Ukraine War: Berth El Buk

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BrassRoots: Jan 9, 2012; You can play a shoestring if you're sincere - John Coltrane

Let me just punch in the coordinates of his balls for the nukes.....aaaaand. bingo. Ready to go.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 14:30

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# ? Apr 27, 2024 12:01

FirstnameLastname: Jul 10, 2022; got me 50 ounces out a bird in this bitch

Alchenar posted:

It's not 'tenable' but that's because Russia has committed to an attritional strategy. Currently Russia seems to be able to replace its losses. Ukraine seems to be able to do the same. Russia's current tactics won't cause a breakthrough or a collapse in the frontline or even capture all of the Donbass in the next 5 years, the point is to maintain an intensity of fighting. The price of this sort of tactic is that while Russia can replace its losses, it might be struggling to generate and train up formations that can do anything more complicated than frontal assaults, so there's an element of being locked in.

The calculation is that Russia can keep this up longer than the West has the will and ability to keep resupplying Ukraine. That's it. Either the arms shipments stop and Russia suddenly wins, or Russians stop signing up or being willing to be conscripted and Ukraine wins.

what's stopping Russia from finding a pace that they can maintain that allows them to grow their stock in shells for scheduled offensives every spring as long as they maintain the current 3500-6500 Ukranian vs 20,000-65,000 Russian 155mm artillery shells being fired daily

nothing is moving more earth than these in Ukraine and in trench warfare since its beginnings the front actually can -only- be advanced through concentration of firepower, it's 85-90% of combat deaths in WWI, WWII, korea, vietnam, it's just how industrial warfare works once stuff really develops and is what ends up killing most of the people who don't return from where that happens, because you are literally doing long distance earth moving to push the other side off the map until they all give up or all die

i don't see how Ukraine isn't at the point where they need to choose one of those two and are otherwise only stalling as from what I can tell they mathematically do not and are just not expected to have the firepower needed to effect any more meaningful change past where the front is developed, leaving no open path to victory

i have never heard of a country giving up in an attrition war they were projected to win by means of literally physics and geometry and topography and demographics allowing them to be pretty certain to maintain their advantage in firepower until the last member of the ukranian armed forces surrenders or at least flees or is inevitably gibbed by the slow rolling thunder of death that is modern industrial ground warfare

trench warfare is long distance earth moving and by every meaningful metric Russia can move more earth, faster, than ukraine can, from more big guns and with more munitions. russia also has more people. not one of these things are even in the most optimistic of predictions expected to change meaningfully in the future

at this scale and development there is no maneuver at the front it is dug-in and in depth on both sides, no surprises will occur on a map. nothing will move anything in either direction except sheer volume of fire.
you need much more than parity in firepower for offensive operations in trench warfare. i see nothing predicting ukraine to have parity or even half or even a solid guaranteed tenth given the numbers i see available.

nothing else matters but the volume of dirt you can move how much how fast from hot far away that's how all the other stuff happens, according to every historical reference i can find going back to Napoleon artillery fire is what kills 90% of people who die in attrition warfare, and static attrition warfare becomes trench warfare, which this is.
the side with a consistently lower concentration of fire has never won under these circumstances

i do not see how Ukraine isn't just letting soldiers die at this point. Russia is able to dictate the pace entirely from what i can tell, through their advantage in firepower down field, and could probably push a lot harder if they felt "hurried"

at what point does this become an unrealistic hope that Ukraine doesn't objectively lose this, because upon learning the numbers to how this kind of war has always gone down historically, it is very clear: you can weigh the explosives being delivered per square meter and predict how far the front will advance and in what direction. you can do this to historical outcomes. you will not find one instance of trench war where team less-guns started to push back team more-guns. the only times it has occurred in this war was before the front stabilized and defense in depth was not established, now that it is Ukraine physically cannot push through in any one area fast enough to reinforce their gains, this is why they haven't

