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Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

Like I'm sorry if you are town and all I've done is poo poo your work, but it keeps coming across to me as a whole lot of words that amount to nothing

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CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

Tea Party Crasher posted:

Yeah because your list was every loving possible permutation, excluding yourself. If I were a detective on a murder case and I was asked for possible suspects, I would rightfully be mocked for giving a list of everyone in town minus myself.

Yeah I started with all the possibilities and then eliminated a bunch. Well, all the 2-person scumteam possibilities. There are another 20 possible 3-person scumteams (though some of those are ruled out with FoS's vote on you).

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

Tea Party Crasher posted:

Also now that we have the benefit of hindsight concerning the votes on binus stagnating, I think we can agree there are two possibilities:

1. I am a stupid scum who held out a really long time only to hammer in a way that would bring a lot of tension to myself

2. All of the scum team were already on the binus vote and couldn't push it any further, meaning we should be looking at the four people who were voting before me

##vote TPC

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

Somberbrero posted:

Sorry cube binus was more persuasive ##vote binus

Anyway here's a vote that stands out as stinky

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

Maugrim posted:

After reading over last night's posts I wish I'd done less handwringing and more ##vote binus

Could also be this

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012


If you are town The fight we are going to have post game is going to be One of legend

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

CubicalSucrose posted:

Yeah I started with all the possibilities and then eliminated a bunch. Well, all the 2-person scumteam possibilities. There are another 20 possible 3-person scumteams (though some of those are ruled out with FoS's vote on you).

Was most of your "elimination" logic predicated on assumptions surrounding me because that's how I'm remembering it right now

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

Tea Party Crasher posted:

If you are town The fight we are going to have post game is going to be One of legend

I'm going to have so many questions. It feels like there's a similar undercurrent of (friendly, I hope) hostility similar to what I get when pushing up against Keats. But usually with Keats I can understand why they would be doing a thing or seeing the game in that way and I just disagree with one of their assumptions or we have different prior info for whatever reason. This one is a bit different in that I am finding it really hard to put myself in a town mindset that acts as you've done this game.

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

CubicalSucrose posted:

All right, I'm around again now. Going to play the game.

If there are 3 scum, then at least one of TPC or FoS is scum, plus or minus availability. Someone already made this point I think.

10 is closer to 9 than it is to 13, so I suppose I'll tentatively believe that it's 2 scum. Also because the math I'm about to do would get silly.

Two scum means all the following possible combinations:

Maug + OA
Maug + Salad
Maug + Somber
Maug + FoS
Maug + TPC
OA + Salad
OA + Somber
OA + FoS
OA + TPC
Salad + Somber
Salad + FoS
Salad + TPC
Somber + FoS
Somber + TPC
FoS + TPC

So 15 combos. That's not all that many. Let's try and rule some out.



CubicalSucrose posted:


And then D3 they've just gone with a hard townread on TPC for (I'm not really sure why?).

Would vote Maugrim.





CubicalSucrose posted:



D2, ignores TPC even though they were the one who resulted in us not D1-elim'ing binus (and now, resulted in an early D2-elim of binus).

Lol at this one where You quote all the times Obama has talked about me

CubicalSucrose posted:

Here's a bunch of posts from OA. A vote on TPC, and they think salad might be town! I sure hope I put enough words in this post to make the motivation behind my desire to vote OA as genuine.

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

CubicalSucrose posted:

I'm going to have so many questions. It feels like there's a similar undercurrent of (friendly, I hope) hostility similar to what I get when pushing up against Keats. But usually with Keats I can understand why they would be doing a thing or seeing the game in that way and I just disagree with one of their assumptions or we have different prior info for whatever reason. This one is a bit different in that I am finding it really hard to put myself in a town mindset that acts as you've done this game.

My friend the answer is that sometimes I get over stimulated and stupid. Sorry it's just the truth.

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

Tea Party Crasher posted:

Was most of your "elimination" logic predicated on assumptions surrounding me because that's how I'm remembering it right now

It probably isn't (exactly you + Salad) because of late-D1.

It probably isn't FoS + (anyone) because I don't think FoS is one of two scum.

That still leaves a lot of options.

After you, my top scumread right now is Maugrim and I think it's plausible that both you + Maugrim are scumbuds. I do think that Somber could be that good as scum but I think it's more likely that they tunnel binus as town.

OA's in a weird spot as they've been "almost a wagon" each of D1 or D2 but never really in any actual danger of being voted out.

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

I'd be comfortable with a Maug vote rn ##vote Maugrim

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

Tea Party Crasher posted:

Do you really think that scum wouldn't put there finger on that scale

not saying it's the most likely but they may have not had to.


Tea Party Crasher posted:

Anyway here's a vote that stands out as stinky

v0v binus was not being helpful


##vote maugrim

imagining cube and tpc as town, which feels correct to me, this is my favorite of the remaining options.

