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Your 2021-2022 Ohio State Buckeyes Last Year Despite arguably one of the 3-4 worst pass defenses of my lifetime, Ohio State made the title game for the 5th time in 20 years and went 7-1. In the worst pandemic of the modern era, this felt a little bit like ashes in my mouth while white knuckling through a season of a defense attempting to handicap what felt like an unstoppable passing game at points. Does this mean I didn't celebrate finally beating the poo poo out of Clemson? No. But like everything in the pandemic, it feels like a half measure where we collectively failed as a society to care for those around us in favor of desperately pretending life is normal. Anyways, we have a vaccine so here's sports, and for better or worse (probably worse), I don't feel quite as gross about watching? (Disclaimer: Delta is real you goddamn idiot--get a shot and get everyone around you to get a shot. If Lane Kiffin can do it, so can you.) Key Departures QB Justin Fields RB Trey Sermon G Wyatt Davis TE Luke Farrell C Josh Myers DE Jonathon Cooper CB Shaun Wade LB Baron Browning LB Pete Werner LB Justin Hilliard LB Tuf Borland (oh my god finally) State of the Program I think we can officially say Day is good at this? He's at least no worse than RIley. Recruiting is the best it's ever been, even over early Urban. The offense continues to impress, although the running game at points last year looked like an attempt to mash some square pegs into round holes. I have essentially zero doubt these teams will score which is a welcome change. It's still arguably a "Pro Spread" which is a meaningless term that just means they have the same staple air raid/spread/one back concepts that every passing game does alongside wide, mid, and tight zone plays along with some typical Power/Counter packages. There's nothing inherently interesting about it from a scheme standpoint, because Day builds a scheme around his personnel every year and will change base runs/passes to suit guys just like Belichick reinvents his defense every matchup. The biggest question is the defense, for like the 3rd-4th time in the last 8 years. They brought Coombs back from the NFL as a defensive playcaller for the first time ever with the mandate to essentially run a Cover 1/3 hybrid system out of a mixture of 4-3 and 4-2-5. In theory, this makes a lot of sense. Changing the personnel but keeping the calls and terminology the same is a good way to account for a league where you have to worry about Wisconsin and Penn State both, since the fit rules won't change--just the guys out there. From the conferences and info that released (as well as the install playbook that leaked), it's very very obvious that this was a duct tape job last year in light of the lack of camp. If you watch the coverage packages, calls, and run fits, you see a first-time playcaller having to call a defense that was still 85% Jeff Hafley's design and calls. Jeff Hafley was a great DC, and Coombs has claim to one of the 2-3 best CB coaches alive, but the two have very very different takes on coverage and fit philsophies. Coombs is a press guy who loves when corners bully receivers who has the tendency popularized by Saban to solve tough games by going to Cover 1 and daring you to beat his talent while handing them different adjustments for each of their matchups. He'll play 2-read, Cover 3, or even Press Quarters, but he's always going to err on the side of being reductive and teaching techniques over situational plays. Hafley is a guy who wanted versatile schemes that told players exactly what to do with morphing coverages and traps laid out for a QB while constantly making calls that tilt things around. If you're comparing them as playcallers, Coombs calls games like anyone off the Dantonio or Saban trees where Hafley calls things like guys off the Patterson tree that still likes what man coverage can do but finds it limiting in certain matchups. One teaches a defense how to win a matchup; one teaches guys what to do. Neither is a wrong approach, but it's also akin to when NFL teams change would change from 3-4 to 4-3 bases--everyone lines up differently, has different rules, and prioritize different things. Coombs clearly struggled to ape Hafley's approach, and this is a big year for proving whether or not he's going to survive as a playcaller here or if there's going to be an Ash/Fickell moment like the program had in '13. Position Groups Quarterback This is a paragraph that's likely going