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Sir John Falstaff posted:But the vaccine not only reduces risk of infection, it also reduces risk of getting severe illness once infected, so that number is meaningless. I've seen that claim but I haven't actually seen it quantified anywhere. So it's unclear whether it's even true
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May 9, 2021 08:16
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QuarkJets posted:I've seen that claim but I haven't actually seen it quantified anywhere. So it's unclear whether it's even true I am pretty sure it is extremely true, the most impressive thing I remember reading from the mass participation phase III trials was that nobody died who got covid during them. Can't remember which vaccine specifically I saw that data about because i believe pfizer and moderna and astrazeneca had similar results.
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May 9, 2021 08:34
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Deep Glove Bruno posted:I am pretty sure it is extremely true, the most impressive thing I remember reading from the mass participation phase III trials was that nobody died who got covid during them. Can't remember which vaccine specifically I saw that data about because i believe pfizer and moderna and astrazeneca had similar results. In the Phase 3 Pfizer trials, in the placebo group there were 162 infections with 9 severe cases (~5%), and in the vaccinated group there were 8 infections with 1 severe case (~12.5%). Those results do not at all support this idea of reduced-severity, but I don't think that there's nearly enough data to draw any conclusions Basically because the vaccine was so effective at outright preventing infections, there weren't nearly enough infections to observe whether the likelihood of a case becoming severe might also be effected by the vaccine. Source: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine
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May 9, 2021 08:46
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In a brief literature search, I wasn't able to find any studies implying a reduction in likelihood for cases becoming severe or deadly among vaccinated individuals. I'm not saying that it's impossible or doesn't happen, I just haven't seen evidence for it yet
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May 9, 2021 08:50
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now that i think of it it might've been a follow up study after trials - some 30000 of the earliest vaccinated in israel i think? CORRECTION: it was 600,000 (half vaccinated and half not) here someone who's good at reading studies check this out https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 see the N/As in Table 2 under Results? that's 0 deaths if i'm reading it right and the severity is reduced a lot as well i mean here's one on sinovac which is only 50% effective in preventing infection but still eliminated or nearly eliminated serious illness in those infected https://www.reuters.com/business/he...ath-2021-02-06/ Deep Glove Bruno fucked around with this message at 09:20 on May 9, 2021 |
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May 9, 2021 09:06
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The NHS has been doing work on long Covid and the numbers are pretty worrying. This particular one is focused on people who were hospitalised but there is other research showing about 20% of people who catch covid have symptoms after 6 weeks and about 10-12% have lingering effects at three months. https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n693 QuarkJets posted:I've seen that claim but I haven't actually seen it quantified anywhere. So it's unclear whether it's even true As for vaccines they both prevent infection and reduce severity of disease in those that get breakthrough infections by about 50% https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/02/23/covid-19-analysing-first-vaccine-effectiveness-in-the-uk/ Saros fucked around with this message at 10:24 on May 9, 2021 |
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May 9, 2021 10:21
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One problem with long covid stats is that 'Long Covid' itself is fairly poorly defined. It can mean anything from 'someone feels a bit groggy and loses their sense of taste/smell for several weeks but otherwise makes a full recovery' (Which sucks, but doesn't suck to a 'close all society' degree) all the way through to 'oh gently caress why did you inhale an entire loving cheesegrater, your lungs are hosed'. All ends of the spectrum are just being lumped into one poorly defined bucket. Without that data, I don't see how it can be spun into a pro-vaccination story, because it'll just come across as disingenious hysterics to anyone who knows someone who just felt a little lovely and then recovered. One thing that baffles me about vaccine hesitency in the states is that you'd think Maga-types would be touting the vaccine from the rooftops as being 'Trump fixed the problem' and that you should take 'the Trump Vaccine' to 'own the libs' or whatever. In the UK, our Fox News equivilants went all in on the AZ vaccine being a source of national pride and tied it together with an vague anti-EU narrative about how this the vaccine is the benefit of Brexit. It's a narrative that doesn't make any remote actual sense if you think about it for more than 10 seconds, and is outright offensively rude to everyone on the continent, but it does have the benefit of making your typical right winger take their bloody medicine. If I were a staffer trying to preserve political captial for Trump so he can act as the kingmaker for the next Republican candidate, I'd be praising the vaccine from the hills and tying it as closely to a story about how Trump personally and single handedly made it and doing so saved the country as I can. It's the most obvious PR strategy in the world, and it's absolutely baffling that the US right seems to be trying to throw the one actual thing Trump got right in 4 years away.
