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Solkanar512 posted:So I keep hearing about problems with lack of space and whatnot at ports in California, why aren't ports in Oregon and Washington taking on extra load? I know they're smaller, and not directly where producers want them, but they still have rail connections and a few extra days should be better than waiting at sea. What am I missing here, just a lack of reporting on those ports already at capacity? Other limitations? they are also backed up every port which handles TEU aka containers, aka "random stuff", is experiencing backups for a variety of reasons, primary among them being a shortage of truckers to haul containers away from the ports "just raise wages" is the obvious answer, but the trucker shortage predates the pandemic and supply chain problems because this kind of short haul trucking is a miserable job regardless long beach/los angeles gets the most press because it is the largest container port (not largest port, that is south louisiana by a large margin) and directly adjacent to a major metro area, full of journalists, who can see all the ships abnormally sitting around. but all of the major container ports - south california, seatac, NY/NJ, savannah, are all backed up for similar reasons. you even see the same problems internationally at other container ports. the overall reduction in trade during covid 2020 lead to both a relative and absolute increase in trade in 2021, and while in economic terms everything will shake out and stabilize into an equilibrium eventually, what this means while that new status quo is reached is a disruption and empty shelves other contributors to the crisis is backups at warehouses and distribution centers. any sort of chaos at any link in the chain introduces more chaos at other links, and increased delays, and increased costs. in the before times we had it good as everything became streamlined and cheap. now it's not that way, and it will be that way again, but not for a while. now is a good time to practice lessening one's dependence on material goods
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Oct 28, 2021 20:41
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in my neck of the woods its mostly just random things that are hard to get - gatorade for some reason, wet cat food, gourmet crackers are the things we've consumed that are having chronic shortages. this is as like a problem sourcing the packaging as anything else. at least some of the problem with empty shelves is lack of shelf stockers, because that is a poo poo job. places with rock bottom pay like wal-mart are suffering more heavily from this (always have been) where at my local publix, which pays good wages and benefits, there is high turnover but positions remain filled with new facesMr Luxury Yacht posted:That was less the supply chain having major issues and more half the country deciding to get into baking all at once because everyone was stuck inside with nothing to do from what I recall. right, loving everyone started baking in spring 2020 and wiped out the flour supply
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Oct 29, 2021 19:22
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look, we serve our cats hors d'oeuvres, whats the loving problem
Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Oct 30, 2021 |
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Oct 30, 2021 15:40
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Comstar posted:I feel like this is already a separate thread somewhere else, but a labor shortage I think this is entirely due to closed borders and lack of immigration. its not really a labor "shortage" so much as it there is turbulence in the labor market, which means less desirable jobs have a harder time matching to available labor. for whatever reason right now, people are placing more value on their labor and demanding better working conditions, which is great overall but makes for short term economic disruption as the negotiations shake out
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Oct 31, 2021 18:21
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its really not a crisis for a lot of people. its annoying to have higher prices but a general increase in grocery costs is not the same as a pending famine. high inflation sucks but not everything that sucks is a sign of the imminent collapse of civilization imo, if we made it through a generational-scale pandemic then i think we can bear a 10% increase in the cost of milk and bacon
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Nov 12, 2021 19:03
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 i've been eating less meat and walking more places so people complaining about higher gas and steak prices just seems to me like the same stuff the RWM has been whining about for fifteen years i guesseconomic turbulence is a pain in the rear end but i dunno what getting obsessive is going to accomplish, the only thing i can control is what i consume (and how much of it)
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Nov 12, 2021 19:14
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-Blackadder- posted:There was an article in the USCE thread about the lack of truckers driving up their wages. Are the problems with being a Trucker being fixed to the point where it's something low skill people should look into? I feel like this job market has a lot of opportunities right now, I'm just trying to help him find something solid beyond fast food. trucking just sucks. its a lot of pressure and responsibility for long hours and low wages, plus most of the time its a sedentary job so bad for your health, except for the few times you'll be called on for backbreaking cargo shifting. and that's just for a daily short haul job, where you get to go home every day or you're only rarely gone overnight. long haul is even worse (but has potentially livable pay) i also wouldn't call trucking low skill, there's a fair amount to it - there is a reason you have to get a whole other drivers license to drive a truck
