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Yeah, why not? I've played Secret Hitler like... twice. I'll give it a shot. Eurogoon, GMT +2.
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Jun 19, 2022 13:27
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Everyone's acting so concerned about the upper paddle, but nobody's asking what happened to the ball?
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Jun 28, 2022 17:44
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Sorry, I'm just a little arkanoid about something happening to the other paddle.
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Jun 28, 2022 20:13
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My limited experience suggests we should be trying to lunch someone day one, even if a random guess would be more likely to hit town than scum. Plastic Automaton, does Green Wing's logic check out to you? Help us out here.
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Jun 29, 2022 07:52
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Well right now the only one who has actually voted put their vote on Jadecore. Nobody else seems willing to actually commit right now, so we need some better reads or this is going to come down to a last-minute chaos vote and that only favors scum.
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Jun 29, 2022 15:05
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I've never played a mafia game, on this forum or another. I'm just trying my best to osmose some vague understanding of how to read other people from the threads linked by OP and pretending like I know what I'm doing. Truth is I have no clue who to vote for and I'm suspicious towards people who do.
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Jun 29, 2022 15:18
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Bucnasti posted:So we gotta vote somebody off, and the good guys should decide here, or the bad guys will do it privately right? Even if it's not the correct choice it's better than letting the bad guys direct the first move. Am I getting this correct? What I think happens is the scum just sit back and let the town randomly set their sights on someone and then scum comes in later on and try to tip the scales towards someone they know is town. So maybe we should be focusing on whoever seems too content to sit back and not point any fingers at all.
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Jun 29, 2022 15:32
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We have one more lurker nobody's mentioned yet, Caffeinated Jerkoff. Come on buddy, give us your thoughts. Who looks scum to you?
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Jun 29, 2022 17:25
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I don't think we can read much if anything from people waffling on whether to lunch or not day one. I don't think it's obvious, and I had to think about it for a while before the game started, too. I think the question of who people are proposing we vote for is more interesting. Unfortunately I have no great reads. I got some weird vibes from Green Wing earlier with the way she switched from no-lunch to voting on someone else with the reasoning that that person was a bit mildly no-lunch as well. But this is day one and the ball has to get rolling some way or another, so this doesn't mean much either. I'm way more suspicious of wologar and My Second Re-Reg now both going for the "vote out the secret veterans" angle. wologar is the first one to bring up NeverHelm and then Re-Reg follows up and announces their intent to vote NeverHelm out. I'm also suspicious as to why both of them homed in on alleged crypto-veteran NeverHelm instead of confirmed veteran Plastic Automaton. The heat also seemed to turn on NeverHelm the second they said they might vote Plastic. This whole schtick is giving me some vibes.
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Jun 29, 2022 19:03
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I must've misread the order of posts. Sorry. I still think Re-Reg is acting shifty and I still wonder why NeverHelm is being targeted and not Plastic.
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Jun 29, 2022 22:48
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Green Wing posted:Further, wologar was actually saying that they might vote plastic so...I don't think any of what you've said re: wologar holds up, HyperCrab. Yeah, my bad, let me explain what my thought process was. In the first place, it was predicated on my mistaken belief (due to sloppy use of the ? button) that wologar first brought up NeverHelm. But even then my leaning was that wologar was actually town and Re-Reg was trying to use it as an opening to dogpile on NeverHelm. (This is all nonsense now though, the timeline doesn't work out, so that's just to explain what was going through my dumb head at the time.) It's just that the "vote out the veterans" logic only made marginal sense to me to begin with in the case of Plastic, and none at all in the case of people who had played like once or twice before, so anyone who has been edging close to that argument (i.e. wologar and Re-Reg) stood out to me. Additionally: My Second Re-Reg posted:Despite being A Real Vet™, Plastic hasn't actually done anything yet, so I don't feel the need to suspect them of anything. This doesn't square with me. The timeline here seems to be that NeverHelm says we should lunch someone day one (which everyone is in agreement with, so this is not weird), then soft suggests that Plastic wouldn't be the worst one to vote out with no information. This is followed by Re-Reg freaking out about newbies not actually being newbies and almost immediately sets his sight on... NeverHelm? Why? In particular, if Re-Reg is so concerned about non-newbies being in the game, why is Plastic's passivity (which seems way more scum to me than anything NeverHelm has said) suddenly a big enough factor to proclaim that Re-Reg intends to vote NeverHelm? (Oh, and "I hadn't actually voted yet" is a non-argument in my book when you explicitly said you were going to vote for someone.) This could mean that Re-Reg and Plastic are both scum and Re-Reg was trying to deflect attention away from Plastic. But honestly? I'm not sure at all. Am I being suckered into bandwagoning onto Re-Reg by Green Wing? I can't rule that out, either.