to age poorly, but here goes. There are presently 3 QBs on campus, all with an alleged chance to start. CJ Stroud is a RS FR who arguably is the clubhouse leader as a late commitment from the 2020 cycle following a breakout year that ended with him in the elite 11. He falls in the category of not quite being fast enough to be a true dual threat, but he's got enough mobility to do the Troy Smith/late Fields play extension to open the field--good velocity on his throws but not Justin or Cardale by any stretch, more of a Haskins type that just naturally has velocity but doesn't just carry in air forever. His compatriot in that year is Jack Miller, who was Day's first QB commit in like 2017. When healthy, he's a decent runner who's more of a touch/accuracy passer in the mold of a Guiton or similar low ceiling/high floor guys, but he's also prone to injury and has by far the lowest upside in this pen. Kyle McCord is a true freshman who is probably the closest thing to a true pocket passer we have. Given what Day did with Haskins, I would expect the offense would likely change to become far more pass happy than normal with him, given that he likely would have the biggest arm on campus since Cardale, but he doesn't move the best although he's got size. Then there's the wrench in the plan. 2022 5* QB and mullet user Quinn Ewers reclassified to 2021 and in enrolling in the next week or so. How good is he? He was immediately made the top recruit in '21 without a second thought. He's unquestionably going to be the most talented guy in this room, having McCord's caliber of arm but moving like Stroud and with Miller's touch. He's also 17, should be in high school, and the biggest QB prospect since Lawrence/Fields. I have no idea what exactly he's going to inject into this situation, but I just can't imagine Day leaving him on the bench if he's here, even if he takes a few weeks to learn the basic offense. If I had to guess, he's going to end up the backup almost immediately, and it will not shock me if Day gives whoever wins the job out of camp the Kelly Bryant treatment towards the end of the year in favor of Ewers, assuming the hype pans out. As such, if I had to guess, the depth chart will start with Stroud, but Quinn is going to play and could be starting by midseason. Stroud/Ewers McCord Miller Running Back All-name first teamer Master Teague returns! He is widely expected to be RB3. This is partly a knock on his ability to ever run outside the Ts or have vision and partly a statement that the rest of this room got a lot better. Miyan Williams flashed a bit this past year but appears to be putting the pressure on to start at RB1. He's probably the biggest back since Hyde and runs with better vision than Teague, which makes Master potentially redundant in goal line situations. Both probably play, but Teague's not getting the carries to make All Big 10 this year. The new guy to watch is Treyveon Henderson--the single biggest RB recruit since Zeke or Beanie Wells. He's still filling out a bit and probably not ever going to be the power back that Teague or Williams are, but he's the fastest RB I can remember on this team since freshman Zeke before he added the 20 pounds it took to shoulder the starting load. He's widely expected to be the team's returner right now as well and will be a home run threat at all times, particularly on edge runs or trap plays that involve a quick cutback. He's joined by fellow true freshman Evan Pryor, who's going to be used similarly to Jordan Hall or Dontre Wilson at first, as a hybrid weapon that's comfortable catching or running out of the backfield. Pryor's purely a home run guy at the moment but is going to be useful in passing downs to spell Henderson, since even Dobbins sucked in the passing game. Marcus Crowley appears like a potential award winner for the Brandon Saine "Guy who will break out this year but never does" aware yet again. He's a competent do-everything back, but that might equate to little burn with this many specialists. If I had to guess depth chart, it's below, but really all 3 of the top guys could see 80-100 carries this year. Williams Henderson/Teague Pryor/Crowley Wide Receiver Chris Olave should probably be in the NFL right now. I don't really understand why he came back, but he did. He's probably the best deep threat/receiver in the country this year. Garrett Wilson, after playing in the slot last year, is moving back outside to replace the now departed for Bama Jameson Williams, who flashed deep threat potential