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Game-Blouses posted:Just got offered a mega trade out of left field. 12 superflex dynasty. My Herbert for his Russ and JT. Probably going to decline due to the timeline I’m on, but I’ll be damned if that’s not intriguing. I'd keep Herbert without a doubt unless you're absolutely stacked at QB. JT's value is likely never higher than it is this offseason, unless you're competing this season and next I wouldn't even consider it.
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Jul 12, 2022 05:50
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edit: got two trades mixed up nm
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Jul 12, 2022 06:23
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ChuckBTY posted:Ok guys, I finally made the plunge and joined a (already ongoing) Dynasty league. Needless to say since I got the guy who lefts team it's hot garbage: I assume this is not SF. Whenever you post a roster, try to include scoring settings and how many teams. It is hard to grade a team without that information.
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Jul 12, 2022 12:34
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ChuckBTY posted:Ok guys, I finally made the plunge and joined a (already ongoing) Dynasty league. Needless to say since I got the guy who lefts team it's hot garbage: If you're in a rebuild then I'd avoid buying an aging RB. Sell your older assets before they hit their value cliff (Diggs, Hill, Montgomery) and try to get back future first round picks and young up-and-comers. Don't sell your own first round picks, they should be pretty high while you're rebuilding.
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Jul 12, 2022 12:57
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Swept my main league last season (1st place in regular season payout and then championship) and going to shoot for the unlikely repeat sweep. It would net me this super dumb thing we created called the Dynasty Pot that no one has gotten in the last 11 years. I’m drafting 10th for the first time ever, this is going to be tricky but it’s a 4-player keeper league and I think I can keep enough RB talent to go WR/QB on the first turn and then TE at the end of the 3rd depending on who is available. Still way too early to tell though, we go through a whole bidding process for waiver pickups from the previous season. Lordy I’m so loving pumped for football to start up again. Best of luck to everyone this season except the rest of the Goontier B-league!
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Jul 12, 2022 14:07
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Whoreson Welles posted:Swept my main league last season (1st place in regular season payout and then championship) and going to shoot for the unlikely repeat sweep. It would net me this super dumb thing we created called the Dynasty Pot that no one has gotten in the last 11 years. I’m drafting 10th for the first time ever, this is going to be tricky but it’s a 4-player keeper league and I think I can keep enough RB talent to go WR/QB on the first turn and then TE at the end of the 3rd depending on who is available. Have you posted your keepers yet?
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Jul 12, 2022 15:20
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fennesz posted:I'd keep Herbert without a doubt unless you're absolutely stacked at QB. JT's value is likely never higher than it is this offseason, unless you're competing this season and next I wouldn't even consider it. I think that’s where I’m at. Taylor won’t put me into immediate contention. I’d rather have QB stability. Who knows how long Stafford has and Teddy is just a backup for now. Might take one of Willis or Ridder if they are there at 2.04 in the rookie draft.
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Jul 12, 2022 15:49
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Sataere posted:Have you posted your keepers yet? Not yet, I won’t bore the thread with our web of salary, bidding, and max season keeper rules but I’ll boil it down for simplicity. Make note I’ll still get to make these picks, I’m just equating their keeper value to the round it’s worth. Definitely: Keep Najee at 1st round value Keep Deebo at 8th round value Pick 2: Keep James Conner at 8th round value Keep AJ Dillon at 8th round value Keep Rodgers at 5th round value Or if I ignore all three of them, I can try to outbid everyone for Chubb or Jones and then just use my 4th keeper on some unbidded flyer like St. Brown as long as no one puts him up for bid. These are also wildly theoretical because this could all change once my leaguemates start announcing keepers and we do out waiver bids. I always find it tough to share my keepers and get feedback because the way our league is setup I would need my own goddamn thread just to explain everything. At the end of the day I love it and we’ve been going 12 years strong, even with people getting married and having kids. Also wild card option: Keep Najee, Deebo, Mike Evans and Pollard for exactly the salary cap, then take the best available RB at pick 10 or 11 as long as I’m not reaching too far.
