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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Electric Wrigglies posted:I completely agree with all of this and is part of the reason of why I suggest that kicking the can down the road with 0-covid is worse than biting the bullet, putting a nominated end date on zero some months in the future and pushing to vaccinate with the best that is available. You don't get vaccinated by then? sorry brah, you are collateral damage. You are suggesting a course of action that would lead to literally millions of deaths and an order of magnitude more newly disabled persons, you realize? 'Kicking the can down the road' is also a pretty short sighted way of viewing things, as delaying an outbreak increases the amount of therapeutic interventions available. If you can delay the death of a 70 year old by a year, and this allows them to receive newly-available paxlovid and survive an otherwise lethal infection, than that delay did a lot more than kick the can down the road. freebooter posted:Under this logic you have to be prepared to implement and enforce NPI mandates for the rest of human history. As far as I know we're not gripped in a cholera outbreak anywhere in the United States, but we're still not making GBS threads directly into our freshwater supplies. NPI mandates have been introduced on a permanent basis throughout history, there is no reason to think implementing respiration/ventilation based NPIs would be impossible.
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Jun 7, 2022 21:47
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hekaton posted:'Kicking the can down the road' is also a pretty short sighted way of viewing things, as delaying an outbreak increases the amount of therapeutic interventions available. If you can delay the death of a 70 year old by a year, and this allows them to receive newly-available paxlovid and survive an otherwise lethal infection, than that delay did a lot more than kick the can down the road. China has better pharmaceutical interventions, that it isn't using. A Chinese company has a license to produce the Pfizer vaccine.
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Jun 8, 2022 00:10
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James Garfield posted:China has better therapeutic interventions, that it isn't using. A Chinese pharmaceutical company has a license to produce the Pfizer vaccine. Which they're not doing, iirc
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Jun 8, 2022 00:11
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In any case, there's nothing in the Zero COVID rulebook that says "you need to use lovely vaccines and have bad uptake among the elderly", that was just a unique thing that China hosed up on. NZ and Australia had perfectly fine vaccine rollouts.
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Jun 8, 2022 00:59
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How are u posted:I'm curious how you think masking could have been "really enforced". Would that be cops patrolling every public and indoor space and physically removing people who refused to mask? Would it be the expectation that private entities like shops and restaurants would have to enforce it themselves? The first seems wholly impractical, as there are not enough cops in the nation to cover every masked space. I guess we could have like hired tens of millions of mask-minders or something whose job was just to spend all day every day enforcing masking? So the fantasy scenarios you’re conjuring up aren’t necessary because we already were at a point where mask compliance was high without any real enforcement, an opportunity which, like I said, the CDC lit fire to. Gio fucked around with this message at 01:03 on Jun 8, 2022 |
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Jun 8, 2022 01:01
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If you want to enforce a mask mandate, you don't need a cop everywhere, you just need enough plainclothes cops that it's always something of a threat anywhere. But, frankly, that ship has sailed. It's gone, it's not coming back. Luckily you can get tons of N95s for really cheap now, and you don't have to care what anyone else does. Seriously, I've been exposed multiple times that I know of, in close proximity, and I've not caught it yet. This poo poo works, and the "your mask protects me; my mask protects you" bullshit came from a time when 95PFE masks were hard to find and we had to put up with cloth rubbish or surgical blues. Between that and the excellent vaccines we have access to, you really can do most things you want to do in relative safety! Unless it's going to a place where you have to take your mask off, like a restaurant or bar. Oh well; then you get to roll the dice.
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Jun 8, 2022 01:32
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Ontario had like zero enforcement and a loophole so large you could drive a truck through it (by the text of the mandate you could claim a generic disability without any requirement to explain it and the business was not allowed to ask for proof), but compliance was really high - I only saw a single person without a mask in a public indoor space throughout the pandemic, up until the removal of mandates was announced. Honestly I think it's less about enforcement and more about consistent messaging - if you have a premier or governor (or whatever) casting doubt on things like masking, or multiple stories of elites not masking, that tends to erode compliance more than the threat of fines I think.
