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I'll give this mafia thing another go. I'm also a Eurogoon (GMT+2).
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Jun 23, 2022 19:32
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| # ¿ Sep 12, 2024 03:41 |
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Shellception posted:"We have taken the Pong upper paddle hostage. If you want to recover them unharmed, you all will need to follow our instructions."[/i]
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Jun 28, 2022 17:40
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I very much agree with the idea of executing someone today. For one, it gives us something to go off of on Day 2 since we do get to know their alignment. Also, not executing is giving up one of our precious chances to kill a scum, even if it's just a shot in the dark. Remember that in the absence of any role abilities that can kill, this is town's only way to remove scum. And depending on how many scum there are, we might not have bad odds just spinning the wheel and hitting someone at random (not that I'm saying we should do that). Some have brought up the idea of voting out the only "veteran" player - Plastic could be a dangerous scum, especially if he's advising the others. But at the same time, he could also be an asset to town if he's not scum. Though I'm not entirely sure how much that game experience would help when everyone else is inexperienced - some it comes down to meta-knowledge and "knowing the players", which might not be especially useful in a game full of newbies. In summary, scum should raise their hands so we can vote them out early
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Jun 29, 2022 07:11
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Speaking of the number of scum players... My understanding is that usually, somewhere between a third to a quarter of the players are scum in a typical game. This is a newbie game so that might not apply, but if that ratio holds we probably have about three or four scum with us at the moment. Something to keep in mind.
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Jun 29, 2022 07:28
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Yeah, in the absence of any better choices I might vote Plastic merely to make this a "pure" newbie game as was originally intended. That's sort of a last resort for me, though. I'd much rather vote for someone actually giving scum vibes. So far there hasn't been much of that, the closest thing being Jade for maintaining a reluctance to vote but that doesn't mean much coming from a newbie.
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Jun 29, 2022 10:21
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My Second Re-Reg posted:Alrighty, then I double down on my previous statement - I'm now headhunting people who obviously know wtf they're talking about and are trying to steer the rest of us down their own path. No hard feelings! Though I do find it somewhat ironic that you're seemingly trying to rebel against my "veteran influence" (from a single game, mind) by following the spirit of what I suggested that I personally might do if I had no better option: Voting for someone who is, going by your posts in the thread so far, a veteran in your eyes. Or are you actually saying that you think voting out someone who "sounds competent" (thanks, I guess?) is a good idea? It's not like competence by itself is a scum signal, any more than being a veteran is.
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Jun 29, 2022 16:20
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Having thought about it further, I have to agree that MSSR's swerve to wanting to vote for me is more than a little strange, on multiple levels. One, if they really wanted to vote for people who are knowledgeable, why go for me and not the Certified Forum Mafia Veteran PlasticAutomaton? The only explanation I can see is that they don't think Plastic is trying to "lead people", likely because Plastic hasn't actually said that much besides game advice so far. I'd hardly call that a point in his favor, though. Two, a "chaos" vote on "knowledgeable" players could just as easily be a cover for scum trying to get rid of people they think are a threat, while maintaining deniability for that vote going forward. I'll admit you could say the same about my provisional plan to vote Plastic, but I wasn't particularly attached to that plan. I would have been willing to put these things aside as just Day 1 weirdness, but this is deeply worrying: My Second Re-Reg posted:Still saying anybody trying too hard with the whole "logic" thing is just making themselves look suspicious. This is a very dangerous attitude to have. It's giving me those so-called scum vibes, actually.
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Jun 29, 2022 18:09
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You know what? Screw it. I was going to give you the benefit of the doubt, MSRR. But as has already been established, we really should vote someone out, and you've been rubbing me the wrong way. Voting you is much better than going with Plastic, and much better than rolling the dice on a random guess. ##vote My Second Re-Reg I might still change my mind but I don't think it's that likely. You're a better vote than most right now.
