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I think even if we're looking for a traitor though, ignoring voting analysis as a whole might be a bit much. The cases on the flipped scum were generally pretty good. Lih was mechanically caught, but even before then there was discussion of that case. If an uninformed party exists who was disincentivized to vote scum, it might be possible to see it through their posting to some degree. Though I still say that's an if. There could have just been 5 scum and salad's role info is a red herring
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Feb 5, 2025 12:57
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Sandwolf posted:Holy poo poo are we still litigating this? sandwolf sticks out as wanting spork gone d4 and I think the traitor would have been able to see that spork wasn't scum, so I could see a traitor voting for spork over nat, though the 3p fakeclaim muddies this somewhat. despite this with sandwolf, I don't think it's sandwolf as regular scum and I don't think sandwolf's a traitor either. reason I don't think he's a traitor is partly rolebased because he's clearly a real defender. there are only two defenders and having a way to detect medics and defectors when one is a traitor seems not very useful if you don't know that info. from a posting perspective, I don't think if sandwolf was anti-town and uninformed that he'd happen to point at 2 scum and still keep beating that drum
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Feb 5, 2025 13:02
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windward had a meaningful role in busting two scum. her visit to salad n2 can't have been fake because of cube's track. I don't think she's scum, and she's definitely not a traitor since d5 she brought forth the info about lih immediately
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Feb 5, 2025 13:04
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Bifauxnen posted:Hm, Lih and Sandwolf sounded a bit too scummily eager to latch onto the easiest shade for today if Spork is town. And I have seen people do a lot of really crazy poo poo as town. From where I'm sitting, Spork also looks townier for coming forward when he could've sat back and just let me take the heat instead. posts like this make me think bif isn't scum. if bif is a traitor she could be going after a suspected 3p with sincerity, but there were already things to see with lih such as calling the push for the spork vote that makes me think bif is more likely on the up and up purely from a posting-analysis perspective
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Feb 5, 2025 13:08
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Monathin posted:I'm going to admit up front I don't have a case to go with that but I'm making sure to put my vote there for now to remind myself Disco Anne was the exe Gulag wanted most on D1 so this is a reminder to myself to go looking at DA's posts in light of the flips I'm actually hmming at mona a bit here. Jumping on someone on an observation such as this seems strange from the perspective of someone who can investigate killing power. You know, like wait and see and try to get a night result later without drawing too much focus to yourself. and as I write this and read more and think, I'm not sure if I consciously accept this but my instincts are currently broadcasting "holy poo poo it's mona" at high volume
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Feb 5, 2025 13:15
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come to think of it, isn't it odd that mona's role has a special response to finding the artillery controller when the controller was scum? and that mona placed himself at the scene of gulag's murder when claiming? and and
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Feb 5, 2025 13:19
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Monathin posted:Connecting us is actually weird enough to make me prove you right actually ##vote wologar this was monathin's previous d1 vote before hopping onto psychosoldier!!! wologar! who did look sketchy by resisting the psycho vote end of d1! but mona chose to investigate gulag instead!
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Feb 5, 2025 13:20
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Nep-Nep posted:but like for example this in response to lih and mona seeming gung ho about voting lih and then not going any harder and then jumping onto wolo less than an hour later. I don't think I actually wanna vote mona at this point but it's a thought I want to put down in advance of day 2 and I said this d1. and notice it happens to be about mona's interactions regarding lih! I now think I was onto something
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Feb 5, 2025 13:21
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hell, let's kick the beehive ##vote monathin
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Feb 5, 2025 13:21
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lih posted:##vote nat20 lih did this knowing nat was gonna flip scum. in other words, it was a paper theory that would never have to be pursued further because mona would never be voted out before nat
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Feb 5, 2025 13:24
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that's the easiest way not to get caught lying as scum after all: just say things that are true
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Feb 5, 2025 13:25
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I think I have something here but I am still going to go over the rest of the players
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Feb 5, 2025 13:31
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:I am a Drone controller like cube, but my drones maintain surveillance on targets, giving me a list of actions taken on them each night this claim needs scrutiny I think as well. from d4: AFancyQuestionMark posted:I might possibly have some info relevant to this, but can't quite put it together AFancyQuestionMark posted:Or perhaps a better way to go about this: AFancyQuestionMark posted:There is something going on here with busdrives and redirects AFancyQuestionMark posted:According to my understanding, wolo was swapped with nep nep and died So if your drones show the actions taken on your targets and you saw that someone received a message, who we then determined to be wolo from the surrounding discussion, then presumably you tried to apply a drone to me to see what actions are taken against me each night, but ended up putting a drone on wolo instead. If that's the case, why have you instead been seeing what's happening to bif since then? AFancyQuestionMark posted:Bif was recruited into a masonry again like this. I don't think this is some damning catch, but it warrants clarification
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Feb 5, 2025 13:41
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Humalong seemingly has an alibi for last night per AFQM and a claimed non-killer result from Mona. They obviously can't both be lying and even if somehow they were, that would still suggest at these numbers that Humalong should be on the up and up.