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Jun 8, 2022 02:14
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PT6A posted:If you want to enforce a mask mandate, you don't need a cop everywhere, you just need enough plainclothes cops that it's always something of a threat anywhere. Yeah same. Kids husband and I have all had close encounters but we all kn94 up and so far so good. Had another friends kid pop positive today while lifeguard training. Apparently the whole class is infected now but they’re just calling them ‘sick.’ She contacted the public health district they just sent her a worksheet about when to return to work. She’s not sure if they counted it in their daily numbers or not. She of course told me this in person wearing a cloth mask after we’d made plans for her to drop something off. So yeah, every time I think ‘well surely this will be safe’ and feel silly masking up anyway it seems like I’m proven right not to let my guard down again.
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Jun 8, 2022 02:26
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enki42 posted:Ontario had like zero enforcement and a loophole so large you could drive a truck through it (by the text of the mandate you could claim a generic disability without any requirement to explain it and the business was not allowed to ask for proof), but compliance was really high - I only saw a single person without a mask in a public indoor space throughout the pandemic, up until the removal of mandates was announced. Honestly I think it's less about enforcement and more about consistent messaging - if you have a premier or governor (or whatever) casting doubt on things like masking, or multiple stories of elites not masking, that tends to erode compliance more than the threat of fines I think. I think that's a reasonable point. On the other hand, I think the "it's to protect other people" messaging was also in need of a shift as the pandemic developed. I still wear a mask in public, N95, and I shave every morning even though I loving hate it, and I ain't doing that poo poo to protect anyone else. gently caress everyone else; I'm doing that to protect me. If it protects someone else as well, all the better, but I'm doing that poo poo because I really don't want to be even minorly sick, and I don't want to roll the dice with any complications. Some people ask, when we're in close proximity "would you like me to wear a mask?" Honestly, I don't care at this point, not even a little bit. Do whatever the hell you want, I simply could not care less. The message that "oh, you're fine, don't worry about it, but accept this imposition to protect the vulnerable" was a complete failure of messaging. If I could quit smoking cigarettes to protect my own health -- and to be honest, that's the only reason I did it, because apart from the intense deadliness, smoking is superb -- then I can wear a mask very easily.
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Jun 8, 2022 02:36
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hekaton posted:As far as I know we're not gripped in a cholera outbreak anywhere in the United States, but we're still not making GBS threads directly into our freshwater supplies. NPI mandates have been introduced on a permanent basis throughout history, there is no reason to think implementing respiration/ventilation based NPIs would be impossible. Cholera is not a massively contagious airborne disease and permanent NPIs would require a lot more than rerouting some plumbing. Maybe we'll get improved ventilation standards going forward (good for everyone working in an office or studying in a school built after 2022!) but good luck getting people to wear face masks in perpetuity. Best case scenario I see (and I wouldn't actually be surprised if this is still the case in Melbourne at least in 10 years) is that a lot of places settle around a pre-pandemic East Asia level of public masking, at least on trains etc. enki42 posted:Honestly I think it's less about enforcement and more about consistent messaging - if you have a premier or governor (or whatever) casting doubt on things like masking, or multiple stories of elites not masking, that tends to erode compliance more than the threat of fines I think. This is true - anything involving individual behaviour is always going to rely hugely on self-enforcement - but I also think fatigue was a big factor. Though that's hard to separate that from the fact that by the time we hit the 18-month mark pretty much everyone was vaccinated, too.