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Jul 12, 2022 16:18
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Whoreson Welles posted:Not yet, I won’t bore the thread with our web of salary, bidding, and max season keeper rules but I’ll boil it down for simplicity. Dude, it is the offseason. Bore us. It is hard to give an idea on keeper values if we don't have all the information. Even if you don't want the advice, it's always a fun thought exercise.
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Jul 13, 2022 02:41
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Fair point. If I get time at work tomorrow and can get in front of a keyboard I’ll go further into detail. It’s a fun league and honestly I love the planning going into the pre-season. It’s a lot of guessing who will keep which players and figuring out how many points they’ll have left to bid with.
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Jul 13, 2022 03:06
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Hey everyone - just wanted to make a plug for the SAS Dynasty League since we're trying to recruit for 2 members to help close out our league: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4003776 This is the last of 12 years of the league, and we want to be able to finish strong - if anyone's interested in joining up for a one-off to close out the series, you could very well have your name in lights (and a plaque) for your efforts! The two teams up for grabs are https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2022/options?L=34155&F=0011&O=07 and https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2022/options?L=34155&F=0002&O=07 and the details for the league are in the thread. Feel free to post if you're interested, stake your claim, and show us all how to manage a fading dynasty!
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Jul 14, 2022 01:45
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Alright my boss is out today. This is going to be a long post, I won’t be upset if you ignore it because it’s a lot of math. MEGA-EARLY OVERTHINKING KEEPER AND DRAFT SELECTION SESSION I’ll lay down the basics of the league and try to keep it focused on the main aspects that will help provide feedback on who to keep and draft for. 10-team league. 17-man roster. RB/WR/TE Flex. 0.5 PPR, rest is standard scoring except 6pt passing TD. 4 keepers each year. 460 point salary cap for keepers. Salary value is based on OA draft position. The year we started, 1.01 was designated 170pts, 1.02 was 169pts, 17.10 was 1pt, you get the idea. Waiver pickups during the year can be kept through three methods: The team that ended with them on their roster can lock them for 100 points, or if they aren’t locked they can be bid on through our Restricted Free Agency process. If they aren’t bid on at all, they can be kept by the team for 1pt. Additionally, drafted players can be kept only two times for a total of three consecutive seasons. After the third season, they enter the RFA and can be bid on by everyone for one final season. After that, they go back in the pool. Waiver pickups can also only be kept two times (either through locking for 100 or bidding), then they are also subject to the RFA for one more year, then thrown back. With all that in mind, now we get to the meat. Here are my best players worth keeping at their value. I’m leaving out guys like Darrell Henderson at 130 because that is way too high for him this year. Najee Harris - 155 Mike Evans - 142 Aaron Rodgers - 117 Deebo Samuel - 92 James Conner - 84 AJ Dillon - 83 Tony Pollard - 68 I have Dalton Schultz and Dawson Knox who can both be locked for 100 or if they slip by, kept for 1. Here are the players going into RFA this season and their STARTING bid value. Josh Allen - 176 Saquon Barkley - 165 Davante Adams - 158 Stefon Diggs - 146 Lamar Jackson - 120 George Kittle - 100 Nick Chubb - 69 lol Chris Godwin - 42 Aaron Jones - 28 Patrick Mahomes - 24 Overall pretty decent RFA class. If I keep Najee and Deebo at the very least, that leaves me with 213 points and I’m pick 10. The All-Star guys will probably get bid up well over 150. Which is where my conundrum comes in. With 213 points I can probably secure one of the guys on that list but it won’t leave me with enough to keep even Pollard, so I’ll have to take some lesser player as my 4th keeper. Then I’ll have to just wait and see who falls to me at the 10/11 turn and fill gaps. Would you guys rather keep Najee, Deebo, and then a 2-combo of Dillon/Conner/Rodgers, or would you bid way high to secure someone on that RFA list and pray nobody bids up Schultz, Knox, St. Brown, or some other flyer?
