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OGS-Remix
Sep 4, 2007

Totally surviving on my own. On LAND!

Leperflesh posted:

I was on a road trip and busy and did not catch any of the draft, how did my 49ers do? I think they didn't even have a first round pick right.

They did not. They drafted some receivers, edge rusher and a 3rd round RB. They also got Mr. Irrelevant who is another QB so I guess there's some competition for the backup spot.

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Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

OGS-Remix posted:

They did not. They drafted some receivers, edge rusher and a 3rd round RB. They also got Mr. Irrelevant who is another QB so I guess there's some competition for the backup spot.

And some DBs and IOLs. They covered all their needs, but how well they did :shrug:

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Peachfart posted:

Kiper thought drafting Wilson in the 3rd was a terrible waste, I wouldn't pay attention to anything he says.

is this true?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIpsbN1kqbQ

Kiper explicitly states that Wilson is the perfect test case for if a QB under 6' can succeed, because he's an otherwise great prospect

e: "If he was 6'2" he'd be a top ten pick"
"I love Russell"
"Played behind the tallest line in college"
"if you were grading his character from 0-10 he'd be a 15"

e2: good to see ole' Coked up Gruden at the draft lol

Ornery and Hornery fucked around with this message at 15:41 on May 3, 2022

Bob Socko
Feb 20, 2001

shocked and appalled about the low-grade beaver tranquilizer

https://twitter.com/DeAndreHopkins/status/1521301792176283649?s=20&t=fLaStqFwRw_HNPa__sJ3Cw

Peachfart
Jan 21, 2017

Ornery and Hornery posted:

is this true?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIpsbN1kqbQ

Kiper explicitly states that Wilson is the perfect test case for if a QB under 6' can succeed, because he's an otherwise great prospect

e: "If he was 6'2" he'd be a top ten pick"
"I love Russell"
"Played behind the tallest line in college"
"if you were grading his character from 0-10 he'd be a 15"

e2: good to see ole' Coked up Gruden at the draft lol

Oh poo poo, I have misremembered this for nearly a decade, lol. Sorry about that, I wonder who it was that was making GBS threads on Wilson that I confused for Kiper.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Peachfart posted:

Oh poo poo, I have misremembered this for nearly a decade, lol. Sorry about that, I wonder who it was that was making GBS threads on Wilson that I confused for Kiper.

I don’t know who you’re thinking of, but if you want to enjoy a lot of really dumb tweets about it, here you go.

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.thecomeback.com/freezingcoldtakes/nfl/russell-wilson-drafted-mel-kiper-others-saw-seneca-wallace-type.html

There’s a whole lot of “but what about Matt Flynn?!!!” in there that is extremely hilarious in retrospect.

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION



Toilet Rascal

YOLOsubmarine posted:

There’s a whole lot of “but what about Matt Flynn?!!!” in there that is extremely hilarious in retrospect.

https://twitter.com/mflynn3/status/1475836675070779397?t=MmQqayVESV2NDg7YoW-QOQ&s=19

DariusLikewise
Oct 4, 2008

You wore that on Halloween?

Play posted:

I have no clue what to think about the Rams draft. I don't know anything about most of those guys. It was a very Rams draft but I will say I don't think they helped themselves all that much. The Rams seem really good at developing o line so I'll trust them on that, the rest of the picks were whatever.

I'll have to do some more research, but they did pass on some guys I wish they hadn't.

Logan Bruss seems like the prototypical McVay guard, able to move around in space and perfect for zone blocking. Needs better footwork and hand placement techniques. The running back they took is a slower, power running kind of guy who apparently is good in pass pro? The corner I've seen compared to Courtland Finnegan, a true nickel guy who is good in run support. The rest is probably depth/development guys, the OLB they took has off the wall athletic testing numbers and was super productive in college but went to an FCS school. It was a very Rams draft which means the 6th round safety they took will start 68 games in his first 4 years and sign a 15 million a year deal in Jacksonville in 2026.



Nit Wit Dog poo poo posted:

Rams UDFA signings:

DB Daniel Isom, Washington State
LB Jake Hummel, Iowa State
LB Braden Thomas, ND State
K Cameron Dicker, Texas (I heard this was more of a punter signing) :shrug:
CB Caesar Williams, Wisconsin
DE Keir Thomas, Florida State
LB Andrzej Hughes-Murray, Oregon State
G Jack Snyder, San Jose State
FB Roger Carter, Georgia State

Dicker the Kicker!