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May 9, 2021 10:40
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So yeah India sounds really really bad right now. https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238136219512833?s=20
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May 9, 2021 11:09
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Deep Glove Bruno posted:now that i think of it it might've been a follow up study after trials - some 30000 of the earliest vaccinated in israel i think? CORRECTION: it was 600,000 (half vaccinated and half not) here someone who's good at reading studies check this out Out of 4262 confirmed infections among vaccinated individuals, 9 died. That's about 2 in 1000. That's compared to 32 unvaccinated individuals dying, out of 6100 confirmed infections, so a very nice reduction in infections, deaths, and everything in-between, but not the "one in ten million" chance that was being posted about earlier e: Even if you assumed that the entire sample size was exposed to infection, which you should not, that'd be 9 / 600,000 (the vaccinated population size alone was 600k) QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 12:04 on May 9, 2021 |
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May 9, 2021 11:53
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The numbers we also should be looking at are the vaccination % and the r rate. The vaccine not having taken won’t matter once we get to true herd immunity. In the U.K. people have been less moronic than in America, but we do have our own variant of Qanon rat licking morons, but this is the point where our government needs to stop listing to this tiny minority of fuckwads and bring in vaccine passports and make the rules draconian for 3 months. We 100% know who these plague carriers are because they were the ones sat on benches outside burger vans and whatnot pushing pushing pushing the rules. They extended this loving plague, if they don’t want a passport they can stay the gently caress inside like the rest of us had to for a year.
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May 9, 2021 12:07
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QuarkJets posted:Out of 4262 confirmed infections among vaccinated individuals, 9 died. That's about 2 in 1000. That's compared to 32 unvaccinated individuals dying, out of 6100 confirmed infections, so a very nice reduction in infections, deaths, and everything in-between, but not the "one in ten million" chance that was being posted about earlier Yeah even though the media made a huge deal about how the vaccines were rated 100% effective against death it was always pretty much certain that we'd get at least some cases anyway given the vaccines' efficacy rate against infection, the increased severity of the variants and the fact that there's a LOT of people out there with serious pre-existing conditions. You roll the dice a couple hundred thousand or a couple million times and it'll happen eventually.
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May 9, 2021 12:19
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learnincurve posted:The numbers we also should be looking at are the vaccination % and the r rate. The vaccine not having taken won’t matter once we get to true herd immunity. The only thing that worries me about immunity passports is that a counterfeit market could develop, rendering the whole program totally useless.
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May 9, 2021 14:08
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They are talking about making it an app on the phone here 
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May 9, 2021 14:14
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QuarkJets posted:The odds probably aren't that bad; if you just multiply residual risk of infection (with Pfizer, that's about 10%) by CFR (2%) it's two in a thousand (0.1 * 0.02 = 0.002). I don't think that you can get a valid estimate of the odds of post-vaccinated death by multiplying residual risk of infection by CFR; that calculation assumes an initial infection risk of 100%. A vaccine with a 90% efficacy rate does not mean that 10% of the people who are vaccinated with that vaccine will catch the virus. It means that in the study that was used to determine efficacy, 10% of the people who caught the virus were vaccinated. That is a critical distinction when you are looking at numbers like those shown in the phase three Pfizer study. 162 of the 170 participants who were infected had not been vaccinated, while 8 had been. But that's out of a total of 43,661 participants. It's not like every time someone who is vaccinated walks out their door they roll a d20, and if they roll a 1 they get Covid.
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May 9, 2021 14:23
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People really like drinking beer, eating Chinese food and going to watch other people play sports. Pity.
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May 9, 2021 14:42
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The CFR for 30-somethings is 0.2% and not 2%, for what it’s worth.
Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 14:54 on May 9, 2021 |
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May 9, 2021 14:51
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low key sex master posted:I've had both doses and next week will mark two weeks since my second, but I feel like I'm going to be wary going inside to eat at a restaurant for a very, very long time. Anyone else feeling the same way? Yeah because kitchen nightmares convinced me that every restaurant kitchen is extremely unsanitary and disgusting
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May 9, 2021 14:56
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Lincolnstein posted:People really like drinking beer, eating Chinese food and going to watch other people play sports. Pity. The fools! They've doomed us all!!!!
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May 9, 2021 15:19
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:The fools! They've doomed us all!!!! YEAH! Lincolnstein posted:People really like drinking beer, eating Chinese food and going to watch other people play sports. Pity. There's only 1 Chinese restaurant here that allows eat-in dining and it's so weird, because I assumed that after a year they'd be open, too. Instead, my favorite one says they're probably permanently take-out only because they've made triple the profit from not having to deal with flipping tables.