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Nov 17, 2021 20:47
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Fill Baptismal posted:It is easier to train someone off the street to do the job of supermarket cashier at a level acceptable to management than it is do so for a software engineer or something. To see this as somehow a moral judgement or disrespect to the supermarket cashier requires you to assume that someone’s labor market competitiveness is connected in some way to their worth. People aren’t their jobs, and it’s fine to categorize some jobs as low skill. i think the problem is just that your categorization is classist and faulty. training doesn't really enter into it, nor does the ability to do the job intoxicated. there's definitely a level of skill involved in grocery cashiering, or cleaning toilets, or watching young children, or other jobs which are bedrock essential to society but aren't valued by management because they don't generate as much profit per worker. absolutely everyone needs a clean place to poo poo but there's no venture capital out there investing in janitorial startups, how to clean a toilet can't be innovated on, so it gets pushed down to the "any schmuck off the street can do this" tier of labor i think the flaw here is that you're imposing a bit of projection by saying someone else is assuming labor market competitiveness is connected to worth, when this is what you're doing by separating jobs into high/low skill based on the profits they generate, not the amount of knowledge they require to do well. in particular, you're discounting the impact of emotional labor, or a grocery cashier remaining calm and adhering to policy while getting screamed at over expired coupons. or, it could be you're thinking of the consequences if a job is done badly - nobody's going to be injured if a grocery cashier fucks up, but if a trucker does...
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Nov 17, 2021 20:57
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Let me put it this way: they are doing this though. wolff is speaking nonsense because nonsense is more ideologically coherent. like you can look up employment statistics in the united states, it is all freely available and one does not have to editorialize or speculate about it, the evil capitalists are hiring in huge numbers https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm GABA ghoul posted:This is some embarrassingly dumb poo poo for someone working in academia. I'm beginning to suspect that economics is just a huge joke someone can always make money telling ideologues what they want to hear. nobody is immune to propaganda Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Nov 17, 2021 |
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Nov 17, 2021 23:44
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Cpt_Obvious posted:One of us is reading these numbers incorrectly. the point you're overlooking is that the capitalists, in their bumbling zeal to not hire anyone to drive prices higher, hosed up and still managed to hire millions of people per month. so, maybe the "they aren't hiring anyone to gently caress the economy over" theory is just flat out wrong (this seems likely imo) personally i think that the pandemic introduced a lot of weird rear end economic turbulence and this takes months-years to shake out and return to the status quo. in the meantime you can make all kinds of predictions about who or what is to blame, according to the needs of your audience and how many clicks you can collect for which theory
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Nov 18, 2021 00:01
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i can't explain it any more clearly, the capitalists are hiring millions of people per month, which wolff doesn't mention in his video because it blows a hole in his theory. i can only assume at this point that we are witnessing you in real time choosing between politics and an uncomfortable reality, and rejecting that reality as incorrect
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Nov 18, 2021 00:06
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Cpt_Obvious posted:You can't look at hiring numbers while ignoring separation numbers i can, in fact, do th at if the claim is that employers are refusing to hire in collusion to gently caress with the economy, then high numbers of new hires per month disproves that theory. it is very simple if you want to dig in your heels and come up with buts, alsos, whatabouts, therefores etc. then come up with a new theory Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Nov 18, 2021 |
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Nov 18, 2021 00:22
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Cpt_Obvious posted:No it doesn't, it just proves they are hemorrhaging workers and are only hiring enough to replace the ones they are currently losing. see, you came up with a different theory! "the capitalists aren't hiring" proved to be wrong, so you shifted it to "the capitalists are only hiring at a median level to achieve the same effect while covering their tracks" which means you don't have to change your beliefs in light of new evidence! this theory is also pretty wrong but i dont think you can be convinced so i wont try. as others have mentioned, the supply problems are too widespread and international to be to blamed on the american employers - unless of course we expand this to a global scope, and they're ALL in on it...