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Jun 29, 2022 19:54
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I'm perfectly willing to entertain the possibility that MSRR is just a townie who is being a little paranoid about being led about. It's not a completely unreasonable stance to adopt compared to anything else, and it's not like Day 1 votes have the strongest basis anyway. It's just that the particular stance they adopt feels anti-discussion. Not everything that is said in the thread is deliberately intended to persuade you to vote one way or another. Sometimes, it's just a matter of giving voice to your thoughts. A knee-jerk reaction to in-depth posting as crypto-veterans "controlling the conversation" doesn't really make sense to me, and it discourages other people from giving thorough statements (which is something I would appreciate, personally) and giving town more to work with. This could also be considered a way to control the conversation and one that would favor those with the most information, in other words the scum team. In other words, this stance is at best unintentionally anti-town and at worst a scum tactic. This is why I feel that MSRR is the strongest voting option for me at the moment. The fact that he's focusing on me specifically doesn't help, obviously - but that's a secondary concern. That said, I can see where Cloacamazing and HCT are coming from and being worried about bandwagoning. It is a little worrying how quickly the votes piles up, especially given that some of those votes have minimal justification beyond what's been said in the thread by others. While this does give me some pause, it's ultimately not enough to sway me away from the vote on HSRR.
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Jun 30, 2022 11:01
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What exactly do you mean by "too attention-grabbing", Lupus?
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Jun 30, 2022 12:46
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Also MSRR is really close to being hammered now but there are a few people who haven't gotten to post that much just yet. Part of that is due to timezones, but I would like to hear a bit more from you guys before any potential hammer drops.
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Jun 30, 2022 12:50
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Cloacamazing! posted:Oof, thanks. Ten posts per game day is kind of a lot for me to be honest. Especially for day 1 where there's really not much to talk about. I'm sure we'll see more wologar posted:True enough, although the last few votes felt more like a jury nodding and going "ah yes, guilty enough, yes" rather than personal conclusions. I don't think it's damning at this point either way. It's certainly not enough to immediately condemn anyone in particular. This sort of thing is more interesting when analyzing retroactively.
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Jun 30, 2022 16:22
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PlasticAutomaton posted:Also apologies for being lurky, I'm always really bad on day 1 as NeverHelm can probably attest to, but I've been trying to actively take a back seat for now and let you all figure out what you're doing and you guys are doing really great so far. 
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Jun 30, 2022 16:32
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Green Wing posted:The scum could also be simply not voting, and staying mostly quiet or just performing hesitancy - letting us twist ourselves in knots about things, both shielding them both from accusations of bussing (in the event of MSRR being scum) and piling on (if they aren't). There are enough quiet people for that to be feasible. I think, as I've said before, at this point. I think you might be going a little too far with some of these points. Especially that part about precise postcounts. Remember that people are still finding their footing here. I believe you might be twisting yourself in a knot.
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Jun 30, 2022 16:54
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NeverHelm posted:I hope my Day 1 instincts are better in this game. I was all over the place last time. Maerlyn posted:My Second Re-Reg, TOWN-Aligned Mason was chased out of town D1! Welp, so much for that. Sorry about that, MSRR. So... the first nightkill was AFancyQuestionMark. He seemed relatively inoffensive Day 1 aside from a slight worry in my minds about bandwagoning regarding the MSRR vote. The most notable thing in their posts was some poking at Plastic for not saying much. Plastic also highlighted my post about MSRR earlier - I'm not sure if that was just a "this is a good example" post or a "please follow this useful idiot" post. Not to mention Plastic was on the MSRR vote as well, and joined quite late. Nothing overtly suspicious but these little things make me want to keep an eye on him. Bucnasti posted:Like I suspected MSRR was a townie, which to me implicates everyone who piled onto them early, especially Green Wing. Fair enough, although I personally think that the people who joined in late with minimal justification are more suspicious. Speaking of which, you were one of those people, Bucnasti. In fact, you dropped the hammer... On someone you suspected was a townie? I know you said it was "for information" but there were plenty of others who had not voted yet. If any of them voted for MSRR, that would be valuable information on its own.