Really surprised they didn't sign another QB, maybe they are planning to give Luis Perez another shot once the USFL is done.

nollij
Aug 30, 2006

Wait, wait, wait...

When did this happen?!?

Tank44 posted:

Was away on vacation the past week but still got to follow the draft in mexico. I am all abroad the Seahawks draft. Wanted OT/DE with the 1st two picks. Was surprised by The RB pick but am OK with it. We need RBs to :run: A local OT in 3rd round that could have gone in the 2nd, :cool: going into day 3, I was hoping for either of the 2 CBs drafted in the 4th and we end up with both.

And yeah, Kiper raves about the value and drafting for need but docks the Seahawks for not drafting a lovely QB. Let's go!

Now am watching the clock to May 12th and the schedule release

I am starting to sour on the RB pick. Read an article yesterday that basically outlined the “optimal” usage of cap space would be to draft another OT and get an RB in FA. The reason being that the 41 pick costs the same regardless if it is RB or OT and FA RB contracts are significantly cheaper. Made good sense and the only reason to not focus on best value per cap space would be if you hated all the FA RBs.

So, this is really, Pete got excited about a guy and the only way to get good value (comparative to drafting a lineman) out of him is is if by year 2 he is a top 5 RB. I guess we will see.

My season ticket upgrade was yesterday and got to move to the front of the section and closer to the middle of the field. My wife hated the choice afterwards because we are going to be too close to the aisles so I guess I hosed up.

nollij fucked around with this message at 14:07 on May 4, 2022

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!
Yeah, a RB at 41 is not optimal, I would have distinctly preferred the center that the Eagles took. They still have a big roster hole at that spot.

That being said, I think the Walker pick is more "luxury" than "waste". If Carson is done, and you're not confident you can find anyone decent on the FA market (and that well ran *dry* last season with all the RB injuries) then you're trusting Penny to stay healthy (lol) or preparing to run out Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas. It's clear that Pete's preferred offense relies on a having a quality running back to function. So, from a roster construction standpoint I understand why they did it, even if I'm having nightmare visions of Kyle Fuller being launched into the first row of seats by Aaron Donald.

EmbryoSteve
Dec 18, 2004

Taste~The~Rainbow

My blood sugar is gon' be like

~^^^^*WHOA*^^^^~

people becoming obsessed with value and efficiency. RB is necessary for the offense to go. FA RBs and who you have on the team are not reliable enough to make the offense go. Pete wants to establish the run and needs a top tier runner. Swinging at that with your 3rd pick is way better than swinging at a QB or whatever is "optimal"

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Swinging in a qb in this class would suck.

Using that second round pick on any other premium position (assuming it’s a prospect actually estimated to be valued as a second rounder) would be better than spending it on a second.

One of the reasons to not take rbs high is because good rbs can be found later. Which is actually super super important and valuable because most 5-7 rounders struggle to even make the roster. But serviceable rbs can come from those rounds. It turns late round picks from almost worthless to actual value if you use them on RBs.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Ornery and Hornery posted:

One of the reasons to not take rbs high is because good rbs can be found later. Which is actually super super important and valuable because most 5-7 rounders struggle to even make the roster. But serviceable rbs can come from those rounds. It turns late round picks from almost worthless to actual value if you use them on RBs.

This doesn’t seem true at all.

You can find “a guy” but you can also find “a guy” to be your third string MLB or swing OL in those rounds as well. You’re rarely finding a difference maker.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

You’ve got to go back to maybe 2017 and Aaron Jones to find a guy taken in those rounds that I’d actually consider good for the position rather than just replacement level from the UFA stockpile.

EmbryoSteve
Dec 18, 2004

Taste~The~Rainbow

My blood sugar is gon' be like

~^^^^*WHOA*^^^^~

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Swinging in a qb in this class would suck.

One of the reasons to not take rbs high is because good rbs can be found later. Which is actually super super important and valuable because most 5-7 rounders struggle to even make the roster. But serviceable rbs can come from those rounds. It turns late round picks from almost worthless to actual value if you use them on RBs.

"serviceable" is not good enough for the Seahawks offense that wants to lead the league in rushing. You gotta have that no bullshit actually good RB. Walker looks like he could be that guy more than penny did when he was drafted. I am excited to see how preseason works out cause penny did look decent and they could be a good 1 - 2 punch on a run first offense.

I need a list of "good" RBs from the 4th round and back to assess that, but the a lot of the best RBs, (Jonathan taylor, Nick Chubb) all came in the 2nd round.

Carson im pretty sure is dead.

