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Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Less seeds are wrapped up now too. Teams could still jump a lot of spots if the chips fall right.

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Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

dokmo posted:

what the hell, it's not like i'm being paid to work and not make two missed dunk compilations in the span of a few hours:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eAPb-IKNEU

Truly the work of a man who finds no joy in basketball.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Yoshi Wins posted:

All I want to know is who is Boomhauer?

Evan Turner

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Just got back from a week away but really glad the timer is on for Glenn Taylor's involvement with the Wolves.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Senator Drinksalot posted:

He's never been a good shooter?

Yeah, he had this weird rep as a support, off-ball guy but he's always been a ISO player looking to drive from the perimeter or post up. My take on watching a few Miami games is that he really only launches 3s when plays blow up, so his crap 3p% is at least somewhat a factor of that, but yeah he's not really all that great of a shooter even in the best circumstances.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Western Playoffs are going to be a bloodbath. Pretty sure Utah will win in the first round. Past that sorta feels like anything could happen.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

morestuff posted:

Huh, not sure where I picked that up. Sorry!

There were a bunch of things suggested but basically if you are 7-8 you have to lose twice to get bumped out, 9-10 teams have to win twice to get into the playoffs.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

morestuff posted:

Timberwolves definitely aren’t moving because the owners are expecting a huge expansion payday soon

https://twitter.com/jonkrawczynski/status/1382077652060811264?s=21

Timberwolves are the 14th biggest media market too. That's even more important now than when the Seattle move happened as that factors into the next TV deal.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Senator Drinksalot posted:

All the advanced stats put him slightly above average this season and slightly below average for his career. Yes, indeed I would think that's a midlevel guy.

Advanced stats have him significantly above average the last two years. Why do people think the average nba player is a bear all star?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

iamsosmrt posted:

I think BI is clearly above average but it'd be interesting to see how well he'd do on a deeper, stronger roster as opposed to being a good player on a bad to mediocre team.

This Pelican's team is better than the Lakers teams he was on, even with LBJ. If anything I'd expect him to look better with a better cast.

Right now NOP is running everything though Zion, which is the right thing to do, but Zion is still rounding out his game and honestly blazing a offensive trail that doesn't really have a modern equivalent. It's why New Orleans looks like a 50+ win team one game and then terrible the next. I'm also not in love with the roster construction even though I understand what they are trying to do. In short, I think BI has been playing well and definitely has the tools to take another step up, I don't think he's benefiting that much from the team as much as the team is benefiting from him.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

euphronius posted:

neutral net rating at best. horrific defense. Just abysmal.

What net rating? Everything has him as a solid starter the last two seasons. And dbpm sucks. BI is a pretty decent defender, at worst he's average for his position.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Metapod posted:

Yall wanted dort to stop shooting

His TS% this season is lower than Wiggin's career average.

He is still a good defender though.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Senator Drinksalot posted:

Win shares are also completely middle of the road.

He's #46 out of 520 in WS this season. That's way closer to all-star than "middle of the road".

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
No way LaMelo is coming back, even if they have a play in. No reason to risk your rookie star like that.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
My "Nets will regret not picking up Gorgui Dieng" call is looking shinier and shinier.

Sad to see LMA go, but more power to him. Go do whatever it is you do on your own time. I'm gunna guess classic kit cars.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

dokmo posted:

its super exaggerated this season (and last season). In 18-19, the most used lineup of each of the best 5 teams played between 8-14% of the teams' total minutes. This season 3 teams have more than 18%

Ayton/Bridges/Crowder/Booker/Paul played 24%
Gobert/Bogdanovic/O'Neale/Mitchell/Conley played 22%
Embiid/Harris/Simmons/Green/Curry played 18% of the team's minutes

compare to
Ibaka/Leonard/Batum/George/Beverley played 9%
Jordan/Brown/Harris/Harden/Irving played 7%

I think you're going to see more teams limp into the playoffs down key players too though. So while its exaggerated it might not mean regular season production is over valued.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Harden, Luca and Ginboli are all the same type of player. :colbert:

Zion is totally unique. KAT and Bam are both pretty unique in their skillsets but I think bigs in general are going to start getting wider skillsets so those guys are probably going to become more common. Russ is unique but more in the "throwback guy" kinda way that just isn't in the league anymore.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

euphronius posted:

How am I misinterpreting win share

Winshare isn't telling you how many wins a player adds to a team, for one.

