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Bar Ran Dun posted:they had too many ships and freight rates v were artificially low for a long time. it was systematic problem that had been causing line failures and mergers. then pandemic. they cartelled up and reduced capacity to not die. but now ships take a long time to build and it’ll be years before it gets back to that state. Bar Ran Dun posted:lmao got an advanced degree for a dying system Bar Ran Dun posted:well yeah I think the trend going forward is less global. international supply chains are probably going to get less predominate and JIT now has a bloody nose and black eye in just about everybody’s minds. Bar Ran Dun posted:this it’s: container flow. the rate of flow is the ships, it’s the chassis, it’s the rail capacity, it’s the labor. basically all the parts have restricted capacity and the containers are going through the cycle very slowly. Bar Ran Dun posted:On the warehouses... Bar Ran Dun posted:the big thing is nobody can get cans. Bar Ran Dun posted:freezer cars and reefer containers are running out of fuel on the rail because they don’t have people to fill the tanks.
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Oct 31, 2021 03:09
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I started to write a post a couple days ago to try to say what I thought, I’m just gonna post even though it’s not done: Bar Ran Dun posted:no but as ships got larger US marine terminals didn’t really keep up. before the pandemic they were always just barely hanging on on the West Coast with regards to capacity and container flow rates. Bar Ran Dun posted:weirdly the only place that really gets it right is GA. GPA has inland rail yards one can in gate into the marine terminal from. So drop the container in Macon, GPA port rails it to Garden City Terminal. super simple . Bar Ran Dun posted:To be fair the how was worked out here. the current scale would not have been apparent in the 70’s or 80’s. the construction of these cranes and terminals was a new thing, and sometimes it didn’t go well. I’ve heard stories about the first generation of cranes falling down during construction in several ports. Anyway to get to the point: We need a National Port Authority patterned on Georgia Ports Authority. It could break the advantage the lines have over individual ports. It could have the resources to expand where smaller entities might not. It could do innovating things like inland rail/marine ports allowing in-gating / out gating far inland.
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Oct 31, 2021 03:13
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KillHour posted:Removing safety regulations "temporarily" has never in the history of man either backfired or resulted in them not going back in after. Nope, never. Two high stacking isn’t a safety regulation. It’s a I don’t wanna look at containers regulation . Now the truckers hours getting relaxed that’s a safety regulation that shouldn’t be hosed with.
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Oct 31, 2021 03:17
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Wrote this years ago. Pandemic did what I was worried the trade war would do. So I have a steam engine vehicle and I want it to go faster so I can win the race. I have the bright idea to start making the various bits of the steam engine lighter by using thinner metal. I start winning. Now everyone starts thinning down. And the rate of catastrophic accidents goes up predictably.
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Oct 31, 2021 03:23
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rxcowboy posted:4: Labor shortage right now is insane. We can't get workers, and the pay is decent. We're a second chance employee for many felons, so someone with a record can make 60k a year in Baltimore, have a 401k, great insurance and be in a union. And we just can't get workers. It's never been this bad. I feel like this is already a separate thread somewhere else, but a labor shortage I think this is entirely due to closed borders and lack of immigration. So the solution is, you need to raise wages, lower working hours and advertise this in the recruiting ad. Ultimately the borders are going to open up next year, and this problem will be solved as if by an "invisible hand".
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Oct 31, 2021 03:29
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Except there isn’t a labor shortage. There are workers that won’t take the lovely god awful jobs that don’t pay anything anymore.
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Oct 31, 2021 03:42
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Gonna be a real bummer when the solution to the worker shortage is lower the wages of the jobs they are working instead so they have to come back.
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Oct 31, 2021 03:50
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Comstar posted:I feel like this is already a separate thread somewhere else, but a labor shortage I think this is entirely due to closed borders and lack of immigration. I am very much in favor of raising wages and lowering hours but against opening the border. Not due to racism but to be blunt cheap immigrant labor is propping up industries that function by taking advantage of workers willing to work for less and this is quietly accepted by greedy americans who want as much poo poo as possible for as cheap as possible and don't give a drat where something is made or who makes it as long as they can afford more poo poo. We have plenty of unemployed people, under employed people, and people with non violent felonies due to the war on drugs screwing them out of a job. Raise wages, accept that the system needs to change, and begin the process of retooling it rather than relying on importing workers who will tolerate the abuse. For instance: The bakery I work at was 80% undocumented workers until around 2008-2010 when immigration came down hard. The workers were paid six dollars an hour less than other bakeries. And they tolerated it because it was "decent" money when you factor in over time and knew that with no papers they couldn't complain. And people who want to pay the least possible for a loaf of white bread would scream bloody murder if the price of bread went up to represent higher labor.