but just never quite put it all together. Olave/Wilson is the best 1/2 in the country, and it's probably not close, with both being 1000 yard receiving threats this year (assuming they don't sit the second half all the time). In the slot is emerging start Jaxon Smith-Njigba who had the catch of the year last year and I believe is the leading receiver in Texas HS history. He's not a pure burner but has the annoying shiftiness to make the rest of the league miserable. Behind these 3 are #1 WR in the '20 class Julian Fleming, who is finally healthy and likely to be a one and done next year without Chris and Garrett assuming the OBJ comparison holds true, #1 WR in the '21 class Emeka Egbuka who is a 6'5" slot receiver and maybe the freakiest guy on the field, and '21 recruit Marvin Harrison Jr. This is a really really miserable room if you're a big 10 secondary coach. Kamryn Babb is apparently injured for the 3rd season in a row but is so talented that he almost always reps with the 2s whenever he's healthy, and Jayden Ballard is the only other scholarship WR on the team right now because the room's a little thin after transfers this year. It likely won't matter. X Olave/Fleming/Ballard Z Wilson/Harrison/Ballrd Y/H Smith-Njigba/Egbuka/Babb (if healthy)/Evan Pryor (has repped with WRs at points in practice) Tight End This is the year we throw to the TE!!! In all likelihood, probably not, but maybe. Jeremy Ruckert is held up as the greatest TE prospect Urban ever recruited which includes erm...that guy. He's good for 2-3 circus TD catches a year and is a really good blocker as well. He's capable of being the 3rd receiving threat in this offense, but who knows. This lifestyle worked for OJ Howard at Bama I guess. Behind him is Cade Stover, a converted LB/RB commit who appears to be the heir apparent to the "we'll totally throw to this guy!!! (5 targets all year)" treatment Ruckert has gotten every year. He's a scary athlete but still new to the position. Gee Scott Jr. converted from WR to TE in a bid to see the field and thus is playing at like 6'2 235 here which is going to be interesting. He could be more of an H-Back than a true TE but who knows. Joe Royer is the 4th string here and entirely a long-term potential play. Check back on him after another year of weights. Ruckert Stover Scott Royer OL The deepest OL probably ever at this school. Most people were shocked Thayer Munford came back, and I believe he's on track to potentially break the record for starts at OSU this year. This is coupled with #1 OT from 2018 Nick Petit-Frere finally keeping above 300 for the first season, 370 LB IN Mr. Basketball Dawand Jones playing well as a backup OT, and #1 OT from 2020 Paris Johnson emerging late last year. That's 4 guys who could all potentially start at T right now. Harry Miller is the lone returning interior OL, playing okay at G last year and poorly at C. If any of these guys are likely to lose a starting spot, it's probably him. The chatter from camp is that the T crew is so talented that they're probably going to move Munford, who has been the LT since 2018, to G. I reiterate, the guy who has been a LT for like 38 starts is moving inside. Paris Johnson will be as well for a year. The backup guys are good but just not in the same league yet: Matthew Jones has yet to break out and is a perpetual backup, Enokk Vimahi and Luke Wypler are both talented movers but don't have the sheer size that the first 5 do, and Donovan Jackson could probably start in a pinch but is still just a true freshman. This is going to be a very interesting year, but I'm expecting this line to be able to do whatever they want to pretty much anyone. The only hurdle I see right now is that they're going against Kayvon Thibodeaux in week 2, and I'm still not sure that one dude is going to be enough with this crew. LT Petit-Frere/Vimahi LG Munford/Jones C Miller/Wypler RG Johnson/Jackson RT Jones/Toutant DL And you thought the receiving room was mean spirited. Tyreke Smith generated some of the highest pressure stats in football last year with very little to show for it, as did Zach Harrison who is still such a freak of nature he has claim to being a top 5 goal line fade receiver on this team somehow. Javontae Jean-Baptiste is likely first guy off the bench, as a long-term conversion from S/LB to DE has make him a size/speed freak who's been learning the technique over time. What's hilarious here are the true freshmen--Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimolalau. They're DE2 and