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James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Fister Roboto posted:

Feel free to offer any reason that people shouldn't think that our politicians have failed to address this issue for literally decades.

I'm not sure there's ever been a majority in the house and senate at the same time supporting something that would count as "addressing the issue". Obviously that doesn't let the pro gun politicians off the hook, but if you had said "pro gun politicians are doing nothing about school shootings" I don't think anyone would object.

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James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
The positions on police demographics don't conflict, it's two separate questions. If you're deciding between more police or fewer police you should probably choose fewer police. If you're deciding how white and male the police force should be you should probably choose the least white and male option. Nobody is choosing between "expand the police force specifically by hiring more officers of color" and "downsize the police force".

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

BiggerBoat posted:

I think the slavish devotion from the Christian right is the one that gets me the most. THe thrice divorced adulterer who bangs porn stars is god's chosen hero for america.

I mean the evangelicals preferred Ted Cruz in 2016 and look like they're Desantis' main supporters, Trump isn't enough of a social conservative freak.

TheDisreputableDog posted:

Do you guys think it’s possible that poor white people in flyover, industrial burnout areas have legitimately been victimized in the last 50 years?

"poor white people in flyover, industrial burnout areas" aren't the core of the Republican party. Marjorie Taylor Greene is a millionaire.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

bird food bathtub posted:

They can cheat enough to keep winning with the naked and mauled corpse of civic society we have now. When they start losing with their cheating in place they'll simply take power with as small a fig leaf as necessary to keep the "opposition" complacent, using as much violence as necessary.

They tried that with an incumbent Republican commander in chief in 2020 and it didn't work. Is your thesis that it will be easier for Republicans to do a violent coup when the military is taking orders from a Democratic president?

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

The drop in early voting for Madison & Milwaukee and the corresponding spike from WOW vs the 2023 primary seems really bad!

The two Democratic candidates combined for 54% in the primary

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1643442166214033409

I guess we're doing this every time now

edit: "we can have the rule of law or the rule of Janet, and the people of Wisconsin have chosen the rule of Janet" :laffo:

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

CuddleCryptid posted:

I can't really say that I am too surprised that democrats are breaking to kill trans rights. A lot of otherwise blue voters are deeply uncomfortable with the idea of trans people, because they're stupid cowards giving lip service to equality.

But to actually break from your party to do that when otherwise acting in step with them, that's some bizarre calculus outside of, as was said above, an outright bribe as they walk out the door.

I mean it's really not the voters that are doing the whole trans panic thing, it's Republican party elites trying to find a culture war issue less radioactive than the pro-life movement and getting an assist from NYT columnists for some reason (maybe because they all went to the same private schools, I think that's the issue with terf island?)

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Keyser_Soze posted:

"competent fascist" in this scenario is cold, calculated and efficient not loud, inefficient and farty like Dumb Donnie

The thing is the loud inefficient farting is part of Trump's appeal. The Claremont Institute nazis want someone calculated and efficient but a substantial number of Republican voters want the guy who yells slurs loudest and don't really care about policy (obviously there are policy implications to picking the guy who yells slurs loudest, but it's secondary).

Gumball Gumption posted:

The flip side of that is he mostly lost due to being president during a once in a lifetime event. No pandemic and the election is wildly different.

I suspect covid helped Trump. Other countries mostly reelected their leaders and the government transferred a huge amount of money to average people.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Zwabu posted:

I'm not sure I undrstand what you are saying here. Are you saying that Trump would have lost even worse than he did in the election if not for covid?

Pretty much. I think the kind of person who blames Trump for covid (e.g. me) was always going to vote for Democrats anyway. Republican states weren't getting hit as hard by covid (it changed in the winter 2020-21 wave), a lot of people were better off because CARES was really good, and the kind of person who would have voted Democratic because Democrats controlling the house was why CARES was good wasn't a swing voter either.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Gyges posted:

Ben Koppleman is just out here trying to pass some laws that, of his own admission, raise his salary and fix the outrageous situation where lawmakers don't get the state to pay for their lunch. I think we can all sympathize with him, since few of use would take some crap job that wouldn't even pay for our lunches. That's just standard, and we really shouldn't be asking our politicians to accept anything less. If those lazy kids would get a job, and put some skin in the game, they'd get lunch reimbursed just like everyone else.

North Dakota doesn't pay its state legislators a living wage. I mean 10 dollars of meal per diem isn't going to change that and they should have voted for free school lunches, but states underpaying their lawmakers is a real problem. It isn't coincidental that they're full of business owners.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
I mean whether or not the administration plans to take mifepristone off the market, there's no reason to put out a press release saying "the FDA will not comply with the order" when it's not in effect and they expect a higher court to issue a stay.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Mizaq posted:

Wait a minute, where do you think Califnoria’s farms are located at? What aspect of farming in the southwest is not effective? Where is a more effective area for farming produce in the United States?