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Jul 1, 2022 20:34
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Bucnasti posted:Somebody will have to tell me if this is a faux pas or giving away valuable information, but since MSRR is gone I don't think it matters, I'm the other Mason. MSRR and I agreed before the vote that if it turned out he wasn't SCUM that Green Wing was the most likely culprit and that I'd do whatever I could to bring him down. What. Okay, I'll give you that MSRR's last post kind of backs you up here, and explains your aggressive posting, but this is REALLY weird. Neither of you are making much sense with that logic. And we'd have to take your word for it. Not to mention that, since this masonry doesn't seem to come with alignment info, you could still be scum and betrayed MSRR. Green Wing posted:This is a scum slip. I wouldn't be so sure. Unconfirmed masonries do exist. There was one in my last game.
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Jul 1, 2022 21:25
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...Okay. Given the tone of this post:My Second Re-Reg posted:Oh no, at this point signing up for this game is gonna be 100% worth it purely just to watch what happens next. And the fact that Bucnasti was so gung-ho right out the gate, I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that they were mason buddies. That does lessen my suspicions a little bit, since part of that was the sudden vote which this could explain, but I still think Bucnasti's hammer was a little strange so he's not entirely off the hook for me.
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Jul 1, 2022 21:33
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:I want to point out first of all that PlasticAutomaton has now promised to write a post, then not done so, then come back and apologized for not writing the post, then still not doing it and just slam voting Re-Reg up to -1 instead. And then the next day, again, no post. What's up here? Why are you holding back? I don't like this silence on anything that would bring us closer to chasing down the scum. Hyper Crab Tank posted:There doesn't seem to be a third mason, so to me it then becomes a meta-question of whether I think Shellception would set up a newbie game with a masonry where 1/2 was scum. wologar posted:This is the same reason why I didn't push for PlasticAutomaton. Would mods give a missing scum role to a veteran in an otherwise newbie game? I want to say no, but his role has to be important. Otherwise, the game could have started with one less person, right? I know I may be completely wrong about this but I haven't discarded it.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:03
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Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:I thought Plastic was the person who joined to fill in for the missing player. Also yeah, what is that about? This thing about MSRR being a sub for the Masonry is... strange.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:04
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Yeah, that makes sense. Probably just misunderstood what the mods said.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:23
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If anything I think the whole substitute thing is indicative of the masonry being real at least. It just seems too specific to be made up, while still completely realistic.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:42
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Yes, those are good points. Looking back on Bucnasti's posts, I feel they have the ring of truth to them. While honesty isn't necessarily a town signal, some of what Bucnasti has been saying lately (notably the apparent misunderstanding regarding MSRR as mason) suggests they haven't been coordinating with others besides MSRR. It seems a little too loud and attention-grabbing for a scum player, but makes sense for a vengeful town Mason. The fact that Bucnasti was the one to hammer is a little worrying to me still, but their masonry seems to have been unconfirmed so I can't really hold it against them too much. I think that for now, I'm willing to give Bucnasti's aggressiveness and... somewhat questionable logic at times pass as just them having a different approach to Mafia than my own. They are still on my shortlist if anything else incriminating comes up, however.
