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Nep-Nep posted:this is just a random thought but what if there being a scum cop was the bait and switch and anon is a town doc and plastic is also a town backup Sometimes the simple solution is correct, one or both of them are lying.
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May 15, 2022 01:52
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| # ? Apr 19, 2024 12:17 |
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Nep-Nep posted:this is just a random thought but what if there being a scum cop was the bait and switch and anon is a town doc and plastic is also a town backup Maybe I have no interest in voting anarc plastic or sng today
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May 15, 2022 01:55
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To sand, plastic (I think, I don’t wanna pull through right now but there were a bunch), and everyone else who was beating the “Anarc and SiV are obviously scum buddies, but let’s kill SiV first,” it’s time to pony up and lunch the other. It already blew up in my face that I put money on the wrong person, but if anything ANarc is more damned for the flip not less. Where are y’all at?
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May 15, 2022 01:55
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b-minus1 posted:Maybe If you are telling the truth, I see your reticence. But realistically there’s multiple protection roles if true and ANarc is a solid pick based on everything else. We can afford to flip one.
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May 15, 2022 01:57
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I don't normally like doing the false dichotomy thing, but we've got two competing role claims, that also have competing flavor claims. It'd take a drat good case for me to not vote either ANarc or Plastic today.
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May 15, 2022 02:17
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And I'm leaning ANarc, they had several opportunities to lean on Plastic's doctor claim yesterday, and their reasoning for protecting me also doesn't really line up with what they've said. I genuinely do believe ANarc is frustrated and struggling to keep up, but I don't think it's in a town way.
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May 15, 2022 02:18
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I didn't cc PA when he first claimed but I did straight up say that I DID NOT believe his claim and even asked for his flavor (which he refused to provide at the time) Tbh I thought doctors were supposed to like not tell everyone they're a doctor to avoid being the nk
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May 15, 2022 02:26
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AnonymousNarcotics posted:Day 3: Consistent on case against PA, adding information based on D2. Roleclaims a town protective role. This was from your read on siv from d3. Why did you characterize siv's claim as a protective one?
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May 15, 2022 02:30
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Well, it got quiet fast. Hopefully conversation picks up again by Monday.
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May 15, 2022 04:27
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wedding killed game
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May 15, 2022 04:43
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Yeah I wanna hear from Sand about results at least before we go ahead.
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May 15, 2022 06:35
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AnonymousNarcotics posted:I didn't cc PA when he first claimed but I did straight up say that I DID NOT believe his claim and even asked for his flavor (which he refused to provide at the time) Did you, though? Did you really. PlasticAutomaton posted:Honestly I kinda wonder if there's a scum doc that's holding the power away from town like the virus cop. Plastic first softclaims here on May 9th. AnonymousNarcotics posted:Basically what SiV said about PA is what I was thinking but they put it into better words. When PA said: The first time ANarc puts forth any suspicion of Plastic at all is early May 13th (or late 12th, depending on timezones). 3 real world days later. One of those days they were away for being sick. Which, y'know, fair enough! Shame they were around at the same time as when Plastic made his post. Might well have missed it originally, but it came up several times after so that only goes so far. Next time they mention suspicion of Plastic is when asked for reads: AnonymousNarcotics posted:I'm pretty sus on plastic and agree with siv's case on them Which, well, has the exact same reason provided as the one above: confirmed scum SiV cased him. AnonymousNarcotics posted:I think this is the right move for today. Still nothing about doubting the doc softclaim that, well, SiV used as part of her argument (and, no, I would not say that is counted in the empty cheerleading). "SiV cased him" and "his case is OMGUS" which uhh... scum v scum OMGUS there would be wild. PlasticAutomaton posted:Eh, SiV already outed it in thread, so there's not really much of a point in hiding it. I'm Backup Doctor. One of the scums is keeping it locked down so may as well force them to murder me once we find the scum doc. Plastic DOES finally make the claim explicit... when asked to by Toal. And even he acknowledges that it was made clear and SiV pointed it out already. If there is any reason to doubt his claim now then it ain't new. It's been there for multiple days. AnonymousNarcotics posted:I think plastic's role claim is complete bullshit. Plastic what's your flavor? As a tiny sliver of credit, ANarc's first post after IS calling the claim BS. Shame it's been sat there only being challenged by SiV until now, though. A few more nonspecific "I don't believe it"s thrown in that are exactly that vague. This still takes the cake though; AnonymousNarcotics posted:I also don’t believe his backup doc claim for *reasons* but I'd rather not say. Nonspecific mystery reasons are my favourite reasons. To be fair, again, this IS also a doc softclaim and most people probably figured out this is where it was going from there anyway. Not hard at all to infer, and it was made D3, so this also raises the question of "why was Hum the night kill" but WIFOMing that is a nightmare quagmire so I'll pass. Also, super bonus round! Let's take a look at their explicit doc claim. Or, more specifically, the targets therein. AnonymousNarcotics posted:Cool. I really wish you had copped me so I didn't have to claim but I guess it's time. Grandi N2, sensible. Uncountered cop, not going to be two scum cops that'd be ludicrous. A good, fine pick... on paper. It's wholly alignment agnostic in practice, though, since I would expect a scum doc