Not talking about nuts either.

The Central Valley doesn't use Colorado River water. It's alfalfa farming in the Imperial Valley.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
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Not only is desalination expensive, the water crisis is farmers getting artificially cheap water to grow low value crops like alfalfa. If you put in a desalination plant and residential users start using that, there's just more subsidized water for desert alfalfa. It's less that there isn't enough water and more that the law gives farmers a natural right to use all the water.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Sir Lemming posted:

It's confusing to me as well. This is anecdotal, but I'm trying to think of any Republican voters I've met in my entire life -- and I've met a lot -- who would refuse to vote for a candidate because of their support for any and all bans on abortion... and I really can't think of any, from the full Trumpers to the embarrassed ones. Like, at most I can imagine them being a bit concerned at the overreach but not enough to change their vote.

It seems to me like the concern is not for actual Republican voters, but a theoretical group that emerges in polls and makes abortion bans look statistically less popular than other Republican policies.

It's not theoretical, last year Republicans had a pretty big turnout advantage but underperformed because Democrats did unusually well with Trump voters.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Main Paineframe posted:

Low-calorie high-mass foods are important to many diets, because eating lots of calories is fairly easy in modern society - the hard part is stopping at a given calorie level. When people are controlling their diets, the calorie goal is generally more of a calorie limit. High-calorie low-mass foods don't physically fill your stomach, and are therefore easier to overeat. Now, nutrition and weight gain are complicated and there's much that we don't necessarily know for sure, but there's definitely more to food production than just maximizing calories.

And like I said, almonds and wheat flour use twice as much water per kcal as corn, and six times as much water per kcal as broccoli. By this one measure alone, they're not ultra efficient.

I mean there's no need to ration California's water to convert it into food energy as efficiently as possible. There isn't a food shortage and California isn't mostly growing staple crops. The problem is just that farmers are getting artificially cheap water and using it all. If they had to pay non subsidized prices for the water it would probably affect alfalfa the most since hay is less valuable than almonds.

The problem isn't really specific crops though, it's farmers getting senior water rights.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

InsertPotPun posted:

it does seem odd that destroying lives takes a stroke of a pen but making lives better requires 7 months of study, compromise, 6 months of legal battles, compromise, seventeen emergency stays, compromise, 3 shootings, compromise...

Republicans say almost exactly the same thing about Obamacare. Some things are just harder than other things.

And there are plenty of states passing legislation to protect trans rights, there's just no twitter clout in it. Here's the same account tweeting that Michigan made gender identity a protected class with a tenth as much engagement.

https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1631107879284494336

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Cimber posted:

Except he actually _didn't_ do anything he promised. What was his signature achievements in his term of office? The tax cut?

Border wall? Nope
Repealing Obamacare? Nope
Withdrawing from NATO? Nope
Cutting dependence on China? Nope
Reducing illegal immigration? Nope.

The only thing he got done when they had the trifecta was the tax cut which only really helped the rich class. Everyone else got a marginal tax cut that sunsets while the corp tax cut is forever. OK, he got a shitload of judges in too, but that wasn't really him, that was the federalist society giving him a list of 'good judges' and him scrawling his signature on it with a McDonald's crayon.

He got Roe overturned, it was the conservative movement's signature issue for decades. It has supermajority disapproval but we're talking about Republicans here.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
Nobody dislikes Trump because he served the Clemson football team McDonald's hamberders on the White House china, people talk about those kind of things because they're funny. There's a type of commentator (often twitter personalities and national newspaper columnists) that says The Libs made jokes about that because they're coastal elites who don't know Real America, but they're College Republicans who attended 18 years of private school and would combust if they talked to an adult who didn't graduate college. If a Republican voter remembers the hamberders it's because they thought it was funny.

The Libs disliked Trump in 2016 because he was a racist who wanted to end democracy and overturn Roe v. Wade and they dislike him now because he's a racist who tried to end democracy and overturned Roe v. Wade.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
"liberals will rehabilitate Bush" is just imaginary. I am not sure I have heard someone who would self describe as a liberal bring up George W Bush even once since Trump was elected, except in the context of "was Trump or Bush worse" (I don't think that question has a clear answer)

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
You need a majority vote in the house to impeach Clarence Thomas

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
I'm not sure pre Dobbs polls that did not poll the actual policy outcome ("should 11 year old rape victims be forced to give birth?") are worth much, especially when we have actual voting results. In Montana (Trump+16, evenly split on abortion in pre Dobbs polls) a ballot initiative to mandate treatment for infants that survive an attempted abortion failed by 5 points. In Kansas (Trump+15, anti-abortion in pre Dobbs polls) an initiative to say the constitution does not guarantee a right to abortion failed by 18 points. In Kentucky (Trump+26, anti-abortion in pre Dobbs polls) a similar initiative failed by 5.