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Jul 2, 2022 15:16
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Bucnasti posted:What's the most likely scum behavior? Not voting to stay unnoticed, voting for MSRR to kill a townie, or throwing out a red herring vote? It's unlikely that the whole scum team is doing the same thing. They'd want to avoid looking too aligned, especially early on when they should have no reason to be. Personally I think it's extremely likely that there's one or more scum in the vote. Seven townies coming together over such a long timespan with no scum joining in seems far-fetched. During the night I had actually thought AFancyQuestionMark to be one of the top suspects for a scum infiltrator because they were so quiet on the first day, but that's obviously not the case. So, out of the other five MSRR voters still around plus Jade who voted then withdrew, which of them is the most likely scum? Green Wing is probably the most active poster in the thread and also the first to actually vote. But her posting seems genuine and mostly reads like an enthusiastic townie. Her logic for the vote also makes sense and is quite similar to mine. Don't think it's Green Wing. Caffeinated Jerkoff is much less active, and a lot of their posts are speculation about the scum team's motivations. Some of that could be attempts to mislead, or to gain credibility by looking "insightful" later. The fact that they are pushing the "scum deliberately avoided Green Wing" narrative so much is indeed curious. Among the more probable candidates I think. Jadecore distinguishes themselves from the rest by having withdrawn the vote later on. I'm not sure what to think of this. I do however think it would be strange for a scum to extend the vote against a townie just before the hammer and give more room to discuss, especially since being anti-discussion was a big part of the reason MSRR was being voted for to begin with. I suppose it could be performative, but Jade's other posts don't read scummy to me besides the early-game reluctance to vote with no information which makes some sense if you're a complete newbie. So I also don't think Jade is scum, at least that's what my gut feeling is. LupusAter is a bit of a mystery to me, he doesn't stick out too much in the thread which could be good or bad. I did find it interesting that Lupus specifically brought up the possibility of masons being around, and indeed considered Lupus as a candidate for the other Mason as a result. But that post doesn't really mean anything in retrospect. I'm getting very neutral vibes from Lupus. Could be town, could be scum. PlasticAutomaton is the one I'm most worried about. He's been sticking to the background a lot despite several calls to post more. We've gotten several justifications like "I don't want to interfere too much as a veteran player", "I was watching SGDQ" and "I'm just lazy". But at some point those excuses start to lose value. And he has piped in to explain game-related things, so he's clearly in the thread. His vote on MSRR also felt very bandwagony. However his posting isn't too far off what I remember from my last game with Plastic where he was town so... not 100% sure about him either. Finally, there's Bucnasti, who I have discussed in detail already. I'm still unsure what to think about them, but for now I'm leaning towards town. So, out of these Plastic seems the most likely candidate with Caffeinated Jerkoff in second and Lupus in third, with Bucnasti as the dark horse candidate. I am not yet confident enough in any of them to vote just yet though, and there are still the other four to consider. One or two of them are probably scum also, since I don't think the whole scum team would join the vote.
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Jul 2, 2022 22:20
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Hi everyone, sorry for the sudden absence. Family matters took priority. Still, it means I've got a lot of posts to dig into, so let's see what we've got. First off - Plastic makes his return to the thread after a long time. He throws out three town reads that a number of people agree with including me, a scumread on someone I've also had my eye on, with an accompanying vote, and a call to look amongst the non-voters for scum which I also did earlier. It's still not a ton to go by, but it's better than nothing. I agree that it's noticeable that nobody's really been defending Plastic much besides a small push from Lupus. That suggests he's either town or this is a 4D chess sacrifice play, the latter of which would imply that Plastic's lurking is deliberate and also seems like kind of a stretch. But it's not impossible. Plastic still feels like he's keeping his cards close to his chest which isn't the best look but I also can't see anything obviously shady. Still high on my list of scum candidates. What about Plastic's vote, wologar? Several of his posts feel like jokeposting (like the one where he accused himself of being scum) which is an easy way to look involved without saying much. His focus on meta aspects like the substitute needing to have a role to be relevant (which is very questionable logic) is eye-catching. And now that people seem to be starting to back off from Plastic a bit, his reaction is confusion. What I find most interesting however, is this set of posts: wologar posted:This is the same reason why I didn't push for PlasticAutomaton. Would mods give a missing scum role to a veteran in an otherwise newbie game? I want to say no, but his role has to be important. Otherwise, the game could have started with one less person, right? I know I may be completely wrong about this but I haven't discarded it. wologar posted:After checking some previous games, PlasticAutomaton disappearing from the thread seems par for the course. I would still vote him just for the replacement/role stuff. wologar posted:I don't think veterancy played a role, either. What I think happened is the following: In summary: wologar claims to have nothing against Plastic but is still gunning for him really hard for questionable reasons, which aren't even the reasons I find Plastic suspicious. And they aren't even consistent in what those reasons are. All while openly considering the possibility that Plastic's "important role" could be a useful town role, they still think that voting Plastic is the correct play. Personally I think one of these two are scum at this point. Maybe both of them, in the event that Plastic is a sacrificial scum. But wologar is giving me worse vibes right now. So I'm going to ##vote: wologar as well. I realize that might seem a little strange since my other top scumread just did the same. But I still stand by this logic. If wologar turn out to be town after all, then Plastic is a slam-dunk for my vote Day 3. These two stand out the most right now. but what about the rest? Most of the reads I posted last time still hold true for me. CJ has improved a little bit while Lupus hasn't really done much except trying to counter HCT's arguments, which is a neutral action in my eyes. Of the remaining three non-voters, cuntman feels like the strongest case for scum. I feel like he's not adding much and mostly just going along with what others say. Cloacamazing is similar but not to the same extent, so I'm less confident in that one. HCT seems good so far, haven't got any real reason to think they are scum yet.
