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Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

It's not. In fact, almost any action seeking to bring an end to the genocide in Gaza or make Israel weaker is a probably a net positive by any reasonable accounting. Given 100% of the civilian causalities so far have been civilians in Yemen and Gaza, the focus on the Houthis is strange. The only civilians killed by Houthi forces are Yemenis on the other side of the civil war, and that I would agree is entirely unrelated to the Israel thing as much as anything can be in the middle east.

The war was escalated by the IDF killing thousands of children in my opinion far more than the Houthis shooting at merchant ships. If anything, firing on material and imposing economic restrictions to end hostilities and genocide seems like an attempt at deescalation.

Hmmm, well you're not posting it directly to CSPAM this time. Is there an offsite discord?

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Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

psydude posted:

Ok but how is attacking civilian shipping from uninvolved countries furthering these objectives.

The UK is not an uninvolved country

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Heartache is powerful, but democracy is *subtle*.

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

The UK is not an uninvolved country

The ship is owned by a company in the Marshall Islands. Even if the beneficial owner is in the UK, this is like blowing up the Amazon Prime delivery contractor's leased van because you have a beef with Enterprise. LightPole and a few others have written extensively in various threads about how little of an effect this has on the ship owner, just due to the way the global maritime industry is run.

The only people that will really feel an effect from it, aside from anyone who lives around the Red Sea, are the companies just had their fertilizer orders cancelled.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

psydude posted:

The ship is owned by a company in the Marshall Islands. Even if the beneficial owner is in the UK, this is like blowing up the Amazon Prime delivery contractor's leased van because you have a beef with Enterprise. LightPole and a few others have written extensively in various threads about how little of an effect this has on the ship owner, just due to the way the global maritime industry is run.

So what would you say the Houthis should do in their campaign, given what weapons they have available because they, unlike say Israel who just this week has killed or wounded thousands of starving people with weapons we supplied them, that could possibly have an effect on Israel?

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
It's good that there is an environmental catastrophe brewing in the Red Sea. As it kills all the sea life and further aggravates the food security of the region, we will all be reminded of the Houthis, and how they brought Israel to heel by shooting at civilian ships.

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


Cugel the Clever posted:

I'm not sure why you think your question is some kind of gotcha.

Pointing out that a conflict ongoing for almost 15 years that youíre criticizing and trying to frame based on events of only a few months isnít a exactly a gotcha, sorry.

I honestly donít give a poo poo about either side in the Yemeni civil war but to only link it to Israel-Palestine seems needlessly reductive and ignores a much longer running conflict.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

Grip it and rip it posted:

It's good that there is an environmental catastrophe brewing in the Red Sea. As it kills all the sea life and further aggravates the food security of the region, we will all be reminded of the Houthis, and how they brought Israel to heel by shooting at civilian ships.

Food security in the region would probably most quickly be fixed by bombing the IDF, rather than (continuing) to bomb and blockade the Houthis

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Food security in the region would probably most quickly be fixed by bombing the IDF, rather than (continuing) to bomb and blockade the Houthis

Yeah and if bullfrogs had wings they wouldn't bump their asses when they hop. The options available to everyone are constrained by other real world realities. Just wanting it to be different won't make it so.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Heartache is powerful, but democracy is *subtle*.

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

So what would you say the Houthis should do in their campaign, given what weapons they have available because they, unlike say Israel who just this week has killed or wounded thousands of starving people with weapons we supplied them, that could possibly have an effect on Israel?

As That Works just pointed out, the Yemeni Civil War has very little to do directly with Israel/Palestine. Militarily speaking, given that they don't even control the entirety of Yemen, their weapons would be better employed trying to take over the rest of the country from the UN-recognized government.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





so you're just gonna ignore my question

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Food security in the region would probably most quickly be fixed by bombing the IDF, rather than (continuing) to bomb and blockade the Houthis

Starting a regional war with a trigger-happy nuclear power will not improve food security in the Middle East and you have to be insane to think so regardless of your opinion on Gaza.