DE 3 in the '21 class, and Sawyer has been called the next Bosa brother by every beat reporter covering the team. I would expect both to be the immediate backups/rotation pieces by the end of the year, but Tuimolalau in particular just got to campus. Sawyer looked like a freak in the spring game already. Noah Potter, Darrion Henry-Young, and Cormontae Hamilton all probably rotate here but aren't going to be playing huge minutes. DT is a different story. Haskell Garrett might be the best pure 3-tech pass rusher in the country, but I really don't know who play Nose now. Antwuan Jackson has never put it together despite his size since transferring in from Auburn, and he's like 24 now. Jerron Cage is big enough but not known as a particularly disruptive guy. Taron Vincent is good but far more of a 3-tech pass rusher than a nose, meaning he'd be out of position. It won't be a huge shock if Tyleik Williams or Ty Hamilton emerge here as a sudden 1-tech just off of the fact that there's just not a big pipeline of guys huge DTs on the roster right now. DE Harrison/Jean-Baptiste/Tuimolalau DE Smith/Sawyer/Potter 3-Tech Garrett/Vincent/Hamilton NT Cage/Jackson/Williams LBs Good riddance Tuf Borland. Really though, losing 4 LBs who all played big minutes is unnerving, because it invites the question "what if the guys on the roster already were somehow worse than those dudes". Browning was an amazing cover/rush LB who couldn't tackle for poo poo. Hilliard would've been an all-american if he was ever health. Werner was good. The scheme still treats like all these dudes as interchangeable, so it really doesn't make sense to use the OLB/MLB terminology anymore It's widely expected that Teradja Mitchell is MLB/OLB 1 with a bullet. Dallas Gant played a lot next to him as well but is showing to be a bit of a liability against big fronts. Cody Simon has emerged as a likely LB3 having passed K'Vaughn Pope on the chart. All of them are more traditional, rangy LBs than the weird specialist crew of years prior, but very few have played big minutes. Realistically, 2 of the 4 will be on field at most times. Mitchell Melton and Tommy Eichenberg both are huge strong run defenders who could easily jump up to LB2/3 if Gant or Simon prove suspect in run fits. MLB/SLB Mitchell/Eichenberg WLB Gant/Pope MLB/WLB Simon/Melton Bullet For like 3 years, we've heard about this dumb S/LB hybrid position that never got used because the LB room was bloated and the secondary got dinged up. They might actually use it this year. Assume they replace the third LB in most nickel situations at the moment, given that we're going to play a lot of cover 1 and use a S in coverage. Craig Young is a S/LB hybrid who's about 230 and covers better than any of the LBs but isn't a known quantity in run fits. Lathan Ransom and Kourt Williams both are slightly smaller (210-220ish) but cover more like CBs and tackle well for their size. I expect all 3 of these guys to play with Young/Williams more in running downs and Ransom as a passing down guy. Expect a dime package that brings two on the field at once. Secondary CBs were a dumpster fire last year. Wade was never healthy. Brown blew an achilles. Banks is good but not a CB1. All of them were being asked to play soft techniques by a guy who strongly prefers press and physicality. They never had a chance of being good last year. Wade's gone, but Brown is healthy as is Banks. Brown has the physical profile of a CB1 under Coombs as a 4.3 guy, and Banks has reasonable speed but is liable to need safety help at points. Ryan Watts may supplant Banks if he's not healthy, and he's a long, physical corner in the Coombs mold who will play boundary corner very very well. Marcus Williamson is back but looks abysmal in the slot last year to where he got replaced by true freshmen. Yearly failed breakout RB Demario McCall has been repping at outside CB and apparently looks like an okay choice? Some mixture of the freshmen among Denzel Burke, Jakalin Johnson, Cam Martinez, and Lejond Cavazos will emerge as the next batch of guys. This group is really bizarre and hard to project. I think the seniority will account for something, but don't be surprised if Banks and Williamson get passed quickly this year. FC: Brown/McCall/Burke/Johnson BC: Banks/Watts/Hancock Slot: Williamson/Martinez/Cavazos Specialists The recruited kicker curse continues. After the Sean Nurenberger experience years ago, Jake Seibert came in as a heralded kicker recruit who can't beat a Duke transfer for kicking duties! We