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May 9, 2021 15:23
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Lincolnstein posted:People really like drinking beer, eating Chinese food and going to watch other people play sports. Pity. Where I live we haven’t had any of these things since March 2020 
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May 9, 2021 15:40
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Chief McHeath posted:Closing in on 24 hours post-Moderna II, the injection site pain is real, arm doesn't really want to go much above shoulder height. At T+46h and I'd say I'm at about 90%, just a little stiffness in the neck and my shoulder's still a bit tender at the injection site. Pain and lethargy started rapidly declining at about T+30. I did have a bunch of weird dreams last night, most of which included finding frogs in strange places. Open the cooler to pour ice in? Frog in there. Step in the closet? Frog in there. 
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May 9, 2021 16:45
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Just found out that yesterday a coworker has flown off to Belize for a week. This is a week after my employer started requiring us to come into the office 2 days a week in staggered shifts. No one wears masks once they’re at their desks in an open plan seating office. Gonna be awesome when the traveling coworker brings one of the variants directly into the office.
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May 9, 2021 16:53
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Well this is horrifying. Not COVID directly, but COVID-adjacent: India reports "Murcomycosis" (black fungus) complications resulting from steroid-based COVID treatments. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57027829 If the COVID doesn't get you, the fungus might  . We're transitioning from The Stand into Last of Us except with Blindness by Jose Saramago instead of fungus zombies.
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May 9, 2021 16:57
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learnincurve posted:Where I live we haven’t had any of these things since March 2020 This happened not that far from my neighbourhood about three weeks ago:  78,000 people jampacked into an arena, no masks required I'm in Australia, at that point we hadn't had any community spread cases of coronavirus for several months
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May 9, 2021 17:08
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CaptainCrunch posted:Just found out that yesterday a coworker has flown off to Belize for a week. This is a week after my employer started requiring us to come into the office 2 days a week in staggered shifts. Just realize that the vast majority are over it or given up. I'm in patient facing Healthcare and nearly the whole department has vacations and events and traveling planned starting in June.
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May 9, 2021 17:11
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Fenarisk posted:Just realized the vast majority are over it or given up. I'm in patient facing Healthcare and nearly the whole department has vacations and events and traveling planned starting in June. Australians still have to apply for government exemptions to travel overseas and tourism isn't allowed so it turns out they all decided to travel around Australia instead, which has massively boosted our own tourism industry and propped up our national economy. We actually had record back-to-back growth for two quarters thanks to the increase in domestic spending https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-unexpected-stimulus-how-the-closed-border-helped-save-the-economy-20210505-p57p7m.html ....... so if you hear anyone try to argue that "lockdowns ruin the economy" then tell them they're wrong
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May 9, 2021 17:20
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TheSlutPit posted:The problem with quantifying “long covid” is that it’s currently defined as any persistent symptoms following a negative test having been infected, so for some people it could mean “I felt a bit under the weather for a few weeks after having covid,” for others it could be losing taste/smell for months after infection, for others it could be lifelong chronic illness as a result of the disease. I’ve seen CDC statistics that roughly 10% of people have “long covid” in this context but have yet to see any regarding the severity or chronic nature of their symptoms. Honestly it’s likely we won’t know the relationship for years between covid and long-term health problems, but long covid in the sense of immediate chronic illness following recovery seems pretty uncommon. The wife is still suffering exhaustion, headaches, and taste distortions. The oldest son is at least having taste issues and maybe exhaustion, or maybe he's just a teenager. One of the younger kids still has tasting problems too. (Apparently minty stuff tastes fishy?) So yeah she posted a whole thing about how long-term effects aren't an exaggeration. I'm just kinda sad that she - who's pretty reasonable and really nice - is the one who got the short straw and not my wife's brother who'd been bitching about how it's just the flu for months.
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May 9, 2021 17:29
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Fenarisk posted:Just realize that the vast majority are over it or given up. I'm in patient facing Healthcare and nearly the whole department has vacations and events and traveling planned starting in June. Yeah, believe me, I can tell they absolutely are. I’m wearing a p100 mask while in the office and they all smirk. But I was the weirdo anyway so I don’t care. I resent the requirement to come in 2 days more than the rest. But the manager gots to get her numbers in her spreadsheet!