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Oct 31, 2021 04:18
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I've had a real issue lately finding coke zero
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Oct 31, 2021 05:06
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Any supply issues in my local area have been pretty random and don't seem to last more than a couple weeks, except for Costco's lack of paper towels and toilet paper. They've given up having a regular shipment schedule and when they do get a shipment in, they're all sold within two hours, and that's with a one per customer limit.
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Oct 31, 2021 05:20
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Most of the real problems are being hidden. While lotta poo poo is being transported by air. Other things you won’t even notice. Hell some effects might even look like “sales”. Product that normally wouldn’t have a buyer is getting bought and sold in stores.
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Oct 31, 2021 05:28
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Most of the real problems are being hidden. While lotta poo poo is being transported by air. Other things you wont even notice. Hell some effects might even look like sales. Product that normally wouldnt have a buyer is getting bought and sold in stores. How long do you think it'll take for the problem to become impossible to hide?
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Oct 31, 2021 05:29
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To who? If you work in manufacturing or anything industrial lol. Between 10 to 6 months ago. Consumers at grocery indefinitely with cracks and absences/ substitutions/ price increases. Edit: poorer folks and people intentionally testing grocery costs already have noticed the price increases. Consumers for specific affected durable goods. Regionally for specific items 10 to 6 months ago. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Oct 31, 2021 |
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Oct 31, 2021 05:41
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Thanks for your insight. Also, thank you a ton for including all your effort posts in here. It really helped me understand the scope of this problem better. It's crazy to think that for the first time in my life as a westerner I might experience some kind of scarcity. I'm only 31 and my entire life has been the 90s and increasingly lovely from there, but this really drives home that climate change comes for us all and it looks like this: empty shelves and shortages of poo poo you never thought would be unavailable, like.. Peas.
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Oct 31, 2021 08:11
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I've posted this in other threads but it's worth a re-post here: I'm coming at this from the supply chain dept of a hospital I work at in the Houston, TX area -- we are seeing problems arise both supply and manufacturing issues. One such example would be test tubes. You know how when you get your blood drawn, it's most likely taken in multiple colored tubes? The most frequently used one, the tube used to test every incoming patient that passes through the hospital, that is used every day (and multiple times per day if needed per patient), is experiencing a national back-order by its biggest manufacturer because the lack of plastics to manufacture it. It's not just my hospital, or hospitals in TX, it's everywhere. It's a range of items that we are experiencing re-occurring delays/backorders; kleenex tissue paper to angiography packs, underpads used to absorb fluids under a patient to types of disposables trachs, abdominal binders to blood transfusion tubing. We also know that our distributor's inventory is floating on the cost somewhere, just sitting, but can do gently caress all about it. So yeah, as part of all this, keep in mind that hospitals are scrambling to keep up/cover their inventories during this.
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Oct 31, 2021 12:23
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Related to the above post: Sharps containers for a while were backordered like crazy in certain sizes. I'm not sure if it was true in the US as well but I assume so. I mean for like 6 months it wasn't very easy to get certain common sizes. The FDA or CDC actually put out guidelines for conservation/repurposing of the containers. This was because of the ongoing resin issue and a fire in a factory I believe (also the ongoing container issue). Something like that wouldn't of course matter to the retail market. Paint is still another issue or at least spray-paint is. I believe its a mix of sourcing the aluminum cans and one of the additives for the paint. There are issues with certain tools and ladders. Consolidation in that industry and something with aluminum has now pushed what was a 3-4 week wait into "TBD" territory on certain ladders. Again you might not notice in retail because there is *something* available but I'm sure there are less options than before. I guess a slightly scarier example is municipal water parts have gone up in price like crazy and also doubled lead times from 3-4 weeks to 4-8 so it's slowing down repair projects if not sufficiently planned. Usually they are made in north America but not all components are so again you are stuck waiting on something being offloaded from a late container. There is an issue with paper (not paper tolls) too, something with possibly a component for coloured paper. Computer toner is another one. Some are just taking much much longer than usual and again I have to assume its some component issue. A schoolboard here is having to really ration their supply here : https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/no-more-photocopies-no-more-ink-thames-valley-schools-run-out-of-toner-1.6218872 .
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Oct 31, 2021 14:06
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Comstar posted:I feel like this is already a separate thread somewhere else, but a labor shortage I think this is entirely due to closed borders and lack of immigration. its not really a labor "shortage" so much as it there is turbulence in the labor market, which means less desirable jobs have a harder time matching to available labor. for whatever reason right now, people are placing more value on their labor and demanding better working conditions, which is great overall but makes for short term economic disruption as the negotiations shake out
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Oct 31, 2021 18:21
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:its not really a labor "shortage" so much as it there is turbulence in the labor market, which means less desirable jobs have a harder time matching to available labor. for whatever reason right now, people are placing more value on their labor and demanding better working conditions, which is great overall but makes for short term economic disruption as the negotiations shake out I feel like that is part of it, but also 1 in 500 Americans died this last year, and lots more lost childcare and can’t work, there is probably actually a shortage.