An obvious issue is that people may answer "is it wrong to abort baby Einstein" and "should an 11 year old rape victim be forced to give birth" differently, and only the latter question is policy relevant.

James Garfield fucked around with this message at 05:28 on Apr 20, 2023

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

Equally irrelevant are single issue polls because even if a large portion of chuds think it's bad to force 12 year old rape victims to give birth, they will still crawl over broken glass to vote for leaders who will enact laws that require just that. The huge discrepancy between chud party affiliation and ballot issue results is just further proof that fascists don't actually care about abortion as a real life issue, it's just one of the many invented grievances they pretend to care about to mask their actual goal of inflicting pain and suffering on innocent people they hate.

It's unclear how much of it was specifically because of abortion, but in last year's election Republicans had a large turnout advantage and performed disappointingly because of Trump voters voting for Democrats. Republican voters have a lot of bad opinions and most of them still voted for Republicans last year, but they aren't groypers who spend 18 hours a day on Twitter like Ron Desantis' staffers.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

CuddleCryptid posted:

What gets me is that if the situation was that a poor student got passed over for their one chance at a scholarship that would let them go to college and they were taking it out on "but but but bone density" then they'd still be a bigot but at least I would be able to understand where their head was for that one thing. But no, every single time this comes up it's some upper middle class school full of preppy white girls who have no stake in the game other than "wants to be good at playing sports".

I think that is less about white women being inherently transphobic (edit: I don't mean that's what you said) and more that almost all of the people who care about kicking 8th graders off the volleyball team enough to give an interview on it (and also have connections to get the interview in a major news outlet, state legislature, etc) are right wing activists.

James Garfield fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Apr 20, 2023

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

WarpedLichen posted:

Everybody talks about all the baby Einsteins but what about all the baby Hitlers.

Ben Carson wouldn't abort baby Hitler.

Neither would Ben Shapiro.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Queering Wheel posted:

Oh my god the clip is great :lol:

https://twitter.com/Riley_Gaines_/status/1648892612709953537?s=20

loving owned

Maybe stop complaining because you suck at volleyball you loving loser

Riley Gaines tied for 5th place with Lia Thomas and still gets to tell right wing media her championship was STOLEN because Ron Desantis proclaimed a completely different athlete (Emma Weyant, who seems not to be involved in the anti trans movement) the real champion.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
The argument for nominating someone other than Trump is that Trump is unelectable because of 1/6, but it's hard to make that argument when Trump was president before and half your voters think he won in 2020 and 1/6 was either antifa or good.

Some Andrew Tate type of guy could win the groypers (half of whom are policy advisors for Ron Desantis anyway) but much of Trump's appeal is being Donald Trump.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
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haveblue posted:

It seems premature to write off the young just a few months after an election in which record young turnout made for some very unexpected swings

Youth turnout (and turnout in general) gets talked about way out of proportion to how much it matters, Democratic turnout wasn't as bad as in 2014 but the main reason 2022 went unexpectedly well is Trump voters voting for Democrats.

The good news is the things that worked to get Trump voters to vote for Democrats (Republicans want to end voting and force 10 year old rape victims to give birth) are also good for turnout so there's no need to choose between them.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

zoux posted:

I don't agree with this, according to the sources I've seen, you saw specifically moderate republicans balking at crazy anti-democracy candidates and draconian abortion restrictions. You had "normal" republicans outrunning nutjobs by several points. As far as Trump voters go, I'd say they were more likely to not vote than vote for Biden, but that's kind of their deal, they only vote when Trump is on the ballot.

'22 was really a great argument for voter persuasion and candidate quality, turnout was something like R+3. As far as the youth vote goes, if you're ever like "Well, as long as under 25s turn out we'll..." I wouldn't put money on it.

I mean Democrats can't win in an electorate that voted for Trump unless some Trump voters vote for them. It's probably not the ones who were in the boat parades.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
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Bernie kept running his other two campaigns past the point where he wasn't a viable candidate but he's shown no sign of being the kind of blatant grifter that would run against Biden. He also isn't an antivaxxer, which seems like a prerequisite based on who has announced.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Ghost Leviathan posted:

IIRC the only declared Democrat primary challenger is RFK Jr, the Qanon weirdo.