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May 9, 2021 17:31
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Fenarisk posted:Just realize that the vast majority are over it or given up. I'm in patient facing Healthcare and nearly the whole department has vacations and events and traveling planned starting in June. being over it doesn't make it less deadly or less of an issue or  I get quarantine fatigue too but man.
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May 9, 2021 17:35
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Got the 2nd Pfizer shot at the same time as my girlfriend yesterday. Currently at +25hrs and feel like poo poo. A rise in temperature started at around +12hrs, then full on shivers and body aches with a fever of 100. My girlfriends fever kicked in at +15 with the same body aches and shivers. I’ve been taking Tylenol and putting damp cloths in your wrists and foreheads to try help bring out fevers down, as my fever got over 101 this morning. Oh yeah, it’s also my birthday today. I’ll remember this one for a long time.
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May 9, 2021 19:33
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Fenarisk posted:Just realize that the vast majority are over it or given up. I'm in patient facing Healthcare and nearly the whole department has vacations and events and traveling planned starting in June. WFHers returning to the office and marveling at what everyone else has been dealing with the entire time is so cute
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May 9, 2021 19:40
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24+ hours post pfpfppfpf #2, pretty much nothin’ start a first day at a new job tomorrow, hope I make it 9 more days
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May 9, 2021 20:45
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got #2 and now i have mad tinnitus it irritates me that the vaccine manufacturers very adamantly refuse to acknowledge that this is a possible side effect even though it's clearly happening to various recipients e: as for the incidence it's exactly the same as the tinnitus i got from covid (that went away after i recovered) but it bothers me and it makes listening to music, or anything really, very disorienting Fur20 fucked around with this message at 21:03 on May 9, 2021 |
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May 9, 2021 20:54
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4 days post J&J vaccine and I'm 100% back to normal, just 3.5 more weeks till I reach full efficacy! 
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May 9, 2021 21:04
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My friend who is immunocompromised just joined a new AZ trial program which will check to see if her anti-bodies have kicked in and they may be giving her extra shots. So we know AZ are doing dedicated research into the immunocompromised.
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May 9, 2021 21:08
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Fur20 posted:got #2 and now i have mad tinnitus I don't know for sure how it works, but there may be a critical threshold for how many or how rigorous the reports need to be for inclusion on the list of side effects. Like, a metallic taste in the mouth is apparently a rare but known side effect that as far as I know doesn't show up on official side effect lists. https://sports.yahoo.com/people-report-metallic-taste-mouth-164917655.html
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May 9, 2021 21:39
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CaptainSarcastic posted:I don't know for sure how it works, but there may be a critical threshold for how many or how rigorous the reports need to be for inclusion on the list of side effects. Like, a metallic taste in the mouth is apparently a rare but known side effect that as far as I know doesn't show up on official side effect lists. Wow I got that after the first shot but not the second!
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May 9, 2021 21:47
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Spinz posted:Wow After my first Moderna shot I got extreme sound sensitivity as a side effect, but thankfully not after the second shot. I'm not sure if that would fall under "headache," but I guess it is technically "hyperacusis." It only lasted for a day or so, but was very unpleasant. I've only had it happen before after concussions or a couple of my most prize-winning hangovers.
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May 9, 2021 21:52
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I got my second shot at around 8:30AM on Friday. By 4PM, I was really sleepy but with no fever. After I woke up the next day, the entire day I had chills + a fever + tiredness + body ache + a headache, even when I went to sleep at 11:59PM on Saturday. Then I woke up at 9AM on Sunday and magically felt perfectly fine.
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May 9, 2021 21:55
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Castaign posted:I don't think that you can get a valid estimate of the odds of post-vaccinated death by multiplying residual risk of infection by CFR; that calculation assumes an initial infection risk of 100%. No one is assuming anything like that, the topic was expected CFR among vaccinated people (which already assumes that someone has become a case). Multiplying CFR by one minus vaccine effectiveness is reasonable for a back of the envelope approach because we're using the same likelihood function multiplier that the case rate uses - no one expects this to be a perfect model, but it's fine for the order of magnitude calculation that we wanted, e.g. "is dying of covid-19 while vaccinated closer to one in one million odds or one in one thousand?" This estimate suggests closer to one in one thousand, and that's verified by the huge Israeli study posted earlier on this page. That's all that really matters: that we understand that your likelihood of experiencing serious or deadly covid-19 does not reduce to 0 once vaccinated, and that big reductions in this likelihood are still further reduced with social distancing, mask wearing, etc. It's one more reason why vaccine passports are probably a stupid idea
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May 9, 2021 22:27
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