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Jul 14, 2022 15:07
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fennesz posted:I'm right there with you. MVS didn't drop any passes in 2021 either. And his catches and yards would have gone way, way up had Rodgers been able to find him deep. I think we were playing the Lions (I'm a Packer fan) and Rodgers missed MVS on three or four deep balls in just a series or two - and judging from Rodgers' reaction afterward it looked like he knew they were all his fault as well. The fact he was only ever a burner in Green Bay I think more had to do with Davante being as dominant as he was and just not really getting the reps he needed to make the next step. Rodgers has said this offseason that "80% of plays were drawn up with Davante in mind" that doesn't leave a whole lot of meat on the bone for a guy like MVS trying to flesh out his route tree. More smoke PFF posted:Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs source: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-wide-receivers-bigger-roles-2022-gabriel-davis-sammy-watkins
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Jul 14, 2022 15:19
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MVS is loving godawful and I cannot wait for people to pay ludicrous money for him in auctions when his actual value is like -$69
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Jul 14, 2022 15:31
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Poque posted:MVS is loving godawful and I cannot wait for people to pay ludicrous money for him in auctions when his actual value is like -$69  "I don't actually watch football"
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Jul 14, 2022 17:45
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MVS is 28, has never caught more than 38 passes in a season (which he did as a 24 year old rookie), and has a career 50% catch rate. That's across four unremarkable seasons. Maybe he'll change teams and see marked improvement like Robert Woods when he moved to the Rams, but it's more likely he's just a deep threat role player.
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Jul 14, 2022 18:12
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I'm thinking about Joe Horn who was nothing but a deep threat on the Chiefs for four years, went to the Saints and became a pro bowler it happens. And nobody is saying this is a sure thing at least address my supporting argument you're just re-stating what we already knew.
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Jul 14, 2022 18:38
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Poque posted:MVS is loving godawful and I cannot wait for people to pay ludicrous money for him in auctions when his actual value is like -$69 In 9 ten-team mocks with most/all humans he has gone for $1 every time . In 4 twelve-team mocks he has gone between $1-3. Also just did my first mostly human ESPN mock. They have got to get better projections. Chubb went for $23 on a $200 budget
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Jul 14, 2022 19:27
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Drunk Nerds posted:
Wonder if people are just feeling burned by how godawful the Browns gameplans were late in the season. Stefanski was having broken, janky-rear end Baker drop back a million times for no apparent reason.
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Jul 14, 2022 19:38
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Drunk Nerds posted:In 9 ten-team mocks with most/all humans he has gone for $1 every time . In 4 twelve-team mocks he has gone between $1-3. Right and please know everybody that I'm talking about a dynasty rookies and free agents draft not a real one. Like, Jacoby Brissett also went in the second round of this draft.
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Jul 14, 2022 19:42
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kiimo posted:Right and please know everybody that I'm talking about a dynasty rookies and free agents draft not a real one. Like, Jacoby Brissett also went in the second round of this draft. Yeah that's fair, but also NFL first round rookie WRs and 1st rookie QB off the board in a SF league absolutely go for more than $1-3 in an auction. If anything, MVS should be more valuable in redraft than dynasty imo.
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Jul 14, 2022 19:48
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Quiet Feet posted:Wonder if people are just feeling burned by how godawful the Browns gameplans were late in the season. Stefanski was having broken, janky-rear end Baker drop back a million times for no apparent reason. Chubb regularly goes for $40-55 on Yahoo and Sleeper. ESPN is just a little insane early in the fantasy season
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Jul 14, 2022 19:51
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MVS has a 50% catch rate because he was used in green bay exclusively as a long-bomb target. Short and medium passes always went to davante adams or whichever RB or TE was on the field. I don't know how to do this but you guys who are really good at stat lookups, I'd be curious to see the catch rating of all WRs for passing attempts of at least 40 yards or similar.
