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Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

America would dearly like the hospital carpark bombing to be attributed to Hamas so I am not sure why the CIA would be considered for one millisecond as an authoritive source for this. It's not like the CIA et al are not known for routinely making up and spreading facts to support US interests. I mean, they are so bald faced as to say that they can't show the evidence that they say (trust me bro) that seals it.

In Kahneman's terms, it is a great example of a locating "truth" that will impact future thinking even though the locating truth is known to be biased and incorrect by the observer.

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Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Potato Salad posted:

I don't know if it's been mentioned yet, but if we're keeping tragedies onto the pile of human misery, climate change is making the region practicably inhospitable

One way to look at the eruption of the Syrian Civil War is a streak of horrible famine that put Syrian farmers functionally out of business and locked out of capital market. I don't have the link on hand, but in one publication Department of Defense labels climate changes that worsen existing regional instabilities as "Unrest Aggravation Factors" and I'm really, really not looking forward to what the medium term future has to hold for us.

You can draw a line/band across the Sahel and through the middle east of land that used to be arable but is now considered suitable for subsistence farming only. That line moves a bit further South each year. I don't think it is a coincidence that that line also pretty neatly lines up with increased extremism, conflict and unrest. The desertification and reduced arability is a direct consequence of climate change and for me is the first real genuine population level impact of climate change - increased conflict and war.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

I'm very sympathetic to the Palestinian cause but I wish BUUNNI would knock it off with blaming Zionism and instead correctly blame the Israel state and its enablers. I understand the anger about what is happening but I am also completely comfortable that a state apparatus of any religious (or non-religious) persuasion, given the free hand that Israel has, would act in a similar way.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

I noticed in my tik tok feed, a surge of comments evoking the holocaust; however tenuously linked, to something otherwise unrelated to the OP tik tok.

A tik tok about workers rights being impinged in Ghana (I'm in West Africa).
A comment reads; "Yeah, this really sucks, at least it was not like how Jews were forced to work as slaves during WWII"

Maybe it is just because of current events that it has people thinking more about the past but I would not be surprised if it is part of industrialized social media public perception shaping campaign. I would further not be surprised if the old "get to 'em young, the younger the better*, also shock tactics are awesome", was not also front and center in the minds of people and decision makers.

*which had to be outlawed specifically in countries like Australia due to how much advertisers love to target kids for all manner of things, anyone else remember FAGS lollies?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

I think it is a bit like Russia in Ukraine, all hopped up on stories from generations ago (WWII for Russia, Six Day War for Israel), planning to win the next fight the same way the last one was won (disregarding that others can learn and adapt), bit of dismissive otherism, over-hyped hero-worship of our own soldiers, plenty of disconnection between those making the decisions and those suffering the consequences.


Complacency is a hell of a drug.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

I generally avoid videos of this stuff, but there's a gore-free body cam video where a Hamas man climbs out of a prepared (reinforced walls) pit disguised under a bush in relatively open scrub ground. He runs maybe ten yards, places (not throws) some sort of charge on the engine deck of a Merkava under the turret, and then runs away back to his foxhole. Apparently without being seen or fired upon. All the while talking/yelling in, as you'd expect, a degree of excitement. There is at least one other armoured vehicle in the video but no sign of infantry.
As the charge goes off the last thing you see in the smoke is him and another guy prepping their RPGs.

I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it myself. He shouldn't have gotten anywhere near the tank, let alone made it back. I assume the infantry are buttoned up in their carriers and to hell with sane armour doctrine.

And reportedly, that footage keeps getting deleted off the combat footage reddit so it is not a popular video with some at least to have out in the wild. I wonder if it is because people don't like to see IDF challenges or because it is Hamas fighting the IDF out in the scrub and not with three babies strapped to their RPG.

Also notice "cope cages" on the Israel tanks and APCs. The were roundly derided when the Russians used them going into Ukraine so interesting to see them make a re-appearance in Gaza.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Makes sense from the quad-copter, the Russians certainly knew about the technique from previous fighting and the subsequent removal from their tanks is that the Javlin and arty became so overwhelming a threat that easy escape was more important than defending against quad copters.