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Jun 8, 2022 09:09
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hekaton posted:You are suggesting a course of action that would lead to literally millions of deaths and an order of magnitude more newly disabled persons, you realize? 'Kicking the can down the road' is also a pretty short sighted way of viewing things, as delaying an outbreak increases the amount of therapeutic interventions available. If you can delay the death of a 70 year old by a year, and this allows them to receive newly-available paxlovid and survive an otherwise lethal infection, than that delay did a lot more than kick the can down the road. see, here you go with the frankly absurd hyperbole I was referring to in a previous post. China has already significantly vaccinated its population. If it was more serious it could go through and booster everyone with Pfizer which might take six months or so as well as ramping up Paxlovid production (although Paxlovid does not change the point I am making either way). Since vaccination of the vast majority off the population is the assumption, it is most assuredly not "millions' of more deaths versus continually locking down indefinitely, The whole world is around a million deaths per billion people since the start and that includes the majority that died without a vaccine, the majority of which would have survived if the vaccine was available to them sooner. China is a bit over a billion so the theoretical maximum would be under a million surely (in the short term, over 100 years, it could be millions; idk, but deaths due to the significantly constrained economy over the same timeframe would be far worse). On the magnitude of more disabled people versus deaths, you will need to cite sources as anecdotally, I have heard of people I know being really messed up and taking a while to recover. I have quite a number of people I know who perished. I have not heard of a person now on disability due to a covid infection or profoundly changed life experience long term (I have a knee reco from sport injury and it will always be less strong but I don't consider myself disabled). Maybe the multiples of profoundly long term ill per death are concentrated in different circles than I run in but I doubt it and frankly, I again believe it is hyperbole. This disease kills you or it doesn't as a general rule. It is not like polio (for eg).
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Jun 8, 2022 09:42
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I was walking through the executive offices and passed one of my coworkers having what appeared to be an intense cellphone conversation. Then I hear someone say "Wait, you have COVID? You should go home!" I'm the only one here who wears a mask, but my maskless coworkers rapidly converged, displaying varying degrees of freaking out. And it was just yesterday that we all received an email reminding us that we are not allowed to work from home, and that any WFH lasting more than a day would need to be personally approved by the CEO. I'm never going to be able to take this drat mask off.
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Jun 8, 2022 17:55
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Electric Wrigglies posted:but deaths due to the significantly constrained economy over the same timeframe would be far worse). Source?
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Jun 8, 2022 18:35
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droll posted:Source? Doing the lockdowns intermittingly for a 100 years is going to constrain the Chinese economy. There is no mistaking that. The people arguing for China style covid zero are not arguing that it wont severely impact the economy, they avoid that by implying that the economy is only to put dollars into capitalists pockets. Again and again they ignore that the biggest part of the economy is spent providing bread, shelter and medicine for the world. A reduced economy is reduced bread, shelter and medicine and for the more marginal, the incremental difference is huge. China has a big chunk living in this range. Remember when India done the big lockdown which included kicking the migrant workers out into the street, hundreds of km from home, essentially no public transport to get home and no food or water to make the trip walking? Helped prevent covid in rich people? Maybe? Help reduce overall suffering with only the economy as the loser? Not so much. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 8, 2022 19:38
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Ok so you have nothing to back up the claim that what china has been doing for 2 years will kill more Chinese people than letting it rip. Thanks for clarifying.
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Jun 8, 2022 19:42
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droll posted:Ok so you have nothing to back up the claim that what china has been doing for 2 years will kill more Chinese people than letting it rip. Thanks for clarifying. again with the frankly absurd hyperbole that we keep coming back to.
