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Android Apocalypse
Apr 28, 2009

The future is
AUTOMATED
and you are
OBSOLETE



Illegal Hen

News:


Views:
https://twitter.com/highlghtheaven/status/1465509145843585026?s=20

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Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


I think the Football Team can win like 5 of their last 6 games lol

LiquidFriend
Apr 5, 2005



I remember when Eric Berry had a pick 2 to seal the win at Atlanta.

It's too bad cancer wrecked him.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005





I guess I’ll just go close my thread again :smith:

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


Can someone explain to me why the gently caress the WFT didn’t kick a field goal to go up 11 points with a minute left?

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION





Toilet Rascal

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Can someone explain to me why the gently caress the WFT didn’t kick a field goal to go up 11 points with a minute left?

Kicker got hurt trying to tackle the guy on the kick 2

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


seiferguy posted:

Kicker got hurt trying to tackle the guy on the kick 2

Lol. They couldn’t get the punter to kick a 25 yarder?

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."



Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Lol. They couldn’t get the punter to kick a 25 yarder?

When you get a kick blocked and returned for 2 and your kicker pulls his hamstring trying to chase the guy down I imagine you feel a little gunshy about kicking again.

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION





Toilet Rascal

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Lol. They couldn’t get the punter to kick a 25 yarder?

I remember one time Seattle's kicker got hurt so they had the punter (normally the holder) go out to line up, and the backup holder botched the snap, went through his hands and the other team picked it up for an easy TD.

I'm assuming that's a situation they were avoiding.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003



Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it.

Kalli posted:

Yeah. And I mean it sounds stupid, but 20 years ago it was real common for talking heads to say you need to take deep shots for stupid as gently caress reasons instead of converting 3rd down into 1st so you could have 3 more chances to score points.

But the thing is that a 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2 is way more valuable than a three yard run. I assume those two plays aren't treated equally in DVOA, but how does the algorithm weigh the former versus the latter?

It's possible (maybe even likely) that DVOA is biased in favor of offenses that convert tons of first downs above all else, but that's almost immaterial at this point anyway. It's loaded with so many opaque calculations that purport to account for game scripts, opponent adjustments, and sometimes even preseason projections, that trying to even meaningfully critique the esoteric percentages it spits out is a fool's errand anyway. It's just an unscientific process where some nerd moved enough toggles on his spreadsheet to finally output the power rankings he wanted.

And in spite of all of the highfalutin equations, the explanation for the DVOA rankings always come down to the same concepts that the layperson has talked about for years: this team won by a lot, this team only beat bad teams, and this team had some bad luck with turnovers.

Tim Whatley
Mar 28, 2010



Pete Carroll Russell Wilson retire bitch

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008




it's going to be the big qb fight

Chris James 2
Aug 9, 2012



Tim Whatley posted:

Pete Carroll Russell Wilson retire bitch

Probably Magic
Oct 9, 2012



Finding myself in a position where I am rooting for the Texans to win a game of football, questioning the decisions that led me to this point in life.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020



The giants will fire their FO and use their 2 top ten draft picks to draft playmakers and go on to win the super bowl.

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

A
G****Y
W*P


Pillbug

fsif posted:

Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it.

But the thing is that a 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2 is way more valuable than a three yard run. I assume those two plays aren't treated equally in DVOA, but how does the algorithm weigh the former versus the latter?

I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon


Nap Ghost

The Browns don’t play this week so it is a mercy.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002


fsif posted:

Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it.

But the thing is that a 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2 is way more valuable than a three yard run. I assume those two plays aren't treated equally in DVOA, but how does the algorithm weigh the former versus the latter?

It's possible (maybe even likely) that DVOA is biased in favor of offenses that convert tons of first downs above all else, but that's almost immaterial at this point anyway. It's loaded with so many opaque calculations that purport to account for game scripts, opponent adjustments, and sometimes even preseason projections, that trying to even meaningfully critique the esoteric percentages it spits out is a fool's errand anyway. It's just an unscientific process where some nerd moved enough toggles on his spreadsheet to finally output the power rankings he wanted.

And in spite of all of the highfalutin equations, the explanation for the DVOA rankings always come down to the same concepts that the layperson has talked about for years: this team won by a lot, this team only beat bad teams, and this team had some bad luck with turnovers.

Sure, sure. But how is it ranking my team right now? That's all that matters.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017




Mr. Nice! posted:

I guess I’ll just go close my thread again :smith:

You gotta link it in the previous N/V if you want it to catch traction, too many posters use bookmarks only these days

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020



indigi posted:

I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb

Yeah. Ultimately the game of football is “get 10 yards on four tries”. Repeat until points or until the value of punting on fourth down outweighs the value of going for it on fourth down.

A new set of downs gives the team an opportunity to try a 40 yard bomb.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005



indigi posted:

I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb
Obviously, but consistency and repeatability is not the same as value added. What are the expected values of the 40 yard bomb versus the 3 yard run, with probability of success, depending on your field position and team/game context?