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Oct 31, 2021 22:26
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I feel like that is part of it, but also 1 in 500 Americans died this last year, and lots more lost childcare and can’t work, there is probably actually a shortage. The childcare loss is huge. Women, especially single minority women with dependents were by far the hardest hit by the pandemic. They have not by and large been able to return even if they wanted to, or found other work that accommodates their needs. If the build back better bill passes and includes childcare (and the big unanswered question: if they can fill those newly funded positions with willing workers) it'll be a big hit on unemployment numbers in that demographic.
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Nov 1, 2021 20:37
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...j50g?li=BBnbfcL Whelp, here comes the abyss. If the price of fertilizer goes up, poo poo is about to get very hairy.
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Nov 6, 2021 13:56
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StratGoatCom posted:https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...j50g?li=BBnbfcL Highest price since 2012, not “highest price humanity has faced” Or anything
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Nov 6, 2021 14:35
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Found a faster way to get cargo shipped to Long Beach and out, Matson Fast Vessel seems to be unaffected by the delays since they have their own dedicated terminal. Then again it’s 75k for a full container plus a partial. So not for everyone.
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Nov 6, 2021 15:05
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Found a faster way to get cargo shipped to Long Beach and out, Matson Fast Vessel seems to be unaffected by the delays since they have their own dedicated terminal. Then again it’s 75k for a full container plus a partial. So not for everyone. Yeah they have three vessels on the China west Coast service. At that price one could fly many things. Matson does have its own terminals (and they own SSA). lol they’re charging so much.
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Nov 6, 2021 17:16
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Yeah they have three vessels on the China west Coast service. Yeah unfortunately what we're shipping doesn't fit in standard cargo planes. Only one we found was through Chicago and would have been over 200k lol. Maybe one of those big Antonovs.
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Nov 6, 2021 18:36
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Oracle posted:The childcare loss is huge. Women, especially single minority women with dependents were by far the hardest hit by the pandemic. They have not by and large been able to return even if they wanted to, or found other work that accommodates their needs. If the build back better bill passes and includes childcare (and the big unanswered question: if they can fill those newly funded positions with willing workers) it'll be a big hit on unemployment numbers in that demographic. That's a biggie. It's not just supply chains that have been feeling unprecedented pressure. Also a lot of people out of work are probably realising that they were barely breaking even at their jobs anyway. Gig economy stuff is getting big just because it's apparently still better pay and better conditions, because so much work has become just that bad. Turns out, worker rights and minimum wage laws were protecting employers from themselves. They're currently doing the equivalent of holding their breath until the price of oxygen goes down.
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Nov 10, 2021 08:17
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Ghost Leviathan posted:, because so much work has become just that bad. I think a lot of people did something else and found oh this isn’t awful and now I’m making more money. Now employers that had employees doing awful jobs can’t get those people back and everybody new doesn’t want to put up with the old horseshit. In logistics the places that laid people off, they’re hosed. Honestly they deserve it too. CFS that kept people around are hanging on, barely, basically they still have what they had, just nobody new.
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Nov 10, 2021 18:11
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I think a lot of people did something else and found oh this isn’t awful and now I’m making more money. Yeah I'm low-key hoping this whole mess reinvigorates labor in the US but we as a country have legislated against labor so much that I'm not confident. It turns out that businesses will shoot themselves in the foot rather than pay a decent wage or improve conditions. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
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Nov 11, 2021 00:25
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Jaxyon posted:It turns out that businesses will shoot themselves in the foot rather than pay a decent wage or improve conditions. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Paradoxish posts about small businesses being terrible in this way in CSPAM, but I think there are entire necessary critical segments particularly in logistics that just see excessive hours and low pay as “normal” and it’s going to take a long time before they move on from bitiching about “millennials who only want to work 40 hours” to offering positions that don’t suck and pay for how truly hard the work is. I mean that could take years before they give on it.