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Jun 8, 2022 19:46
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Electric Wrigglies posted:North Korea has a significantly constrained economy, but no covid. It's life expectancy, live births per thousand, children surviving to five years old, etc all the stats are firmly in favour of having a less constrained economy like South Korea. If South Korea got Covid in the 80's, I bet you a penny to a pound that it's well being stats would still outstrip North Korea's covid free over the same time period. NK has covid they're just not discussing it. The lockdowns in were localized and most of the nation didn't even change they way they were living much. Source: All my company's production is in mainland china and our offices in HK
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Jun 8, 2022 20:38
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Electric Wrigglies posted:North Korea has a significantly constrained economy, but no covid. It's life expectancy, live births per thousand, children surviving to five years old, etc all the stats are firmly in favour of having a less constrained economy like South Korea. If South Korea got Covid in the 80's, I bet you a penny to a pound that it's well being stats would still outstrip North Korea's covid free over the same time period. The big missing piece here is whether China's restrictions will be anywhere near comparable to the economic constraints North Korea is under. That certainly hasn't been the case for the past 2 years, China isn't some completely isolated nation with extremely limited flows of goods or anything. You could make the argument that there's economic disruption from COVID even with an absolute lack of restrictions. Assuming waves continue and are quite frequent, we're probably looking at periods every 6-12 months where economies without restrictions are affected by mass absences from sick workers. That certainly seemed to be the case with the Omicron wave. Your argument is basically "North Korea restricts their economy and their economy is bad, so any restrictions whatsoever on an economy are bad". enki42 fucked around with this message at 22:31 on Jun 8, 2022 |
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Jun 8, 2022 22:28
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enki42 posted:The big missing piece here is whether China's restrictions will be anywhere near comparable to the economic constraints North Korea is under. That certainly hasn't been the case for the past 2 years, China isn't some completely isolated nation with extremely limited flows of goods or anything. I have not argued against "any restrictions whatsoever" that is absurd hyperbole. I am coming in after we read a post talking about the extant to which China is going to try and stay covid-0. My argument is that cheerleaders for that approach are under-estimating the population health impacts of that course of action. Yes, I didn't go into how relative North Korea's economic contraction due to international sanctions compares to indefinite and sporadic lockdowns in China would be. It is a PhD probably and not my intent to say which is worse (although I would guess international sanction on food importing N. Korea). Also unsaid is that most countries and populations could wear one or two locked in your house for months event and bounce back after but it is likely that each lockdown will cause even more harm each time, not less. Melbourne was mostly on board with the first few but even the biggest proponents were getting pretty fatigued within a year or two of them. Agreed covid is causing harm, whether directly because it is in the country long after the worst or from avoiding it trying to keep it away. That is unavoidable. Measles caused disruption to North Americans long after the original burn through of the population. The moment covid got to a developing country with a significant population, some level of harm for the entire world was locked in. It become at that point a multi-disciplinary effort manage as best an administration can with as much science possible and ideally not going in with the thought that it can be fixed if we just smash the nail with the hammer hard enough or if you put your head in the sand, it will go away. That is part of the fascination because it is a very complex problem at global scale as well as being impactful upon all of us at a personal level. Final point, North Korea is used as an illustrative example of how the economy being held back over decades will result in poor demographic outcomes (ie, the economy is important) and we get "but they have covid now!". I mean c'mon.
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Jun 8, 2022 23:30
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Honestly using North Korea as an analogous situation for restrictions on the economy is so goddamn ridiculous that I'd think you were trolling. Also, you know what also causes economic damage? An uncontrolled outbreak of Rona! Like for real there are plenty of things to criticize about china's response to covid but getting a case of the vapors over the damage to the economy reads completely delusional. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 9, 2022 00:09
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enki42 posted:You could make the argument that there's economic disruption from COVID even with an absolute lack of restrictions. Assuming waves continue and are quite frequent, we're probably looking at periods every 6-12 months where economies without restrictions are affected by mass absences from sick workers. That certainly seemed to be the case with the Omicron wave. Was this a big deal in most of the world, in that December/January period? It definitely was in Australia - like, walking down the street half the restaurants and cafes were shut with signs saying they just didn't have enough staff because people were either sick or close-contact isolating - but I assumed that was unrepresentative because a) we'd never really had widespread COVID before and so very little existing exposure immunity, and b) we still had tight regulations around e.g. isolating if you were a contact, mandatory reporting of rapid tests etc. I assumed that in America at least, by that point half the population didn't even bother to test and would still show up to work even if they were coughing a fit.
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Jun 9, 2022 08:05
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100% in Ontario it was an issue. Schools had to close not due to outbreaks (that was no longer tracked or reported after Christmas) but because they didn't have enough teachers who weren't sick to staff the schools. Many hospitals issued code oranges due to not having enough staff. We did the 5 day isolation thing around the same time, which probably fueled things and made it worse vs. better (getting an employee back a few days early isn't all that helpful when they get 5 other people sick). That's not the US though - we almost for sure had way lower immunity through prior infection and probably a healthier attitude towards testing and isolating? Another issue at the time is that we were completely cut off from both PCR tests and rapid tests, so basically any sort of symptoms required isolating.