Tank44
Jun 13, 2005

We want the ball & We're going to score

nollij posted:

My season ticket upgrade was yesterday and got to move to the front of the section and closer to the middle of the field. My wife hated the choice afterwards because we are going to be too close to the aisles so I guess I hosed up.

I'm in 314 and on the aisle. I love the aisle as you have more space and less annoyed by moving for someone to get by than be that person having to get past everyone . I've had my same tickets for 17 seasons now and have built a family around us.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

2021 RBs, Top 8 by Y/A
Conditions:
  • Started at least 9 games (started over half the season)
  • Rushed at least 135 attempts (picked this number because it's an average of 15 attempts per game over 9 games. Basically trying to remove RBs who had low rushing attempts to avoid outliers)

pre:
Player	       Team	Y/A	Round	Overall	Good QB?  Past Wildcard?
Jon Taylor	IND	5.5	2	41	No	  No
Nick Chubb	CLE	5.5	2	35	No	  No
Miles Sanders	PHI	5.5	2	53	No	  No
Dalvin Cook	MIN	4.7	2	41	Meh	  No
Elijah Mitchell	SFO	4.7	6	194	No	  Yes
James Robinson	JAX	4.7	UDFA  UDFA	No	  No
Aaron Jones	GNB	4.7	5	182	Yes	  Yes
Damien Harris	NWE	4.6	3	87	No	  No
Thoughts from data
1. lol Urban Meyer
2. Teams with good OL have good RB production
3. Teams with good offensive coaching have good RB production
4. I had not paid attention to Damien Harris
5. Trevor Lawrence was 32nd in passing yards per attempt in 2021. Lawrence averaged 6.0 yards per attempt.


Further research
I will do more seasons.
  • For those other seasons, do you want me to keep the threshold at 9 games started or drop it to 8?
  • I did 9 for 2021 because we had the 17 game season.
  • Are there other stats you want me to look up?

Ornery and Hornery fucked around with this message at 03:07 on May 5, 2022

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray
I say take your formula and expand it to the last ten years (big ask I know, five if that's better for you), and instead of a game limit put a minimum of 700 yards on the season

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Shanahan guys are almost cheating. He can get production out of almost anyone but also does the platoon thing to keep guys fresh, so it doesn’t really make sense for the 49ers to spend high on a guy who is only going to get a 3rd of the workload.

That said, they also lose half their backfield every year and spent a 3rd on Ty Davis Price so maybe he’d like to have a bellcow back if he can find one that can stay on the field.

I’d also prefer to see which guys show up year after year. Lots of guys have one good season and then get injured or sign with another team or whatever and are never heard from again. Even if you’re spending a late round pick on a guy you don’t necessarily want to treat them as disposable, you’d like to get more than one decent season out of them.

And there’s other things too, that are hard to quantify. Does their pass blocking and route running ability allow them to stay on the field on 3rd down? Are they going to get run down from behind if they get behind the safeties? Will they shatter into dust if they care the ball more than 200 times?

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.
Oh gosh, what does it mean? :ohdear:

https://twitter.com/stragosaurus/status/1522052858098577408?s=20&t=fPbVVslhVqTwfVTfIaFPJQ

I hope someone types up a 9,000 word article on the possible implications!

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Coldforge posted:

Oh gosh, what does it mean? :ohdear:

https://twitter.com/stragosaurus/status/1522052858098577408?s=20&t=fPbVVslhVqTwfVTfIaFPJQ

I hope someone types up a 9,000 word article on the possible implications!

Seems good, to me, if you’re a 49ers fan who wants him to stay with the team.

Hizawk
Jun 18, 2004

High on the Lions.

Coldforge posted:

Oh gosh, what does it mean? :ohdear:

https://twitter.com/stragosaurus/status/1522052858098577408?s=20&t=fPbVVslhVqTwfVTfIaFPJQ

I hope someone types up a 9,000 word article on the possible implications!

He's in the stalking ex phase of the breakup, Coldforge.

nollij
Aug 30, 2006

Wait, wait, wait...

When did this happen?!?

Ornery and Hornery posted:

pre:
Player	       Team	Y/A	Round	Overall	Good QB?  Past Wildcard?
Jon Taylor	IND	5.5	2	41	No	  No
Nick Chubb	CLE	5.5	2	35	No	  No
Miles Sanders	PHI	5.5	2	53	No	  No
Dalvin Cook	MIN	4.7	2	41	Meh	  No

That is a pretty good list of 2nd rounders. Although, I believe, Nick Chubb was the only one who was really productive in their rookie year (my optimism is not set on the playoffs for 2022 so meh anyway).