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

so you're just gonna ignore my question

Israel is doing bad things, which means he doesn't have to answer you.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

psydude posted:

As That Works just pointed out, the Yemeni Civil War has very little to do directly with Israel/Palestine. Militarily speaking, given that they don't even control the entirety of Yemen, their weapons would be better employed trying to take over the rest of the country from the UN-recognized government.

It certainty would, which is why "cynical" is a strange characterization of their choice to take on the US, UK, Israel and a whole bunch of other countries to demand the end of the IDF's actions in Gaza.


Grip it and rip it posted:

Yeah and if bullfrogs had wings they wouldn't bump their asses when they hop. The options available to everyone are constrained by other real world realities. Just wanting it to be different won't make it so.

It is... odd to talk about Houthis being a significant threat to food security specifically given the events of this week.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Israel is doing bad things, which means he doesn't have to answer you.

i hate exemptions :(

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

It is... odd to talk about Houthis being a significant threat to food security specifically given the events of this week.

Well sinking a merchantman full of fertilizer is not going to help anyone's food security no matter what their stated motive.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Maybe the leaking ships will kill all life in the Red Sea and save the Mediterranean from the Lessepsian migration.

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

That Works posted:

Pointing out that a conflict ongoing for almost 15 years that youíre criticizing and trying to frame based on events of only a few months isnít a exactly a gotcha, sorry.

I honestly donít give a poo poo about either side in the Yemeni civil war but to only link it to Israel-Palestine seems needlessly reductive and ignores a much longer running conflict.
I think you're reading into my posts an argument that isn't there :shrug:

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
I'm going to start dumping my car's spent oil into the storm drain for world peace. You're welcome.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
Just a reminder to please be nice to each others.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Grip it and rip it posted:

I'm going to start dumping my car's spent oil into the storm drain for world peace. You're welcome.

you fool







you should have claimed it was to calm the waves

Fivemarks
Feb 21, 2015
Isn't the world of international shipping insanely hosed up and full of shell corps and flagging ships out of countries they aren't owned by in the name of being cheap?

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Fivemarks posted:

Isn't the world of international shipping insanely hosed up and full of shell corps and flagging ships out of countries they aren't owned by in the name of being cheap?

yes


you could quite literally write a thesis on it and i suspect many have

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011



There's a fairly beefy Wikipedia article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience

The whole concept is pretty wild.

Fivemarks
Feb 21, 2015

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

yes


you could quite literally write a thesis on it and i suspect many have


Okay, okay, so in that case hear me out: I don't think "This ship was flagged in (random third world country), that means it isn't a legitimate target in a war even if its owned through shell corps and shady dealings by a country supporting your enemy in the war" is legitimate- it doesn't matter where the ship is flagged, what matters is the ultimate actual owner and the owner of the goods on board, as well as where the goods are being shipped to.

So if the Houthis were downing ships connected to, say, their Gulf Arab Enemies (the Saudis and the UAE) or their backers (The US and the UK, for instance), then that'd be perfectly legitimate, right?

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





my eyes and brain hurt trying to read that sentence so i honestly cannot answer it




which to be fair is probably part of the point of why ships are done that way (it's mostly $$$ but obscuring is part of the game too)

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Hopefully Russia takes a cue from the Houthis and starts nuking all global trade hubs.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Fivemarks posted:

Okay, okay, so in that case hear me out: I don't think "This ship was flagged in (random third world country), that means it isn't a legitimate target in a war even if its owned through shell corps and shady dealings by a country supporting your enemy in the war" is legitimate- it doesn't matter where the ship is flagged, what matters is the ultimate actual owner and the owner of the goods on board, as well as where the goods are being shipped to.

So if the Houthis were downing ships connected to, say, their Gulf Arab Enemies (the Saudis and the UAE) or their backers (The US and the UK, for instance), then that'd be perfectly legitimate, right?

Let me throw another spanner in there:

The nationality of the crew has no correlation with the nationality of the corporate entity that owns the ship, the person that pockets the money, or the flag of the ship. The guys getting shot at are from nations not involved in any of those conflicts. (Well, some of them might be Chinese.)

The guys in the office collect the insurance, write off the residual loss and move on. poo poo some of them donít even know the name of the ship.

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

you could quite literally write a thesis on it and i suspect many have

Itís too broad a subject for a thesis.