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Jul 4, 2022 10:31
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That is also why scum tend to bandwagon on the early votes, assuming it's not for one of them. Sometimes even then, especially if that vote seems like a lost cause and they get brownie points for joining in. It is easier to join the town's misguided crusade than start your own, and it won't attract the same amount of attention as Green Wing's example shows. As I stated previously I believe we're looking at a mix of strategies from scum. The non-voters aren't a terrible place to start looking. I focused on the ones actually voting earlier because I felt that they had more to actually read from, but I agree with the sentiment that there's probably a scum or two among those that didn't vote. Because that was about a third of us, and that's roughly the ratio I expect for scum-town. If they are mixing up their plays as I believe, at least one is likely to fall into that category.
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Jul 5, 2022 10:22
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Slipping a Jester into a newbie game seems like a cruel joke. Can't 100% rule it out of course, but wologar's recent backpedaling suggests to me that they don't have such a role. It feels like a move meant to reduce the heat on them.
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Jul 5, 2022 17:26
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Uh... Is editing for that reason kosher? I did get to see the post before you edited it, so I know you're being honest, but still.
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Jul 5, 2022 19:34
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##vote PlasticAutomaton. I keep my promises.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:09
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Also: No nightkill! Nice. We really needed some good news considering how the votes have been going so far.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:12
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Green Wing posted:First of all, ##eliminate LupusAter. Hyper Crab Tank posted:Also, yeah, I've had my eye on LupusAter for a while now so ##eliminate LupusAter sounds like a worthwhile idea to me. Echoing this, by the way. Lupus soft-defended Plastic earlier, voted MSRR day one and hasn't been very helpful to town otherwise. ##eliminate LupusAter.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:22
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LupusAter posted:Second, I had a hellish start of the week at work and believed to have made the postcount during the weekend. I evidently miscounted, and the only thing I can say in my defense is that if I had someone to point that out, like a scumchat or a masonry, this wouldn't have happened. You obviously still are free to eliminate me, it'll make you get even with the missed nightkill.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:58
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I'm not entirely sold on Bucnasti as scum just yet - pretty neutral read on them so far. But I think this is a bit strange.Bucnasti posted:I'm still really in favor of eliminating lupusater, but i don't want to vote until more of us are confident it's the right play.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:36
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Green Wing posted:To elaborate - nothing to gain from setting out full theory this early in the day. Most confident about Bucnasti, I want to see how the others respond. I think there's enough in buc's behaviour to warrant people setting out their full reads rather than dismissing out of hand. I lean town on Bucnasti because most of their early posts D2 suggest that while they did have a masonry with MSRR, they weren't particularly informed otherwise (especially that part about MSRR being a sub Mason). If they are scum there wasn't really any reason for them to honor MSRR's final request to vote for you in retaliation, and I don't think they are lying about that because of MSRR's last post. So I don't assign any particular importance to that vote. Their narrative does hold up and my head. It could just be a really good act, but my intuition says otherwise. Their indecisiveness does muddy the waters a bit though, which is why I'm not ruling it out completely. And they could be completely honest about everything I said earlier and still be scum. Green Wing posted:In fact, I'll now go at far to say - I think the lack of a night kill confirms that Plastic is Town. This is a huge leap. There's another reasonable explanation: Plastic didn't take a risk at all, because he's scum. It's much too early to say that him surviving clears him.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:27
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Green Wing posted:The answer to both of these is clear and simple - because Plastic hinted be had a power role. PlasticAutomaton posted:The whole crux of the argument involved roles, so I figured I'd be open and pledge to claim if needed. It's not even saying I actually HAVE a role, I could just be loving with scum after all.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:46
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But I'll be stepping out for errands and be around before deadline, so offer's on the table if people are still concerned.