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Nov 18, 2021 00:30
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Yeah, but not like, because it would be fun, people retired, or became stay at home parents, or just died or became sick (temporarily or permanently). I am sure that if you payed more you could draw some amount back, and 4% unemployment isn't zero percent, so it could go lower but it really might be that there really is somewhat of a shortage of humans to work right now. we're "missing" about 2% of the overall working population (proportionally, closer to 4% of the labor force) who isn't going back to work for some reason. this is already adjusted for deaths, so my guess is folks who can't get reliable childcare. there's a whole sector of childcare which relies on exploiting women for rock bottom wages that is in flux right now, as those workers themselves pursue better opportunities. part of this is structural for lack of government intervention, as there's just no way to make the math work on early childcare and staffing requirements without either paying workers poo poo wages or raising prices so high that the equally poo poo-waged customers in need of childcare can't afford the service. there's money to address this in the build back better bill, hopefully it wont stall out or get stripped out https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm
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Nov 18, 2021 00:48
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I feel like where I work at least the staffing shortage isn't really people quitting to hold out for better wages. It's the staff uncertainty of a disease. Multiple people are out a day for weeks at a time either because they are ill or because they could be ill and need to stay out, or a child of their's is ill or the school their child is at is closed and need tending for weeks. any problem can be solved if you throw enough money at it. we could have a full faculty of teachers tomorrow if we paid them all $200k a year. thus, the capitalists who run the school system are simply failing to do this obvious fix because they are concerned about their profits
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Nov 18, 2021 00:59
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to go into a bit, drayage or port trucking is one of the trucking jobs most people don't know about the popular idea of a trucker is long haul, that is driving a load very long distance, from one end of america to another or across half the countries in europe. this is actually one of the smaller segments of the market, as anything which needs to go long distance could also viably go by aircraft (faster) or train (cheaper). but if you need your load to go thousands of distance at a medium but not too expensive speed, long haul trucking is there the complete opposite of this is drayage aka port aka container trucking. it is very boring and repetitive, because you basically drive into a port (or rail) terminal over and over to pick up containers and take them somewhere nearby. sometimes you'll go from the terminal to a warehouse across the state, sometimes you'll just go on a loop between the terminal and the container yard down the street eight times a day. all you're doing is just taking full containers out and bringing empties back, more or less from a labor standpoint long haul can be well paid, but you basically give up on family life because your job is 100% travel. on the other hand, port trucking lets you go home every day and you can make decent money as long as nothing weird is happening, but its hard work and long hours for the money trucking as an industry is massively decentralized. this is part of why "just raise wages and hire more truckers" doesn't work, there are tons of people who get a CDL and a loan for a shiny new kenworth and set themselves up in business as an owner/operator (o/o for short). the largest trucking company in america is JB Hunt and they've got something ridiculously small like 4% of the entire trucking market, as the biggest player in the game. even companies like UPS or FedEx barely crack 1% of the market. nearly all long haul or port drivers out there are independent contractors, driving for a company is what you do when you want to make steady if smaller paychecks and get benefits. the tradeoff for an o/o is that you keep all the profits you make, so long as you can find them. its kind of like driving for uber, but instead of a single tech company you've got a series of freight brokers offering short term jobs. uber tried branching out into freight and it is a thing that exists, but instead of usurping the market of taxi companies it just became yet another freight broker of which there are many (it may be better to think of uber as introducing the concept of drayage trucking to passenger travel). anyway, as long as nothing weird is happening and you can keep your earnings above the costs of running your truck, then you'll make decent money in terms of weird stuff happening, there's a lot that can happen. here's a video from 2014, when the trucker shortage was already well underway, describing the steps involved in a single visit to a typical port https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9IJN1yIIJ4 the really critical thing here as the article pointed out is dropping off empty containers. those containers have to go somewhere, and at most ports the empty box stack is already overflowing. big disruptions in the flow of trade, like a global pandemic, create weird imbalances in the system! im not sure what the expedient solution here is, the obvious one that comes to mind is finding an alternate place to set up a container yard but that is a process which would take a year at least even if you completely bullied your way through all of the local land use and environmental laws prohibiting the overnight establishment of container yards. the warehouses and company distribution centers at the other end of this supply chain link have neither the equipment nor space nor inclination to store empty containers either - turns out there's not really a good short term solution for what to do if the economy generates a huge pile of empty 20x10x10 steel boxes that weigh a couple tons even when empty so, all these additional delays eat into the available time and money of drayage o/o and it sucks. but these problems have existed for years, its a tough industry, the problems are just amplified right now because just in time supply chains kinda fall apart when all the national economies of the world start dry heaving at the same time Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Nov 30, 2021 |
