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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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SRQ
Nov 9, 2009

spankmeister posted:

If the war between china and the west is going to be about scaling up war production like WW2 was, my money is going to be on china.

assuming the west doesn't collapse politically and economically immediately, no the west wins.
the simple fact that america has no land borders against enemies it has to defend, and the combined western industrial capacity being able to adjust given enough time to do, means it will win- again.

America could be making an F-22 squadron ever other week, it isn't.
There's more thanks than the Army could ever use sitting in a depot in a desert.
They have practically infinite space and blue sky to train and equip new units.

It'd suck and 500 million people would die, but so long as the west retains the will to fight (not a certainty) it will always win. Unless China somehow invades the west coast and razes everything up to Montana within a year, they will inevitably lose.

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zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1748862329603625089#m
:dukedog:

LRADIKAL
Jun 10, 2001

Fun Shoe

SRQ posted:

assuming the west doesn't collapse politically and economically immediately, no the west wins.
the simple fact that america has no land borders against enemies it has to defend, and the combined western industrial capacity being able to adjust given enough time to do, means it will win- again.

America could be making an F-22 squadron ever other week, it isn't.
There's more thanks than the Army could ever use sitting in a depot in a desert.
They have practically infinite space and blue sky to train and equip new units.

It'd suck and 500 million people would die, but so long as the west retains the will to fight (not a certainty) it will always win. Unless China somehow invades the west coast and razes everything up to Montana within a year, they will inevitably lose.

Also, nooks.

shadow puppet of a
Jan 10, 2007

NO TENGO SCORPIO


zone posted:

Shcheglovsky Val

quote:

The company makes the Pantsir-S and Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun system combat vehicles (and also target locators, multipurpose radars of the system), the Bakhcha and Berezhok turrets, the Kornet-EM anti-tank rocket systems mounted on Tigr vehicles, and battle modules that are part of the ship-based Pantsir-M anti-aircraft missile and gun system. The plant also makes prototype weapons including the unmanned turrets and battle modules Epokha, Kurganets, Bumerang and Armata. In addition, Shcheglovsky Val is developing the capability to maintenance and upgrade combat vehicles.
Fish Bloc Production Capacity: Unharmed.

Prognosis: Inconsequential.

To be fair...
Feb 3, 2006
Film Producer
Does anyone know who the guy on the forearm of the Stalin / Nick 2 bad tattoo owner is?

Ronwayne
Nov 20, 2007

That warm and fuzzy feeling.

SRQ posted:

assuming the west doesn't collapse politically and economically immediately, no the west wins.
the simple fact that america has no land borders against enemies it has to defend, and the combined western industrial capacity being able to adjust given enough time to do, means it will win- again.

America could be making an F-22 squadron ever other week, it isn't.
There's more thanks than the Army could ever use sitting in a depot in a desert.
They have practically infinite space and blue sky to train and equip new units.

It'd suck and 500 million people would die, but so long as the west retains the will to fight (not a certainty) it will always win. Unless China somehow invades the west coast and razes everything up to Montana within a year, they will inevitably lose.

Yeah, the will to fight going is what I'd count on disappearing, especially if they manage to bag a u.s. carrier or two, and depending how deathculty the GOP are at that moment in time. The only reason the Ukraine war is in this stalemate and it looks like Putin might pull of a long term 'win' is all the "eh. meh. whatever" sentiment. That's one of the main ways Putin can show something: Demonstrating once again the west will abandon anyone that sides with it. Happened in afganistan, might happen again in ukraine. For all the talk of russian corruption and inability to put together systems that last, the u.s. spent 20 years creating a government that collapsed as fast as the taliban could drive up unopposed toward kabul.

Blistex posted:

I have a morbid curiosity to see what Trump would do if he was given a free hand. I'd put the odds at 50:50 he'd do something incredibly selfish (pocket it) or incredibly blatant (give it back to Putin).

The ever more morbid curiosity is how his base would spin either option.

Doomerist joke "Comedy" option: Trump just outright bombing ukraine and handing over lists of all known western intelligence agents to putin, mixed with another coup that has AR-15 wielding chuds taking over multiple state capitols unopposed or even aided by local/state law enforcement. "clancy-chat' ain't quite the word for that. "Turner diaries LARP"?

Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Jan 21, 2024

ZeusCannon
Nov 5, 2009

BLAAAAAARGH PLEASE KILL ME BLAAAAAAAARGH
Grimey Drawer
Das a pretty gud price fur eggz

norp
Jan 20, 2004

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

let's invade New Zealand, they have oil

Ronwayne posted:

: Demonstrating once again the west will abandon anyone that sides with it. Happened in afganistan, might happen again in ukraine.