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Jun 9, 2022 08:14
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enki42 posted:Another issue at the time is that we were completely cut off from both PCR tests and rapid tests, so basically any sort of symptoms required isolating. Huh - I thought this was just Australia. I had friends who were exposed on New Year's, finally got through to a PCR test on their third day of trying (turned away due to overload on previous days) on maybe January 4, and received their negative results on... January 28.
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Jun 9, 2022 08:21
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enki42 posted:
Hospitals fortunately didn't follow the 5 days. It remained normally ten days unless you were in an area of critical staffing shortage in which case you could return earlier if you had a negative PCR on day 7. On a related note it sounds like a lot of them are going to maintain mask mandates even if the province is dropping the requirement for them to do so, which is a bit encouraging. The rapid test situation is a bit funny in how much it's reversed now though. At least in Toronto availability of boxes of free tests is now so widespread everyone I know has piles of them. I could probably do rapids twice a day every day if I wanted to vs. back in January/February when they were essentially impossible to find.
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Jun 9, 2022 13:47
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enki42 posted:100% in Ontario it was an issue. Schools had to close not due to outbreaks (that was no longer tracked or reported after Christmas) but because they didn't have enough teachers who weren't sick to staff the schools. Many hospitals issued code oranges due to not having enough staff. We still are cut off from PCR tests, and runs on rapid tests were common earlier this year when cases were (presumably) higher. But Doug Ford basically pretended COVID was over and got four more years, so I'd estimate a low chance of the government spending more money on testing anytime soon.
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Jun 9, 2022 15:49
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We've gone from 1 person with covid to 3. The third person is walking around the office maskless talking to people about who he thinks he caught it from.
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Jun 9, 2022 16:33
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Dick Trauma posted:The third person is walking around the office maskless talking to people about who he thinks he caught it from. lol lmao
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Jun 9, 2022 17:15
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It's the covid version of crop-dusting.
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Jun 9, 2022 17:20
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Dick Trauma posted:We've gone from 1 person with covid to 3. The third person is walking around the office maskless talking to people about who he thinks he caught it from. I’m beginning to think this whole COVID thing isn’t a problem because it’s some sort of intractable superbug, but because people are really, really loving stupid.
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Jun 10, 2022 15:44
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Loving the NYT headlines today:quote:The U.S. will lift a virus testing mandate for international air travelers on Sunday. quote:The major tourist draws of San Juan, and Miami-Dade and Honolulu counties, have become virus hot spots. Granted, domestic travel is probably more than enough to explain surges in tourist hot spots, but it still amused me about as much as these quotes did: quote:Dr. Mary Jo Trepka, who heads the epidemiology department at Florida International University, pointed to several factors that could be driving the surge, including flocks of spring-break tourists, recent big events like the Miami Grand Prix race, and widening public apathy about the pandemic.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:14
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From Canada, at least, the requirement to get a pre-departure test is 100% theatre. I can drive to Buffalo or Detroit and get on a flight without having to take any sort of test, and always could.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:29
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The preflight testing requirement felt a bit like pandemic theater back in May when I needed to go through it. It doesn't stop new variants from coming in, and given how you can test negative and still have the virus, it has a lot of holes if the goal is to stop the spread of the virus. Especially with how wide spread it is. And given how infectious the current variants are, stopping one case from getting on board feels like catching a drop of water from running faucet. You got that drop, but there's still a bunch of water that's getting through. The cases it does catch are good things, but then again, I was getting tested in some location where I'm not really sure how good a job they do. Like, you just need a document to get on board, but it didn't really ever feel official to be since I was only dealing with private companies. I would have preferred a mask mandate on the plane, since that would do a better job, but then you run into the whole eating and drinking thing.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:35
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With most countries basically giving up on stopping transmission domestically, I don’t see how you can reasonably justify border restrictions. I think we should have border restrictions as well as measures to reduce spread domestically, but as long as we’ve given up, we might as well travel freely.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:51