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Jun 30, 2022 09:00
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Yeah I'm not nearly sold enough on my own read that I want to hammer Re-Reg now. I want to hear some thoughts from the people who suddenly decided to pile on the votes. Maybe it's just because the day is ending in a couple hours, but I still think the justifications have been kinda slim. Also, nobody is stepping up to defend Re-Reg either, so either the scum have already decided to bus him or he's not scum. Also what happened to Plastic, who said he was going to write a post and then didn't?
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Jun 30, 2022 14:19
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Okay I just got back from the annual office summer party so bear in mind that my thinking ain't exactly 100% tonight. I feel like I should dump what's on top of my head though Right now I'm getting "excited town" vibes from Green Wing, not scum. Yeah she's posting a lot, but I don't think any reasoning has really been outright suspicious. Frankly my head is more at the people who voted but didn't offer a great deal of justification as to why - that feels like scum sliding into the vote late when it looks like town is already leaning a particular direction. I mean we know some of the votes on Re-Reg have to be scum, right? The votes I want to think about are Caffeinated Jerkoff, LupusAter, PlasticAutomaton and Bucnasti. I feel like Green Wing and NeverHelm have both at least presented some kind of reasoning for their votes. I want to point out first of all that PlasticAutomaton has now promised to write a post, then not done so, then come back and apologized for not writing the post, then still not doing it and just slam voting Re-Reg up to -1 instead. And then the next day, again, no post. What's up here? Why are you holding back? I don't like this silence on anything that would bring us closer to chasing down the scum. LupusAter has also not really said much of anything about their vote. Once again, I personally find silence much more damning than too much activity. Town wants to post, town needs to think through the situation and discuss. Sitting silently on the sidelines only to join the bandwagon in order to encourage a vote to pass is scum behavior. That doesn't mean I'm 100% on that either, but I do want to see some more active participation or I'm just going to get more suspicious. I don't have any great reads on Caffeinated Jerkoff. More of the same though - thin justification, but at least there's the part about chaos voting which I can at least see as a reason to vote someone out. Finally, Bucnasti. Nobody else seems to be willing to claim mason (and it certainly ain't me), so I'm willing to buy that's what they are. There doesn't seem to be a third mason, so to me it then becomes a meta-question of whether I think Shellception would set up a newbie game with a masonry where 1/2 was scum. It's kind of hosed up that I'm now apparently using a vibe from a moderator to make in-game decisions but that's where I'm at. For now I'm willing to accept Bucnasti is likely town, unless someone pipes up and claims. If it helps you feel better about me, my reluctance to vote on Re-Reg at the time was mostly because of exactly this, too many people voting without contributing or justifying their decisions and I didn't want to end the day and shut off that thread of discussion. I was thinking I would vote closer to the deadline if it came down to it, but by the time I came home from work and had finished cooking and eating dinner, the hammer had already been dropped. I wonder why scum chose to kill Question Mark though. He wasn't contributing much either, so why kill him? There seems to be more obvious targets. Could be that they want us to target one of the people advocating most closely for Re-Reg, or maybe they're trying to skirt around protective roles which might have had the same thought and were guarding Green Wing or whoever last night.
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Jul 1, 2022 22:45
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wologar posted:As stated before, it was probably to promote town infighting. I bet scum were licking their lips at Bucnasti's escapade, assuming he's not in their team. But why him specifically, is the question? Why not say LupusAter, Caffeinated Jerkoff or even me? Is this an indication the reason they didn't vote for any of those might be that they are scum? (Yes I know I also just put myself in that list, but bear with me here.)
