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I actually worry about Kaelan's chances against AJ in a final. For one, Kaelen really wants AJ on the jury to vouch for that fact that he's been playing the whole time, and for two, I think in that match up they might just reward the guy who's been an out and proud troublemaker the whole time instead of the one who smiled to everyone's face and stabbed them in the back. Would love to be wrong though!
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Mar 26, 2025 01:35
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Pretty unique running a staged immunity challenge like that, but doing it all in one go instead of breaking up each section into it's own challenge. Without that, wouldn't get the unique 1on1 chat with JLP on the last stage. Also like the just pure RNG auction format instead of worrying about money and pretending like bidding matters.
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Mar 26, 2025 02:05
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Lt Jon Kavanaugh posted:E18: Kaelanchads stay winning, I think roping the host into your strategy is a first for survivor. Karins implosion was pretty incredible given that she could have saved herself by voting Zara and gotten another day in the game instead of just dooming herself. The jury is gonna be very bitter which if Kaelan makes it there against a player like AJ Myles or Logan is going to work in his favour. Also Paulie's jury looks are going to be iconic, dude looked like some sort of Egyptian god or something. Paulie just looks like half the Sydney gays I've seen, which is kinda funny. (Half of them look like gym bros.)
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Mar 26, 2025 04:48
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ApplesandOranges posted:Paulie just looks like half the Sydney gays I've seen, which is kinda funny. (Half of them look like gym bros.) He always reminds me of The Soup Nazi
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Mar 26, 2025 09:57
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I like the players gassing up the jury makeovers every tribal council.
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Mar 26, 2025 10:57
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E20: Boring pair of episode. Feels like a big missed opportunity to get rid of AJ here but what do I know. Big cojones episode for Myles, between saying the word in a confessional, getting his crotch blurred out, and not playing the idol.
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Mar 31, 2025 13:44
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Haven't watched E20, so maybe this is already wrong, but as of E19 I'm guessing (edit speculation): Myles beats Kaelan in the finale, with AJ going at 3 or 4. In Paulie's exit interview, he was talking about how charismatic and socially good AJ is, and if he ended up winning I don't think the show would go out of the way as it has to paint the exact opposite picture. I can't see anyone who's left but Myles or AJ winning with the edit disparity, but the fact that they're showing Kaelan's strategy in the late game makes me think they want him to seem like a credible contender at the end.
Leatherhead fucked around with this message at 13:03 on Apr 1, 2025 |
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Mar 31, 2025 16:28
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i also haven't watched e20 but honestly AJ has had this merge so on lock it's ridiculous. as bad as he was premerge hes been that good and more. I only see him losing if it's a f2 and someone else wins the challenge and bumps him out in 3rd. logan taking out karin was as dumb as it looked, everyone keeps running their games through AJ or crawling back to AJ. e19 Knowing it could go to rocks I thought Myles would play that idol for sure. Then if the vote is on him they win instantly, and if it's not then he's immune, kaelan is immune, the person getting the votes is immune and the other side is basically forced to cave if they're not suicidal. I didn't pick up on whatever pmom saw that indicated the logan side didn't know what rocks were going in. not surprised they were the weaker side though, kate and morgan basically never worked with anyone but AJ prior to this.
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Mar 31, 2025 16:47
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Fast Luck posted:e19 I didn't pick up on whatever pmom saw that indicated the logan side didn't know what rocks were going in. This was Jury Villa content, not on the actual show.
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Mar 31, 2025 17:24
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E19: AJ and Myles are having a ball, they're also a gift to the editors. It must be weird as the other players, you sit down watch the show with your family and realize you're barely in the show.
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Mar 31, 2025 18:44
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Pinterest Mom posted:E20: Boring pair of episode. Feels like a big missed opportunity to get rid of AJ here but what do I know. definitely a boring pair of episodes and j think the next two vote offs are going to be straightforward as well. Cheering for Kaelan to break the immunity record and heck, why not just win every immunity for the rest of the game.