The other antivaxxer primary challenger is Marianne Williamson.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1651364975728885768

Looks like Desanctimonious is still planning to run

quote:

“Trump is fighting Democrats, DeSantis is fighting a Mouse,” said a member of the Florida GOP’s state executive committee who supports DeSantis running for president. “Members of Congress and voters are choosing the fight they think is more important.”

I'm not sure how this is a point in his favor

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Ghost Leviathan posted:

This is already happening, and has been for a long time. And the people going 'Vote Blue No Matter Who' have not been making impressive contributions to it.

You might recall that a few years ago Americans voted the fascists out of office, they attempted to seize power via a mob that faced zero opposition from leftist street fighters, and it was completely unsuccessful.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Fister Roboto posted:

So yeah, kind of weird to blame it on leftists not wanting to put their lives on the line for a bunch of politicians.

Obviously it's not the leftists' fault for not fighting the mob in the street, they collectively made the right decision not to oppose it. It would have been much worse if there had been leftist street fighters present (and at least some of the organizers were clearly trying to make that happen). But the leftist street fighters weren't an important part of stopping it, since it was stopped without their help and it would have been worse if they had been there.


Ghost Leviathan posted:

I'd love to hear who the ones who saved democracy on that day were? The cops who opened the gates for them?

I'm not sure it's useful to identify who personally saved democracy, but I don't think it's controversial to say that the coup attempt failed or that leftist street fighters were not why it failed (except that they indirectly hindered it by not showing up to fight it).

edit:

Professor Beetus posted:

That said, I'm not sure where leftist street fighters would have come into play. They typically put themselves on the line for women at abortion clinics, transfolk, and other marginalized groups involved in protests. They don't work security for congress.

It wouldn't be the first time that Proud Boys marched somewhere and then incited violence when counterprotesters showed up e.g.
Searching for "proud boys clash" will find plenty of incidents.

James Garfield fucked around with this message at 04:57 on Apr 29, 2023

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Fister Roboto posted:

Why should they be though? This is like saying that dentists weren't an important part of stopping a forest fire.

Right, they aren't. Leftists fighting Proud Boys in the street are largely irrelevant to whether or not the Proud Boys achieve their goals (except "fight leftists in the street", obviously).

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Gumball Gumption posted:

Yeah, from what I'm gathering it's leftist street fighters fault that the Democrats couldn't stop all 9 judges from signing a piece of paper that said "no oversight thank you".

You're misreading. It isn't useful to talk about whose fault it is, but it is extremely obvious that the leftist street fighters could not stop all 9 judges from signing that piece of paper either (and if they tried the results would be worse than what actually happened).

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Fister Roboto posted:

Other than WW2, when have capitalists ever allied with communists for anything? You're going to need to provide some evidence for that claim. Meanwhile, I can point to the entire Cold War and all of the little proxy wars that were part of it as examples of capitalists propping up fascist regimes to crush the communists. Salvador Allende would also like a word with you.

It would help if you would define what it means for capitalists to ally with communists before asking for examples, but the main US partner in Syria is an anarchist movement.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
Cruz is a bad candidate, Allred has a decent record in house elections, and Texas is almost certainly going to be closer than Ohio at the presidential level. It's not a top tier competitive seat like Arizona or Montana and Cruz will probably win anyway but it's not like donating millions to Amy McGrath, it makes sense to invest in Texas even if it doesn't immediately lead to a win.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
Make the 14th amendment argument and then mint the coin (with George Soros on it) anyway

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Zamujasa posted:

my unfounded guess is that rents went up because people wanted more money and, what are you gonna do, go homeless?

most people would likely cut their spending everywhere else to make rent first.

what I'd like to see wrt housing prices is how much of the housing supply was bought up by and currently owned by corporations and banks, and vacancy rates.

The rental and homeowner vacancy rates are at or near historic lows, rents are going up because there isn't enough housing in places people want to live and landowners have been pretty successful at organizing against new construction.

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James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Beast Pussy posted:

Also, remember when someone broke into Nancy Pelosi's house and hospitalized her husband with a hammer? Who do you think slept better that night, Republican or Democratic congresspeople? People would be a lot less likely to be the face of hateful legislation, or the interpretation thereof, if they thought they might wake up to the claw side of a hammer.

Did Steve Scalise get any more moderate after a guy shot him? Do you think he would have moderated even more if the shooter had announced that he was shooting Steve Scalise to punish him for being a Republican?

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