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AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Hello yes I am here

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AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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I'm spending this entire role draft twilight agonizing over the fact that I didn't pick 1,1

I am an absolute fool

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Oh my loving god

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




mason is honestly pretty good in this setup as long as not everyone who has it claims it, if I thought that anyone else might be thinking about it like dy maybe I would have tried harder to get it

anyways while dy is in some ways after my own heart in other ways I just woke up to day 1 and dy ranting about optimal play feels like it was 90% of what I read and I just, it's too early for this, I need peace, I need peace in this thread

##vote dy

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




dy. posted:

Also ugh sorry I knew it would come off like that and it feels gross but also I am right.

It's not too gross and you are objectively correct, lol

It's just that I woke up at 2 pm to a D1 that has been primarily strenuous objections to gameplay moves, and I find myself asking, where is the love?

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Why is anyone advocating voting Solus

Like is there a case or are a bunch of people just going "hey let's vote out our vig who is steadly growing more reliable for no reason"

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Wait gently caress I had a whole thing typed up but I just realized I might be wrong, let me recheck the rules

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Voodoofly posted:

Also, there may be situations where a player asks you to do something unusual. As such, there is NO STRICT RULE about posting actions in thread or in your confessional. On the other hand, if I think anyone is doing something just to be a jerk I'll modkill them. Use your judgment. Inquisitive actions are allowed although might be ignored. Tricking someone to post something is allowed so long as I can determine even a remotely decent reason to do it. Joke fake actions will be applauded or punished depending on how good they are. Please don't make me explain this further or change this rule.

Well I

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Okay, so as to not ask for an explanation, I will assume that the action was real given that it was neither applauded nor punished

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Under this assumption, we can say that Solus has a role with an unreliable daykill

Solus is therefore either

a) a firing squad
b) a lying faulty vig
c) a lying mystery role with an unreliable daykill

Firing Squad is by far the most likely assumption, so let's go with that

Under this assumption, Solus is a firing squad and all the world knows it

In that case, unless the case is very compelling, why not simply pressure Solus to use the remaining shot attempts in a boring, but pro-town way?

Basically, a proven ?-shot unreliable dayvig is at town's disposal, and I think that makes that vote a lower-priority one

I am not at all compelled by the "evidence" against Solus and have no real interest in wasting the resource that Solus represents based on one chaos move at the start of day 1

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




That said I would like Solus to post more because this ISO is basically exclusively content related to the dayvig attempt

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Sandwolf posted:

I agree with that analysis At-Low. At least for today. One question about firing squad cabinet, would Solus need to “retrieve” a gun first at night or do ya reckon he started with one?

I’m not sure it matters just didn’t know

My understanding of Firing Squad is as follows

There are 5 guns in the cabinet. 1 is loaded.

As a day action: you may fire 1 random gun from the cabinet.
As a night action: you may discard 1 unloaded gun from the cabinet.

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




In other words, assuming the night action is used successfully each night, tomorrow the shot will have a 60% chance of success, and the next day it will have a 100% chance of success.

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Wait no that's not math

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




33% then 100% lol

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Also


WHO SENT YOU

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Mr. Steak posted:

i am going to assume that solus had a faulty vig and that he is town alligned

Steak please at least read Solus's claim lol


Grandicap posted:

It's your name is discord when you join initially. You are stuck in my brain as Alex now, I can't explain it.

Yeah it's fine, I go by Alex normally it was just funny to see it

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




CCKeane posted:

Feels like you're assuming Solus is town with this.

To be more precise, I am refraining from assuming that Solus is scum.

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




CCKeane posted:

Right, but Solus used his ability in an anti town way.

Which made him a known quantity. We can just say "Hey Solus, use your ability in a pro-town way from now on or we vote you." If Solus is town, town controls a vig. If Solus is scum, Solus must confirm this inthread by going rogue, thereby giving us explicit confirmation that Solus is unwilling to cooperate with town.