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Mar 31, 2025 23:03
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Pinterest Mom posted:E20: Boring pair of episode. Feels like a big missed opportunity to get rid of AJ here but what do I know. It's often that Australian Survivor has these moments post merge. Where an alliance is just sticking together and the editors try to throw in some alternate storylines to try to make it interesting or give doubt that the majority alliance is just going to stay strong
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Apr 1, 2025 01:48
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Leatherhead posted:I'm slowly re-watching through Australian Survivor with a friend who hasn't seen it, and David winning Deal or No Deal Island is really inconvenient timing because we're at the end of Season 4, right before All Stars, and with all the press David's doing I feel like its inevitable the algorithm is gonna spoil my friend on his survivor win. If I recall, the only thing that makes the second half of All Stars interesting is the 'can David do it?' factor. Without that it's gonna be a slog. thank you for spoiling deal or no deal island while discussing not spoiling your friend and then spoiler tagging the episode, very consistent behavior
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Apr 1, 2025 05:41
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Funnily enough, I only had the last episode of Dondi left so there's probably not much point now.
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Apr 1, 2025 08:44
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Okay, I’ve finally caught up to episode 19. Was there ever a moment / reason Paulie was called a snake oil salesman, or was that a well placed title by another player to nuke his game? He had such a rough run this season and wouldn’t be mad if her came back for another shot.
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Apr 1, 2025 09:48
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DrVenkman posted:Funnily enough, I only had the last episode of Dondi left so there's probably not much point now.
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Apr 1, 2025 13:00
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Brass posted:thank you for spoiling deal or no deal island while discussing not spoiling your friend and then spoiler tagging the episode, very consistent behavior poo poo, I'm sorry. Somehow that didn't even cross my mind, I guess because the Internet immediately spoiled me when I don't even watch DONDI. I've removed the first half of my post if you want to edit your quote for anyone else's sake.
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Apr 1, 2025 13:10
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Discussing up through e20 here... It's interesting there have been multiple points where people came really very close to giving us an entirely different end game. First, at the Karin vote... Kristin could've just flipped her own vote to send out Zara. She didn't have to tell Karin, and even once she did, Karin didn't have to blow it all up. Imagine if Karin who hates AJ was in the game now instead of Zara who is going into rocks scenarios with him. Logan also said on her exit interview that her real plan was to get Zara out there and she was thinking the same way as Kristin there. Then you have the 4-4 tie that didn't end in rocks. Once Kate and Morgan voted into a tie on the revote, the only way to avoid rocks was a unanimous decision. As Chappelle ranted like a madman about on RHAP, they should've gone to rocks and even more specifically, Kristin really should've gone to rocks. And even if Kate and Morgan didn't want to, it doesn't matter because it has to be unanimous, she could just say sorry everyone I can't vote Logan out here and then we get the rocks. AJ or Myles draw the rock and now you're on the leading side of things and can actually win! Morgan or Kate draw the rock? That's better than Logan going home for you, takes some power away from AJ, and you still have Logan out in front of you. All in all fully worth the risk. In ep 20, Myles made a good counterargument against Zara flipping (going from potentially the bottom of one four to definitely the bottom of another isn't an upgrade)... but it's really not that simple because the game resets after votes. If Zara voted out AJ or Myles there and then they get another guy out after, everyone is incentivized to turn against Kate and Morgan at 5, because they're dual immunity threats who will bring each other to the end. Then after one of them goes, everyone probably wants to swing back and take out the remaining guy who's gonna be a winner threat. It ping pongs. It still can do that even voting out Kristin instead, but those guys may all want to go to 3 or 4 together and even regardless of what they want, they're all such massive jury threats you need to start taking them out now. I don't mean to diminish what AJ and the other men have been doing, but the others have had chances to say the least.
