vs catsup posted:

womp womp 33,000

49k, looks like we don't get to spend $1k on .gifs

# ¿ Apr 12, 2021 21:04

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

ketchup vs catsup posted:

on the one hand, nuts.

on the other hand...good for us?

This mirrors my feelings exactly.

RCarr posted:

Did they say how much the rebound pack will cost? And how many of them there are?

I saw $9 for the pack, I did not see anything about a limit on the quantity.

# ¿ Apr 12, 2021 21:15

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

ketchup vs catsup posted:

I'm around 160 moments, total value of about $7800.

for a while I wanted 1 of every moment but I've stopped buying the cheap stuff for now. pretty much focused on getting all the cool cats + any packs they let me buy.

What's the rationale for the long-term value? I keep the cheap stuff I get in packs but have sold everything worth more than $100 almost as soon as I've gotten them. Last I checked they were all worth less now than when I sold them.

# ¿ Apr 15, 2021 17:59

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

ketchup vs catsup posted:

1. NFTs are stupid, but the NBA is not and will be around for a while.

2. the expensive stuff is useful for challenges, where the real money is.

3. it's a gamble that the NBA will see what kinda money this can bring in and promote the hell out of it, possibly during the playoffs beginning at the end of May. Seems to just be spreading on word of mouth and breathless news articles about NFTs so far.

4. it's a gamble that series 1/2 moments will eventually be MTG Alpha/Beta of top shot.

5. Dapper/the NBA have a vested interest in this not collapsing.

I don't mind tying up the money I've put in on the chance that my stuff will be more valuable in a year - I think by the end of next NBA season, series 3, the fate of series1/2/top shot as a whole will be set.

Fair enough, I've always been surprised how much money people are willing to pay for some collectibles. How much of your money have you put in? I only bought 1 $14 pack with my own money and have not invested anything else out of pocket. I have about $200 in moments and $1600 in my Dapper account from it.

# ¿ Apr 15, 2021 18:36

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

I already applied for withdrawals and did the paperwork they request, no idea how it will work tax-wise, probably the same way profit from selling anything else is treated.

I may invest in a few of those Series 1 moments, will def withdraw a few hundred when I get approved, but will probably keep the rest in to keep buying packs.

And 240k in front of me in the queue.

# ¿ Apr 15, 2021 19:03

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

The queue is open for anyone who wants to take a shot.

# ¿ Apr 22, 2021 21:31

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

I got a pack, not sure if it was worth it yet. I got Jaylen Brunson for the Gold LE.

# ¿ Apr 22, 2021 22:23

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

Stress test drop has a queue open right now.

# ¿ Apr 26, 2021 21:33

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

Just got a notification that the small test withdrawal of USDC was successful. The $25 fee to withdraw to a bank is a real downer.

# ¿ May 3, 2021 18:42

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

208k, at least I'm far enough out I don't have to keep an eye on it. You 147k guys have a 50/50 chance.

# ¿ May 3, 2021 19:05

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

sharknado slashfic posted:

lol but also gl, seems there's a solid chance

I've calculated that based on how it's moving so far my spot will come up exactly when I have a presentation to give in zoom

You have something like 20 min to purchase I think (I know you get this if you have them email you when it's your turn). So make the presentation quick.

# ¿ May 3, 2021 19:19

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

Fast Luck posted:

So the s1 packs are gonna be one 1000 LE moment (which could be a LeBron, Steph, Kawhi, Harden, or Giannis worth thousands of dollars, or a Harry Giles worth minimum a couple hundred), and then three cards that are 1240-3999 LE. Sorting by lowest ask, the cheapest of those kind of moments all go at $45+ currently although there's probably some gems in there too. I think you're looking at a minimum pack value of around $400 at least.

There was a table of the most common 1000 LE moments held by TopShot released at one point. Here it is:

You can also browse through the NBATopShot account to get a little more of a look at what they've got.

It still seems like the pack will be worth a hundred or more $5 cards, but I don't like buying those cards up without knowing how many I'll need, and further without knowing if it'll guarantee a pack. I would hate to be stuck with 150 trade tickets and no pack.

Looks like we are waiting for more details before we find out if this is good. There is also going to be downward pressure on all those cards because more are going to go up for sale.