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Nov 30, 2021 05:40
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:CBP really does have a dedicated radiation scanner in case someone sneaks a ton of plutonium into a container, or did i mishear things? its the safety check for the "what if someone puts a nuke in a container?" scenario which, while unlikely, isn't implausible. if you wanted to deliver a nuclear bomb into america and detonate it at a critical point, "in a TEU container" and "near a port" are both pretty good options
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Nov 30, 2021 16:26
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Hellblazer187 posted:This seems almost like a manufactured scarcity, no? The shipping companies are incentivized to be as slow as possible unloading poo poo, because as the supply of space on ocean liners goes down, they can charge more money. not exactly - the shipping companies want to unload and process their ships and keep everything moving, because thats what gets them paid. playing delay games to nickel and dime their customers over late fees is a bit like saying that UPS and FedEx collectively instructs their drivers to just drive in circles with full vans without delivering anything to justify increases in shipping rates. sure, you'd get more money per box in the short term, but in the medium term you're going to move less boxes as people find alternatives there are some lawsuits alleging collusion to manipulate the market so we'll have to see how that pans out, but it depends on how much agency you invest in the shipping lines as being able to influence the market vs what they're trying to do to cope with larger pressures within the market. for example, china's quarantine regs alone are enough to gently caress with shipping worldwide. like, if you've got a boat on the way to guangzhou and get news that the chinese government now requires three extra weeks of quarantine for sailors... welp, thats three extra weeks minimum added on to this boat's trip i'm not saying they're blameless here in terms of price gouging or making lovely decisions, but it depends on if you view them as cackling overlords squatting on piles of money or just as confused and desperately scrambling as anyone else has been in the last 24 months. i dont really think the large companies are capable of the level of collusion necessary to manipulate the market, versus the price shocks being the result of a global pandemic kicking the poo poo out of established supply chains e: its also worth pointing out the supply of space on ocean liners is very inflexible, it takes a while to build new container ships. you don't actively have to do much to make the supply of space go 'down' in this sense, as any kind of delay will reduce the supply of container ships/time, thus hiking prices, without you having to lift a jewel-laden finger Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Nov 30, 2021 |
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Nov 30, 2021 17:20
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Maersk and MSC colluded for a long time to contribute to keeping rates low to capture more market share eventually MSC pulled back on that. But it all contributed to Hanjin failing and the formation of THEA. thats the thing, collusion within an alliance to lower prices is an order of magnitude less complicated than collusion between alliances to raise prices, knowing that whoever breaks first and betrays the trust of the other players gets to reap a windfall. its easier to assume they're all working together if your default perspective is "they're all the same, fat capitalist bastards" instead of large companies which have been knifing each other for years to compete on lower prices suddenly forming a thieves guild for reasons? i've got a buddy who works at hapag-lloyd and some of the stories he tells about organizational chaos are hair raising
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Nov 30, 2021 17:39
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Hellblazer187 posted:The reason I bring up the "manufactured scarcity" is because that's in part what Richard Wolff was talking about in the video that got posted earlier in the thread. That comment might not have applied to consumer goods directly, but seems like at least in part it applies to the shipping industry itself. that video is dubiously argued at best and makes more sense as a perspective viewed through an ideological lens rather than a factual lens. he's asserting manufactured scarcity exists and works backwards from there to demonstrate it, which is an argument that has more merit if you don't need much persuading to believe in manufactured scarcity in the first place e: rewatching the video, in the first half he asserts manufactured scarcity exists without proof except capitalists are bad. this is a dumb argument. his analysis is more correct and marxist in the second half, when he says covid hosed up international supply lines (true) which exist in the first place because of moving manufacturing overseas to save money (true) but this has nothing to do with manufactured scarcity, just corporate cost cutting making supply chains exposed to disruption. so