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Apr 1, 2025 15:33
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Fast Luck posted:Then you have the 4-4 tie that didn't end in rocks. Once Kate and Morgan voted into a tie on the revote, the only way to avoid rocks was a unanimous decision. As Chappelle ranted like a madman about on RHAP, they should've gone to rocks and even more specifically, Kristin really should've gone to rocks. And even if Kate and Morgan didn't want to, it doesn't matter because it has to be unanimous, she could just say sorry everyone I can't vote Logan out here and then we get the rocks. AJ or Myles draw the rock and now you're on the leading side of things and can actually win! Morgan or Kate draw the rock? That's better than Logan going home for you, takes some power away from AJ, and you still have Logan out in front of you. All in all fully worth the risk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnEafqfe46I&t=816s It sounds like Logan had this exactly figured out. Her plan was "don't tell Kate+Morgan was rocks are, rely on them to just stay strong through the revote, but *do* explain to Kristin how rocks work and make the pitch to her that it's the best thing for her game." But Kristin got taken out of the pre-vote scramble by a wasp's sting and Logan didn't get to make that pitch ahead of TC. She still should have made it more forcefully *at* TC, but she had the pieces. Dugong posted:Okay, I’ve finally caught up to episode 19. Was there ever a moment / reason Paulie was called a snake oil salesman, or was that a well placed title by another player to nuke his game? He had such a rough run this season and wouldn’t be mad if her came back for another shot. We saw AJ (seemingly deliberately to plant the idea) call him that multiple times in the post-shuffle tribe, that's where it came from. The guy is being absolutely toxic in the Jury Villa eps, I'm not sure they'll ever bring him back. Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 16:40 on Apr 1, 2025 |
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Apr 1, 2025 16:30
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Pinterest Mom posted:The guy is being absolutely toxic in the Jury Villa eps, I'm not sure they'll ever bring him back. What's he up to in the Villa? He never looks happy at Tribal
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Apr 1, 2025 17:49
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https://streamable.com/9nyj6s He's been grilling the players in a really unpleasant way when they get voted out. Here's the E20 boot's jury villa.
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Apr 1, 2025 18:09
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Holy smokes, he goes in hard! Game's over, pal
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Apr 1, 2025 19:00
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Yeah that's some lovely behaviour.
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Apr 3, 2025 17:06
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Ep21: gently caress yes Kaelan! World record holder for individual immunity challenges (I think, unless some random country version of survivor has someone with 6 or more wins, think 5 was the record for Aus, US, SA and NZ). Other than that very boring episode, the twist was never going to spice things up. No credits talking head from Morgan is huge, I feel like she's been incredibly hard done by by the editors.
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Apr 6, 2025 11:37
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Lt Jon Kavanaugh posted:Ep21: gently caress yes Kaelan! World record holder for individual immunity challenges (I think, unless some random country version of survivor has someone with 6 or more wins, think 5 was the record for Aus, US, SA and NZ). Other than that very boring episode, the twist was never going to spice things up. No credits talking head from Morgan is huge, I feel like she's been incredibly hard done by by the editors. Not about the episode, but spoiler-ing to be safe: 5 was the record in a season for English-language survivor; it might not be for the world, because some of the other formats are ludicrous. The record holder might be someone like Turbo (of The Challenge fame), who won 2 back-to-back seasons, which were 112 and 132 days respectively. They still only had 22-players though, so maybe no more challenges than usual. The wiki info is pretty sparse, but he's listed as winning 144 challenges across his 3 seasons, you gotta figure a fair number of those were immunities.
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Apr 6, 2025 13:49
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e21 me when JLP says tonight is going to be a little bit different: nooooooooo When it's still an elimination night but we're getting an extra immunity: oooh cool when Kate wins: alright let's go! 5 seconds later: wait a second arghh now it's a straight vote on Morgan so Kaelan can't flip it even if he wants to, after Myles practically begged him to do it. Kaelan had a ton of reasons to vote Myles there if there was a split happening. I don't really tihnk he would've done it but i wish he would've at least had the chance Let's see, he knows Myles is coming for him.. but if he takes out Myles, can he really expect loyalty from K/M next vote? No. Would he lose AJ? idk. He already lost Zara. Is he toast if he loses immunity regardless??