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Nov 11, 2021 00:59
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Paradoxish posts about small businesses being terrible in this way in CSPAM, but I think there are entire necessary critical segments particularly in logistics that just see excessive hours and low pay as “normal” and it’s going to take a long time before they move on from bitiching about “millennials who only want to work 40 hours” to offering positions that don’t suck and pay for how truly hard the work is. Yeah it's a similar toxic culture you see in other industries that are just starting to come to terms with it, like the recent threatened IATSE strike. Pretty much everyone I know in the industry saw the grueling hours and conditions as "paying your dues" and almost everyone I ever talk to still in trucking is a libertarian rear end in a top hat that sees themselves as the backbone of the American industry and if you don't like it you're just a liberal snowflake who can't hack it. In other news, my friend posted about how her entire supply chain team has been hospitalized for work-related stress conditions in the last few months.
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Nov 11, 2021 01:05
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Jaxyon posted:Yeah I'm low-key hoping this whole mess reinvigorates labor in the US but we as a country have legislated against labor so much that I'm not confident. All the legislation in the world can't make people work jobs they don't want to work. I think this is a real turning point.
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Nov 11, 2021 01:43
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Bottom Liner posted:All the legislation in the world can't make people work jobs they don't want to work. I think this is a real turning point. I hope so too but people have been and still do work jobs they don't want to work in.
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Nov 11, 2021 01:48
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Jaxyon posted:In other news, my friend posted about how her entire supply chain team has been hospitalized for work-related stress conditions in the last few months. The suddenly more work staffing problem is a thing that got modeled by the big consultancies in tiffs between shipyards and the navy about major change orders and the workload effects. Basically if there is suddenly more work it creates a series of feed back loops than burn people out faster than they can be replaced (if it lasts longer than a couple weeks) and especially if they take training to replace. Like so many other things the loving problems hitting us now have solved solutions that just get ignored by managers.
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Nov 11, 2021 01:53
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Jaxyon posted:I hope so too but people have been and still do work jobs they don't want to work in. Sure, but this is the first time in generations people are walking away from entire industries because the pay is not worth it. We're skipping waiting on politicians to increase minimum wage and just using our side of supply and demand to make it happen.
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Nov 11, 2021 01:57
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Bar Ran Dun posted:The suddenly more work staffing problem is a thing that got modeled by the big consultancies in tiffs between shipyards and the navy about major change orders and the workload effects. Yeah my company just told us how awesome revenues are but I know for a fact that they're holding on any headcount increase til next year. We got a pizza party though.
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Nov 11, 2021 02:00
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Bar Ran Dun posted:The suddenly more work staffing problem is a thing that got modeled by the big consultancies in tiffs between shipyards and the navy about major change orders and the workload effects. Endgame neoliberalism is indistinguishable from crackheads stripping copper out of the walls to sell for more crack, but with money addicts and infrastructure. Now we're at the point where they're wondering why the lights don't work. Thing is, I think they're genuinely incapable of actually changing anything to meet reasonable standards, rather than whining and crying that people aren't begging for the opportunity to work themselves to death anymore. Bottom Liner posted:All the legislation in the world can't make people work jobs they don't want to work. I think this is a real turning point. Unfortunately, American history in particular says they certainly can, and you have a massive carceral state to make sure if it, a chief architect of which is currently VP.
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Nov 11, 2021 03:30
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I have had a rough year at work due to supply chains.
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Nov 11, 2021 03:32
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Bottom Liner posted:All the legislation in the world can't make people work jobs they don't want to work. I think this is a real turning point. Coincidentally, I just learned about Tang Ping today. Perhaps this sentiment is turning into something more world-wide.
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Nov 11, 2021 15:37
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Bottom Liner posted:All the legislation in the world can't make people work jobs they don't want to work. I think this is a real turning point. I think its going to come down to how much capital are companies willing to sink into refusing to raise wages/improve conditions/hire more people/offer more benefits vs. how long workers can afford to not work. It'll be a waiting game of 'how long can you hold out on unemployment' vs 'how long can you, Big Corp, survive off all those cash reserves you want to spend on stock buybacks/investor payouts before its all gone and you've got nothing left AND no workforce.' Then it becomes 'how long can those good benefits last.' People so far aren't biting on the '3000 hiring bonus' as much as corps thought they would and are holding out for pay/benefit increases which are more long term and harder to get rid of (and also more expensive than just a one time 3k pp hit).
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Nov 11, 2021 16:11
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The most recent US unemployment rate was 4.6 percent. Lowest it's been in ages. Lower than pre-pandemic in a lot of places. It seems like it's not just a matter of not paying enough (even though people are not paid enough). It seems like there may be actually more jobs than there are workers (because people died, but more overtly because a large rotating number of people at any one time are out sick), which would mean higher pay could only move the shortage around instead of ending it.
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Nov 11, 2021 16:38
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:The most recent US unemployment rate was 4.6 percent. Lowest it's been in ages. Lower than pre-pandemic in a lot of places. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm There's room to bring people back into the workforce.
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Nov 11, 2021 16:45
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