i do not see a way that this war is not objectively over for Ukraine unless a deus ex machina ghost army pops out of the ground or godzilla or something, russia can sit and wait until the last person who wants to win or die fighting Russia, dies or changes their mind and i honestly think that is what they intend to do at this point. hoping that Ukraine wins once Russia implodes or drops its guns seems just disconnected from reality altogether when they've had an advantage in artillery fire since the end of 2022 back before the front developed there's no space for it to occur again

once the front is established with trench warfare there is not really any maneuver that will surprise or make anything but the raw numbers have an influence: everything else, without exception gets ground to dirt and dust, and wherever places most of the people in this war die (or hopefully, have already) will be utterly destroyed and unhabitable for the rest of our lives the same way major combat sites along the western front still

hoping Russia's citizens stop signing up for a war their country is currently winning in order for Ukraine to beat them seems like a bad prospect, wishing for that to occur instead of peace, hoping for Ukranians to die until they surrender, at this point, to me at least is basically wishing for a blood sacrifice, as this war cannot be won by Ukraine according to every historical reference of warfare and how those references interface with the fundamental laws of physics and thermodynamics and nature writ large, all of which apply with equal veracity regardless of one's position on any component of this conflict

# ? Jan 21, 2024 14:35

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

The "deus ex machina" you refer to is Rheinmetall and Lima tank plant or whatever getting a few dumptrucks of money to make more boom-boom. You boil everything down to number of tubes and shells and then assume it's somehow a law of physics that russia has to have more. It's not, it's entirely a decision in the US and EU's hands.

New Anders Nielsen video on more or less this topic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-iEDS_oge4

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Jan 21, 2024

# ? Jan 21, 2024 14:43

Der Kyhe: Jun 25, 2008

FirstnameLastname posted:

what's stopping Russia from finding a pace that they can maintain that allows them to grow their stock in shells for scheduled offensives every spring as long as they maintain the current 3500-6500 Ukranian vs 20,000-65,000 Russian 155mm artillery shells being fired daily

nothing is moving more earth than these in Ukraine and in trench warfare since its beginnings the front actually can -only- be advanced through concentration of firepower, it's 85-90% of combat deaths in WWI, WWII, korea, vietnam, it's just how industrial warfare works once stuff really develops and is what ends up killing most of the people who don't return from where that happens, because you are literally doing long distance earth moving to push the other side off the map until they all give up or all die

i don't see how Ukraine isn't at the point where they need to choose one of those two and are otherwise only stalling as from what I can tell they mathematically do not and are just not expected to have the firepower needed to effect any more meaningful change past where the front is developed, leaving no open path to victory

i have never heard of a country giving up in an attrition war they were projected to win by means of literally physics and geometry and topography and demographics allowing them to be pretty certain to maintain their advantage in firepower until the last member of the ukranian armed forces surrenders or at least flees or is inevitably gibbed by the slow rolling thunder of death that is modern industrial ground warfare

trench warfare is long distance earth moving and by every meaningful metric Russia can move more earth, faster, than ukraine can, from more big guns and with more munitions. russia also has more people. not one of these things are even in the most optimistic of predictions expected to change meaningfully in the future

at this scale and development there is no maneuver at the front it is dug-in and in depth on both sides, no surprises will occur on a map. nothing will move anything in either direction except sheer volume of fire.
you need much more than parity in firepower for offensive operations in trench warfare. i see nothing predicting ukraine to have parity or even half or even a solid guaranteed tenth given the numbers i see available.