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Apr 7, 2025 03:33
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E22: Laurel-rear end move. 2-1-1-1 is badass but I think this moves Zara down to "loses to Kaelan in a F2".
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Apr 7, 2025 22:40
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e22 Australian Survivor does this kind of edit sometimes that I don't remember really seeing in US Survivor in which they heavily tip a huge, massive boot throughout the episode. You'd think that would take the air out of it but man it just ramps up the suspense and I was really on pins and needles watching this whole episode play out waiting for AJ to get blindsided. I felt the same way when George queued up the blindside on Shonee. Of course in that case, Shonee didn't play the idol and it went through and in this case, Zara flinched and didn't pull the trigger. I don't know what Zara's doing. I feel like she's drawing super dead here. She's obsessed with being able to win the F3 immunity for some reason, or so it seems to me, so as soon as she saw Kate actually had listened to Myles she decided that was dangerous and reverted back to wanting Kate out I guess, since her heart wants that F3 immunity. I wonder what AJ was thinking when he said, "Oh, I see," I wonder if he figured out what the vote would've been or if he had some other idea in his head. Also Morgan quitting from the jury I think now shows us why they purpled her so hard. Feels like she only was sticking around at all for Kate's sake.
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Apr 7, 2025 23:03
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Man though Myles was literally crying over this boot and then she leaves him in the lurch, come on. I guess if she brings him to the end she can say she has this over him but F4 with AJ and Kaelan still there… she’s pretty cooked?? Okay, what she could still do... is tell everyone to take out Myles at 4, win the FIC, and take out AJ at 3, say I took out Myles and AJ. Or even if Kaelan beats her in the last challenge, try to get him to take her and say the same thing. But she seemed to say she did want to be at the end with Myles. Not that I advise that, but she just made that really, really hard with this move! Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Apr 7, 2025 |
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Apr 7, 2025 23:09
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Fast Luck posted:e22 I don't know, Morgan quitting from the jury kind of adds to the speculation of something going wrong between Ben and Morgan. I was wondering why she didn't get a post vote out confessional. There's a possible and maybe believable story on Reddit, but just speculation so not going to keep it going around.
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Apr 8, 2025 01:13
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I think something happened there too, but there’s no Ben in the jury. There’s not even any Jesse or PD in the jury. So the fact she’d quit from there but not from the game itself, what’s the difference? I think just helping Kate. Only 2 brawn on the jury lol
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Apr 8, 2025 12:15
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Regarding Ben/Morgan (spoilers for the season to date/speculation incoming): The rumour is that Ben was singing songs around camp that contained the N word. Morgan got uncomfortable. Production ask Ben to stop and he doesn't. Production tell him he can stop doing it or he can leave and he decides to leave. Morgan, still annoyed by the thought that production didn't act soon enough or take it seriously then kind of blows up. She doesn't want to participate but relents when Production talk to her. She initially refused to join the jury villa but I believe has since agreed, maybe... I don't know how true the particulars are. But I think it's probably right in that Ben was behaving a certain way, production gives him a light slap on the wrist and Morgan kind of blows up about it. She's had no final words segment, she hasn't mentioned her time on social media at all.
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Apr 8, 2025 14:08
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DrVenkman posted:Regarding Ben/Morgan (spoilers for the season to date/speculation incoming): Not to derail the thread entirely with unsubstantiated rumors, but this narrative fits a couple things we do know: 1. Morgan is clearly extremely pissed at the show. 2. The Ben 'quit' was really weird. 3. Based on his social media activity, Ben is a douchebag. Since the rumor is that Morgan was eventually coaxed back to the jury, we can sort of verify whether the source has any credibility if she makes a return.