Didn't Russia end up having to completely withdraw from Afghanistan anyway?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Mobilize the egg lines 🎖️🎉

Ronwayne
Nov 20, 2007

That warm and fuzzy feeling.

norp posted:

Didn't Russia end up having to completely withdraw from Afghanistan anyway?

The USSR's failure in the 80s is not nearly as relevant as the U.S. slinking out with its tail between its legs a few years ago in terms of optics of just abandoning locals that allied with them, both in afganistan and other places. Trump went "lol" and let the Kurds get squashed, for example.

Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 05:49 on Jan 21, 2024

Scam Likely
Feb 19, 2021

Easiest way to beat the US is to sow division within its borders by stoking the elements that want to turn it into a disorganized defenseless consortium of STATES RIGHTS corporate fiefdoms.

In other words, boost Republicans.

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr
Dec 22, 2018

I hope this is "battle" enough for you, friend.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Mobilize the egg lines 🎖️🎉

One who can buy eggs, can fight to the death.

TEMPLE GRANDIN OS
Dec 10, 2003

...blyat
blyatmouth eat the eggs

Ronwayne
Nov 20, 2007

That warm and fuzzy feeling.

Scam Likely posted:

Easiest way to beat the US is to sow division within its borders by stoking the elements that want to turn it into a disorganized defenseless consortium of STATES RIGHTS corporate fiefdoms.

In other words, boost Republicans.

I am continually enraged, not surprised but enraged, that we just got to let the GOP continue to wreck stuff on purpose and we get told "oh well, better vote against them!" and that's the only action that's permitted against them, while they get to keep trying again and again and again until their bullshit sticks.

Jonny Nox
Apr 26, 2008




Ronwayne posted:

I am continually enraged, not surprised but enraged, that we just got to let the GOP continue to wreck stuff on purpose and we get told "oh well, better vote against them!" and that's the only action that's permitted against them, while they get to keep trying again and again and again until their bullshit sticks.

you forgot about continually making it harder to effectively vote against them

Waffle House
Oct 27, 2004

You follow the path
fitting into an infinite pattern.

Yours to manipulate, to destroy and rebuild.

Now, in the quantum moment
before the closure
when all become one.

One moment left.
One point of space and time.

I know who you are.

You are Destiny.


Scam Likely posted:

Easiest way to beat the US is to sow division within its borders by stoking the elements that want to turn it into a disorganized defenseless consortium of STATES RIGHTS corporate fiefdoms.

In other words, boost Republicans.

Don't forget to peddle inescapable nihilism to people who consider themselves incredibly smart. I mean like the entire interenet, wherever you can foment it. There's so many loving idle logorrheics out there that they'll just do your loving bidding if you size them up right and scare them just enough.

That way there's just like a constant drag of depression on people who would otherwise take the fifteen seconds to realize oh wait, the people trying to brainfuck me are a joke, I'd better not waste years of my life holding them to highly optimistic, distorted, fantastical versions of something they once pretended to be with rose-tinted lax standards because they painted my current situation as somehow bad from every angle despite theirs being markedly worse in all respects.

That poo poo would get REALLY spicy.

Waffle House fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Jan 21, 2024

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus
More smoking accidents in russia. :sad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq9YdPan_hc

SRQ
Nov 9, 2009

Ronwayne posted:

I am continually enraged, not surprised but enraged, that we just got to let the GOP continue to wreck stuff on purpose and we get told "oh well, better vote against them!" and that's the only action that's permitted against them, while they get to keep trying again and again and again until their bullshit sticks.

The DNC has realized their own grift: If the GOP is one election away from fascism, they can do whatever the gently caress they want- forever- and still get votes.

Waffle House
Oct 27, 2004

You follow the path
fitting into an infinite pattern.

Yours to manipulate, to destroy and rebuild.

Now, in the quantum moment
before the closure
when all become one.

One moment left.
One point of space and time.

I know who you are.

You are Destiny.


norp posted:

Didn't Russia end up having to completely withdraw from Afghanistan anyway?

You know there's really no reason NOT to have a constant Coalition peacekeeping presence in Ukraine, now. It's been two years, the invading sect of the Russian military has given itself no choice but to wear itself out to death.

Samovar
Jun 4, 2011

I'm 😤 not a 🦸🏻‍♂️hero...🧜🏻




But I was under the impression that they were no longer Communist! How could there be a deprivation of goods under capitalism????

Coolguye
Jul 6, 2011

Required by his programming!

WithoutTheFezOn posted:

0.86 USD per dozen is record-breakingly inflated?

remember how little an average russian makes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_Russia

note that the high end is 50k rubles per month.

that's 567 USD. a month.

Ronwayne
Nov 20, 2007

That warm and fuzzy feeling.

SRQ posted:

The DNC has realized their own grift: If the GOP is one election away from fascism, they can do whatever the gently caress they want- forever- and still get votes.