wolff isn't even blaming manufactured scarcity for high shipping prices, he's blaming manufacturers for cutting labor costs at the expense of long, vulnerable supply chains, which is a complaint people have been making for decades Hellblazer187 posted:There's no collusion required if the incentives in place at the moment make going slow more profitable for everyone involved. Demand is so high and supply is so low, that lowering your prices as an individual shipping company isn't necessarily going to bring in a windfall. is it more likely that the incentives in place naturally cause competitors to collude together, or is it more likely that the incentives in place simply cause higher shipping prices without any collusion at all? keep in mind that there are three alliances of multiple shipping companies each as well as a bunch of unaligned, smaller players who would be giddy to expand their market share at the expense of colluding big players with supply constrained the only way for anyone to expand their market share right now is by lowering prices, which makes it pretty tough to believe in collusion to raise prices Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Nov 30, 2021 |
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Nov 30, 2021 18:32
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anyway, we're all missing the real story here - joe biden is manufacturing scarcity to Destroy Christmas https://twitter.com/owillis/status/1465732050758078464
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Nov 30, 2021 18:43
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its not clear that extra physical capacity would solve anything. you want to project the need for capital improvements against expected long term growth. panicking and throwing billions on billions of dollars (of government money, at private firms) to try to bypass turmoil and operational inefficiency by brute forcing hard capacity just means that in ten years you're going to have a lot of shuttered and empty port facilities
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Dec 1, 2021 22:09
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Jaxyon posted:I'm not an expert so I may be wrong, but the reason why video cards are hard to get at MSRP are more than just price increases from logistics(ie container shipping, trucking), which is what's driving a lot of other inflation. there's a chip shortage directly and also all computer hardware has been expensive for the last few years because of loving crypto miners. i bought a video card in 2018 because my old one wore out. i got a new but lower end model because i didn't want to pay more than $150 for it. the exact same card retails for over $500 today Bar Ran Dun posted:Right we need to be smart about it. We should be doing things like inland marine in gating at rail terminals like GPA does in Macon for Garden City. this would run into constitutional problems, short of an amendment clarifying and invalidating the 10th you'd be better off replicating the NY/NJ Port Authority by encouraging states to form infrastructure compacts e: by constitutional issues, i mean the reason the united states army is responsible for floodwater and large civil engineering projects which impact multiple states is because that was the easiest way to force that capability into the federal government umbrella with the least amount of state complaining about sovereignty or "our taxes" being spent out of state. this is also why poo poo like dredging the mississippi or building the interstate is done for "national security". the constitutional framers deliberately kneecapped what the federal government is and is not allowed to do and pretty shortly after american independence, the federal government has been having to figure out loopholes to grant itself extremely vital powers it isn't allowed to have Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Dec 1, 2021 |
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Dec 1, 2021 22:23
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the commerce clause is one of those loopholes which can be used, but also limits what the feds can do - basically it says the fed can regulate commerce between the nation and foreign entities, as well as among the states. whether "regulate" is the same as "fund improvements to support" is something that has been a political flashpoint defining political polarization in the united states, it is one of the root disagreements between federalists and anti-federalists and people have been arguing about it literally since the constitution has existed. like the canal boom of the 1820s lead to a lot of canal projects begging for federal funding since they impacted rivers on the borders between states, or traveled between states, and the early congress arguing "uhh, we're going to fund this because it is well within our authority to administer the, uh... national... defense?" is why the us army today is in charge of floodwater management and building river locks and poo poo. meanwhile, one of the reasons the erie canal is famous is because it was built quickly, partially because they didn't need to ask the federal government for money (but they did step in and build/control the locks on both ends of the canal as those were technically intrastate commerce, which are administered by... the corps of engineers!) commerce clause definitely isn't a slam dunk to create a "department of oceanic ports and railroads" or whatever this agency might be called, i can guarantee this would be framed as a tyrannical government overreach and the gateway to communism by the republican party. much, much better to approach this fight from the state level up Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 00:53 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 00:49
