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Rooster Brooster posted:This post is only 685 words long. It was cathartic and I would have read 60,000 words on it. Hamhandler posted:It might just be me but I am a lot more interested in their less convoluted stats and the stuff where my interest outweighs my guilt about them paying some poor Bangladeshi guy $5 a day to count how many times Christian Wilkins is in coverage, Same but I'd question how PFF even tallies those numbers. There was that blurb from a couple weeks ago about how Mac Jones—despite having two actual turnovers in the game—had no "turnover-worthy plays."
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Dec 6, 2021 15:44
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DVOA is what happens when people who don’t know poo poo about statistics try to analyze statistics. PFF is what happens when people who don’t know poo poo about football try to evaluate football. sweet thursday posted:Interesting point. We need an advanced stat to take into account the competing advanced stats to see which one wins out e: by my count, the lions are actually a 69% win team, and the fraudulent ravens are under 30% Magicpants fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Dec 6, 2021 |
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Dec 6, 2021 16:07
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Mega64 posted:Advanced stats say Kirk Cousins is the greatest quarterback of all time, so clearly it is the football game that is wrong. Wait I just looked it up and Kirk Cousins is somehow the #2 QB in both DVOA and PFF. Teddy Bridgewater is #11 and #14. Lamar Jackson in the 20s.
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Dec 6, 2021 16:25
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mac jones is going to absolutely dominate every advanced statistic
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Dec 6, 2021 16:29
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fsif posted:Wait I just looked it up and Kirk Cousins is somehow the #2 QB in both DVOA and PFF. I mean yeah, that makes sense this year because Lamar's been bad at passing. By passer rating: Cousins - 3rd, Teddy - 16th, Lamar - 23rd By AYA: 4th / 17th / 20th By QBR (the running QB friendly one): 9th / 22nd / 15th Cousins is an irritating guy to watch for a variety of reasons, but he's completing 68.4% of his passes has a 25 to 3 TD to ints and despite playing that awfully safe, is averaging 7.5 YPA and has attempted the 5th most passes in the league, so it's not like they're just refusing to throw the ball when Zimmer gets constipated with a 4 point lead.
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Dec 6, 2021 16:38
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the thing that guys like cousins and jimmy g have in spades that advanced stats really like is that they're mostly effecient and get the ball to their playmakers, which is what the patriots perfected to the tune of 6 super bowls. butt what the stats generally dont pick up on is the situation, which is much more important to winning, and those goofs are lame ducks who make goofy lame decisions and who dont get any better when the defense gets better.
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Dec 6, 2021 17:23
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Speaking of stats, is there a particularly good source of data for NFL stuff? I'm talking at least being able to export CSVs automatically but ideally an API. It just seems like every option was geared towards fantasy/gambling stuff and cost a pretty penny. Basically I'd love to write something that actually builds my own stupid dumb rear end advanced stats, but am stymied by the lack of easily plugged in stats without having to like page scrape PFR.
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Dec 6, 2021 17:38
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wilderthanmild posted:Speaking of stats, is there a particularly good source of data for NFL stuff? I'm talking at least being able to export CSVs automatically but ideally an API. It just seems like every option was geared towards fantasy/gambling stuff and cost a pretty penny. IDK if it's what you're looking for but I've been using the data from this repo (for making this, specifically).
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Dec 6, 2021 17:47
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HappyHippo posted:IDK if it's what you're looking for but I've been using the data from this repo (for making this, specifically). That is certainly better than scraping PFR! Thank you.
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Dec 6, 2021 17:48
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Chucktesla posted:Can any of these big brained stat guys tell the difference between split zone and duo The best film study guys have trouble figuring out the difference between split zone and duo all the time Hamhandler posted:IMO the generation of some of these complicated and weighted composite statistics(like DVOA, QBR, etc.) are a fool's errand and it doesn't seem like they're that useful from a business standpoint. Are the people satisfied by "was this guy good" statistics really going to buy a subscription, or is it the guy who wants to know how often the DE lines up at DT without spending three hours on NFL gamepass? It might just be me but I am a lot more interested in their less convoluted stats and the stuff where my interest outweighs my guilt about them paying some poor Bangladeshi guy $5 a day to count how many times Christian Wilkins is in coverage, You hit the nail on the head with this, DVOA and QBR don't really help actual football teams with anything other than, make better plays and number goes up. It's more just forum and twitter fodder so fans can compare and argue about which teams are better according to the number. The guys at PFF are geniuses though. They can poo poo out whatever grades they want and teams will happily pay the subscription fees because it saves them from having so many scouts and coaches breaking down film to get player grades from around the league.