to do that as well there if they were cautious of a watcher (tracker too, but I'd say that's to a lesser extent). But even then, since we've known for ages that Grandi was jailed it's kind of an empty claim to make. It's believable enough, but it's also like... okay? GDE N3 is one that takes a little thought, but honestly? I think it makes sense for a town doc to do. Or someone who wants to appear town, at least. Grandi couldn't be jailed for "protection" again, so gde's bodyguard would definitely go through and there's no doubt that she'd protect Grandi there. If my thinking here is right, then protecting gde there should ensure that it works and neither will die. It's a good move! After thinking about it, it's probably what I would do there too! Except... Sandwolf as a tracker is a known quantity at this point and ANarc was a decently strong vote candidate yesterday. It's not unreasonable to suspect that he'd opt to track them and so need to think about the towniest seeming option at the time. AnonymousNarcotics posted:I didn't say [SNG]'s scum I said I wasn't positive he's town. That's why I chose to protect the cop cleared player Granted, ANarc's own reasoning provided is a little shakier so once I saw the claim I may well have put more into it than they did. It also leaves its obvious implied next question of "why not Grandi then" unanswered. ANarc N1 is a wild pick though. Self-protection isn't impossible, so let's just accept that it's a valid option for now and not worry about that. Doesn't make a difference anyway. There's like no chance they were getting NK'd N1, realistically. There were many, many better options including, I dunno, anyone who voted for shwin and didn't immediately jump off at the first opportunity. Examples of such better targets include: Grandi, Hum, Toal, Maerlyn, or Hal. Do I believe they are a doc? Yeah, easily. It DOES follow from how they eventually played and there's no one else that it could be at this point either. Do I believe they are a town doc? Not in the slightest. The only things they have done (or claimed to have done, at least) that make sense for a town doc to do came well, well after Plastic hinted at his backup doc status, after he made it explicit and at the same time as they eventually finally made the claim explicit themselves. Everything before then was at its best implicitly accepting that Plastic WAS the backup by not even acknowledging it, and the worst was explicitly sheeping SiV. Aside from two claimed targets (which are great targets on paper), none of this makes any sense at all for a town player to do.
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May 15, 2022 11:36
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Will say, though, that I do also feel like I'm tunnelling a bit much on ANarc at this point. I am 99.999...% sure they're scum, which has easily been made clear at this point. Barring anything wild from Sandwolf, though, I do believe they are the best vote today. I'm just gonna put the drum and megaphone down for a bit now.
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May 15, 2022 11:40
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I am still a bit more behind here than I’d like to be, If I followed along correctly, ANarc is the “main” doc and Plastic is the backup doc, and b- has to be alive for any docs to work. I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that the main doc has to be scum because the main cop was scum, but ANarc certainly has a spotty post history so I’d be ok voting there.
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May 15, 2022 15:28
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Something very creepy I noticed is that when Plastic was on the chopping block, there wasn't a known scum on his vote except shwinn and he walked it back. Why weren't they pushing him out but all landed on binus?votefinder posted:Votecount for Day 1
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May 15, 2022 17:53
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Probably because Binus is generally a really easy D1 lunch because Binus?
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May 15, 2022 18:18
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I can confirm that ANarc visited GDE last night… I know that’s not really helpful.
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May 15, 2022 18:55
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:thinking:
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May 15, 2022 19:07
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Sandwolf posted:I can confirm that ANarc visited GDE last night… I know that’s not really helpful. ##vote Plastic
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May 15, 2022 19:19
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PlasticAutomaton posted:Probably because Binus is generally a really easy D1 lunch because Binus? This is before binus was even really considered or at least swapped to...it could be a coincidence but looks strange that not one other scum was like "hey yeah good point" and tried to build up votes on you if you are town. Things right now feel too "this is solved" and it's making me leery.
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May 15, 2022 19:21
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Dammit, I dunno.
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May 15, 2022 19:21
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I'm standing by 'either ANarc or Plastic', and rereading Plastic to make a case has actually pushed me firmly back into the ANarc camp. ANarc being tracked to me (and my action succeeding) doesn't mean they're town, necessarily. They could be an investigative role. And scum had to know the tracker was coming for them last night. So, if they're something like a scum watcher or rolecop, they could still visit me and I'd survive. All we know from the track right now is that they aren't a roleblocker and they didn't do the kill. PlasticAutomaton posted:Schwinn is definitely the better info lunch, and I feel like the sudden swerve to Binus gives us literally nothing to work with. PlasticAutomaton posted:I think there's scum between Sandy, ANarc, DB, and SiV. I'm still suspicious of Nep, but I'll come back to that as I review, as her content's seemed way better today. PlasticAutomaton posted:Hey guys you know who resisted both lunching Schwinn and DB? ##unvote I need to trust my gut here. ##vote ANarc
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May 15, 2022 19:35
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##vote ANarc
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May 15, 2022 19:36
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That's -2. Quick check in, should I protect Sandwolf tonight, or Grandi again? I'm thinking Grandi, because even a town result gets us info, but I'm also worried about the possibility that the last scum is a godfather.