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

Tea Party Crasher posted:

I'd be comfortable with a Maug vote rn ##vote Maugrim

Is this some sort of trick? I feel like I'm being tricked.

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

CubicalSucrose posted:

Is this some sort of trick? I feel like I'm being tricked.

Ape together strong

Maugrim
Feb 16, 2011

I eat your face

Somberbrero posted:

I hear your point BUT consider, if this is scum Cube he's still working hard for the money and we should just let him have it.

This is what scum Cube relies on though. I've seen him post and post as scum in games to the point where Sandwolf (to name a specific example that comes to mind) or others are just like "well if he's scum I'm giving it to him" so he wins.

Look at the actual content of what he's posting though - it's scattershot noise. Big reams of text that look impressive but don't really come to any conclusions before swerving off in a new direction. My gut is telling me Cube scum.

If I'm wrong about TPC on the other hand I'll eat the L because they've faked some very fine "true townies" behaviour. Same for salad, he's been jumping about in what I think is a towny way.

I'm starting to wonder if it's actually Cube/Somber here.

Maugrim
Feb 16, 2011

I eat your face
Oh I see I'm at -2. THAT's interesting and fairly out of nowhere.

Maugrim
Feb 16, 2011

I eat your face
##vote Cube Here I stand, if it's TPC I'll... probably not learn anything besides not to join all-vanilla games tbh. This has been a painful experience.

Maugrim
Feb 16, 2011

I eat your face
Votecount for everyone's analysis tomorrow (assuming 2 scum)

Votecount for Day 3

Tea Party Crasher (2): fool of sound, CubicalSucrose
Maugrim (2): Tea Party Crasher, Somberbrero
CubicalSucrose (1): Tea Party Crasher, Tea Party Crasher, Maugrim

Not Voting (2): ObamaAkbar., saladscooper

With 7 alive, it's 4 votes to execute. The current deadline is May 13th, 2024 at 9 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 18 hours, 51 minutes.

ObamaAkbar.
Apr 7, 2009

DesiredPopulationMin = 3
DesiredPopulationMax = 19
AverageDeathsPerDay = 6
WeaponsUsed = 13



Sorry I’m not sold on cube or TPC, I’d rather eliminate salad tbh.

##vote salad

Wouldn’t be against voting maugrim either but for several reasons i want to see that salad flip first

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

ObamaAkbar. posted:

So you don’t want to kill him anymore?

no. that's a whole new sentence.

me wanting to kill him yesterday does not preclude me wanting to kill him today, in fact they logically flow from each other

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

ObamaAkbar. posted:

Salad also had an unexplained town read on somber very early D1. Also said unprompted that they wouldn’t vote somber:

do you think i am paired with somber? is that where this is coming from?

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

CubicalSucrose posted:

All right, I'm around again now. Going to play the game.

If there are 3 scum, then at least one of TPC or FoS is scum, plus or minus availability. Someone already made this point I think.

10 is closer to 9 than it is to 13, so I suppose I'll tentatively believe that it's 2 scum. Also because the math I'm about to do would get silly.

Two scum means all the following possible combinations:

Maug + OA
Maug + Salad
Maug + Somber
Maug + FoS
Maug + TPC
OA + Salad
OA + Somber
OA + FoS
OA + TPC
Salad + Somber
Salad + FoS
Salad + TPC
Somber + FoS
Somber + TPC
FoS + TPC

So 15 combos. That's not all that many. Let's try and rule some out.

oh thank god you're going to do all my work for me

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Somberbrero posted:

I hear your point BUT consider, if this is scum Cube he's still working hard for the money and we should just let him have it.

i still don't want to vote somber btw. obama will tunnel me for this

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Somberbrero posted:

someone already pointed out that second option hinges on the assumption that scum were definitely on the binus vote and it wasn't all otherwise town right? idk it just feels weirdly defensive. Tpc is rilly aggro in a way that no one else is. Hard to read assignment off that by itself though.

Somberbrero posted:

I get really bashful when someone goes through my post history like ahaha nooo doooon't im shy.

though i think if we want to make a case on somber these posts might form the backbone of it.

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019
##vote Cube making all that effort to go through peoples' isos and not putting a vote down until a later slapfight with tpc screams "i have to look townie and town are hesitant to vote right?"

the response to tpc's maugrim vote is what clinches it for me. i do not think town cube reacts publicly in such a paranoid way.

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

saladscooper posted:

though i think if we want to make a case on somber these posts might form the backbone of it.

to explain further: it's the fact that these posts came so close together that makes me suspicious of them. it reads like somber looked at the first post, thought "oh that's awkward" and tried to go super authentic and relatable with his next post to balance it.

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019
i'll be in the subaru place for the next 3 hours probably cause they're "experiencing longer wait times" or whatever. so please if you want to fight me do it now. they're playing pinball wizard over the loudspeaker. i'm hungry. someone please save me

saladscooper
Jan 25, 2019

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019
after cube i would do obama. not interested in voting TPC, that's probably my strongest town read at this point. not really sure about somber or maugrim.

fool of sound is the seventh player in this game.