nothing else matters but the volume of dirt you can move how much how fast from hot far away that's how all the other stuff happens, according to every historical reference i can find going back to Napoleon artillery fire is what kills 90% of people who die in attrition warfare, and static attrition warfare becomes trench warfare, which this is.
the side with a consistently lower concentration of fire has never won under these circumstances

i do not see how Ukraine isn't just letting soldiers die at this point. Russia is able to dictate the pace entirely from what i can tell, through their advantage in firepower down field, and could probably push a lot harder if they felt "hurried"

at what point does this become an unrealistic hope that Ukraine doesn't objectively lose this, because upon learning the numbers to how this kind of war has always gone down historically, it is very clear: you can weigh the explosives being delivered per square meter and predict how far the front will advance and in what direction. you can do this to historical outcomes. you will not find one instance of trench war where team less-guns started to push back team more-guns. the only times it has occurred in this war was before the front stabilized and defense in depth was not established, now that it is Ukraine physically cannot push through in any one area fast enough to reinforce their gains, this is why they haven't

i do not see a way that this war is not objectively over for Ukraine unless a deus ex machina ghost army pops out of the ground or godzilla or something, russia can sit and wait until the last person who wants to win or die fighting Russia, dies or changes their mind and i honestly think that is what they intend to do at this point. hoping that Ukraine wins once Russia implodes or drops its guns seems just disconnected from reality altogether when they've had an advantage in artillery fire since the end of 2022 back before the front developed there's no space for it to occur again

once the front is established with trench warfare there is not really any maneuver that will surprise or make anything but the raw numbers have an influence: everything else, without exception gets ground to dirt and dust, and wherever places most of the people in this war die (or hopefully, have already) will be utterly destroyed and unhabitable for the rest of our lives the same way major combat sites along the western front still

hoping Russia's citizens stop signing up for a war their country is currently winning in order for Ukraine to beat them seems like a bad prospect, wishing for that to occur instead of peace, hoping for Ukranians to die until they surrender, at this point, to me at least is basically wishing for a blood sacrifice, as this war cannot be won by Ukraine according to every historical reference of warfare and how those references interface with the fundamental laws of physics and thermodynamics and nature writ large, all of which apply with equal veracity regardless of one's position on any component of this conflict

That is a long form format analysis coming to a thread favorite conclusion of "Russia has bigger GDP and more men, so Ukraine should just skip to surrendering and submit to their fate".

# ? Jan 21, 2024 14:54

stab: Feb 12, 2003; To you from failing hands we throw the torch, be yours to hold it high

TEMPLE GRANDIN OS posted:

blyatmouth eat the eggs

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:00

Strategic Tea: Sep 1, 2012

Wars are won when the will to fight breaks IMO, never historically when all the soldiers on one side are dead or the earth of the front line has been churned X km back from where it started

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:02

beer_war: Mar 10, 2005

I ain't reading all that until you use your shift key.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:03

redshirt: Aug 11, 2007; Reporting for shovel mission Sir.

From a purely American perspective, I am PISSED that the House Republicans, with their 4 vote numerical majority (or whatever it is now - 3? 2?), can gently caress up one of America's easiest and greatest victories over a long time adversary. By supporting Ukraine 100%, America can defeat Russia by proxy with almost no risk to American lives. Only money and material. It's like a gift wrapped opportunity to decimate an enemy. And yet the purported "Strong on Defense, Real Patriot" Republicans side with Russia. It's sickening, and sad.

There's also so many future implications from what happens here for Europe and the rest of the world. And it's at risk because of a dozen or so Republican nutjobs and traitors.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:08

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

The trick is not that Russia doesn't have an all-of-country ability to win an attritional war. The trick is whether Russia can win an attritional war without needing to start seriously tapping the area around St Petersburg and Moscow, which is a different risk calculus.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:24

3D Megadoodoo: Nov 25, 2010

Strategic Tea posted:

Wars are won when the will to fight breaks IMO, never historically when all the soldiers on one side are dead or the earth of the front line has been churned X km back from where it started

Wars are also won when one side simply runs out of materiel. And that's not my opinion, just a fact.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:31

McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

3D Megadoodoo posted:

Wars are also won when one side simply runs out of materiel. And that's not my opinion, just a fact.

Wars are won when one side posts the longest insane screed about it on a dead, gay comedy forum. This is why Russia has already won.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:50

Set: Oct 30, 2005

Der Kyhe posted:

That is a long form format analysis coming to a thread favorite conclusion of "Russia has bigger GDP and more men, so Ukraine should just skip to surrendering and submit to their fate".