FrozenVent fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Mar 4, 2024

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





I'd also like to add that if it's a container ship - and almost all non-liquid non-vehicle cargo is containerised - you don't so much have a ship full of treats as you do whatever containers happen to be in port going to a particular destination at a particular time

if this all sounds confusing, that's why global logistics is an entire discipline unto itself

gets even more confusing when it comes to part-container loads!

Comrade Blyatlov fucked around with this message at 01:31 on Mar 4, 2024

the JJ
Mar 31, 2011
Man. I wonder what possible precedent the Yemeni people might have for interdiction shipping as a bargaining chip in international affairs. I wonder where they got the idea that blanket restrictions of civilian goods moving by sea as a means of putting economic pressure on political/military leaders was somehow 'legitimate' as a realpolitik tactic.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_Yemen

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_Cuba

Or heck, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_Dues if you really want to stretch.

Sarcasm aside, the Houthis are dealing with an asymmetry problem most equivalent to the Germans in WWI. The Brits absolutely violated the poo poo out of international law to starve out the Germans, but they were able to do it 'politely' by merely pointing the guns of their surface ships at neutral shipping and impounding them. The Germans tried this until they started getting lit up by Q boats and hunted by the Royal Navy. Plus they didn't have a safe port to direct interdicted ships to, so they had to turn to unrestricted submarine warfare. Since I've got Dune on the mind I'll badly paraphrase and misquote here: 'the power to destroy the absolute control over it.' It's a sort of economic Sampson option. Would the Fremen way of life end and their struggle come to naught if Paul killed the sand worms? Yes. Would that also gently caress over the Guild and the Imperial house? Also yes! So let's talk things out.

Yes, we can bomb the poo poo out of the Houthis, but they're betting descion makers in the West (political or business) care more about a marginal uptick in insurance and/or shipping costs than they care about being bombed. Or, they can force the US to bomb them, which means planes/bombs/ships/missiles not being pass to the Ukrainians, or Israelis, or deterring China, or fattening up your favorite subcontractors.

Why would the US care? 1. Maintaining secure and stable shipping lanes is a big Thing we can point to and say 'hey, our hegemony and the international order gives you this, wouldn't you rather be with us and not Putin/China/Iran'. Its also what we 'get' out of spending a crap ton on our navy. Having this threatened is both a bad look for the US re: convincing the world to play along, even when we do dipshit things like elect Trump and a bad look for US defense folks. Meanwhile, every military ship pulled to police the Red Sea is a ship not somewhere else doing something else. Even if the US is able to stomp out Houthi launch sites and such, it costs us somewhere else but the US absolutely can't *not* do something about this without 'losing face'. Negotiate or annihilate, that's fine. But just abandoning the Red Sea and telling the world 'gently caress it, go around until this Gaza thing wraps up' is not an option.That might sound dumb, but the credibility of your threats is a real Thing in international affairs and game theory and such.

Given that the state of US Navy tempo has led the US navy to (I think) sink more tonnage through fatigue and command fuckups than the Houthis have with drones and missiles, I think they might have a better handle on this particular equation than a lot of high level US decision makers.

This is *why* Panama/Malacca/the Suez/the Bosphorus etc. are or were once strategically important, even if it's somewhat unusual to enforce it with missiles.

Niceties like which ship is flagged to what country or what counts as 'neutral' matters about as much as the ICJ if the US can't force the Houthis into international maritime law courts to answer for their crimes. Ordinance has a way of ignoring pieces of paper.

the JJ fucked around with this message at 02:14 on Mar 4, 2024

the JJ
Mar 31, 2011
Oh, and re: the PR war, I think the Houthis are betting that 20000 Gazan children are more sympathetic victims than nebulous shell companies, international shipping magnates, and the general concept of the Market, even if the deaths of the Gazan children are 'objectively' less impactful to my personal standard of living. That goes double or triple in that region as well.

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006

Maybe it's not the place of people sitting comfortably in developed countries to tell others how to appropriately resist imperialism? A militant in Yemen probably doesn't have a lot of context other than external forces trying to starve and bomb them, does anyone expect them to run modern IFF systems?