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Apr 8, 2025 14:25
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Yea wasn't sure if we should drag the unconfirmed rumors into the thread. But it is a pretty logical explanation for both Ben & Morgan's exits not really having any information provided by production. A situation where someone isn't clearly in the wrong, but causing enough friction to get removed. Haven't tried to dig too deep on it though, since you'll probably spoil the winner if you search too hard (see the post above for potential spoilers being found)
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Apr 9, 2025 00:33
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Though at this point it's probably not overly hard to guess the winner (or likely winner), I'm hoping for somebody to win but not surprised if another does.
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Apr 9, 2025 02:32
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e23 The way Zara was feeling it after that imo bad move, and with AJ and Myles gassing her up so much for it, pretty funny seeing her immediately go out here. Also the recap reminded me how amped everyone got when they saw the vote against AJ come up, so when they were talking about how amazing it was i think they were all mistaken and that myles's failure probably played better than her success. I'm not sure if it was her plan when she voted Kate to immediately turn around after that to take out Myles. if she intended on still moving forward with Myles then Myles being immune here and her going home proves her plan sucked. But if it was her plan to boot Myles at 4 and then, we have to hope, to win the last immunity and take out AJ and go up against Kaelan... not that bad a plan i suppose, but also pretty nice for Kaelan. I don't know if he'd do it, but imagine if he then won the FIC instead and took out AJ, it pretty much flips whose story it really is. And if he won the FIC and took out Zara, well, even worse. Another reason why I think the Kate vote was bad was because Zara could've then voted out Kate at 4 and Myles at 3, and i think she's got a real winning shot. But to be fair to her, if she wanted Myles out at 4 and him winning immunity thwarted that plan, how about if she'd followed his way and wanted Kate out at 4, and Kate had won immunity? Would she have had a better shot at surviving? Well, I think so, but it's really hard to say. If Kate wants to maximize her f3 challenge odds, she probably wants to vote Zara. Does Myles accept that or try to vote Kaelan with Zara to help beat Kate at f3? In any case now that we're one vote away from it and it's pretty clear: Kaelan is going into a F3 with both AJ and Myles. He's in a really bad spot. He's not winning. and not a mastermind. If he did win FIC and cut AJ you could argue he knew what he was doing all along, but he has a losing finalist edit, so as viewers we know if he did that it would just mean he's losing to Myles. He's losing regardless, leaning toward a Myles win one way or the other based on edit... funny I'm kind of rooting for Myles even though it's clear AJ played a more powerful game with Myles needing a post-merge idol and immunity to survive and with AJ controlling more votes and having more key relationships (esp with Kate and Morgan).
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Apr 14, 2025 03:40
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Finale: There was no way anyone other than Myles was gonna win but I wish Kaelan had got more votes. He set the immunity challenge record and then broke it, I don't think we'll see his record equalled let alone broken. Season was enjoyable but pretty easily slots into the bottom tier of Aus survivor seasons, aus vs the world should be a good palette cleanser. Please don't let AJ near survivor ever again.
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Apr 14, 2025 12:15
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I loved this season, and I'll love to see basically anybody who made the merge from the Brains tribe play again. For how sloppy AJ's game was, it's incredible that he came within one Kaelan meltdown of winning. The only real suspense in the finale was "how well is Kaelan going to pull off FTC", and turns out not so well, but I loved the episode anyway. The boys' relationship was so sweet, and I loved JLP and AJ both flirting with Kaelan's mom! Happy to have bought Myles stock early, I think Kaelan wasn't wrong to say he played a better game than Myles but it's so much more emotionally satisfying to see Myles win. Fast Luck posted:e23 I wonder how dead he was really drawing. I thought he had strong sparks of a real argument at FTC, but he ultimately fumbled the last two TCs. Coming out at FTC with "I've actually been a mastermind and there are no flaws to my game" was too much for the jury to swallow. If he'd done his coming out and given his opening statement at the F3 TC, decisively cut AJ, and given the jury a few proof points to stew on and compare notes about for a night ("I kept AJ and Karin from coming at each other post-swap", "I leaked Logan's idol", "I let everybody think I was dumb, like for example when I did mock FTC speeches with Kristin"), well. I guess I don't really think he *wins* with that, but he gets more votes. Ambushing people at FTC with this new idea of himself and expecting them to immediately turn around and vote for him, that was probably a bridge too far, let alone the overselling/lack of humility.