It's assigning a value based on box score stats. If you try to use it literally "player X adds 15 wins" when you are misusing it.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Knicks players having decent seasons getting immediately and hilariously overreacted to is one of my favorite all-time things.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

morestuff posted:

It's extremely funny that we're getting an important Knicks-Hornets game on Tuesday

The play-in thing is totally pointless but I kinda love it.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Yeah, I love low scoring games when every bucket is a huge victory because the defenses are stamping out everything. When it's two teams clanging lazy jumpers that's different.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Watanabe was a great pickup. I mean, probably just a good low-usage, swiss army knife rotation guy seeing as he's already 26 but getting one of those out of a 2-way is a great investment.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Don't underestimate the impact of playing a full season on the road does for a team. As funky of a season this was for everyone it was way worse for the Raptors. Their center issues were part of it for sure, but I think this was always going to be a lost season for them.

I also think their roster is actually more of a .500 roster anyway and last season they just outperformed by a pretty big margin. I think for a long time Lowry had a much bigger impact on the game than most people gave him credit for, but he just isn't doing that this season and he's 35 now so he's not going to drag teams to an extra 5+ wins anymore.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

kingcobweb posted:

defensive rebounds are fake for sure

actually it was Russ who convinced me of this

Getting a defensive rebound means not giving up an offensive one. One can't be more valuable than the other.

jackofarcades posted:

rebounds are not fake at the team level, but can definitely be at the individual level

This is true. Rebounding is important but it's like turnovers. If you have an otherwise good team you should be able to at least get OK at rebounding the ball without reshaping your roster.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

DC Murderverse posted:

I would bet a bajillion dollars that Jimmy Butler hates Tyler Tuesday’s at Chipotle

No one talks enough about the work Jimmy Butler is doing making coffee and only want's to talk about rookie contract guys with franchise fast food.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

DC Murderverse posted:

poo poo yeah he did, right after the announcers pointed out how good his free throw percentage was. It was hilarious.

And he got called for a moving screen late in the 4th when Denver was making their initial comeback. And he clanged like 4 jumpers in OTs. He really did everything he could to lose that game for Memphis.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

WhyteRyce posted:

Klay dying keeps them from being near the top but right now they are clinging to a play-in game which is wildly different and lower in expectations.


Vegas odds after Klay went down was 37.5 wins, which seems right in line with where they'll probably end up.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

kingcobweb posted:

The Nuggets have employed the services of Austin Rivers for the next ten days.

But surprised he’s on the “getting a ten day” stage of his career, is he really that cooked?

There are some teams that might be willing to give him a shot but he probably doesn't want to go lose a bunch of games as the Wolves of Rockets 10th man. I bet he lands somewhere as a back of the rotation guy next year.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Our police kill lots of people but at least they sometimes get convicted?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Zogo posted:

I've meant to do a comprehensive study on team ORtg/DRtg (with and without players on the court) and estimate the added wins and losses to each team.

The basic formula: G * (TmORtg14 / (TmORtg14 + TmDRtg14)

(TmORtg and TmDRtg with or without each player on the court).


e.g. here is an estimate of the 2008, 2009 and 2010 Cavaliers wins if LBJ wasn't on the team:

2008: 82 * (9314 / (9314 + 102.214) = 17.72 wins
2009: 82 * (97.914 / (97.914 + 10614) = 20.28 wins
2010: 82 * (97.314 / (97.314 + 102.914) = 25.71 wins


And an estimate of the 2008, 2009 and 2010 Cavaliers wins if LBJ never sat on the bench:

2008: 82 * (107.214 / (107.214 + 105.514) = 45.56 wins
2009: 82 * (11414 / (11414 + 99.414) = 71.50 wins
2010: 82 * (11414 / (11414 + 10314) = 66.04 wins


LBJ had about ~18 WS in his final three years on the Cavaliers but in actuality probably added on average almost forty wins each of those years. Which makes sense because when he left the Cavaliers immediately dropped down to nineteen wins the following year.