You would've thought Jan 6th would've taught them what would happen if the GOP got a mega-victory but I guess they've decided to play chicken with an electoral fascist victory and/or coup.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1747700684663717890
So this is the great Russian Soul at work. I'll keep what else I have to say to myself because this made me start boiling with rage.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




mobby_6kl posted:

I agree we should be instead bombing Belarus and Russia right now but at least the Czechs aren't blocking EU funding for Ukraine

Everyone aught to be doing things that make loving sense. Bombing me right now IMO makes sense in terms of aiding the Ukranian effort, however how tha gently caress expelling students or punishing dissidents help?

Honestly this is performative as gently caress. Visa ban costs you nothing and even gets you political points among xenophobes but amazingly noone has such fervor against an EU based bank who happily continued doing business in russia. It is so inconvenient, they got lawyers and lobbyists.

So much easier to tell any Belarusian you meet to go gently caress themselves, pat yourself on the back and go shop in Auchan because where else would you buy stuff?

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

WithoutTheFezOn posted:

0.86 USD per dozen is record-breakingly inflated?

Different countries have different prices, yes.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
At least Russia can save some money by reusing American egg price memes from last year instead of inventing new ones.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1748980773649072225#m

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy


Happy birthday to this beautiful PILF

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

regarding that Il-22M that managed to land - pilot was killed, co-pilot wounded, so it's safe to assume that more than a pictured tail section was damaged




Der Kyhe posted:

Slovakia looked at Russia, Belarus and Hungary in 2023 and decided "yes, what we need is a strongman leader with connections to organized crime and who simps for Putin".

Hopefully you enjoy being blacklisted in EU with your pal Hungary.
Fico's current government has a smaller majority in parliament than all his previous governments and after only a few months mass protests have been taking place across the country on a weekly basis, he is also dependent on a party in the coalition that is just a patchwork of various neo-Nazi idiots with a history of abandoning parties. Fico also won the election thanks to votes cast to parties that didn't make it into parliament because the pro-Western opposition can't unite, repeatedly. So we'll see how long he can keep it up, I suppose the current coalition may be more unstable than it seems.

Although on the other hand, many younger and more liberal people have left the country and the remaining voters have been brainwashed for a decade or more with lies and pro-Russian disinformation peddled either by Fico's previous governments, by far-right parties or by the pro-Russian disinformation media that had a free hand under previous Fico governments (and became part of the current government).

Karate Bastard
Jul 31, 2007

Soiled Meat
I've been watching a bit of Denys Davydov. I get the impression that russian meat wave tactics are currently able to gradually push ukrainians back, ever so slightly, and that russian material losses seem to be just 2-3x those of ukraine at the moment. That doesn't look like a tenable situation to me. Am I thinking about this wrong?

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Karate Bastard posted:

I've been watching a bit of Denys Davydov. I get the impression that russian meat wave tactics are currently able to gradually push ukrainians back, ever so slightly, and that russian material losses seem to be just 2-3x those of ukraine at the moment. That doesn't look like a tenable situation to me. Am I thinking about this wrong?

It's not 'tenable' but that's because Russia has committed to an attritional strategy. Currently Russia seems to be able to replace its losses. Ukraine seems to be able to do the same. Russia's current tactics won't cause a breakthrough or a collapse in the frontline or even capture all of the Donbass in the next 5 years, the point is to maintain an intensity of fighting. The price of this sort of tactic is that while Russia can replace its losses, it might be struggling to generate and train up formations that can do anything more complicated than frontal assaults, so there's an element of being locked in.

The calculation is that Russia can keep this up longer than the West has the will and ability to keep resupplying Ukraine. That's it. Either the arms shipments stop and Russia suddenly wins, or Russians stop signing up or being willing to be conscripted and Ukraine wins.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Hard to tell exactly without a clear picutre of what the supply and manpower situation is but but It's obviously not great and not going to end well unless our Western friends get their heads out of their asses sooner rather than later.


Seems like a new smoking accident, just published this early morning


https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-seaport-terminal-on-fire/

E: for example.

quote:

German defense contractor Taurus Systems said on Jan. 20 that it could build up its Taurus cruise missile production very quickly, even if Germany sent some to Ukraine.

The company effectively denied a statement made earlier by Johannes Arlt, an expert at Germany's Social Democratic Party.

He claimed that Germany's defense industry would struggle to replenish its needed stockpiles if it sent the missiles to Ukraine.

The head of the company that makes Taurus missiles, Joachim Knopf, posted on Twitter that it would not be a problem to quickly scale up production of new ones.

...
Bild reported in October that Olaf Scholz is against sending Taurus missiles to Kyiv because he fears the move will draw Germany into the war. Ukraine has received other long-range missiles, such as the Storm Shadow from the U.K. and the French-made SCALP.

https://kyivindependent.com/taurus-systems-germany-can-quickly-replenish-any-cruise-missiles-if-gifted-to-ukraine/

You just need to order some missiles and they'll make them. If you don't order any, they won't. Interesting.

