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Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord
I feel like supermarkets have some amount of bare shelves, I went into a store a few days ago and the whole coffee row was just bare, but that stuff seems to come and go. It does feel like a bunch of things are just like, perma out of stock when I'm ordering for work.

Like, ordering laptop cases from apple, or some sorts of network switches just get you "ship date, 2022" and no further information. Lots of stuff we ordered in early summer is just coming now or has not come. Sort of technology stuff from the chip shortage, but laptop cases don't have chips in them, some stuff just can't be sourced for some reason right now.

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Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

its not really a labor "shortage" so much as it there is turbulence in the labor market, which means less desirable jobs have a harder time matching to available labor. for whatever reason right now, people are placing more value on their labor and demanding better working conditions, which is great overall but makes for short term economic disruption as the negotiations shake out

I feel like that is part of it, but also 1 in 500 Americans died this last year, and lots more lost childcare and can’t work, there is probably actually a shortage.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

StratGoatCom posted:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...j50g?li=BBnbfcL

Whelp, here comes the abyss. If the price of fertilizer goes up, poo poo is about to get very hairy.

Highest price since 2012, not “highest price humanity has faced” Or anything

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord
The most recent US unemployment rate was 4.6 percent. Lowest it's been in ages. Lower than pre-pandemic in a lot of places.

It seems like it's not just a matter of not paying enough (even though people are not paid enough). It seems like there may be actually more jobs than there are workers (because people died, but more overtly because a large rotating number of people at any one time are out sick), which would mean higher pay could only move the shortage around instead of ending it.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Cpt_Obvious posted:

I'm legit surprised this thread has so little activity. Maybe people are a bit in denial, maybe they think things will just magically Nintendo dissolve into everything going back to normal. Maybe the price hikes haven't really affected the forum's bottom line yet. Hard to tell.

I guess Christmas will either kill the thread forever or explode it to the top of the forum depending on what ends up happening.

What would happen?

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Solkanar512 posted:

This is a great point, and Food Network/HGTV are absolute blights on our civilization.

People need to eat their assigned foods only

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Jaxyon posted:

A lot of people don't connect systems with their personal life.

Supply chain drama is incredibly esoteric to people just wanting to live their lives and seeing higher prices at the pump or their food prices go up.

Like I've had so many conversations with people who's job was directly hosed by Trump tariffs who were big supporters of Trump tariffs.

I think most people's personal life has NOT been strongly effected. I think the spotty and random nature of shortages makes this more annoying than scary so far. If specific things seem to start being totally inaccessible I think people will start worrying more. Now most stuff is out then comes back then something else is out, and prices are rising but still to prices that are prices people have seen before on things.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord
I’ve asked before: are there tons of people to hire? Unemployment is no longer very high.

it really may be an exceptional amount of workers died, many people at any given time are sick (or potentially sick and “quarantined” for two weeks) or needing to do childcare because of other sick people. There might not just be a capitalism answer where we just pay more and the dead people will come back to work (people might stop being absent or leave children unattended if you pay them though, but that seems not desirable)

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Buncha people dropped out of the workforce, not included in unemployment percentage.

Yeah, but not like, because it would be fun, people retired, or became stay at home parents, or just died or became sick (temporarily or permanently). I am sure that if you payed more you could draw some amount back, and 4% unemployment isn't zero percent, so it could go lower but it really might be that there really is somewhat of a shortage of humans to work right now.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord
I feel like where I work at least the staffing shortage isn't really people quitting to hold out for better wages. It's the staff uncertainty of a disease. Multiple people are out a day for weeks at a time either because they are ill or because they could be ill and need to stay out, or a child of their's is ill or the school their child is at is closed and need tending for weeks.

Like it feels like an actual issue that isn't going to have a pure labor capitalism answer where you just pay someone more or subsidize childcare or something. Like that is all good stuff that should happen, but it feels like the staffing issue is more "14 people are out today, and so 5 other people retired because this sucks now and is dangerous" where if you hired 100% more people you'd still have issues they all still got sick, or their kids are sick, or whatever.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Freakazoid_ posted:

I went out of my way to get a local sourced turkey and it still only cost me $1.99lb.

I've eaten a lot of wild turkey and I'll say that there is a lot of meat I'll go to bat for the "real" version (store-bought chicken tastes like wet cardboard) but turkey is the one where the weird factory mutants are just superior in every way.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

IT BURNS posted:

Have a friend in Vancouver I need to check on, apparently the city is cut off from the rest of Canada, gently caress.

Vancouver is canada's largest port. So it's vancouver that is cut off but for stuff it's more the rest of canada saying "how the heck am I supposed to get stuff now?"

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord
She moved to america at 8, she’s a citizen.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord
Here is a weird one I ran into today at work:

When a library gets a new book the standard to enter it is just scan the ISBN number and there is various databases that will spit out all the information to add it to the local system.

More and more those are falling apart, to the point relatively mainstream books just won't be in for a year or more. And the apparent issue is that all those systems were set up in the 80s, are all run by like a dude and that dude is 400 years old and now is gone/retired/dead, and with a thousands of books coming out every day even if they get someone new it's still backlogged intractably.

Like library of congress just doesn't have a complete record of "Pokémon: Scyther, Heart of a Champion" because whatever ancient grandpa that has been maintaining the Z39.50 server that every library in america relies on is apparently not updating anything in a timely manner anymore.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Cpt_Obvious posted:

That makes sense. I remember during the Bush years when gas spiked there were all sorts of stories about "super savers" who would stretch their gas mileage as far as possible. That really only really applies to "consumers" not the economy at large tho. For example, if growing corn requires gasoline-powered tractors then the farming conglomerate who buys that gasoline doesn't really have an option to just buy less gas without significant investment in fuel efficiency etc.


It seems like in the extreme the cost of tractor heavy foods would go up and tractor light foods would be cheaper.

Like I’m not sure how it exactly maps to tractor use specifically but it’s a commonly heard fact a pound of beef creates 10x the greenhouse gas as a pound of chicken. People are flexible about that sort of thing to some degree.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Bar Ran Dun posted:

The tractor’s use of fuel is a fart in the wind of energy usage of commodity grain production.

In a broader sense different foods require different amounts of energy and within limits people are somewhat flexible on food choices. If everything went up a million percent people would starve to death but if some stuff went up a lot and some things went up modestly people do change consumption

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Bar Ran Dun posted:

You (OOCC) make me very tired.

Crops that don’t use a tractor are usually harvested by hand. They will not be cheaper to harvest than crops that can be mechanically harvested ever.

They all get transported internationally. Most get fertilized. These are much bigger energy inputs than the gas used by a harvester.

Yeah man, I don’t think anyone is literally talking about tractors.

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Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Like I get the thought that was trying to come out, but pick better examples for your thought experiments.

Sorry the literal police can’t understand metonymy.

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