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LtCol J. Krusinski
May 7, 2013

Dandywalken posted:

A series of motorbike couriers ferried the message at speeds that were by all accounts impossible to achieve

I got this reference, and thoroughly enjoyed it.

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Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA
I imagine that the US and others could have seen this force build-up even without it being intentionally telegraphed, but Iran's immediate declaration of the strike's conclusion definitely suggests they deconflicted the strike with the US behind the scenes.

Lovely Joe Stalin
Jun 12, 2007

Our Lovely Wang
That and the publicity campaign to get people ready for the idea it was coming, days before it did. And the subsequent western "actually it's fine they couldn't hurt you anyway... but seriously, just shut up" signalling to Israel afterwards.

Unconfirmed as far as I know, but at least one source (of questionable repute) is saying they hit the swimming pool of the airfield commander. If that's true that's a hilarious human touch in a piece of deadly serious theatre.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

hellotoothpaste posted:

Just a heads up, what happened wasn’t “telegraphed” so much as is was extremely backchanneled. There were a lot more parties involved to sort of box the whole thing in, versus it all turning into another regional actualwar.

Edit: Caveat, may not be boxed in at all regardless.

Sure, yes. I meant telegraphed in a broad manner meaning that Iran *wanted* everyone to know when the attack was coming so it would be prepared for.

I do hope it was enough. They didn't kill anyone. Israel seems a bit on the fence about a response.

Lovely Joe Stalin
Jun 12, 2007

Our Lovely Wang
Israel's a fascist rogue state that has always answered every problem with escalatory violence, and whose governments rely on their ability to do so with impunity for populist support. They absolutely want to retaliate, but it seems that the majority of the intercepts were done by their western patrons, and those patrons are for the first time in a very long time firmly saying "if you do this you do it alone." Meanwhile the country that just showed it can reach out and touch them directly is saying that it will do the same, but with less restraint if there is further provocation.

Those things combined presumably are causing the hesitation, but I'm confident Israel with overcome that and do the stupidest thing possible and then cry victim. Again.

PurpleXVI
Oct 30, 2011

Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

and those patrons are for the first time in a very long time firmly saying "if you do this you do it alone."

Consider me supremely doubtful that they're actually going to let Israel suffer any consequences for their actions, and I'm pretty sure Israel knows it.

Lovely Joe Stalin
Jun 12, 2007

Our Lovely Wang
Oh I think we'd be dumb enough to take part in trying to mitigate a more serious repetition of the Iranian retaliation. But it seems to have been made pretty emphatically clear that if Israel wants to attack Iran to provoke that further response, they can provoke it alone.

not a value-add
Jan 17, 2019

Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

Oh I think we'd be dumb enough to take part in trying to mitigate a more serious repetition of the Iranian retaliation. But it seems to have been made pretty emphatically clear that if Israel wants to attack Iran to provoke that further response, they can provoke it alone.

This isn’t enough to deter Israel. I’m almost positive they think the US would go “Aw shucks!” and proceed to fight Iran for them anyway down to the last American. Israel only really responds to threats (when it’s not having a violent meltdown instead).

not a value-add fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Apr 16, 2024

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Be prepared
Fun Shoe

Dandywalken posted:

A series of motorbike couriers ferried the message at speeds that were by all accounts impossible to achieve

Is this a reference to that one wargame where that general did that to bypass blue force SIGINT?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

from public and “leaked” statements it sounds like the US would not join Israel on an attack against Iran, but would likely assist in defending Israel against a counterattack (“iron clad” and all that)

such defensive assistance is obviously a big help to Israel in attacking Iran, but I suspect that Biden can manage to ignore that and hold the contradictory positions long enough for the Palestinians to be wiped out

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Subjunctive posted:

from public and “leaked” statements it sounds like the US would not join Israel on an attack against Iran, but would likely assist in defending Israel against a counterattack (“iron clad” and all that)

such defensive assistance is obviously a big help to Israel in attacking Iran, but I suspect that Biden can manage to ignore that and hold the contradictory positions long enough for the Palestinians to be wiped out

Yeah it's this poo poo that worries me. There are numerous people in the Israeli government that would be willing to take the risk against Iran for the cover it would give them to expel Palestinians. I'm sure the US is saying behind the scenes to absolutely not do this, but the arrangement of carrots and sticks doesn't inspire confidence in me.