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Jul 1, 2022 23:01
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NeverHelm posted:From what I understand this game's roles and alignments are RNG, so I don't think we can rely on this kind of meta-analysis. Well, I have been assuming that who gets what role has been RNG, but that how the game was set up was that Shellception had a list like "6 vanilla town, 1 town doc, 1 town rolecop, 2 town masons, 3 mafia" or something along those lines. I wouldn't expect it to be pure randomized chaos along both axes.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:06
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Green Wing posted:This means that Plastic must have the same role as the no-show, right? I think this is correct, and it also means Plastic can absolutely be scum. I mean, I think he could be anyway because my impression is that roles were RNG as described above, but also because roles were handed out before he joined so the moderators' hands were forced on the matter.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:09
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I have a suspicion that I know what Bucnasti is talking about, but I want to hear it from him too.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:20
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Okay, well, basically it seems the moderators did most of the setup on the 26th, and Re-Reg didn't join the discord until the 27th even though he signed up before Bucnasti, so for a day or so there was probably a masonry channel with only Bucnasti in it. That's why it looks weird.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:22
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Well we know there's a masonry (I absolutely won't believe we had a game with a single mason), and if it was a confirmed masonry then nothing that's been said makes any sense, there's no reason for Bucnasti or anyone else to not just say he knew for sure Re-Reg was town all along. It doesn't necessarily mean Bucnasti is town, but if he was scum, the masonry also can't be confirmed for obvious reasons. None of this means I really buy that we need to target Green Wing today, though. I mean, maybe. But my head is kinda fried, I should just go to bed and think about this in the morning instead.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:47
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Another reason I think Bucnasti is town: Consider the situation in which Re-Reg is town but Bucnasti is scum and the two are in a masonry together. Bucnasti would immediately tell the other scum this. This would put them in a perfect position to use the masonry as a way to influence Re-Reg's vote for the duration of the game, or sap him for information. But instead (assuming at least some of the D1 votes were scum) they decided to lunch him, immediately denying themselves a game advantage. We can argue about exactly how advantageous it is to have secret scum in a masonry, but I can't imagine a position where it would be a net negative for the scum. So this entire scenario doesn't check out, it makes no sense for scum to dogpile someone they want to keep in the game over any other random townie.
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Jul 2, 2022 14:31
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Additionally, at minimum, if the scum knew Re-Reg was a mason that means he wasn't some other, more powerful role, which is another reason not to go for him day one over literally anyone else.
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Jul 2, 2022 14:33
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If you ask me, I still think the scummiest behavior is not saying much of anything, not contributing to the discussion, but voting anyway. My eye is still on some combination of LupusAter, PlasticAutomaton and one or two more - maybe Caffeinated Jerkoff, maybe cuntman.net.
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Jul 2, 2022 21:01
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All right, gently caress it, I may not be sure of this case but we need to get some action going, let's see where this one goes. ##vote PlasticAutomaton
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Jul 3, 2022 11:25
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Bucnasti posted:If they were dangerous wouldn't the scum have taken then out the first night instead of afancyquestionmark? On the flipside, since town has been suspicious of Plastic from day one as well, the same logic that applies to Green Wing can apply there.
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Jul 3, 2022 16:04
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I don't think it's so much that Plastic has any particular role, but that Plastic has more experience than any of us and can make better calls overall. If he is town, scum knows that and would be incentivized to get him out of the way to deny town an asset. Contrariwise, if Plastic is scum, they want to keep him alive so he can help them in the private scum chat. In short, scum have an incentive to night-kill townie Plastic and they don't have any such incentive to kill AFancyQuestionMark since nobody knew anything about what kind of role he had beforehand - but they still chose to. I agree this is another straw on an increasingly straw-covered camel's back.
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Jul 3, 2022 17:37
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I admit, there is no evidence, but I don't know what that evidence could be. Speculating based on what I would do in that position is the best I have to offer, and, frankly, it's better than nothing. Like, what else can we expect to go on at this point? If you have something, I'd love to hear it, and I'll change my mind (and vote) if I feel there's a better scum read somewhere else.
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Jul 3, 2022 18:03
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Green Wing posted:Also, I think HCT being scum is mutually exclusive with Plastic being scum I'd just like to point out there is a third option (and I hope just defending myself doesn't come off as being scum, because come on, town also needs to defend itself from itself): It's possible I'm misreading Plastic's erratic posting and he's just like that, and we're both town but I'm loving up my reads. The sad truth is it's slim pickings in terms of really good, solid leads and the main reason I've homed in on Plastic is because of his reluctance to  all the way back from day 1.However, more importantly: Green Wing posted:- I think LupusAter makes a good point that HCT talking so much about scum motives is suspicious I think this logic is completely backwards. Scum are the ones who have all the information and can discuss their options before committing to anything. As town, we have to assume scum are making the best decisions they can and that their decisions aren't just random - or at very least, scum's actions are considerably less random than town, which has to guess (especially day one). So talking about scum motives is the strongest path we have to success right now short of pulling some power rules out our rears (and I don't think we should start claiming already). We have to consider what scum would do, or should do, under certain conditions and then compare those actions to the ones actually taken. In fact, I'm growing increasingly suspicious of the people trying to insist that this is not an avenue we should pursue, while simultaneously not offering any other solutions! In other words, LupusAter and, I'm sorry, this includes you, Green Wing. All you're doing is asserting that trying to scumhunt is "suspicious" without much justification - and also note that there's a big difference between "useless" and "suspicious". I would not be saying any of this if you just thought it was a waste of time, although I have to point out that lurking is worse in that regard. Why do you find it specifically suspicious?
