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Keats, do you have any reason to believe that your power is why there was no n3 kill? I don't want to try and get you to give out any more than absolutely necessary, as much as I'd love to just. Have a full claim from you. But I know we aren't getting that, so I'm trying to confirm or deny a suspicion
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# ¿ Feb 9, 2025 02:38 |
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fool of sound posted:Why on earth would scum kill Hal, Keats, or I? We’re the obvious topics of discussion for today. Keats makes kind of the least sense as a target since he's the most unconfirmed role. Hal could be a good target though because masonizer is strong for scum to remove, and as you stated, while not optimal, people are sometimes suboptimal
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As for you I didn't imagine that you had been targeted, I didn't(intentionally at least) float that possibility
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fool of sound posted:Masonizer is not strong for scum to remove??? What on earth are you talking about? I mean. I'd argue it is, because secret communication is very valuable as town?
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I think in general I'm fine with FoS or Keats today, because I consider the most likely case being both of them. I really can't see scum Hal without a whole lot of very strange coincidences, as well as bad decisions, being made. I actually think that scum are as confused as anyone about the failed kills, at this stage. I can't really back this up, but it's a feeling that nobody knows why, which causes me to lean towards yuming talismans being the cause. It really is kind of the clincher, either her talismans caused at least one no kill, or she's been lying this whole time with the Miller gambit and all, and has actually been scum. TMor is also very much an option for no new reasons, but all very thoroughly explained ones. My best guess if I had to pick all three this second would be Keats, FoS, TMor
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Sandwolf posted:I’m in the “I wish I had a loving gun” phase because the rest of you are dragging your feet or purposefully carrying water for the scumteam I think we should pick between FoS and Keats, end one of them, and make judgements in the morning, and I've been somewhat clear on that. Most other people seem ill inclined to end the day early for whatever reason(I get wanting more information. But we're not GETTING more info)
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fool of sound posted:Also even if we accept that someone wanted to kill Hal, there are a very limited number of people who don't have accounted for night actions. If we assume you're town, you clear yuming, which means the only options to have done and failed a kill last night is Keats and TMor. If you're scum, it adds you and yuming to the options
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Tired Moritz posted:i still wanna kill hal More than one of the eccosmith targets?
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At this stage I don't think we're going to get any more out of the day and we should make a choice. My proposal is FoS, based both on behavior, and on the fact that if I'm wrong, and FoS is town, that also clears Yuming, where as I don't really think any other option for the chopping block ALSO clears someone else if we're wrong(or if we're right, to be fair)
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fool of sound posted:Why on earth would pick me over keats when keats' role is unverified, he equivocated about showing as a killer, he played coy over being a loving bodyguard, and he claims to have perma-bodyguarded the claimed miller. The claimed miller in a game with no alignment cop. Because you're REALLY sure about it being Keats, now, after not even mentioning him at the beginning of the day when you knew about the fact that it would be you or him on the chopping block due to Sand's results. fool of sound posted:This is bad reasoning. You should be targeting the most likely scum on the pretty real chance that scum have a doublekill up their sleeve, either via Hal or keats/yuming talismans. It's way too late to be knowingly hedging your bets for tomorrow. Also, well done replying to something close to, but not actually, what I said. What I said was that we have a few very solid choices right now, and the best one is you because while none of them are a sure thing, you give us info either way. And, like I said, I'd be happy with Keats as a choice, just not as happy as you. I still think our best bet is you, TM, Keats
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fool of sound posted:But what I'm asking you, spacebonito, is why you think one set of results is completely accurate and the other should be discarded. Because I have eavesdropper powers and have seen Sandwolf use their ability. I don't think it reasonable to imagine that they're a scum eccogunsmith, and I don't think it at all likely a townie would lie about their results after making an honest roleclaim. Also, Sandwolf's results are "One of these two people is scum", whereas the 'results' on Hal are "They visited somebody who died". Which, while somewhat damning, isn't NEARLY as certain a thing as "One of these two is scum"
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Also I didn't say it should be discarded, I've listed Hal as one of the possible scum in my explanations, I just don't think they're the best choice TODAY. I definitely think it's possible that it's FoS/Keats, Rangoon, Hal. But I find it very VERY unlikely that it is Keats if it's the other two, things considered, so
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Johnny Keats posted:Two? Cause one of the three are dead, and was town, so there's only the two left. This has already been said but I figured I would also say it
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My primary, active theory stands as FoS, Keats and TMfool of sound posted:Vague protection that gives no indication that it has been extended nor expended? Sounds like bullshit lol. Same with your "flavor miller oops actually real miller I asked the mod!!" claim I hate this. This is bad. Because I'm fairly sure your logic of "Your role sounds too made up" was also why you were instantly on board on voting out Cube. Tm's behavior in the waning hours of the day has been also wildly bad, and I have had nothing but bad feelings about them throughout the game, and they've failed at every turn to give me any reason not to think it's them. And, in fact, their immediate and baffling sudden defense of Keats D2 makes me think they're in it together. Long story made short, our masons could put an end to this day and drop FoS and I would be happy with this. FoS and TM spent a lot of today trying to cast doubt on Sand's results, often in ways that don't make sense(Our only redirector is TM, unless we think there's secretly ANOTHER one in addition to, again, all the other confirmed abilities we've seen. The only person who it MIGHT be is Keats, who is on the chopping block ANYWAY, so the idea that he'd somehow do a redirection that still makes him look guilty is. Unlikely. We also are able to confirm TM's redirect target for N2, meaning N2's results are basically guaranteed, in my mind)