Yeah, pretty much. It does propose a lot of things working out a lot better for Russia, than it seems to be doing in reality. While the situation is bad, it isn't that hopeless yet.

Also if there is one thing we have learned over the last year, is also the fact that the amount of artillery tubes or fire doesn't matter as much as actually hitting your target. Both Russian artillery and logistics keep getting destroyed by more accurate and better informed Ukrainian artillery. Not to speak of how much more effective artillery is when supporting infantry and armor, when it actually hits the enemy.

As mobby said, as long as the west keeps supplying weapons and ammo the Ukrainian defences have a really good shot at holding.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:51

Jasper Tin Neck: Nov 14, 2008; "Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

mobby_6kl posted:

The "deus ex machina" you refer to is Rheinmetall and Lima tank plant or whatever getting a few dumptrucsk of money to make more boom-boom. You boil everything down to number of tubes and shells and then assume it's somehow a law of physics that russia has to have more. It's not, it's entirely a decision in the US and EU's hands.

New Anders Nielsen video on more or less this topic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-iEDS_oge4

That and local permissions to build. Take for example the Diehl plant that was supposed to be expanded to increase production of missiles for IRIS-T systems. It's now being blocked by the town authorities. In a town that sprang up around explosives factories.

German Wikipedia via Google translate posted:

The city's real boom began with industrialization in the 19th century. In 1825, the former head of the mining authority in Bonn, Windgassen, founded an iron smelter on Mühlengraben near the Agger-Sieg estuary. Emil Langen took over this in 1843 and called the settlement Friedrich-Wilhelms-Hütte, which in turn was taken over by Mannstaedt-Werke in 1913.

The location on the railway line on the right bank of the Rhine, on the Sieg route and on the freight train route to Speldorf made Troisdorf interesting for industrial companies in the second half of the 19th century. In 1887, the Rheinisch-Westfälische Sprengstoff-AG (RWS) under its general director Emil Müller put the Troisdorf detonator factory into operation for the production of percussion caps and detonators, which later became a location for Dynamit Nobel AG.

NIMBYs are currently the gravest threat to western democracy.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 15:58

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

My extremely sophisticated galaxy brain analysis of the situation is that Russia currently doesn't have a plan to fight for years in Ukraine. They are waiting for the US elections and how Europe will react and until then they are just trying to appear as strong and as determined as possible. Showing absolutely no signs of weakness or losing steam.

If the US falls and the EU can't manage to compensate(lol, good luck with that), then Ukraine can be bludgeoned into capitulation. Their war material production is miniscule and their biggest advantages are western high tech weapons like HIMARS. Without outside help, Russia can grind their way to Kyiv like they did before the arrival of HIMARS(or however far they need to go until the government capitulates out of hopelessness).

I think once the US results are in, the Kreml will start deciding on a long term plan on how to continue with all of this. Until then here is no hope of anything changing. If Biden wins the US elections, the Kreml might finally go for the off-ramp out of this poo poo show.

It's really insane how Europe is potentially about to experience the biggest humanitarian catastrophe since WW2, ethnic cleansing, mass murder and several more millions of displaced refugees and the main plan to prevent it is just to hope that Trump can't wriggle his way out of the 10th rape or corruption trial. We will absolutely not be ready to take up the slack in support. The US courts are literally the only plan we have to prevent the catastrophe.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 16:01

beer_war: Mar 10, 2005

Well yes, but can you imagine how owned the libs will be?

# ? Jan 21, 2024 16:05

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Lol, I bet they will be fuming :twisted:

# ? Jan 21, 2024 16:11

Waffle House: Oct 27, 2004; You follow the path
fitting into an infinite pattern.

Yours to manipulate, to destroy and rebuild.

Now, in the quantum moment
before the closure
when all become one.

One moment left.
One point of space and time.

I know who you are.

You are Destiny.