Stats are dumb. Eye test is all that matters.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




There are bonus points for extra yards past a first downs, as well as scores or being in the red zone. Because converting lots of 3rd and shorts is definitely more predictive then the occasional 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2, but if you can get 40 yards on 3rd and 2, you're definitely winning that game more often in the moment.

fsif posted:

Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it.

DVOA doesn't factor in preseason stuff, that's a different stat, DAVE that they use so they can sort their ranking column in a semi-sensible order so that Green Bay isn't like 25th for all of September because of that blowout loss to the Saints week 1.

The formula is built off of this mess, and I'll just excerpt two paragraphs: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

quote:

Every single play run in the NFL gets a “success value” based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and the team’s lead or deficit in the game score. Teams are always compared to the overall offensive average, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. When it comes to individual players, however, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends to tight ends, wideouts to wideouts, and so on.

...

The biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule against teams of disparate quality. By adjusting each play based on the opposing defense’s average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; passing plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, or wide receivers. Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing. (Yes, technically the defensive stats are actually “offense-adjusted.” If it seems weird, think of the “D” in “DVOA” as standing for “opponent-Dependent” or something.)

wandler20
Nov 13, 2002

How many Championships?


https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1465697463726055429?s=20

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World


The formula being secret makes me assume it's fiction and all the numbers are made up.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002



YES, more dirt.

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012



TFF needs to make our own advanced stats algorithm

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002


sweet thursday posted:

TFF needs to make our own advanced stats algorithm

( Wins / Grit ) * Fatmen TDs

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




Speaking of the devil, Quick Reads is about how much of an outlier DeSean Jackson is as a deep receiving threat. Dude averages 45 yards per TD reception, and everyone else on the same planet as him is from the bad old days where that was the only kind of pass you could complete:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2021/desean-jackson-and-deep-ball-specialists

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002


Well, it's not really surprising. Most of those other players actually do things besides run go routes on every play.

Alaois
Feb 7, 2012

D U S T M A N


DeSean Jackson and Daryle Lamonica: name a more iconic duo

Woozie66
Sep 8, 2009


Completion Percentage over Expected is BS too. It's usually thrown out as a barometer of how good a QB is, but:


The 33rd Team posted:

A potential drawback of CPOE is that the quality of WRs targeted and their separation between defenders are significant factors in whether a pass is completed or not and these are not included in the public model.

It realistically should just be a gauge on the offense as a whole.

Alaois
Feb 7, 2012

D U S T M A N


always a good sign when your acronym is a transposed letter away from COPE

fsif
Jul 18, 2003



indigi posted:

I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb

Probably but that's not a fair comparison. There's no obvious 1:1 at all, but you'd theoretically want to find a way to measure the consistency and repeatability of the bomb versus an eight-play, dink and dunk sequence that eventually gains 40 yards.

When you're predicating your offense on making high-percentage, small gains, you're also opening yourself up for more setbacks on a per-play basis. Every play is an opportunity for a sack, a holding penalty, a drop, a deflection, or even a turnover. Part of how defenses have neutralized the Chiefs' and Bills' offenses this year is by giving them the easy short stuff and just counting on a mistake or two to stall out the drive.

Kalli posted:

There are bonus points for extra yards past a first downs, as well as scores or being in the red zone. Because converting lots of 3rd and shorts is definitely more predictive then the occasional 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2, but if you can get 40 yards on 3rd and 2, you're definitely winning that game more often in the moment.

Right, but that all comes down to we have no idea how those two plays are weighed against one another. All FO can do is say "we account for that!", but we don't know by how much. If I posit that DVOA overvalues converting third and short versus being able to consistently generate large chunk plays, there is absolutely no way to check.

I believe that FO is actually attempting to operate in good faith in spite of the Pats fan ribbing I do, but there are implicit biases in the formula that we can never tease out because it's just a rat's nest of confounding variables.

Vertical Lime
Dec 11, 2004



never argue again why the lions are on thanksgiving

https://twitter.com/SportsTVRatings/status/1465710413824204810

EvilBlackRailgun
Jan 28, 2007




Lol bills saints didn’t beat the parade

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


The Lions always get the first game when everyone is eating and not paying much attention right?

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002


Shimrra Jamaane posted:

The Lions always get the first game when everyone is eating and not paying much attention right?

I dunno but they should get that block of time after everyone has eaten and is either falling sleep in a chair or taking a huge dump.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




EvilBlackRailgun posted:

Lol bills saints didn’t beat the parade

Inflatable Goku > Trevor Siemian.

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon


Nap Ghost

IMO even if you didn’t have Detroit in there and stuck in the Jags, you would get similar ratings. Think of it more of a captive home audience to gather around TV while everything is closed and there is less distraction. Detroit is not the ratings maker but then again maybe the family will bond around making GBS threads on them vs arguing about Trump or whatever

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kiimo
Jul 24, 2003



LiquidFriend posted:

I remember when Eric Berry had a pick 2 to seal the win at Atlanta.

It's too bad cancer Haglund, being kind of crazy wrecked him.

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