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

The quickest substitution in the history of the NBA
Deebo has hit the down bad point in his negotiation strategy

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Footbawwww


How many years does Trent Williams have left in the tank ?

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Ornery and Hornery posted:

Footbawwww


How many years does Trent Williams have left in the tank ?

He was still very good when he played last year, but injuries tend to snowball on a body that size. Niners are certainly considering their post Williams plans

Nit Wit Dog Shit
Sep 28, 2000

Toilet Rascal

DariusLikewise posted:

Really surprised they didn't sign another QB, maybe they are planning to give Luis Perez another shot once the USFL is done.

Here's the rest of their UDFA's:

Jamal Pettigrew, TE, McNeese State
Lance McCutcheon, WR, Montana State
Benton Whitley, OLB, Holy Cross
Dion Novil, DL, North Texas
Elijah Garcia, DL, Rice
TJ Carter, CB, TCU
Duron Lowe, CB, Liberty
Jairon McVea, S, Baylor

Luis Perez is "still on the board," but they do have Bryce Perkins as their third.

Nit Wit Dog Shit
Sep 28, 2000

Toilet Rascal
The Rams have already waived TE Roger Carter, DB T.J. Carter, LB Andrzej Hughes-Murray, DB Dan Isom, WR Lance McCutcheon.

DariusLikewise
Oct 4, 2008

You wore that on Halloween?

Nit Wit Dog poo poo posted:

The Rams have already waived TE Roger Carter, DB T.J. Carter, LB Andrzej Hughes-Murray, DB Dan Isom, WR Lance McCutcheon.

Some of them are back!

https://twitter.com/ramsnfl/status/1527038631772160000?s=21&t=-IwrNxOJXHKsIroD4yasTw

Nit Wit Dog Shit
Sep 28, 2000

Toilet Rascal

Yep. Came here to post the same.

What the hell is the purpose of doing that? Is it a money thing?

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION



Toilet Rascal
https://twitter.com/cmikesspinmove/status/1527359072579702806?t=dj9OMd8MFOx0CDeYYNhPhQ&s=19

Seatte IFA Aaron Badonkadonkor.

Nit Wit Dog Shit
Sep 28, 2000

Toilet Rascal

Well done, sir.

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!
Sounds like Brooks will be taking over for Bobby at the Mike spot

https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/1528849843346542592?t=FdSRITaVLL5XCJZRMJHfkA&s=19

That is interesting, I figured he was being trained as Bobby's replacement but last I heard Barton was the backup Mike

Gonna be a very messy defense early in the season. I'm mostly hoping for some meaningful progress by week 10 or so.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Barton sucks so bad

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Barton sucks so bad

Yeah. I wouldn't be opposed to a KJ reunion, but it seems like the Hawks aren't interested.

Lifespan
Mar 5, 2002
Carson missed that start of OTA (not surprising) and so did Penny (not surprising... but sigh).

Schwack
Jan 31, 2003

Someone needs to stop this! Sherman has lost his mind! Peyton is completely unable to defend himself out there!

shirts and skins posted:

Yeah. I wouldn't be opposed to a KJ reunion, but it seems like the Hawks aren't interested.

Last noise that came out was they wanted him back, but not on the field. I know former players aren't always great coaches, but I hope they can get him in the pipeline. KJ seems like a nice dude and he was an underappreciated piece of those great defenses.

EmbryoSteve
Dec 18, 2004

Taste~The~Rainbow

My blood sugar is gon' be like

~^^^^*WHOA*^^^^~

Lifespan posted:

Carson missed that start of OTA (not surprising) and so did Penny (not surprising... but sigh).

Penny is hurt lmao

Bob Socko
Feb 20, 2001

Anyone know if this John Canzano guy is trustworthy? The name's vaguely familiar, looks like he's a Blazers commentator?

https://twitter.com/CorbinSmithNFL/status/1529168479349157888?s=20&t=74TNystGSi8JuBq2iAOXKg

Lifespan
Mar 5, 2002

Bob Socko posted:

Anyone know if this John Canzano guy is trustworthy? The name's vaguely familiar, looks like he's a Blazers commentator?

https://twitter.com/CorbinSmithNFL/status/1529168479349157888?s=20&t=74TNystGSi8JuBq2iAOXKg

Everyone has been waiting for this since Allen died, so not shocking.

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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

...why would Paul include a provision in his trust that the teams must be sold?

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