I seen a comment that the Trophy system precludes having soldiers standing so close to the tanks and it's possible that the Hammas soldier was obscured by dust and hopes to make his escape before the protective infantry can respond.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Al-Saqr posted:

sharing this since you guys are military heads

Qassam put out an informational video about their hand-placed anti-tank weapon, why they use it and it's specifications, along with a demonstration. along with footage of several merkavas being knocked out by it.

https://x.com/TurkiShalhoub/status/1720466927519244734?s=20


it's made to be placed right next to the merkavas munitions magazine.

they gave some statistics, it weighs 3 kilograms, 50 CM tall 105 mm wide, it was made in Gaza, and they say it can penetrate 60 cm of hard steel armor.

so it's not a weapon of desperation its on purpose to be placed by hand.

and if they wanted to be especially cheeky, they could say that because they attack the ammo magazine (with its ammo explosion blow off panels), that they are minimising human casualties - the crew should survive.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

You're quite right, the last one looks like a proper, entire tank brew up. I didn't expect that at all.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Israel was probably just as surprised as the people at the hospital that there would be secondary explosions.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Wrennic_26 posted:

Source?

There are plenty of Israeli citizens back and forth to the U.S., or with family in the U.S. -- not so much with China. With the U.S. a major security guarantor for Israel this would be a significant risk for not much benefit.

You would have to go digging but there was a time there would be story after story of US tech making its way to China soon after first being shared with Israel. Bit of a hidden subsidy to Israeli companies as the US companies that developed the tech were not allowed to sell to China directly.

As to why Israel would do such a thing that could risk its relationship with the US, well they rightfully assessed it as not being much of a risk to their relationship. The US started to crack down on this but in the vein of "do not do this again" not "do not do this and here are punitive actions to prevent this sort of behavior going forward".

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Israeli intelligence was for decades a bunch of thugs practicing wet work on old Germans and then applying those lessons on real or perceived enemies of Israel in a way that would make Russia blush. The legendary reputation mostly comes from actively not being investigated by western organizations and in fact being supported in their covering up, not that they could fool those orgs.

People mistake not being held to account via the US nodding along to plausible deniability as Israel intelligence being some sort of top tier level organization free from complacency and hubris. This is not to say they don't have committed or competent people, just that their achievements are in line with a smallish nation doing things on a budget.

The best intelligence that Israel has, is access to the awesome US C3I network and three letter orgs analysis.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

PurpleXVI posted:


Meanwhile, in actual news contributing to the thread?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...ths-to-win-war/

Something vaguely approaching "hey, please stop the war crimes or else!" from the US to Israel.

I wonder just how much the gentle pushback from the US recently is about plausible deniability later when the genocide is complete, history starts telling the reasons for the genocide and US sympathetic historians will be compelled to point out how the US really tried to limit the extent of what was about to happen or their knowledge of what was happening.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Cancel culture is not about coitizing the government of Israel. In this instance it is anything cancelling anything that prevents the victims of the holocaust from avoiding genocide (ie, anything that is not the express desire of the Israel democratically elected government).

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

vuk83 posted:

Yes and yes.

No war was declared between recognized sovereign states. The accepted term; I think, for those gunned down is "enemy combatant" (which in US parlance, actually means "unlawful combatant" but not protected in the same way unlawful combatants are provided for under the Geneva convention).

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

mlmp08 posted:

If the IDF wants to use that parlance, it still doesn’t really work because it’s a raid on occupied land that Israel claims ownership of, since Israel does not recognize or treat Palestinian territory as independent.

So then it’s the Israeli military dressing up as doctors and civilians to go do extrajudicial killings inside a hospital on land Israel occupies?

That’s the point I made when I posted the bbc news story a couple pages back.

I agree with your interpretation, my point is that the interpretation by the powers that be (essentially the US, nothing is happening in the ICC etc without US ok or at least acquiesce) of what happened will be done in a way as to whitewash IDF activities as "legitimate, practically legal even if not pedantically legal".

Pretty much what Orange Juche says.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Also, eventually Israel would begin policing and controlling the Palestinian refuge camp on Egyptian soil making it de-facto part of Israel.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

RFC2324 posted:

"violently infiltrated" sure is a phrase

Yeah, does it mean they cut a fence, that they shot at someone on their way in, drove a vehicle at speed, wondered in while wearing a balaclava? Normally I can read between the lines on euphuisms but this one I have no idea.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Even if they don't need another ingress point, it makes things easier (ships are cheaper than trucks, especially if what you are bringing in is from overseas anyway) and more importantly, it is another enclave that will not be turned over to Palestine even if Israel withdrawals. Like Kaliningrad.

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Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I watched it on Al Jazeera and I was again wondering what consequences Israel could possibly impose

US is probably saying to Norway something along the lines of "Nice wealth fund you got there, shame if bad luck seemed to follow it around".

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