have a new Aussie punter which owns. Schedule @ Minnesota -- W 38-17, I think Fleck is a decent coach, and this looks worse than I want it to with the Minnesota OL in good shape, but that offense isn't going to be able to take advantage of this secondary well enough to scare me, and there isn't a guy in their defensive backfield on par with Winfield Jr from a few years ago who can actually cover the 2-deep at WR. Oregon - W 35-14, Ordinarily, I wouldn't want a piece of Oregon this early with how their DL looks, but this is the best I've felt about an OSU OL going into a season in years. Thibodeaux is good and probably good for 1-2 sacks this game, but OSU has no shortage of Ts. Factor in that Oregon's missing some defensive starters for Fulmer Cup reasons and relying on Anthony Brown at QB, and I feel okay here. Tulsa - W 56-7, Tulsa has a cool 3-3-5 defensive structure, but that's not going to save them from whatever vanilla running scheme we bring to this. With Oregon the week before, we'll have shown enough in that game that we're not going to be holding a bunch of plays back. Akron - W 63-3, Looking forward to seeing what Ewers looks like in this game. @ Rutgers - W 35-21, I don't think this is that Rutgers is super competent, but Schiano's enough of a personnel guy to make this game more annoying than it should be, and I could see the staff worrying more about Maryland the week after in light of what they're bringing back on offense. Maryland - W 48-24, Taulia and Rakim Jarrett will put up number this game. I don't think it matters because they won't have a defense, but this will be a fun first half for the unattached viewer. @ Indiana - W 28-17, I can't in good faith pretend this is a loss, but Penix Jr. could make this really frustrating to watch and Allen has our number on defense. If they're healthy, this could be a nailbiter down to the wire, especially if QB is in flux for OSU at this point. Penn State - L 24-14, I think this is the yearly loss right now, and it's not because Penn State will be that good. In fact, I still think Ohio State will win the division outright, but this strikes me as a game in the time of the year where Franklin's trying to save his job and runs some insane trick play bullshit coupled with a couple of bad picks from a freshman QB. They have some talent at receiver which could be a problem if the secondary proves vulnerable in the prior two weeks and is lacking confidence. @ Nebraska - W 48-10, Never stop obliterating these stupid frauds and their lovely program. Frost's ability to make me hate a Nebraska program that I'm too young to remember being good is really impressive. Purdue - W 56-17, revenge game for the Rondale Moore year. Purdue has one exceptional receiver and a bunch of trash, and they're playing in the Shoe. Brohm's magic is looking pretty weak at this point Michigan State - W 59-10, cupboard is pretty bare among their older guys, and Tucker's not a quick turnaround type of coach. I don't know how they expect to score points, and the bodies aren't there to stop the passing offense if Olave/Wilson get going. @ Michigan - W 42-35, this feels like a year where Harbaugh gets close, not because the program is improving but just because I don't know that it's possible to defend Mesh more poorly than Don Brown did for several years there. It actually wouldn't shock me to see maybe a 1-2 loss Michigan team for this game that has hope yanked away one last time in the Harbaugh era. Also, if they were to somehow win this, they'll sign Jim to a 6-year extension on the spot. Best case: 15-0, natty. If one of the QBs pans out, this team has the horses to make a serious run just off of the offensive depth and depth on the defensive edges. Worst case: 10-3, NY6 bowl loss. No QB pans out/WR injuries lead to a short rotation/lack of size in the middle of the D/CBs don't take a step forward. Realistic case: 13-2 Playoff championship loss. I have a lot of trouble believing that the defense puts it all together with that many new LBs and a secondary that got shelled that hard, but fixing one of those probably gets them as far as the title game with what the offense could put up, given how much Clemson and Bama are also replacing on offense, Oregon's untested on offense, and Oklahoma's propensity to never defend in big games.
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Aug 10, 2021 19:14
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| # ¿ Apr 25, 2024 17:22 |
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