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Real quick question FoS. How come you were dead silent when I was making a similar case against Keats on the prior game day? This targeting of him feels extremely opportunistic, especially when, again, you didn't do it at the beginning of d3 when it would have been a thing town does to not themselves get murdered for being sand's eccosmith target
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To be clear, I'm fairly certain it's both of them so if we get rid of Keats today, regardless of flip we need to seriously go for FoS tomorrow
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Keats sounds like they're strawmanning 100% of the time they have talked in this thread, I kinda consider that a null tell at this point... Anyway, I do agree with the point that FoS, from his perspective, shouldn't NEED a case at this stage, unless he's doubting Sand's results, which he has pulled back from actually doing. I'm getting exhausted restating my own opinions though, and nothing has happened that changes my current #1 theory of the game, plus my #2 theory still has "Kill FoS First" in it, so
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Johnny Keats posted:This makes me think you don't know what "strawmanning" means. I pointed it out a bunch while we argued D2, because you very frequently will argue a point adjacent to, but not actually head on with, the one that the person arguing with you is making. It's why people very often have replied to you with "You know drat well that isn't what I was saying" fool of sound posted:...why would you consider scummy play a null tell from someone you haven't played with before? Like sand has played with keats a ton and they have a metaconflict that spans multiple games. You have no such thing. This reeks of motivated reasoning. Because nobody else really thought it was all that questionable until today, leading me to believe that since his behavior hasn't changed, something else has, and THAT reeks of motivated reasoning. Not that it matters all that much, really, to be honest, I still think it's both of you, I just don't want you to get away with claiming Town after Keats flips scum
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Johnny Keats posted:Isn't that what people are saying anyway? It's what people who are absolutely convinced Hal is scum are saying, anyway
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fool of sound posted:This is straightforward. Even if keats isn't scum (dubious), his claim is functionally scum-aligned and he will betray town in lylo. He has to be executed period. An odd stance to take, since what you're saying is "If Keats's claim is true, he needs to go immediately", which is strange, considering if Keats's claim is true, you're confirmed scum
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Yeah that's...not really relevant? Because again, what you're saying is "Even if Keats is telling the truth, that means we have to axe him" Which, no, if Keats is telling the truth, we need to axe you. Period.
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So at this stage the question really needs to be whether or not people believe Keats's claim. If you do, FoS is the vote. Otherwise it has to be Keats, because lying a full claim at this stage would be impossibly scummy. Honestly, I'm confused as to why this is still a conversation as opposed to just having FoS be the vote
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fool of sound posted:The point is that it no longer matters if keats is wholly lying (possible; it doesn't make a lot of sense to choose a claimed miller as his survivor target), partially lying and concealing a vig (possible; he hedged his bets when the eccosmith first came out with the "crazy mod" thing), or telling the truth (doubtful), he needs to be eliminated. Yeah, I don't understand how you keep saying "If he's telling the truth he has to go" when the condition of him telling the truth is that you're scum, and saying "Even if I'm scum, Keats is the better target"
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fool of sound posted:Because keats is probably scum! He's been playing scummy all game! Except his scum play also aligns with his claim
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fool of sound posted:The worst case scenario for eliminating keats is that he's fully telling the truth and a functional scum is eliminated. The worst case scenario for eliminating me is that keats is just lying, I'm town, and he's scum. This is bad and I think that it is obvious why it is bad
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fool of sound posted:Does it? Why is yuming so invested in defending him if she's unaware, why is he so disinterested in defending himself if that fucks up his ability to revive the person he needs to protect? I mean, it doesn't, really. His lover/survivor claim doesn't really care about his own survival, and when he flips down and you go down next, that still works to his end game.
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Hal Incandenza posted:Oh my a lot happened while I slept! I mean, this is only true if you're scum, Rangoon isn't, and you and your scumbud double-tap in the night. Otherwise we don't really lose if we get this wrong
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At this stage I'm willing to vote Keats because I have been since basically go, and I'm tired of people ignoring the extremely obvious, very clear scumFoS and I'd rather we flip Keats now so we can see FoS is scum instead of spending the next 24 hours or so listening to y'all be wrong What's the vote count at?
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fool of sound posted:Why haven't you pushed yuming at all until this point if you believe that? Did you deliberately forget his claim to ask this, or...?
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Yeah, I'm so exhausted by this at this stage. I actually do believe the claim, but at this point I'm with Sandwolf and I just want this all to end. Let's kill FoS tomorrow and TMor the day after please. ##vote: keats
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fool of sound posted:That was fun and an incredibly exhausting 108 post final day for me lol. I cannot believe you got away with that
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# ¿ Feb 9, 2025 02:38 |
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Also Spork, did not show up on my radar even once, if I had my way it would have been FoS, then either yuming or TM next, I don't think I'd have ever gone after you. Well played
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