Meanwhile, didn't we have an estimate that russians are making 100 long-range missiles per month or something? What a loving joke.

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 12:08 on Jan 21, 2024

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Coolguye posted:

your last few posts didn't make me likely to read stuff as a joke. sorry if that wasn't as serious as i read it but you were pretty in there.
I didn't think my posting in this particular thread had been that serious, but ok.

The debt I was referring to was the one I had to repay to you, when you won the bet. The joke being, that it would take place after a war with China, resulting in WW3 and inevitable nuclear apocalypse. Like the game Fallout. Have you played any of the fallout games? They're really good (well, most of them). It's a game set in a world where China and US went to war and at some point had a nuclear exchange, annihilating most of society. The games take place 150 to 200 years later when society is recovering and the survivors use pre-war bottle caps as currency, since they're both rare and light and small enough to be conveniently carried.

While I appreciate the effortpost, I recommend playing some of the Fallout games some time instead of posting about economics. New Vegas is my favorite. Fallout 2 is really good too!

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

Alchenar posted:


The calculation is that Russia can keep this up longer than the West has the will and ability to keep resupplying Ukraine. That's it. Either the arms shipments stop and Russia suddenly wins, or Russians stop signing up or being willing to be conscripted and Ukraine wins.

Surely the Russian side of the equation hinges on the willingness of the oligarchs to keep eating financial losses - ordinary people seem completely powerless because the mafia state doesn't actually need them for anything.

Personally I'd say let's attack oligarchs, their associates, and their businesses whatever the country or jurisdiction.

No no that fire wasn't us, also, we do not comment on operational matters :nsa:

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Alchenar posted:

It's not 'tenable' but that's because Russia has committed to an attritional strategy. Currently Russia seems to be able to replace its losses. Ukraine seems to be able to do the same. Russia's current tactics won't cause a breakthrough or a collapse in the frontline or even capture all of the Donbass in the next 5 years, the point is to maintain an intensity of fighting. The price of this sort of tactic is that while Russia can replace its losses, it might be struggling to generate and train up formations that can do anything more complicated than frontal assaults, so there's an element of being locked in.

The calculation is that Russia can keep this up longer than the West has the will and ability to keep resupplying Ukraine. That's it. Either the arms shipments stop and Russia suddenly wins, or Russians stop signing up or being willing to be conscripted and Ukraine wins.

Plus it's a fair bet that Russia just has to hold put until January 2025 when Trump is back in office and sells out Ukraine to Russia in some way.

NoiseAnnoys
May 17, 2010

Dwesa posted:

regarding that Il-22M that managed to land - pilot was killed, co-pilot wounded, so it's safe to assume that more than a pictured tail section was damaged



Fico's current government has a smaller majority in parliament than all his previous governments and after only a few months mass protests have been taking place across the country on a weekly basis, he is also dependent on a party in the coalition that is just a patchwork of various neo-Nazi idiots with a history of abandoning parties. Fico also won the election thanks to votes cast to parties that didn't make it into parliament because the pro-Western opposition can't unite, repeatedly. So we'll see how long he can keep it up, I suppose the current coalition may be more unstable than it seems.

Although on the other hand, many younger and more liberal people have left the country and the remaining voters have been brainwashed for a decade or more with lies and pro-Russian disinformation peddled either by Fico's previous governments, by far-right parties or by the pro-Russian disinformation media that had a free hand under previous Fico governments (and became part of the current government).

i wouldn't be shocked if the coalition splits before the summer. and yeah, slovakia's weird politics are based in large part on the fact that everyone young and educated leaves for the czech republic as soon as possible and doesn't feel invested in it.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

mobby_6kl posted:



Happy birthday to this beautiful PILF

I remember when you got a gold watch instead of some missile that wasn't a twinkle in its designer's eye for such an achievement.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Since it came up earlier, new Perun on the Chinese Military:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhI_tTEE2ZQ

redshirt
Aug 11, 2007

Reporting for shovel mission Sir.
Did Ukraine hit an oil depot in St. Petersburg? I'm having a hard time finding confirmation of this.

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EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

Sekenr posted:

Everyone aught to be doing things that make loving sense. Bombing me right now IMO makes sense in terms of aiding the Ukranian effort, however how tha gently caress expelling students or punishing dissidents help?

Honestly this is performative as gently caress. Visa ban costs you nothing and even gets you political points among xenophobes but amazingly noone has such fervor against an EU based bank who happily continued doing business in russia. It is so inconvenient, they got lawyers and lobbyists.

So much easier to tell any Belarusian you meet to go gently caress themselves, pat yourself on the back and go shop in Auchan because where else would you buy stuff?

Are you asking us to bomb you?

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