Regardless of how much I would rather dayvigs save their D1 shots for vote leaders, given my admittedly limited understanding of site meta, I am not prepared to vote a likely firing squad based only on a first post chaos shot. If Solus posts scummy I'll vote Solus, but imo Solus has only posted ~shenanigans~ and I don't wanna rush this when we can just ask Solus to cooperate with town

Solus's actual content thus far is very dry of readable gameplay, and I'm just not gonna assume scum until I see opinions or some kind of non-chaos gameplay

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




CCKeane posted:

Ah gently caress it's Solus AND Grand I think.

Grandicap posted:

Yah, if solus flips scum I'm on board with going after AT-LOW.

I personally doubt that scum takes the 80/20 chance, but I'd like to hear more about where you're going with that, Keane.

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




dy. posted:

Why though? It's weird that you explored all of these scenarios and he is town in all of them.

I will note that this snipe of a post, leaping on to a burgeoning suspicion while seemingly not analyzing the post I made at all, is my official Least Favourite Post of the thread

First, Keane says that my post basically sounds like I'm arguing from a position that assumes Solus is town. Then, dy leaps in and tries to agree, but says something fundamentally different: that I explored multiple scenarios, and concluded that Solus was town in each one. But in two of my scenarios, I said that Solus was lying, and I specifically said that I wanted to pressure Solus into cooperating rather than trust that Solus is town. I can see why Keane's vibe reading might be off, because I'm refusing to assume that Solus is scum, but I have a harder time believing that dy would genuinely have misread my post's gameplay implications quite so much, given that dy clearly thinks about gameplay quite a lot.

I'll reread and all, mainly to go over how the dy situation developed and to see where the shift to a "dy and sw are probably both town" perspective I saw expressed happened, because honestly I've remained shaky on both: going hard on people playing objectively antitown is a great way to look town while not having to say anything about people looking subjectively scummy, while I also genuinely can't quite tell how much of Sandwolf's early posting he actually wants people to take seriously since it seemed like he was calling it serious with one breath and jokey with the next (also the toal comment was bad but I was fine with the others)

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




b-minus1 posted:

In this post Grandicap is lightly bussing his scumbuddy at low

That would only be a bus if Solus is going to flip scum

You believe that myself, Grandi, and Solus are all scum then?

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




dy. posted:

Cool summary.

I think this guy is scum.

I appreciate the complete change of tactics the second you get called out on a bad push lol

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Mr. Steak posted:

(also, warning about my horrendous sleep schedule. i may randomly go offline for several hours at almost no notice. on the other hand i may sometimes be active for longer than 24 hours at a time)

(i say this cuz its currently 5:45am)

I feel this, especially because it is currently 4:30 and I should be asleep like 5 hours ago

This is honestly one of the highest-content D1s I've seen in recent memory, so I'm excited to see how things develop when some of our quieter voices get chances to show up and chime in

And on the topic of quiet voices, Sal has two posts: a vanilla claim, and a post looking at a vig target and going "god I wish that were me"

I, uhh, I hope Sal is doing alright!

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




b-minus1 posted:

I think it’s a little early for all this setup spec.

1. Setup spec “I’m very curious about the specifics of this role, even though it’s d1 and ultimately none of this helps to determine alignment”
2. Hedging on a read “doesn’t look great, but...”
3. 3p hunting on d1
4. Referring to a previous game

Yep this reads like a scum post

This might also be the 4:30 speaking but I feel like I just had a revelation and I now completely understand binus's play and why he does everything he does

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




dy. posted:

I get that you're saying "there's not really anything to suggest that Solus is scum," and I actually agree - he could go either way and we don't really have the information to tell yet. But you laid out three scenarios, only one of which is likely, and in all of which, Solus is town, right? While you were listing unlikely scenarios, why wouldn't you have had one that is like "Solus is pulling a scum gambit?"