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I mean... You might be right about Plastic being town, but to go so far as to say he's confirmed town for not dying is a huge stretch. I'll grant you that your theory makes some sense, and is more compelling than random chance. But we don't have nearly enough information to clear Plastic based on a hunch like that.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:59
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Well, that settles it for me. Plastic, Lupus and Cloacamazing are scum. Maybe one more, but I'm fairly confident in those three.
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Jul 7, 2022 21:13
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LupusAter posted:Working from that theory, I think Neverhelm is the most probable scum? Voted third and then didn't retract it, which makes sense if they don't want to attract attention to themselves. By the way: There was something about your defense post earlier that I found a bit strange. It's not the strongest evidence, and might not mean anything, but it caught my eye: LupusAter posted:You obviously still are free to eliminate me, it'll make you get even with the missed nightkill. "It will make you get even with the missed nightkill". This is such a strange way of putting it, you're referring to town in second person. As if you're separate from the rest of us. Personally, I think this is a scum slip. Maybe you got a bit agitated and posted a little to quickly? I'm sure you're going to say that's not how you meant it, but this language is very unnatural for a townie if you ask me. As for you, cloacamazing - you've been on my radar for a while, but you didn't even give a reason for why you think Lupus should stay. You're also latching onto Green Wing's questionable "Plastic is town because he survived" narrative, which is exactly what I'd expect a scum to do. You've spent a lot of time just making empty posts to satisfy the lurker rule, rather than actually contributing. You're also inconsistent, I feel. You complain about people not dedicating themselves to a vote, but also say some people focus too much on reading the votes? I don't get it. I feel like you're just running interference most of the time.
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Jul 7, 2022 21:43
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That doesn't make any sense Lupus. Scumbuddies voting you would be slowing down their wincondition. They don't gain any time from that. It's the exact opposite. The day isn't ending either. At most they'd be going neutral if they can swing it into executing a town somehow. I might see them joining in at the very end, if it looked like a done deal and they wanted to win brownie points with town. But it won't "buy them time".
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Jul 7, 2022 23:08
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Yeah, I'm popping off soon as well. Hope I wake up to good news.
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Jul 7, 2022 23:13
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| # ¿ Sep 12, 2024 03:41 |
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All right! Glad to see I'm not entirely off base this game. Lupus turning out to be scum (and a roleblocker, no less) makes me even more confident in my reads on Plastic and Cloacamazing. The latter has a stronger scum case at this point, mostly because Plastic seems to spends more time making excuses for not posting than actually saying things and thus leaving little evidence to go on (and when he actually did participate, it was typically to vote a townie). But I think both are scum, so I'll stick to my promise to wologar from Day 2 and keep the vote on Plastic for now. I don't mind switching to Cloacamazing if that's what the rest of town decides, however. The main question in my mind is this: Was there a scum in the Lupus vote? Since this was essentially a bonus execution, I think scum had a lot less incentive to participate. But if there was one in there, I think it's either Caffeinated Jerkoff or Jadecore. I'm not especially confident in either of those as scum right now. Going by my Day 2 logic of scum diversifying their plays, there were one or two scum votes on MSRR. I'm thinking those were PlasticAutomaton and LupusAter, with Cloacamazing making a move on Green Wing to distinguish herself from them. For now I think I'm going to assume there were no scum voting Lupus, and focus on my other two scumreads. But if that isn't enough to end the game, then I'll be looking at others.
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Jul 8, 2022 09:29
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