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tagesschau posted:From Canada, at least, the requirement to get a pre-departure test is 100% theatre. I can drive to Buffalo or Detroit and get on a flight without having to take any sort of test, and always could. Yeah and since it can just be a rapid administered at a pharmacy, and rapids aren't nearly as good at picking up asymptomatic Omicron as other variants, it's not going to catch nearly as much as it might have a year ago. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 20:12
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Yeah and since it can just be a rapid administered at a pharmacy, and rapids aren't nearly as good at picking up asymptomatic Omicron as other variants, it's not going to catch nearly as much as it might have a year ago. There's also nothing about a positive result that stops you from rebooking yourself on a flight out of a U.S. airport and driving across the border. It was silly to keep that requirement in place for flights from Canada in light of that fact.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:02
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tagesschau posted:From Canada, at least, the requirement to get a pre-departure test is 100% theatre. I can drive to Buffalo or Detroit and get on a flight without having to take any sort of test, and always could. That requires an automobile. Not everyone has one. In fact, your countryfolk, even the 83% who do have a car, tend not to drive all that much: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/turo-study-shows-majority-of-canadians-own-cars-but-hardly-ever-drive-them-827345320.html There are additional costs in time, money/fuel etc. that would discourage a nonzero amount of people from doing as you say. So I really don’t think it’s possible for it to be 100% theater on account of what you have said, and I hope they keep the requirements they do have in Canada (if any remain).
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Jun 10, 2022 21:47
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mawarannahr posted:That requires an automobile. Not everyone has one. In fact, your countryfolk, even the 83% who do have a car, tend not to drive all that much: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/turo-study-shows-majority-of-canadians-own-cars-but-hardly-ever-drive-them-827345320.html Those numbers seem absurdly high and I'm not sure I'd particularly trust a sponsored news ad by Turo, the company that is trying to get people to invest in their "AirBnB but for cars" app, as a good source.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:53
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Those numbers seem absurdly high and I'm not sure I'd particularly trust a sponsored news ad by Turo, the company that is trying to get people to invest in their "AirBnB but for cars" app, as a good source. Interesting. Can you direct me to a better source on Canadian car ownership statistics? Some countries have national statistics institutes/websites (eg UK, Turkey). In any case I am confident that not all Canadians own vehicles and fewer operate them regularly than who own them, and those Canadians would be significantly disincentivized from driving down to Buffalo.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:55
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mawarannahr posted:Interesting. Can you direct me to a better source on Canadian car ownership statistics? Some countries have national statistics institutes/websites (eg UK, Turkey). In any case I am confident that not all Canadians own vehicles and fewer operate them regularly than who own them, and those Canadians would be significantly disincentivized from driving down to Buffalo. Anything from StatsCan would be a better source but they may not have the exact information easily available. But this would be a start: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/topics-start/automotive Some of the latest data is from 2016 (the 2021 census data isn't fully released yet, I think transportation stuff is due to be disseminated this fall) but I'd be shocked if it changed massively. Cars are just as much a way of life here outside of major cities as they are in the US and crossing the border by car is pretty drat normalized given over 75% of Canadians live within 150km of the US border. gently caress, you used to be able to do it without a passport until like, 2009. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 22:09
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Those numbers seem absurdly high and I'm not sure I'd particularly trust a sponsored news ad by Turo, the company that is trying to get people to invest in their "AirBnB but for cars" app, as a good source. It says that Canadians average more than an hour of driving per day, which actually seems pretty reasonable and I suspect Americans aren't too far off. Who in their right mind would want to be driving more than an hour a day on average (outside of specific driving-related jobs)? They've just chosen the ridiculous framing of "your cars are sitting idle 95% of the time!" and suggesting that not literally driving all day is a reason someone might want to get rid of their car and move to their peer-to-peer car-sharing model instead. Of course since most people need cars regularly and around the same time of day their short-term rental model will do jack poo poo. E: It's much more of a case of "how to lie by intentionally misframing statistics" than the statistics themselves being incorrect. Stickman fucked around with this message at 23:11 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 22:23
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