Solus is implicitly scum in both "lying" scenarios (and could go either way in the truthful one)

Mr. Steak posted:

i am going to assume that solus had a faulty vig and that he is town alligned

AT-LOW posted:

Steak please at least read Solus's claim lol

Hence this response, I thought that a fakeclaim was incompatible with town

In retrospect that isn't strictly the case, and fakeclaiming firing squad as a town when you realize your faulty vig is the bad one could be a way to draw the NK away from a useful role... as long as you're confident you're not going to get instantly cc'd and suspected, which a townie could not know with any certainty (given that the firing squad will likely want to fire D1 no matter what, maybe you could gamble on it not being in the game and if it is you can be like "well I only flushed out a role that was going to want to fire anyway")

In any case though, the point of the alt scenarios isn't to demonstrate alignment, it's to demonstrate that under the assumption that the resolved action was 100% real, the pool of what Solus could possibly be is incredibly small, and the most likely case by far is that Solus is actually the firing squad

My gripe with the Solus "case" is that it isn't based on scummy gameplay and is instead bending over backwards to eliminate what is almost certainly a power role that town could actually be getting some use out of

Do I think Solus is town? Of course not, everything Solus has done so far is NAI. But do I think Solus is scum? Of course not, everything Solus has done so far is NAI. The case is premature and it's advocating wasting a resource that we all but know is on the table.

Or, in other words, I do not agree with the concept of eliminating that role based on the information we have so far, when that role in particular is so open and easily controlled by the town as a whole

Of course, "the information we have so far" hasn't changed much, so I'll be glad to see it once Solus actually posts content instead of raw chaos

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




##Stumpify the Hum

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




merk posted:

Solus not coming back today at all is scummy thinking about it further.

This is absolutely correct. Solus must avoid appearing scummy today to survive, and going into a hard lurker nosedive is a potential strategy if you are very, very worried about saying the wrong thing. If Solus does not manifest by end of day, I am more than willing to either vote Solus or (if it winds up being an option) testify against Solus in lurker court, however that works.

That said

merk posted:

You can't shoot your shot, not really explain it, and then do nothing the rest of the day. I could see scum buddies telling Solus to stop posting to see where the day goes. That is definitely the smartest move as scum after taking that shot.

dy. posted:

- Solus's vig shot sucks if he is town. Pretty smart move if he's scum; no one is talking about him as an execution target right now.

This gave me a huge gut ping. Why do we have multiple people trying to say that Scum Solus played well when all Scum Solus has done so far is draw a lot of attention to himself and completely fail to recover?

When I thought about it, with my head, I realized that merk was saying that Solus looks scummy because retreating after that shot could be a solid scum strategy, but it's gone on long enough that merk is now suspicious, which makes sense

I haven't really felt that merk was scummy otherwise, and the biggest problem with dy's allegation here is that it has no basis in reality (whereas merk's post does), so for now I'm gonna say the vibe I got was wrong and they're not pushing the same bad narrative

(You can also say that dy's read on merk would make a lot of sense if they're colluding, but merk's play stands on its own so I'm not really prepared to call their synchronicity collusion at this time)

But this was a good reminder for me of that other dy comment disconnectedly praising Scum Solus. I am in no hurry to move my vote.

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




I feel like I'm getting a bit too laser-focused, though. I need to look more closely at like, steak/oa or something

Mr. Steak posted:

i literally just got done saying i wasn't gonna vote for people i think are scummy. but now i just may

Even if it means deciphering Mafia as arcane and esoteric as this

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Mr. Steak posted:

did you mean solus here....?

merk is now suspicious [of solus]

Mr. Steak posted:

and did you mean solus here too.....?

dy's read on merk [is "merk is town, except I never read merk as town! What's going on!?" which is saying merk is town while also preparing for merk to flip scum]

Mr. Steak posted:

i think you're trying to say that dy and merk are scum together, but it sounds like the post was written by a neural network lol

I'm saying I had a strong gut inclination towards it when they both appeared to praise Scum Solus, but when I actually dissect merk's posts I don't think merk is scum, so I'm not really prepared to accuse merk based solely on dy

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!