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Maybe it's not the place of people sitting comfortably in developed countries to tell others how to appropriately resist imperialism? A militant in Yemen probably doesn't have a lot of context other than external forces trying to starve and bomb them, does anyone expect them to run modern IFF systems?

Theyíre claiming to specifically target ships owned by corporations in specific country, so it looks like they bought themselves an AIS receiver (~$800) or a MarineTraffic subscription (free with ads).

piL
Sep 20, 2007
(__|\\\\)
Taco Defender
I suspect the real winners will be whichever Houthi leadership are left standing to take credit for the eventual peace negotiations that cement the movement as the true governors of an archipelago of rubble titled "Yemen" and their loyal-or-dead followers.

An uncomfortable pariah state will emerge to often threaten but rarely impose on the global order, and we'll once again be on the cusp of peace.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Maybe it's not the place of people sitting comfortably in developed countries to tell others how to appropriately resist imperialism? A militant in Yemen probably doesn't have a lot of context other than external forces trying to starve and bomb them, does anyone expect them to run modern IFF systems?

If you claim to be the sovereign government and aspire to international recognition of that status then you get to deal with people having opinions about what you do. I don't think the Houthis give a rats rear end about what anyone on this forum thinks od their conduct.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
90% of everything travels by water, at least once. 10% of that moves through the Suez. Last I checked it was at 30% capacity. Theres also been a noticeable uptick in Chinese flags since the Houthis have said they wouldn't attack Chinese shipping.

Some short term consequences of this are that Egypt is losing out on a lot of dollars (I don't have to be sympathetic to Sisi) in an already mismanaged economy. That means further regional instability with the brunt falling on the poor.

South Sudan also receives its aid through Red Sea ports. This aid is also having trouble arriving, just another example of the systemic effects from attacking a major trade route.

Isreal receives most of its trade through the Med, they aren't really having issues due to this. The 5th fleet might have some moldy apples but they aren't having trouble due to this, it just shows how weak our logistics capability is currently.

Shipping does not carry loving treats. The US consumer will not notice a thing from this. This falls squarely on the poor. I'm not going to continue this due to the continued refusal to examine the systemic consequences and pretending like its accomplishing anything.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



Thereís only like 2000 votes, but Haley beat Trump in the DC primary 63-33.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





lightpole posted:

90% of everything travels by water, at least once. 10% of that moves through the Suez. Last I checked it was at 30% capacity. Theres also been a noticeable uptick in Chinese flags since the Houthis have said they wouldn't attack Chinese shipping.

Some short term consequences of this are that Egypt is losing out on a lot of dollars (I don't have to be sympathetic to Sisi) in an already mismanaged economy. That means further regional instability with the brunt falling on the poor.

South Sudan also receives its aid through Red Sea ports. This aid is also having trouble arriving, just another example of the systemic effects from attacking a major trade route.

Isreal receives most of its trade through the Med, they aren't really having issues due to this. The 5th fleet might have some moldy apples but they aren't having trouble due to this, it just shows how weak our logistics capability is currently.

Shipping does not carry loving treats. The US consumer will not notice a thing from this. This falls squarely on the poor. I'm not going to continue this due to the continued refusal to examine the systemic consequences and pretending like its accomplishing anything.

Are you suggesting this is a complex issue or something?

Flikken
Oct 23, 2009

10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

Mr. Nice! posted:

There’s only like 2000 votes, but Haley beat Trump in the DC primary 63-33.

Who are these 2000 republicans in DC? congressional staffers?

Plastic_Gargoyle
Aug 3, 2007
Injection-Molded

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Maybe it's not the place of people sitting comfortably in developed countries to tell others how to appropriately resist imperialism?

Have you pulled the string on this argument to see where it goes, because I feel relatively confident it isn't anywhere good.

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

Flikken posted:

Who are these 2000 republicans in DC? congressional staffers?

Well, I'd bet 63% of them are Democrats registering as Republicans to gently caress around with the GOP.

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pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

DC has a sizable contingent of establishment Republicans who haaaaaaated Trump and Iíd imagine all of them turned out to thumb their noses at him because they dread going back to work for the evil gently caress next year.

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