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Dec 6, 2021 17:53
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I really hope NFL teams aren't using PFF grades for player evaluation. Kalli posted:I mean yeah, that makes sense this year because Lamar's been bad at passing. I wanna know what franchise quarterbacks (let's say guys who have played on the same team for three years or more) have the most failed attempts at 4th quarter comebacks. Cousins must be very near the top of that list.
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Dec 6, 2021 17:54
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:I wanna know what franchise quarterbacks (let's say guys who have played on the same team for three years or more) have the most failed attempts at 4th quarter comebacks. Cousins must be very near the top of that list. I guess you'd have to define the parameters, since like, that's just every loss otherwise. Though It'd be hard to define this metric in a way that doesn't poo poo all over Matthew Stafford forever and ever amen.
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Dec 6, 2021 17:56
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I got a metric, it's called rings
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Dec 6, 2021 17:58
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The advanced metrics love intentional grounding on a 4th and long. If those computers could pop boners they would
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Dec 6, 2021 18:00
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At least half the NFL teams owners are swayed by PFF grades and annoyed if their analytics departments don't poo poo out similarly easily digestible dribble.
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Dec 6, 2021 18:00
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Kalli posted:I mean yeah, that makes sense this year because Lamar's been bad at passing. Can't speak for DVOA, but PFF is supposed to account for rushing, no? And even past that, what's the value in 2021 of a quarterback ranking that can't meaningfully rank QBs like Lamar, Kyler, Allen, or Hurts? The broader point is that advanced analytics is purporting to tell us things that our eyeballs and conventional stats can't and they have agreed that Kirk Cousins is the second best quarterback in football and that Teddy Bridgewater is flirting with Top 10 status.
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Dec 6, 2021 18:00
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The thing with Cousins is the Vikings are really poorly coached. They should win so much more than they do and that's an indictment on Zimmer more than Cousins IMO. Zimmer is supposed to be a defensive coach and the Vikings are 9th worst in points allowed, 9th in most points allowed per game, 3rd in most yards allowed per game. What the hell were they even doing in that last drive against the Lions yesterday? Nodoze fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Dec 6, 2021 |
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Dec 6, 2021 18:07
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https://twitter.com/PFF_AndrewR/status/1467855154414342147?t=BrPAi9zqfv6kZcqO6XgTUg&s=19 Love to say words like Big Time Throw when talking about our serious advanced statistical analysis
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Dec 6, 2021 18:11
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Nodoze posted:The thing with Cousins is the Vikings are really poorly coached. They should win so much more than they do and that's an indictment on Zimmer more than Cousins. That's the thing with coaches. I think there's like maybe a handful who can actually elevate one particular side of the ball. The rest, the best they can do is get out of the way. This is particularly exacerbated on defense. Mike Zimmer is not a defense guru. He's a guy who was in the right place at the right time for a few years with some really good players. He will never coax a top 10 defense out of mediocre players. He's a dud.
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Dec 6, 2021 18:15
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Chucktesla posted:https://twitter.com/PFF_AndrewR/status/1467855154414342147?t=BrPAi9zqfv6kZcqO6XgTUg&s=19
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Dec 6, 2021 18:17
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Dec 6, 2021 18:19
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***BIG TIME THROWS***
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Dec 6, 2021 18:20
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fsif posted:Can't speak for DVOA, but PFF is supposed to account for rushing, no? And even past that, what's the value in 2021 of a quarterback ranking that can't meaningfully rank QBs like Lamar, Kyler, Allen, or Hurts? I mean the thing is, where should Lamar be ranked right now? Remove his name and look at what he's doing on the field. He's inaccurate, throwing a lot of interceptions, not scoring touchdowns and taking a shitload of sacks. He's a very good runner on a team with no running backs and average-ish receiving weapons playing like mid-career Vick right now. In comparison, Kyler Murray is #1 in DVOA and .... 26th???? in PFF (and 1st / 1st / 4th in Passer rating / AYA / QBR) I mean there is no defense for what PFF's doing, but DVOA seems to have him right. Hell it's even got him 7th in DYAR which is about right for a guy who missed a month. I mean sure you can look at a QB and go, oh he's just doing this because of the situation he's in or luck, but Cousins is definitely drastically outperforming most other QB"s this year. Yeah we can look at him and go of course Mahomes is better, but he hasn't performed better this season. E: PFF may scramble rankings if you don't pay, that number may be wrong, all I'm seeing so far is that they've got him below Mac Jones for sure, lol. Kalli fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Dec 6, 2021 |
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Dec 6, 2021 18:20
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Cousins confirmed mvp. Numbers don't lie
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Dec 6, 2021 18:21
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E: maybe not.