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the state of georgia also bootstrapped itself into being a major center of film and tv production through sustained government subsidy and tax credits but you're never going to see republicans at the federal level advocate for a national office of hollywood pampering. what works for a state becomes a political liability at the national level, especially given how republicans are just obstructionist jackoffs at the federal level if anything, the GPA would be pointed to as an example of what states can do all on their own without federal oversight (please, please dont ask where the money comes from)
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Dec 2, 2021 01:36
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PT6A posted:I think rental car companies are just weird and skittish. statistically people under 25 tend to get in car accidents at a much higher rate. this isn't to say that any individual 18 or 21 year old is an unsafe driver, but in aggregate as a group, they are. this has implications for individual car insurance premiums, as well as the bulk insurance that car rental companies buy we absolutely should not be letting your average 21 year old fly planes commercially, but presumably any individual 21 year old could be vetted to the point of being a safe enough pilot
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Jan 23, 2022 02:45
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Cpt_Obvious posted:The obvious solution is robust public transport but lol. it would be easier and more effective to forcibly relocate everyone from suburban and rural areas
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Jan 23, 2022 20:31
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KillHour posted:If I ship you a pair of shoes via train and the train those shoes ended up on derailed and exploded or whatever, worst case I'm out a pair of shoes. If I cared enough, I could probably sue the operator of the train for losing my shoes and it would be a problem for their insurance policy to handle. If I ship those shoes on a boat and there happens to be a million dollar car on the same boat, why do I personally have to reimburse the owner of that car? Nothing else works that way. thats not how general average works. everyone with cargo doesn't pay an equal share of the damage, they pay a proportional share based on the value of their cargo the Ever Given, which got stuck in the Suez Canal, is an example of declaration of general average. for getting the ship stuck, the ship owners were hit with massive fines and fees by the government of Egypt. these fines and fees were spread out over everyone with goods aboard the ship. this is the old principle - that we can basically hold your cargo if necessary to help pay to repair the ship if something stupid happens. lets say for sake of argument that the GA assessment was 50%. you've got $100k worth of erasers on the ship, so if you want them back you need to pay us $50k. or, just walk away from the erasers and write it all off. someone shipping $50m of luxury condoms is going to have to give up $25m to get them back, and so on. you're not reimbursing the condom importer, the shipping line is basically holding your goods until you pay an additional assessment. this isn't too far off from how other common property assessments work, except you don't own any of the ship, you're just renting space and due to the risks and costs involved, the shipping line wants to be able to twist your arm to help cover extraordinary and unforeseen expenses. the alternative is that we price these expenses into the insurance and you simply pay higher rates, all of the time Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 23:08 on Jan 26, 2022 |
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Jan 26, 2022 23:05
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it makes sense to me, i get that you are personally mad and feeling ripped off but oceanic voyages have unique sets of risks as well as unique economies of scale. better to have lower rates most of the time until a kraken devours the crew or whatever and then we can figure out how much this is going to set everyone back e: i forgot to mention that if you do have insurance on your cargo, it will ususally cover GA costs unless you cheaped out. having to cough up money to get your stuff back is only if you're uninsured Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Jan 26, 2022 |
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Jan 26, 2022 23:13
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the thing about having all kinds of brilliant innovations about how the world should work is that they're extremely cheap and common and safely ignored, in favor of the time-tested thing which definitely does workZero VGS posted:So like, has an average joe ever bought a $200 part like this and been bankrupted by the SS Ferrari hitting an iceberg? if your entire business was riding on safe delivery of that cargo and you couldn't afford insurance, sure
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Jan 26, 2022 23:34
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Zero VGS posted:Oh I misunderstood, I thought general average meant I had to split the damages with everyone else like I was on the hook for their loss. So I can't actually lose more than the value of the shipment? right. let's say Poseidon Himself tridents the ship and it needs to put into port for immediate repairs, that cost millions of dollars. the owners of the ship, seeking compensation, can invoke GA to force everyone with cargo on the ship or their insurance carrier to give up a percentage of the value of their cargo if they want to get their cargo back. you've always got the option of just giving up your cargo entirely, as i can't imagine in what scenario you'd be forced to pay more than the value of the cargo - presumably at that point the ship has been entirely destroyed and the cargo is lost anyway
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Jan 26, 2022 23:43
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