GABA ghoul posted:

My extremely sophisticated galaxy brain analysis of the situation is that Russia currently doesn't have a plan to fight for years in Ukraine. They are waiting for the US elections and how Europe will react and until then they are just trying to appear as strong and as determined as possible. Showing absolutely no signs of weakness or losing steam.

If the US falls and the EU can't manage to compensate(lol, good luck with that), then Ukraine can be bludgeoned into capitulation. Their war material production is miniscule and their biggest advantages are western high tech weapons like HIMARS. Without outside help, Russia can grind their way to Kyiv like they did before the arrival of HIMARS(or however far they need to go until the government capitulates out of hopelessness).

I think once the US results are in, the Kreml will start deciding on a long term plan on how to continue with all of this. Until then here is no hope of anything changing. If Biden wins the US elections, the Kreml might finally go for the off-ramp out of this poo poo show.

It's really insane how Europe is potentially about to experience the biggest humanitarian catastrophe since WW2, ethnic cleansing, mass murder and several more millions of displaced refugees and the main plan to prevent it is just to hope that Trump can't wriggle his way out of the 10th rape or corruption trial. We will absolutely not be ready to take up the slack in support. The US courts are literally the only plan we have to prevent the catastrophe.

Sad that I agree with the full of this, but it's indeed obvious Russia's combative force is running in a very dishonorable and reactionary mode of function.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 16:23

Karate Bastard: Jul 31, 2007; Soiled Meat

"Win" is a complex word. Ukraine wins by kicking russia out. EU and US win by russia fighting in ukraine and grinding itself back into mud huts instead of causing trouble elsewhere. POSIWID: The purpose of a system is what it does, so what does this system do? Supplying just enough to keep the grind going might be the goal here, and words and morality be damned. Whatever, the ukrainians can have some more wunderwaffe, but let the russians swallow down just a little more bait first. Yes?

# ? Jan 21, 2024 19:54

Crab Dad: Dec 28, 2002; behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB

Karate Bastard posted:

"Win" is a complex word. Ukraine wins by kicking russia out. EU and US win by russia fighting in ukraine and grinding itself back into mud huts instead of causing trouble elsewhere. POSIWID: The purpose of a system is what it does, so what does this system do? Supplying just enough to keep the grind going might be the goal here, and words and morality be damned. Whatever, the ukrainians can have some more wunderwaffe, but let the russians swallow down just a little more bait first. Yes?

NATO's best interest to just invade Ukraine and take it over in a war of conquest. Since it's non-aligned Russia shouldnt care. Then immediately turn it into a West Ukraine to give the common people a respite from war (and a chance to rebuild their tank factories).

Worked in WW2 eh?

# ? Jan 21, 2024 20:02

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

I seriously doubt this is some kind of grand "bleed russia out" strategy on the part of EU or US, and not just disfunction, cowardice, and infiltration by right-wing russian fanboys

# ? Jan 21, 2024 20:05

Karate Bastard: Jul 31, 2007; Soiled Meat

It can just be the balanced outcome of enough dysfunctional self serving shitheels. If russia upped the heat I bet supply would raise to meet

# ? Jan 21, 2024 20:07

tiaz: Jul 1, 2004; PICK UP THAT PRESENT.

Zelensky's Zealots

FirstnameLastname posted:

i do not see how Ukraine isn't just letting soldiers die at this point. Russia is able to dictate the pace entirely from what i can tell, through their advantage in firepower down field, and could probably push a lot harder if they felt "hurried"

at what point does this become an unrealistic hope that Ukraine doesn't objectively lose this, because upon learning the numbers to how this kind of war has always gone down historically, it is very clear: you can weigh the explosives being delivered per square meter and predict how far the front will advance and in what direction. you can do this to historical outcomes. you will not find one instance of trench war where team less-guns started to push back team more-guns. the only times it has occurred in this war was before the front stabilized and defense in depth was not established, now that it is Ukraine physically cannot push through in any one area fast enough to reinforce their gains, this is why they haven't

These two things especially are not true at all, even if you find people confidently asserting them.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 20:11

Coolguye: Jul 6, 2011; Required by his programming!