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Jul 3, 2022 20:21
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I don't know what's so outsized about it. Like I said, I consider it a strong tool in our toolbox. So, yes, I have been thinking a lot about what scum would do. And I have been posting a lot about it, too. That's not thoughts "leaking in", that's me outright bringing it up (because I think it's useful to do so). For the second thing, I mostly mean LupusAter there. Right now I'm leaning more towards you (Green Wing) being town but jumping at shadows a little too much. Mostly though I just want you to realize that trying to downplay discussion of a topic is in itself suspicious, as I feel you're trying to do.
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Jul 3, 2022 20:33
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LupusAter posted:Answering for myself: it's true, scumhunting is cool and good and something everyone should do. The thing that makes this tilt towards suspicion is that this reading into what the scum did and didn't do is a perfectly good way to look at things later in the game, when there are actual patterns to be seen. Harping on it right now makes you look like you're doing something useful while also providing with little substantial insight, making this some perfectly plausible deniability for later. Now, I am not going to accuse you because of stuff you haven't done yet, but this could be a very good bit of setting up credibility for later. Or you could just be town and a bit too in love with a theory. All right, that's fair. I don't agree, but it's fair. But then, I want to hear from the rest of y'all. I think I've said everything that's on my mind for now, I'm dying to hear some other theories from those of you who aren't posting as much.
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Jul 3, 2022 20:45
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Game is hard right now, but I feel like whatever happens tonight, tomorrow will be easier. People have posted a lot of reads so depending on what the flip shows, we should know something we didn't know today, tomorrow.
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Jul 4, 2022 14:06
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wologar posted:I don't think a 50% chance to gift the game to scum is worthwhile at this stage and I've been doubting myself after I made my last post. I don't disagree with your outcome matrix, but do we have a vote with a better than 50% chance of a good outcome somewhere else? I feel like I should lay out all my current reads again for clarity, because we're getting closer to deadline. Green Wing: Likely town. Has been actively posting and trying to find angles, although I think she jumps at shadows a bit too much (e.g. the "posting exactly 10 times" angle from day one I think is a complete dud). Nevertheless, this seems more like overly enthusiastic town than scum to me. Bucnasti: Likely town. The whole masonry bit seems too specific to make up on the spot, the logic checks out, and I think scum would've tried to defend Re-Reg if Bucnasti was a scum mason. PlasticAutomaton: Likely scum. Posting erratically, only posting the occasional hint that we could probably have figured out on our own, i.e. wanting to appear helpful but isn't actually. Implies he has a role early which seems suicidal. However, I am cursed to never be sure of anything so there's a chance he's just town and kind of apathetic. I do agree with the possibility of there being scum among the people who didn't vote, but it could also be misdirection. LupusAter: Likely scum. Has been spending most of day two discouraging people from following trains of thought related to what the scum might be thinking and casting soft suspicion on Green Wing, who I think is likely town. Voted Re-Reg on day one with the justification that "advocating for people not to play the game isn't a good look", but seems to be doing the same thing now. Hasn't contributed any new theories or any scum reads. This combination of passivity and discouraging lines of questioning is giving me bad vibes. NeverHelm: Slightly town. Has been posting theories and actively participating. Not a strong read. Caffeinated Jerkoff: Slightly town. Similar to NeverHelm, not a strong read, but having similar scum reads to me might be making me more inclined to believe he's town. Jadecore: Slightly scum. Seems to be trying to muddle the waters about PlasticAutomaton in her latest post while handwaving vaguely in my direction without outright wanting to call me scum. Day one reads were similarly wishy-washy, but ultimately landing on weakly anti-Green Wing and anti-Re-Reg. Gives me the feeling of someone trying their best to not appear too passive, but also not contribute anything that is strongly going to direct anyone in the direction of people they know are scum. cuntman.net: Slightly scum. Has mostly been posting about Green Wing and not participated in any broader sense towards finding scum. Very reactive posting. Passivity is bad for town and good for scum, so that makes me lean a little towards scum. wologar: Slightly scum. I don't buy the "Plastic likely has an important function" angle, because I think it's much more likely Shellception simply set up the game for a count of 13 and knew she could find replacements if we fell short, so getting Plastic into the game was just matter of course and does not hold any special significance. Other than that, hasn't been posting much of anything or voting, which is why they get a slightly scum rating instead of a neutral rating - but only because I think passivity is scummy. This is not a strong read. Cloacamazing: Neutral. She hasn't been posting much day two and is in going to get a moderator warning if this keeps up until the end of the day. Mostly seems to be suspicious of Green Wing which could be a scum thing, but is too soft for me to really consider it a vibe.