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Jul 14, 2022 19:55
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Quiet Feet posted:Wonder if people are just feeling burned by how godawful the Browns gameplans were late in the season. Stefanski was having broken, janky-rear end Baker drop back a million times for no apparent reason. Owning Chubb last year was a like a lesson in "how much poo poo you can take".
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Jul 14, 2022 22:43
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Stefanski is going to have Brisket throwing 50+ times a game
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Jul 14, 2022 23:20
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First off, I kinda love this setup, but I am a math nerd. Before I can figure out this breakdown, I need clarification on a couple of things. 1) Even though the keeper is are based on that points model, your regular draft is a snake draft? 2) Do you have to keep four keepers? 3) If you don't have to keep four, what happens if you keep nobody? Do you get four draft picks at the end of your draft? 4) Which players are you sure will be kept on other rosters and thus won't be back in the player pool? EconDad posted:Owning Chubb last year was a like a lesson in "how much poo poo you can take". While Chubb was frustrating, his ADP right now is pretty good value. He still had 228 carries for 1259 yards and 8 TDs, along with a 20/174/1 receiving line. He was the RB11 last year in performance, but people are treating him like he was a letdown because he didn't outperform his draft position. You drafted him in the first round and he was a low end RB1. This year, you can get him in the second and I don't really see anything to indicate he will regress terribly. He seems like he's being really undervalued this year.
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Jul 15, 2022 00:32
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I'm realizing all I have in terms of 3 WR + Flex salary cap/auction data is a couple of real ones each year plus a whole lotta theory. Please help me change that this Saturday at 1 PM PST, it's part of my weekly draft stream. https://sleeper.com/draft/nfl/853452954202640384 Theoretically, the market should bottom out higher, so basic BBQ should still work as a last-minute one-size-fits-all strat. But I need actual data to back that up. Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 05:06 on Jul 15, 2022 |
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Jul 15, 2022 00:39
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Sataere posted:While Chubb was frustrating, his ADP right now is pretty good value. He still had 228 carries for 1259 yards and 8 TDs, along with a 20/174/1 receiving line. He was the RB11 last year in performance, but people are treating him like he was a letdown because he didn't outperform his draft position. You drafted him in the first round and he was a low end RB1. This year, you can get him in the second and I don't really see anything to indicate he will regress terribly. He seems like he's being really undervalued this year. The issue with Chubb is his ceiling is capped by hunt and usage. He just isn't used as a receiving back in a meaningful way. Even when hunt was out, dernest took a bunch of those snaps. Like yeah, Chubb is probably a low end RB1 or high 2. But he doesn't have the same upside as the guys ahead of him or even some of those going after him (in HPPR or PPR formats). In the second round I'm looking for someone with league winning upside and Chubb just doesn't have that based on what we know about him. Zauper fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Jul 15, 2022 |
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Jul 15, 2022 00:53
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EconDad posted:Owning Chubb last year was a like a lesson in "how much poo poo you can take". I won a chip with him 
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Jul 15, 2022 01:12
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Kind of a fun fact for only me but in all three leagues I was in the person who won it all had Cooper Kupp
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Jul 15, 2022 01:14
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Sataere posted:While Chubb was frustrating, his ADP right now is pretty good value. He still had 228 carries for 1259 yards and 8 TDs, along with a 20/174/1 receiving line. He was the RB11 last year in performance, but people are treating him like he was a letdown because he didn't outperform his draft position. You drafted him in the first round and he was a low end RB1. This year, you can get him in the second and I don't really see anything to indicate he will regress terribly. He seems like he's being really undervalued this year.
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Jul 15, 2022 01:38
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kiimo posted:Kind of a fun fact for only me but in all three leagues I was in the person who won it all had Cooper Kupp Yeah thats how fantasy works. Tomlinson. Moss. Lmaar. CMC. Chase. Kupp. Henry. JT. Mahomes 50td year... Those guys got you to the finals. You likely won.