I think it also depends on how they set up the ticket for card exchange. Their marketplace is annoying to use and if the exchange process is anything like that, it would have to be an insane value to repeatedly do it for enough tickets to buy packs.

# ¿ May 5, 2021 20:07

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

sum posted:

I wonder if all the 35k Jake-Layman-assist-in-a-30-point-loss-esque cards are just driving down the market overall. If the market was a static size they'd just be low quality cheap cards, but if people are having a negative experience opening up packs just to get "highlights" from anonymous bench players that might just be shrinking the base of collectors.

I got a bunch of garbage, seems everything is going down in value and it has me thinking about just giving it up and cashing it all out.

My thought about the long-term value, one of the things that make old physical cards so valuable is that so many are destroyed by time. You will never have destroyed cards with this meaning the only difference in scarcity between now and 5 years is just the activity of the accounts. There will always be xxx of xxx printed cards out there. So we are counting on new people coming in and wanting the old moments. I'm not sure I see enough of a market out there to keep the price up, especially with the quality of some of these newer packs and challenges.

# ¿ May 8, 2021 04:46

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

Spacebump posted:

This is why I am probably liquidating most of my collection after the hustle and show challenge is over.

It's such a tedious process to list them all, I'm going to start liquidating my higher price cards that I haven't already sold, I might hold on to the cheap ones because :effort:

# ¿ May 8, 2021 04:56

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

I just submitted a withdrawal of $1k. I might gamble on the new pack to really help cement what I want to do with the rest.

The challenges don't seem to be worth bothering with. The last Cool Cats challenge I had 2 of the cards already and still the reward is worth less than the money I spent to acquire the 3 other needed cards.

I can't complain too much, for a total investment of $9 on my part it all worked out pretty well.

# ¿ May 9, 2021 20:28

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

I joined the queue 20 mins late and was still able to get a pack (that was full of crap), I think that is a pretty good indication of where this is heading. I may buy a few of the cheaper packs if they are convenient when they drop.

Moment rank seems to show a few percent drop in the value of almost all the cards I have every few days.

# ¿ May 21, 2021 16:40

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

I just joined this weekend's drop and there was no wait to get my pile of garbage, it's worth about the same as the pack assuming people would buy them at that price.

I've gone ahead and withdrawn almost all the cash I had in there and will leave ~$100 and most of the moments in there (not worth the time listing the <$10 ones) but am def not going to tell other people they should jump in anymore or worry as much about catching drops.

I can't complain really, I've gotten more than a 150x return on my investment.

# ¿ May 22, 2021 18:28

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

So I had a Jimmy Butler moment sell this morning which I was surprised by then I went to check the sales history and noticed this:

https://livetoken.co/community-tools/account?address=dc36ff7db166d6b1&mode=portfolio

The guy has single handedly raised the price a couple bucks per moment. And he seems to be doing it with very specific star level players. He's grabbing everything below a certain price point regardless of the live token FMV. Seems as though he's trying to monopolize those moments then relist at a high price once all the cheap moments have dissappeared, taking advantage of people wanting out.

Seems like an interesting strategy (and also a good opportunity if you're patient to "tag along" to what he's doing.)

I'm unsure about that. Everything I own has been cratering. It doesn't look like there is still demand to hold up value on things at the moment.

I saw something is discord about another holo drop coming, I'm really curious if it will sell out with the high cost and the iffiness of it even be worth the money. I know I am someone that would have bought the last drop but will be sitting this one out.

# ¿ May 31, 2021 17:49

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

They also announced what you need for a collector score to get next weeks premium pack: 2500 colletior score which lmao I have 50 moments and a score of 785 sooooooooo

Very close to the same. They also said the holo drop will be even higher. It makes it easier for me to ignore the whole thing. I think they are missing a huge marketing opportunity with the playoffs. They should be trying to get as many people coming in as possible, not restricting stuff to the whales.

# ¿ Jun 4, 2021 04:51

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

How have they only released 2 playoff packs? It feels like this has been a playoff they could have really pushed and built some excitement behind these things.

# ¿ Jul 7, 2021 00:29

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# ¿ Apr 25, 2024 16:27

dalstrs: Mar 11, 2004; At least this way my kill will have some use; Dinosaur Gum

I got in today as well. Haven't touched anything in a few months.

# ¿ Jan 27, 2022 05:17

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > NBA Top Shot is the dumbest way to print money I've ever seen