Learned doctors of yore could already intuit this by looking at the trashmen LBJ was surrounded by but the unlearned chiropractors of the NBA world thought LBJ wasn't a winner and didn't have the eye of the tiger. In contrast, MJJ retired in 1993 (with comparable WS numbers the preceding three seasons) and the Bulls went from 57 wins to 55 wins because Horace Grant and Scottie Pippen were also both borderline-MVP candidates.


PS Did you know that the 2016 Warriors would've only won twenty games if Draymond Green wasn't on the team? It's true!

You gotta control for the other players who were on the court with him (I bet Tristan Thompson has a huge ZogoRate too). If you keep going I think you're going to accidently re-invent RAPM.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Hoop Dreams posted:

MIP has to be Julius Randle.

He hasn't even played all that much better than normal, but being a focal point on a actually real good defensive team is certainly an accomplishment.

Christian Wood or LaVine would also be good picks.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
That Lebron tweet was way tamer than I thought it was going to be.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

dokmo posted:

this is the most niche edit i've made, have a look at the league leader in fake dhos, naz reid

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeLXHkWFRWk

I love every second of this.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

triple sulk posted:

The Knicks are... good??

Thibs is good.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Lol, Harris plays absolutely nothing like Wiggins. Harris has always been pretty good and he go overpaid because that's what the Sixers needed to do to get him to be a (at the time) 4th banana. He's also playing a lot better this year because he doesn't need to play as a perimeter-only wing and can instead play forward. Harris had absolutely nothing to do with the fact that the sixers played 4 bigs last year.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

iamsosmrt posted:

Seems like there's actually been like a league wide power creep this season.

Last season so many teams reshuffled their roster no one was playing at full potential. This year more teams got better than got worse, but since basketball is zero sum it doesn't always show up like you expect.

big boi posted:

I remember a talking point going around a while ago which said, broadly, that while Thibs was a defensive innovator, widespread adoption of his defensive schemes had made him sorta obsolete. But now the Knicks are a terrific defensive team, and he's a COTY candidate. Does he just have a better roster for his coaching style, or is he coaching differently, or was it just a bullshit hot take the whole time?

A little of everything, but mostly BS. Thibs strategies did get adopted, but he's still really good at getting the most out of players and he is way more flexible in terms of adjusting to his roster than people give him credit for. Timberwolves weren't a good defensive team under him, but he maximized the fact that he had one of the best collection of ISO guys to make them an elite (and unwatchable, but effective) offense. They were a tenth of a point behind GSW in ORTG that season.

So I'd agree he's not the "single-handily change your team" type coach he was assisting in Boston and then the first couple Bulls years (so that part is because his innovation is now just common wisdom) but he's still really effective. Every team he's coached got better when he showed up and worse when he left.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Shrimp or Shrimps posted:

What was Thibs' defensive innovation? I do know that he did the strong-side loading thing with Boston aka having his weak side defenders drift to the strong side as that cross court pass is tough to see / execute for the ball handler, and I guess rotating with the swing passes around the perimeter is fairly instinctual. Were there other specific schemes? I know his hoarsely barking ICE ICE is a meme, but I swear I read somewhere (possibly here) that his teams don't actually do a lot of icing.

In Boston and Chicago it was basically "take away any chance the ball handler has to get to the rim". So lots of Icing on screens (in situations that you usually didn't), lots of overcommitting to the paint, and playing off weakside guys. It was really trying to take the Iso game away as much as you can and then just dealing with what was left. It wasn't, like, mind blowing. No one is going to write a book about it, but he was able to make that defense easy enough to follow that all of a sudden Paul Pierce and Keith Bogans looked like really good defensive wings. Now playing that kind of defense (with more running players off the 3 point line) is pretty well adopted but he's still really good at getting players to execute.

Red Rox posted:


I thought it was just cause most teams just cant be hosed playing defense this year.

Nah, I think teams are playing pretty hard this year. Way harder than they did on lockout seasons. Lakers were a good team but they would have been wrecked by a bunch of Western teams from 2016-2019. We kinda forget because of covid time warp but the league really shook the box during the 2019 off-season and a bunch of the top teams were kinda weirdly constructed due to that.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
I'd go
Snyder (for this season and also since he's been real good for years)
Thibs
Monty Williams (Share with CP3)
Maybe Doc?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.


This one is awesome. Also notable: Shoes off and not able to play basketball.

Lockback fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Apr 23, 2021

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Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Somehow make this the thread title

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