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Apr 14, 2025 14:54
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I really loved that FTC. I never had any real hope of Kaelan winning, but I wanted him to confidently articulate his game, which he did. In a lot of ways their performances were microcosms of their entire games, where Myles showed he was better at adapting and making hay out of misfortune (owning his mistakes / poor social game) while Kaelen had a strong argument that he tried to bulldoze through without noticing when the wheels came off. Even if he (probably) made the right choice at Final 3, he certainly didn't do himself any favors in vacillating over which one to take; that's a huge self-own when your pitch is "I executed a perfectly planned game". I'm still glad he didn't get shut out. If Survivor AU ever makes it to a second Heroes v Villains, he and AJ have pretty much written their tickets for those tribes respectively. Leatherhead posted:as of E19 I'm guessing (edit speculation): Myles beats Kaelan in the finale, with AJ going at 3 Probably not the hardest edit to read but I'm giving myself the points.
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Apr 14, 2025 19:28
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finale I guess not everyone feels the same, but I thought this was a great season, and the winner had one of the best stories we've ever seen on Survivor. Kaelan raised some interesting philosophical points about what makes a strong game, and after the opening speech I thought he had at least made a compelling case. The main high points were: the best physical performance of all time, the better social play of the two finalists, always knew where the votes were going and helped make them happen by using information he gathered while being overlooked, always safe and never extremely at risk unlike Myles who got lucky a few times. I think when he got into the "repeatable" line of argument, he opened himself up for the attacks that would pretty much dismantle his pitch. Basically, congratulations on successfully hiding, but maybe the jury should vote for the player who didn't hide, yeah? Myles used the small betting poker analogy and then AJ came in with the disappeared behind your shields attack for the fatal blow. I actually do like the repeatable argument, but it has to be applied by someone like AJ who just dominated post-merge, so when people scrutinize the why of it being repeatable they find positive things instead of negative. One thing that I've loved about recent Australian Survivor is seeing these huge playing people make it so deep into the game (and winning now twice in a row). If I want that kind of play to continue, I did kind of want Kaelan to lose, but on the other hand, AJ correctly articulating that Kaelan needed to attack at 5 or so is advice future players can follow to prevent this kind of amazing win. Here's some disjointed thoughts: -Kaelan felt almost in the Ken from MvX season in the end, where if he brought his best friend who played the best game to the end, 99% chance he's losing and the friend wins, but if he cuts his best friend, he can get it to only a 90% chance he loses. I guess it's still right to cut the friend but it probably feels cruddy afterward when you get 0/1 vote. At least in Kaelan's case he really loved both guys. -Loved AJ calling out Myles's dragon analogy being good but bs conflicting with his vote on AJ at F5, because I had the same thought -Was a little sad to hear from AJ lecture Kaelan on needing to discard his shields because that's exactly what he was counting on Kaelan doing himself, and now he's disparaging Kaelan's game for doing it... not wrongly, I should say, but I do feel like they (including Kaelan) completely excised from FTC the friendships they had and the intense emotional bonds that surely played a part. -On that subject, Kaelan told Myles before the F4 immunity challenge that he had his back as long as Zara didn't win. I wonder if that was true, but I do think it was. -Also on that subject, it might have been better for Kaelan to admit friendship was a factor than to keep insisting he played a perfect game. I think once he picked up he was in trouble he started digging in too hard and making it worse. There's likely a lot of temptation to not give a point away because you feel like, if you do, you're almost admitting they shouldn't vote for you. Myles did similar when tried to argue he had a better social game than Kaelan and nobody believed it, but of course Myles didn't feel like he could ever openly say that Kaelan played both a better social game and a better physical game--although he did and everyone knew it! They just preferred the guy who played the bigger game.
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Apr 15, 2025 01:15
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