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

saladscooper posted:

i'll be in the subaru place for the next 3 hours probably cause they're "experiencing longer wait times" or whatever. so please if you want to fight me do it now. they're playing pinball wizard over the loudspeaker. i'm hungry. someone please save me

I just woke up to an unexpectedly strange set of votes, one of which is you voting me. Once I'm out of bed I will read to understand why.

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

Maugrim posted:

Votecount for everyone's analysis tomorrow (assuming 2 scum)

Votecount for Day 3

Tea Party Crasher (2): fool of sound, CubicalSucrose
Maugrim (2): Tea Party Crasher, Somberbrero
CubicalSucrose (1): Tea Party Crasher, Tea Party Crasher, Maugrim

Not Voting (2): ObamaAkbar., saladscooper

With 7 alive, it's 4 votes to execute. The current deadline is May 13th, 2024 at 9 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 18 hours, 51 minutes.

What if it's 3 scum and we vote a scum out today?

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

saladscooper posted:

after cube i would do obama. not interested in voting TPC, that's probably my strongest town read at this point. not really sure about somber or maugrim.

fool of sound is the seventh player in this game.

Why are you town-reading TPC?

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?

saladscooper posted:

though i think if we want to make a case on somber these posts might form the backbone of it.

expand on that. maybe if i understand your point here i could understand your cube vote too. i'm getting whiplash from these reads.

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

CubicalSucrose posted:

-------------

However, that suggests D1 was town-vs-town, and that would probably have some implications for end-of-D1 voting? I'll have to think through this bit later.

Oh right I did say this and it's later.

If salad is town, D1 was Town v Town.
If TPC is scum, would they rather have binus elim'd, salad elim'd, or neither?

If it's 2 / 8 at end of day that's 2 / 7 after a NK. Vs 2 / 6 if there had been a day-elim. So I guess it doesn't actually change endgame math for scum?

Plus, the two votees would have some heat the next day.

So scum were likely to want to no-elim D1, probably regardless of whether salad is scum or not.

Not super helpful re: salad, but I do think it makes the TPC case stronger. Unless I've hosed up the endgame math.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
HEY SO - whoah capslock on. Hey so hear me out. With this weird voting pattern of 2-2-2-1, there are only three people without votes. It's me, fool of sound, and Obama.

do you think the *most likely* split of votes on our current candidates is 3 town and 1 scum? that is to say that we have 3 town and 1 scum in our pool of candidates with votes. (yes i'm assuming 2 scum bc that's what I'd do if I were modding)

i do think that's the most likely, which leads me to believe that Fool of Sound or ObamaAkbar is the other scum. right now i'm leaning fool because no one seems to have an actual read on them.

(let me know if this makes sense)

Tea Party Crasher
Sep 3, 2012

Maugrim posted:

This has been a painful experience.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

ꜱʜʀɪᴍᴘ?
i'm having fun playing mafia with all my friends

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

Somberbrero posted:

HEY SO - whoah capslock on. Hey so hear me out. With this weird voting pattern of 2-2-2-1, there are only three people without votes. It's me, fool of sound, and Obama.

do you think the *most likely* split of votes on our current candidates is 3 town and 1 scum? that is to say that we have 3 town and 1 scum in our pool of candidates with votes. (yes i'm assuming 2 scum bc that's what I'd do if I were modding)

i do think that's the most likely, which leads me to believe that Fool of Sound or ObamaAkbar is the other scum. right now i'm leaning fool because no one seems to have an actual read on them.

(let me know if this makes sense)

I have a townread on FoS and a null read on OA and a slight townread on you.

Hmm.

From the perspective of you and OA and FoS, I can see how this "narrow it down to two" might be appealing. But also, the three of you have been collectively deemed "less scummy than the alternative" by the group.

If you believe that scum are voting different people right now and aren't willing to bus, then at least two of the people with votes right now are town.

Mmm...Suppose somber is scum, this seems like maybe an excuse to get a swerve going. But which of the current vote-havers would be scum-Somber's partner? Maybe three scum?

ObamaAkbar.
Apr 7, 2009

DesiredPopulationMin = 3
DesiredPopulationMax = 19
AverageDeathsPerDay = 6
WeaponsUsed = 13



saladscooper posted:

no. that's a whole new sentence.

me wanting to kill him yesterday does not preclude me wanting to kill him today, in fact they logically flow from each other

But you can’t even articulate why you wanted to kill him, doesn’t follow that you would still want to kill him given that.

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ObamaAkbar.
Apr 7, 2009

DesiredPopulationMin = 3
DesiredPopulationMax = 19
AverageDeathsPerDay = 6
WeaponsUsed = 13



saladscooper posted:

do you think i am paired with somber? is that where this is coming from?

That’s part of my paranoia yes

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