Karate Bastard posted:

It can just be the balanced outcome of enough dysfunctional self serving shitheels. If russia upped the heat I bet supply would raise to meet

i'm not sure how much heat they've got left with protests starting to kick up and the consumer market breathing hard.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 20:38

Crab Dad: Dec 28, 2002; behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB

High Explosives is one thing but how is Russia's tube production doing? Have to be easier to make than tanks but I haven't seen a lot about new production

# ? Jan 21, 2024 20:40

bob dobbs is dead: Oct 8, 2017; I love peeps; Nap Ghost

Coolguye posted:

i'm not sure how much heat they've got left with protests starting to kick up and the consumer market breathing hard.

you can colorably guarantee that a state will collapse at 10-40% of peeps dead or run away. below that figure, there are still collapses sometimes but no guarantees. russia is at 1%. this is how fuckin durable states are

# ? Jan 21, 2024 20:44

Waffle House: Oct 27, 2004; You follow the path
fitting into an infinite pattern.

Yours to manipulate, to destroy and rebuild.

Now, in the quantum moment
before the closure
when all become one.

One moment left.
One point of space and time.

I know who you are.

You are Destiny.

mobby_6kl posted:

I seriously doubt this is some kind of grand "bleed russia out" strategy on the part of EU or US, and not just disfunction, cowardice, and infiltration by right-wing russian fanboys

"Sir, would you mind ceasing the falling on your own sword thing? It's really awkward to be the police that your next door neighbor calls every time you decide to go kick their doors down."

# ? Jan 21, 2024 20:56

Ronwayne: Nov 20, 2007; That warm and fuzzy feeling.

Yeah, its probably a lot more "What's the absolute minimum we can spend here to make the problem go away? Then let's spend a bit less than that." Its poisonous austerity thinking rather than cold-war bull baiting, imo.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 21:02

zone: Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1749032417824748009#m

quote:

Russian soldiers from unit 12267 within the 2nd batallion of the 26th motorized rifle brigade operating in Krynky are dissatisfied.

"During our deployment of 7 months, there was not a single day off, not a single rotation. We have been under constant artillery fire from all calibers, with the use of cassette ammunition and phosphorus bombs. Many of our brothers left Krynky wounded or dead. Also many wounded died to long evacuation times. We do not give up our positions, but the moral fatigue grows every day. Our command does not conduct rotation and does not allow us a well-deserved vacation. We don't have winter clothing, food and gasoline are brought in minimal volumes. We are not provided with bottled water and there are a lot of questions about our payments. None of us got paid for fighting in December, for example. We ask the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu to take measures against the lawlessness and injustice on our part of the front. And do not ignore the outrageous violations of the rights of the servicemen."

# ? Jan 21, 2024 21:13

Waffle House: Oct 27, 2004; You follow the path
fitting into an infinite pattern.

Yours to manipulate, to destroy and rebuild.

Now, in the quantum moment
before the closure
when all become one.

One moment left.
One point of space and time.

I know who you are.

You are Destiny.

I keep thinking Ukraine is hopeless, then I remember that the Ukranians are fighting people who have been left for dead.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 21:22

Coolguye: Jul 6, 2011; Required by his programming!

bob dobbs is dead posted:

you can colorably guarantee that a state will collapse at 10-40% of peeps dead or run away. below that figure, there are still collapses sometimes but no guarantees. russia is at 1%. this is how fuckin durable states are

if you'd said this to me a month ago i would've just nodded and agreed, but frankly i didn't expect demonstrations against the war to start since, yeah, russia is at 1%.

we've had, what, like 4-ish reports of demonstrations against the war and its effects in core demesne russia in the last week or so? russia might be at substantially more than 1% 'run away' at this point if you consider a 'hell no, we won't go' attitude as 'run away'.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 21:31

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr: Dec 22, 2018; I hope this is "battle" enough for you, friend.