It's a 0-progress sentiment, yes

I just felt so strongly about it in the moment I read it that I wanted to post about it even after I reread the post and understood it was perfectly rational and not necessarily indicative of a similar mindset

If I was a mason I would probably put that kind of thing in the masonry, but for now thread is the best place to put my questionable ruminations

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Grandicap posted:

I feel like this is how AT-LOW posts in every game I've seen.

AT-LOW, have you been scum in recent memory so I can peruse that game?

I have literally never been scum on this website, I'm afraid

Hal Insandenza posted:

I agree, although maaaaaaybe I could see AT-LOW being a bit more... concerned about appearances?

However, Hal is very sharp! I am actively trying to concern myself less with appearances this game. If Hal noticed that, Hal probably has a good grasp on my play in general

If you'd like, Grandi, I could tell you what people offsite consider my scum meta, but that would be me telling you my scum meta and it would be discord Mafia vs. forum Mafia, so it would all have to be taken with several grains of salt

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Solus it's nice(?) you came back with scumreads but they're literally all based on your own situation, might you consider commenting on something else

You're also mistaken that I thought you were town but w/e I already went over that twice

CCKeane posted:

It's goofy to say "ah well if Solus just doesn't agree we execute him" when that doesn't really help town too much since a scum Solus would get a free kill.

Like, if you think he's scummy, that's not a compelling deal! Scum Solus kills town, gets executed, and scum get another night kill.

Right, which is why I proposed it on Solus's NAI game with anti-town ability use

As I said before and as Grandi is saying now, there's no point on doing it on a scummy player, you just vote them

But a player can easily anti-town first post vig regardless of their alignment, so given that there was no content yet and more potential vig, I proposed that we say "stop being anti-town or be voted" (rather than simply vote out of hand as some seemed ready to). A town player who cooperates will be more protown than before, while a scum player who wants to try and disguise scumminess as chaos will be struck by the vote contingency. A scum player who cooperates must be found out through content, which is how things normally are. It seemed like a workable scenario to me.

But Solus... hmm. What is this re-entry? Stream of consciousness analysis incoming

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Solus comes back full of bravado, acts like he is not at all on the back foot, sends out sus at a bunch of people based exclusively on his own situation, offers (to toal) to lurker vig toal

Why

Why show up and be both unconcerned and unhelpful

Is the idea that we're supposed to go "oh there's no way scum would come back with literally nothing prepared, they had a whole scumchat to help with that"?

For town Solus what's the deal, are we to assume town Solus has only bothered to look at his own situation and simply does not care about the thread's goings-on outside himself?

Every time I look at this re-entry it looks worse

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




SolusLunes posted:

the best reads come from other people casing you, because you already know your own alignment, which makes it easier to spot disingenuous cases

So you started from a position of "I need to have scumreads" not "I need to figure out what's going on this game"?

##vote SolusLunes

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




SolusLunes posted:

that's a pretty good assumption at this time, yes

You're being unhelpful on purpose!?

I'm sorry, but I physically cannot point at this and go "yeah, this is town", I just can't

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




SolusLunes posted:

you sure found ways to do it earlier in the thread, and that's why I'm suspicious of you

If you want to know what that's about, consider: reading my posts

Toalpaz posted:

okay apart from solus who is the scummiest person here AT-LOW

I have been on dy literally all day, and the next person I'm planning on looking into is random, I felt like the statistics post was the worst early poke at Solus and the statistics thing just came back

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

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Demon Summoning Program, execute!




dy. posted:

So my read on Solus is he is either playing an incredibly selfish and short-sighted town game or he is scum kind of trying to break all of the rules and come off as a townie for it because "scum wouldn't do that."

It does have a "too scummy to be scum" feeling for me and I prefer to call that kind of bluff

.random posted:

Solus is being almost intentionally non-cooperative. This strikes me as something town is far more willing to do.

This is the response Solus is looking for

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Voodoofly posted:

Deadline will be sometime Monday or Tuesday, to be determined.

Hallucinations... at 50%?

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AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!




Someone with nothing better to do please do something useless to hum thank you

Multiple someones if possible

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