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Jul 5, 2022 11:18
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Maybe my rating is unnecessarily suspicious there. I debated just putting neutral there instead and maybe I should have. It's mostly that you've mostly agreed with other people, besides the "Plastic must've filled in an important slot" theory, which I don't think is particularly useful - but maybe that's not a reason to be suspicious.
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Jul 5, 2022 15:52
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Jadecore posted:There are probably third party roles in SA Mafia that want to get flipped, right? The SA Mafia wiki lists a role called "Jester" that explicitly wants to get killed, but it also says that's an uncommon role. I can see why, and on the basis of that I assume Shellception wouldn't put a role like that in a beginner game.
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Jul 5, 2022 17:18
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Bah, I feel like this day has gone on so long I've worked my brain into a knot. I really wish we had more information to go on, but the day is going to end soon. Right now, I'm still comfortable keeping my vote on Plastic, so if anyone has a better case, now's the time to pull it out.
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Jul 5, 2022 17:43
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No elimination? I can't imagine mafia would intentionally fail to night-kill, so this confirms we have some kind of protective role in our midst. That person should probably still keep quiet about it, though. Okay, gently caress. Wologar was town. And to be honest, I kinda feel like the way the thread flipped to him at the end there was a little weird and maybe a bit too fast. Unfortunately all the people who voted for him besides Plastic and maybe cuntman are people I had pegged as neutral-to-slightly-town, so clearly I need to recalibrate my loving scumdar.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:14
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Also, yeah, I've had my eye on LupusAter for a while now so ##eliminate LupusAter sounds like a worthwhile idea to me.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:21
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Bucnasti posted:So no nightkill, what exactly could that mean other than a successful defensive role? I think I saw something on the wiki about a role called an Arsonist or something like that which sets up delayed nightkills. But my gut feeling says some kind of protective or restricting type role is more likely. Bucnasti posted:I'm in favor or eliminating lupusater, I've suspected they were scum for a long time, but I don't want to vote for it until I have a better idea if it's actually a good move. If they're scum then huzzah! but if they're not, is it better to have an inactive townie or one less townie? You're not wrong - an inactive townie is better than a dead one. Maybe it's worth waiting for LupusAter to return to the thread first, at least... okay, you've convinced me, even though I just voted, ##retract for now. I will vote again if we don't hear from LupusAter before tomorrow morning my time though.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:26
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If you think you know who all the scum are, I think you should just present your theory. Chances are you'll have a target on your back anyway if the vote passes and it turns out you're right. But I'm still on Bucnasti being town so I need more to go on, especially after you've dangled that in front of us.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:54
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All right, I mean, my reasoning is the same as it was before. I think the masonry thing is too specific to make up on the spot and I don't think scum would've piled on Re-Reg day one when they would've benefited more from keeping him in the game. If you have some convincing reasoning that counters that, let's hear it.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:03
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| # ¿ Apr 25, 2024 17:12 |
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Green Wing posted:words I don't follow this. Okay, you feel like the masonry is neutral value and not necessarily indicative of anything. That's fair enough. I can't say I'm so sure about it I'd stake my life on it. But that should only bring the read back to neutral. That brings up what I guess you'd consider erratic voting and/or arguing patterns, but I don't really feel like Bucnasti stands out compared to anyone else in that regard. In fact, there are people I'm much more suspicious of if that's the yardstick we're going for. But you seem pretty set on specifically voting out Bucnasti over anyone else, and I'm not convinced there's enough justification for that. Suddenly, I have a lot of theories about people's roles that I didn't have yesterday, and this changes my estimation of certain things. However, I also feel like I shouldn't bring up what they are. This is troubling. But the upshot is that I can see a scenario that would put us where we are now that doesn't require any roles that can protect other people going around. But, I also have no evidence that this is what has taken place. drat. Green Wing, do you think if Plastic claimed right now, it would support your assertion of him being town?
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Jul 7, 2022 10:45
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