Dance Officer
May 4, 2017

It would be awesome if we could dance!
Israel has no hope of accomplishing any military action against Iran other than dropping bombs and shooting missiles, ditto for Iran. There have been Israeli attacks on Iran before, without any consequences for Israel, and I don't see why they would start now. Most dislike Iran.

not a value-add
Jan 17, 2019

Israel flying through Iraq to bomb Iran seems like it would be politically unworkable within Iraq. You’d see an immediate escalation of the militia attacks on coalition forces that just stopped. You couldn’t make it 48 hours into that thing without the situation in the region rapidly deteriorating, and that’s assuming no other big players get involved. Russia got involved in Syria. I’d bet you they’d get involved here.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

not a value-add posted:

Israel flying through Iraq to bomb Iran seems like it would be politically unworkable within Iraq. You’d see an immediate escalation of the militia attacks on coalition forces that just stopped. You couldn’t make it 48 hours into that thing without the situation in the region rapidly deteriorating, and that’s assuming no other big players get involved. Russia got involved in Syria. I’d bet you they’d get involved here.

Israel doesn't necessarily care about US forces in Iraq. And no, Russia would not get involved in Iraq. Russia and Syria had decades of military cooperation between them. Iraq doesn't have that relationship.

not a value-add
Jan 17, 2019

Exactly. Israel might not care about the OIR collation, but Iran does, especially if those forces thwart Iranian counterattacks. And Russia wouldn’t get involved in Iraq, but they might try to defend Iran. What exactly that would look like I’m not sure, but I doubt they would just sit around and let all this happen.

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

I'd like to imagine a world in which US forces would try to intercept the strikes going in both directions, but I know it's not the one we're living in now.

PurpleXVI
Oct 30, 2011

Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

not a value-add posted:

Exactly. Israel might not care about the OIR collation, but Iran does, especially if those forces thwart Iranian counterattacks. And Russia wouldn’t get involved in Iraq, but they might try to defend Iran. What exactly that would look like I’m not sure, but I doubt they would just sit around and let all this happen.

I remember some recent reporting that Russia was transferring Su-35's and AA missiles to Iran, I imagine that's the shape the assistance would take, rather than actively having pilots and units present.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

PurpleXVI posted:

I remember some recent reporting that Russia was transferring Su-35's and AA missiles to Iran, I imagine that's the shape the assistance would take, rather than actively having pilots and units present.

Indeed. Russia has more than enough on its hands already. The US getting pulled into a Middle East quagmire might alleviate pressure on the Ukrainian front.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Heartache is powerful, but democracy is *subtle*.
Haven't seen this posted yet. The Navy confirmed the extra-atmospheric interception was with an SM-3.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-used-weapon-combat-first-destroy-iranian-missiles-2024-4

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

It's the thought that counts, I guess?
https://news.usni.org/2024/04/17/navy-transport-with-equipment-personnel-for-gaza-pier-back-home-after-engine-fire

quote:

A Navy ship on its way to Gaza with parts for the temporary pier returned home after experiencing a fire, the Navy said Wednesday.

USNS 2nd Lt. John P. Bobo (T-AK-3008) experienced a fire in its engine room on Thursday, April 11, while it was on its way to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea with equipment and personnel for the humanitarian efforts planned via a temporary pier in Gaza, a Navy spokesperson said in a statement to USNI News.

The crew extinguished the fire, and no injuries were reported. The ship returned to Jacksonville, Fla., on Wednesday for an assessment. The fire is under investigation, according to the statement.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

The Suffering of the Succotash.
I thought the pier was floating there on Army boats?

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Someone else reported that the parts are being moved to another boat to make the trip instead.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

A.o.D. posted:

I thought the pier was floating there on Army boats?


For the Gaza port, the Army's 7th Transportation Brigade will send 2 LSVs and 3 LCUs, which will take 30 days to get there, with a MARAD LMSR to do all the really heavy lifting.

A lot of this is really dumb since they've been trying to get rid of their vessels and this capability, and the expeditionary support docks are laid up due to phase down with that initiative.


The Bobo is the LMSR carrying the important poo poo. The LSVs and LCUs aren't really made to move a lot of poo poo thousands of miles and need a mother vessel to operate from.

The LMSRs are much faster than the LSVs anyways so the delay shouldn't be that bad.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 14:58 on Apr 18, 2024

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?
EFB

testifeye
Sep 24, 2004

maroon moon
.

testifeye fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Apr 19, 2024

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Some evidence that Israel struck an S-300 in Iran.

https://x.com/csbiggers/status/1781436224248435107?s=46&t=fppHBZSlD4AbSz5pJxjFMQ

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Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Would be :psyduck: if that Blue Sparrow-based thing was the culprit

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