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Troy Queef
Jan 12, 2013




2021 Missouri Tigers

You know what's weirder than playing an all-conference, pandemic-affected season? Playing it with a new coach who had no chance to install his system properly. Eli Drinkwitz took over Mizzou in January after Barry Odom essentially engineered his own demise (no, really: he asked the AD and Board of Curators for a public vote of confidence, they told him "we don't really do that plus with 2019 being affected by the bullshit sanctions we expected it to be a wash", Odom took this as a sign his job was in danger and told his players/staff as much, word got back to Jesse Hall and they decided "ok, you wanna get fired? We'll do it".) Drinkwitz came to Mizzou from Appalachian State, where he had early success, but had previously worked under fellow Arkansas native Gus Malzahn and was also Dave Doeren's OC at NC State. The conference-only schedule was not going to be easy, doubly so with no spring practice and starting with three ranked opponents in Bama, Tennessee, and LSU, and after dropping the first two in Tuscaloosa and Knoxville alarm bells started going off ahead of the home opener with LSU. Drinkwitz made a QB change, putting in RS frosh Connor Bazelak, and the team responded with a wild 45-41 win over the defending champs. A win over Kentucky (a team that had had Odom's number) was followed by a loss at Florida highlighted by a halftime fight between the two teams and no love being lost between Drink and Dan Mullen. The Tigers then went on a 3-game winning streak punctuated by a wild, 51-48 shootout win over Arkansas, before falling against Georgia and at Mississippi State to finish the year 5-5. They were scheduled to play Iowa in the Music City Bowl, but a few players caught the ol' spicy cough and the bowl game was cancelled.

The off-season, though, was where Drink really left his mark: he recruited better than just about any recent Tiger coach, replaced D-coord Ryan Walters (who left to take the same job at Illinois) with NFL vet Steve Wilks, and shored up the notoriously leaky secondary by hiring DB coach Aaron Fletcher from Tulsa. Combine this with some impact transfers, the announcement of a new indoor facility, and Drink having a personality most Tiger coaches before lacked, and hopes are pretty drat high for Mizzou this year.

THE SCHEDULE (with win probability)

Sept 4, v Central Michigan (95%): This is at home and the Chips are far from their Dan LeFevour glory days, but this is still Mizzou with a new defense.

Sept 11, @ Kentucky (50%): This is the first time I can remember that Mizzou's opened their conference schedule this early. Kentucky has been a bogey team for the Tigers in recent years, and Mark Stoops has quietly built something nice in Lex. Not one to be taken lightly.

Sept 18, v Southeast MO State (99%): It's the FCS game and SEMO's not a team with much in the way of success.

Sept 25, @ Boston College (66 and 2/3rds%): I think every Mizzou fan is looking at this game with a sense of imminent dread. Away, against a drat good QB in Jurkovec, early in the season...yep, it's a Trap Game. I think MU's got a bit of a talent advantage but you really never know.

Oct 2, v Tennessee (50%): MU and the Vols have quietly developed a bit of a rivalry, especially after prized QB recruit Sam Horn picked the Tigers over Big Orange. It's a new coach, Tennessee ran all over MU last year, and MU's two biggest D-linemen in Borom and Bolton are in the NFL now, so I'd put this as a toss-up.

Oct 9, v North Texas (75%): Trap potential again as it's a mid-season OOC game against a Group of 5 team, but I have faith.

Oct 18, v Texas A&M (20%): A lot of Mizzou fans think we have a chance against Aggy, but it's a slim one in my mind.

Oct 30, @ Vanderbilt (90%): Vandy's in a bit of a hole right now and Clark Lea's not shown me any signs of getting them out of it.

Nov 8, @ UGA (5%): yeah, everything would have to go right like in '13.

Nov 13, v South Carolina (66 and 2/3rds%): new coach and the cupboard isn't as bare as Vandy, but Beamer's got his work cut out for him

Nov 20, v Florida (30%): yes the Gators have the talent advantage on offense, but Todd Grantham's Emotional Blitzing and the additional factor of "November in Missouri" could swing this one.

Nov 28, @ Arkansas (60%): Pittman's doing well with the Hogs but I give Mizzou the edge.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 10-2, P2 in the SEC East behind UGA, and an Outback/Citrus-tier bowl game

WORST CASE SCENARIO: 6-6 or 5-7 depending on how the BC game turns out, with losses to the Vols, Cats and Arkansas in addition to aTm/UF/UGA. If we go bowling it'd be to Memphis or Birmingham.

LIKELY SCENARIO: either 7-5, 8-4 or 9-3. The swing games in this scenario are @ Kentucky and @ Arkansas. As for bowls, it'll likely be the Music City, Duke's Mayo, or Texas Bowl.

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