Karate Bastard posted:

"Win" is a complex word. Ukraine wins by kicking russia out. EU and US win by russia fighting in ukraine and grinding itself back into mud huts instead of causing trouble elsewhere. POSIWID: The purpose of a system is what it does, so what does this system do? Supplying just enough to keep the grind going might be the goal here, and words and morality be damned. Whatever, the ukrainians can have some more wunderwaffe, but let the russians swallow down just a little more bait first. Yes?

Russia wins by forming the Soviet Union

# ? Jan 21, 2024 21:40

Strategic Tea: Sep 1, 2012

Russia can also win by getting gopnik culture to 80% in all neighboring states, or by launching a mars mission (can piggyback w/ elon)

# ? Jan 21, 2024 22:03

Karate Bastard: Jul 31, 2007; Soiled Meat

The kremlin is actually a set of interconnected rockets. they are going to mars

# ? Jan 21, 2024 22:14

Dwesa: Jul 19, 2016

Strategic Tea posted:

Russia can also win by getting gopnik culture to 80% in all neighboring states, or by launching a mars mission (can piggyback w/ elon)

we'd sooner have fusion power than a Russian probe landing on Mars

# ? Jan 21, 2024 22:25

DiomedesGodshill: Feb 21, 2009

Dwesa posted:

we'd sooner have fusion power than a Russian probe landing on Mars

Crashing on is technically landing.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 22:35

Jasper Tin Neck: Nov 14, 2008; "Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Karate Bastard posted:

"Win" is a complex word. Ukraine wins by kicking russia out. EU and US win by russia fighting in ukraine and grinding itself back into mud huts instead of causing trouble elsewhere. POSIWID: The purpose of a system is what it does, so what does this system do? Supplying just enough to keep the grind going might be the goal here, and words and morality be damned. Whatever, the ukrainians can have some more wunderwaffe, but let the russians swallow down just a little more bait first. Yes?

Hanlon's razor, my dude, Hanlon's razor.

What's that, you ask?

quote:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

What's more likely: 31 states' leaders are conspiring together to keep drip feeding Ukraine to slowly bleed Russia or 31 states' leaders are bickering amongst themselves about who should pay for weapons while getting caught up in bureaucracy of their own making?

# ? Jan 21, 2024 22:40

War Wizard: Jan 4, 2007

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

Hanlon's razor, my dude, Hanlon's razor.

What's that, you ask?

It's been getting stretched. I feel like it's a "Fool me once.." razor, where we can attribute stupidity the first time, then malice each additional time.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 22:48

Haystack: Jan 23, 2005

Also, it's not like it's a huge mystery as to why US funding is drying up. Republicans figured out they could use it as part of their usual obstruction games, so appropriations dried up. Zero grand strategy involved.

# ? Jan 21, 2024 22:53

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Haystack posted:

Also, it's not like it's a huge mystery as to why US funding is drying up. Republicans figured out they could use it as part of their usual obstruction games, so appropriations dried up. Zero grand strategy involved.

The grand strategy is removing elections in the US. Putin taking Ukraine over gives Republicans a 'hey look authoritarianism gets poo poo done!!!'

# ? Jan 21, 2024 22:58

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Apr 27, 2024 12:01

Blistex: Oct 30, 2003; Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

Coolguye posted:

if you'd said this to me a month ago i would've just nodded and agreed, but frankly i didn't expect demonstrations against the war to start since, yeah, russia is at 1%.

we've had, what, like 4-ish reports of demonstrations against the war and its effects in core demesne russia in the last week or so? russia might be at substantially more than 1% 'run away' at this point if you consider a 'hell no, we won't go' attitude as 'run away'.

The thing to remember is that it's 1% overall, but in the regions they have been pulling from, whole villages are missing their young men. If Russia thinks that they can sustain 2%, they're going to have to start pulling from areas like St. Petersburg and Moscow.

# ? Jan 22, 2024 00:13

The Something Awful Forums > Main > General Bullshit > Ukraine War: Berth El Buk

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