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May 15, 2022 19:40
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##vote ANarc Hopefully she's the scum doc. I'd personally protect cop, if Plastic is activated to doc he can protect Sand if he's telling the truth right?
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May 15, 2022 19:44
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Lotus also wrote a really good synopsis, ANarc has had a lot of problematic votes and posts agreeing with scum, and I can't see scum Plastic fighting tooth and nail with SiV and getting her eliminated before she had a chance to kick off her arson targets...I might have talked myself down from Plastic a bit. If ANarc doesn't flip scum I'm well and truly lost I think.
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May 15, 2022 19:50
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Cool, sounds like a plan, then. Just in case I do die tonight, wanna get a last few thoughts down: My shortlist for who could be scum is either absurdist binus or ballsy-play SNG, and I'm leaning SNG. Nep-Nep's been present for the SiV push and now as well, and isn't impossible, but feels like an outside option. Lotus is going to look VERY townie after that big case if ANarc flips scum. I've still got those chinchillas ready to go for if Snooze flips 3P or traitor, btw.
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May 15, 2022 19:55
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##vote anon
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May 15, 2022 20:02
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 I hope AnonymousNarcotics enjoys their eternal nap!Votecount for Day 4 With 13 alive, it's 7 votes to execute. The current deadline is May 17th, 2022 at 4 a.m. UTC -- that's in about 1 day, 8 hours.
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May 15, 2022 20:02
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Case Notes: Patient’s prognosis did not improve during the day. Infection appears to be triggering a severe autoimmune reaction, leading to a sudden drop in serum antibodies. AnomymousNarcotics, Plasma B-Cells (Body-aligned Doctor) has been lysed Day 4. quote:Plasma B-Cells (Body-aligned Doctor). 
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May 15, 2022 20:50
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Votecount for Day 4 AnonymousNarcotics (7): Lotus Aura, PlasticAutomaton, Toalpaz, girl dick energy, sandnavyguy,  PlasticAutomaton (1): Toalpaz, girl dick energy, sandnavyguy (0): Maerlyn, Snooze Cruise (0): girl dick energy, Not Voting (5): AnonymousNarcotics, b-minus1, Grandicap, Hal Insandenza, Nep-NepWith 13 alive, it's 7 votes to execute. The current deadline is May 17th, 2022 at 4 a.m. UTC -- that's in about 1 day, 8 hours.
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May 15, 2022 20:50
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Case Notes: Patient stable overnight, responding positively to oxygen treatment so far. No one died Night 4. 
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May 16, 2022 11:33
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Votecount for Day 5 Not Voting (12): b-minus1, girl dick energy, Grandicap, Hal Insandenza, Lotus Aura, Maerlyn, Nep-Nep, PlasticAutomaton, sandnavyguy, Sandwolf, Snooze Cruise, Toalpaz With 12 alive, it's 7 votes to execute. The current deadline is May 18th, 2022 at 7 p.m. UTC -- that's in about 2 days, 8 hours.
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May 16, 2022 11:33
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You take the good with the bad, I guess. I take it that means PA activated and guessed right?
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May 16, 2022 11:35
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Or that PA's been playing 5D chess this whole time and is super scum, and SNG guessed right.
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May 16, 2022 11:36
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I protected Grandi and was successful again.
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May 16, 2022 11:39
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Might as well drop my claim now since it's finally relevant and helpful. I'm a rolecop (no consciously made breadcrumb, because I'm terrible at that really) and checked the following in order: N1 Maerlyn; vanilla. Went with a light town read at end of D1 that wasn't all that likely to be NK'd. Expected something that'd give me a reason to trust or distrust, and after the claims started happening D2, along with scum cop, I figured vanilla would be more likely to be town. Pretty sure you can see me actively agree more with Maer specifically at that point, even. N2 Grandi, blocked naturally. Paranoia, plain and simple. Misplay, 100%. In hindsight, GDE would've been better and potentially helped with two at once. I had a few possibilities and definitely spent way too much time thinking through 'em all. I thiiiink my first post being asking SNG who he blocked can help infer this one, but I admit that's a bit of a stretch. N3 ANarc. Shouldn't require much explanation. I was thoroughly certain they were scum and expected that result and wanted to confirm it. Either way, I figured it'd be useful to prove they're scum. You might even be able to tell that I retroactively found stuff in their posts to justify giving that as a reason. Rolecopped Plastic last night to check one way or the other and he really is a Doctor. Didn't specify "backup" though so could go either way. I want to believe he's backup and being active now just removed that qualifier (since it'd be redundant now). It would be phenomenally ballsy play to hammer a teammate d1 and annihilate another d3 like he did, but who knows. SNG and Plastic should def both claim their targets. Sandwolf can too but I think his matters less today.
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May 16, 2022 11:49
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So, we definitely false-dichotomied ourselves.
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May 16, 2022 12:03
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Sng is virus aligned. ##vote sng
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May 16, 2022 13:01
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Good job guys.
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May 16, 2022 13:02
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