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Jul 15, 2022 03:24
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I had Mahomes 50 TD and didn't make the finals 
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Jul 15, 2022 03:37
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Spermy Smurf posted:Yeah thats how fantasy works. I went undefeated that year that Jamaal Charles was scoring all those 50-point games.
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Jul 15, 2022 03:51
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Ask me about missing the playoffs with Kupp and Samuel!
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Jul 15, 2022 05:05
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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Pain of Mind posted:Ask me about missing the playoffs with Kupp and Samuel! I saw this in real time and feltbadman. don't forget to mention this was in a 20 team league, which makes it that much more unreal.
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Jul 15, 2022 06:03
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Sataere posted:First off, I kinda love this setup, but I am a math nerd. Before I can figure out this breakdown, I need clarification on a couple of things. 1) Correct. We weave in keepers according to points value and the next pick after assumes the points where they would fill in. Ex: 3 players get bid way high and kept at 225, 201, and 188. They fill the first three pick slots so pick 1.01 then gets assigned a value of 167. 2) Yes 4) Here is who I’m fairly confident will be kept. Players in Bold are returning to the draft pool this year and I’m sure they won’t fall to me at pick 10. QB Herbert, Hurts RB Taylor, Henry, Ekeler, Cook, Fournette, Swift, Javonte, Akers, Gibson, CMC, Mixon, Kamara, Zeke WR Jefferson, Chase, Lamb, Higgins, Moore, Pittman, AJB, Waddle, Kupp, Hill, Allen, Evans TE Kelce, Pitts I’m only considering 3 other owners that will be above my 213 points remaining after Najee and Deebo. There will probably be a good bid war for Josh Allen, Mahomes, Davante, Diggs, Chubb, and Aaron Jones. Realistically I could walk away with one of them and just hope no one puts a bid on Dalton Schultz and I’ll keep him with 1pt. Assuming the rest get bid on and kept by other people, and no one bids on Saquon because his value is already set so high, here’s what my 1.10, 11.01 field MIGHT look like. Saquon, MAndrews, Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Etienne, Diontae Johnson Not pretty. The ultimate question is: do I stay with my main two keepers and then pick two of Dillon/Conner/Rodgers, or do I go all in and secure one of the RFAs.
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Jul 15, 2022 13:57
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Whoreson Welles posted:1) Correct. We weave in keepers according to points value and the next pick after assumes the points where they would fill in. Ex: 3 players get bid way high and kept at 225, 201, and 188. They fill the first three pick slots so pick 1.01 then gets assigned a value of 167. I think in this format, you keep Najee and Deebo, then use your remaining 213 points to lock in the best favorite player you can get. There is no real advantage to keeping a couple of potential upside guys for later because you can draft them later for the same value. Make your team as top heavy as possible and try to maximize those later rounds for future value. EDIT: If I'm looking at this right, you should be able to dump line 10 points into a guy who is being released that nobody really values high, but has sleeper breakout potential. Like, get a stud and an Elijah Moore/Darnell Mooney/Marquise Brown/Gabe Davis for pennies and them get that stud third player. Sataere fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Jul 15, 2022 |
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Jul 15, 2022 17:52
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Sataere posted:I think in this format, you keep Najee and Deebo, then use your remaining 213 points to lock in the best favorite player you can get. There is no real advantage to keeping a couple of potential upside guys for later because you can draft them later for the same value. Make your team as top heavy as possible and try to maximize those later rounds for future value. This is where my thoughts would be as well. I have been in a keeper league for a while, and having star players for some value always ends up working better than having a bunch of depth players, even if there might be a bigger relative ADP round difference for the mid tier players.
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Jul 15, 2022 18:10
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Yeah that’s where I’m leaning. Especially being 10th pick, I’d much rather go into the season having three certified studs and a flyer vs two studs and two mid-tier guys with good ceilings. Of course this all could change in a month if we see Conner emerge as this slippery goal-line RB again but I just love the planning phase.
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Jul 15, 2022 18:52
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