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Dec 6, 2021 18:22
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sweet thursday posted:Lol I know we like to joke around here but jfc these advanced stats are garbage I know that Joe played better than the box score suggests and that the o line did him no favors but I think Herbert was better than a replacement level QB yesterday, despite what pff says
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Dec 6, 2021 18:23
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Kalli posted:PFF has Kyler Murray 26th, right between Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold, so lmao. That's awful, just terrible. I mean how can they have Darnold at 27!?
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Dec 6, 2021 18:23
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:That's awful, just terrible. I mean how can they have Darnold at 27!? They don't give you the actual rankings unless you pay, so he's not 26th, he's just worse then Mac Jones. Daniel Jones is a 71.6, Kyler Murray's at 82.7, Mac Jones 83.9
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Dec 6, 2021 18:25
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Kalli posted:I guess you'd have to define the parameters, since like, that's just every loss otherwise. Traditionally going into the 4th quarter down and winning would be considered a "comeback win", but I think that's way too broad. Specifically, let's say you are down in the final 5 minutes. How has Cousins done in that situation vs his peers?
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Dec 6, 2021 18:26
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numbers are pure you can trust numbers, not like that cheatin bitch
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Dec 6, 2021 18:26
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Magicpants posted:numbers are pure you can trust numbers, not like that cheatin bitch Anyone remember ESPN's show Number's Never Lie? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgzReMoIPIQ
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Dec 6, 2021 18:28
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"People lie, but numbers don't lie" I explain to my Tinder date as to why Thanos actually had the right idea in the Infinity Saga
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Dec 6, 2021 18:28
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I think ADoT and CPOE are good advanced stats for quarterbacks. QB rating isn't good unless it's a score that dips below a 39 because it's funny. PFF is dumb
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Dec 6, 2021 18:33
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I don’t know, #39 is pretty untrustworthy imo
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Dec 6, 2021 18:34
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The last bone to pick I'll rant about stats is that they’re all just measures like height is measure, and just like the tallest guy playing basketball isn’t the best basketball player, doing well in some random stat is just that, it doesn’t mean they're secretly the best, it doesn't mean jack without context. Plus you know, most of these are pretty convoluted and its not clear what they’re measuring to begin with. Also, the irony is not lost on me that most of biggest proponents of these kinds of statistical approaches to football analysis never consider the most basic principles of statistical analysis like error and significance.fartknocker posted:I don’t know, #39 is pretty untrustworthy imo
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Dec 6, 2021 18:57
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What the hell is a replacement level QB and where do you get one? Asking for a franchise.
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Dec 6, 2021 19:05
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A.o.D. posted:What the hell is a replacement level QB and where do you get one? Asking for a franchise. Baker
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Dec 6, 2021 19:10
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Kalli posted:I mean the thing is, where should Lamar be ranked right now? Remove his name and look at what he's doing on the field. He's inaccurate, throwing a lot of interceptions, not scoring touchdowns and taking a shitload of sacks. He's a very good runner on a team with no running backs and average-ish receiving weapons playing like mid-career Vick right now. I shouldn't have muddied my original point by introducing Teddy and Lamar, but yes, Cousins should absolutely be ranked above Jackson this year. But above Rodgers, Herbert, Prescott, Stafford, and (I'll go there) Allen? Minnesota's offense is 15th in points per drive and 19th in yards per drive. And this is with an awesome set of receivers and one of the best running games in the league! It's presumably just his fluky, exceptionally low interception rate that's propping him up to the top? And anyway, if we want to contort ourselves and say that Cousins being first in INT %, fifth in completion %, eighth in TD %, and 13th in Y/A (and put aside his lack of rushing equity and his fumbles) somehow nets out to him being the third-best QB then, like, fine: how do we get Jimmy G at 5th?
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Dec 6, 2021 19:12
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alright alright alright lemme throw out some numbers atchya 7 thats a number, a lucky number. 1 is a number, the loneliest number. 2 is the lonliest number besides the number 1 you want some more numbers? check out these numbers 12 59 3203643680 4 5 6 how you like them numbers? i can go all day 8 281 92 473 93 8 again 45 390 a loving -2 eh? eh? you have enough numbers yet? 50 150 1050 goddamn 1000050 bitch
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Dec 6, 2021 19:25
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I can't really trust something there's infinity of
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Dec 6, 2021 19:28
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