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Feb 5, 2025 13:43
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Nep-Nep posted:this claim needs scrutiny I think as well. from d4: I only sent a drone to bif n4. Before that, I sent a drone to wologar and you, but it was actually wologar twice
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Feb 5, 2025 13:47
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okay, so there were just more drones. that works for me
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Feb 5, 2025 13:48
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The reason I knew about bif's message is that she sent it to wologar/you and I saw that action on wologar
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Feb 5, 2025 13:48
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:I don't know how the artillery works. It could be random. It could be directable with a charged power. Hell, for all I know, there could be a random selection mechanic where any one of two or three different players, maybe of entirely different alignments, get control over who is targeted in the day and it's only random once all of them are eliminated sort of like Umineko 1's stakes. The specific post was about if this soft-cleared Nep-Nep though and my verdict there is "could be, I'd believe it" in spite of the fact that if it targeted you or Zoya or Grandi or Sandwolf my verdict would instead be "IDK, I wouldn't assume that right now". this doesn't read to me like an interaction between two scum, traitor or otherwise. hard pass on voting meen outside of the "hider scary!" reasoning
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Feb 5, 2025 13:56
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:My surveillance is permanent once applied Ah ok, thanks for clarifying
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Feb 5, 2025 13:58
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:While thinking through anything that might be brought up reasonably as a problem with using Wind and Mona together, I remembered that we never did figure out how that one kill went off originally without the presence of a juggernaut. Oh hey, I completely forgot about that empowerer flip but yeah, that would explain a possible jugg kill (or at least, maybe that's why salad reacted so incredibly weirdly about the roleblock and jugg talk)
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Feb 5, 2025 13:59
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Nep-Nep posted:I'm actually hmming at mona a bit here. Jumping on someone on an observation such as this seems strange from the perspective of someone who can investigate killing power. You know, like wait and see and try to get a night result later without drawing too much focus to yourself. Didn't Mona out Nat, though?
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Feb 5, 2025 14:01
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Nep-Nep posted:this doesn't read to me like an interaction between two scum, traitor or otherwise. hard pass on voting meen outside of the "hider scary!" reasoning Hider is probably another defense against scum having a factional kill + artillery (plus Spork the town vig) I don't think there's any reason to believe the hider is scum
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Feb 5, 2025 14:03
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WindwardAway posted:Didn't Mona out Nat, though? yeah, though in context both bif and myself were already pressuring nat and I'd shown a reasonable suggestion that salad's behavior suggested a connection in my casework. then nat went with the 3p move.maybe nat was quick thinking, but it also could have been a plan to get nat out of the hot seat
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Feb 5, 2025 14:05
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Imo it wouldn't make sense for scum!AFQM to surveil wolo and then kill him, btw So I would definitely rule out AFQM as group scum now that I understand how his role works
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Feb 5, 2025 14:05
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spork, who was town, killed wolo. there was a whole big thing d4 over that the scum kill n3 was therefore cube
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Feb 5, 2025 14:06
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Nep-Nep posted:yeah, though in context both bif and myself were already pressuring nat and I'd shown a reasonable suggestion that salad's behavior suggested a connection in my casework. then nat went with the 3p move.maybe nat was quick thinking, but it also could have been a plan to get nat out of the hot seat Yeah, I'm still thinking about that since Nat was pretty widely suspected. It's just that I don't know that it really gained Monathin any towncred, even though his information was correct, so I'm not sure it had that much use as a scum move. I do kind of wonder why Bif sent her message to Grandi last night if they were already in a masonry together. Like, wouldn't it have been better to send it to someone external?
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Feb 5, 2025 14:07
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Nep-Nep posted:spork, who was town, killed wolo. there was a whole big thing d4 over that Rats, I forgot that lmao
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Feb 5, 2025 14:07
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And I'm the one who made a big deal out of it
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Feb 5, 2025 14:08
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WindwardAway posted:Yeah, I'm still thinking about that since Nat was pretty widely suspected. It's just that I don't know that it really gained Monathin any towncred, even though his information was correct, so I'm not sure it had that much use as a scum move. So lih gets voted out d5. Put yourself in the shoes of the last scum, whoever they are. Why was there no kill n5? If it's afqm, sure, that explains it nice and easy. But presumably this person is the last scum and is in a desperate situation. Between grandi, afqm, mon and you there are 4 dangerous power roles that could result in an instant checkmate, and 3 from the perspective of a scum hiding within those claims. Yet the kill was withheld. If it's not afqm, then I think the goal of that someone else would have been to make us assume whoever you roleblocked was suspicious, and they'd have to be reasonably confident they wouldn't be the target.
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Feb 5, 2025 14:14
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Nep-Nep posted:hell, let's kick the beehive ##vote monathin All I can say to this is lmao
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Feb 5, 2025 14:25
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Why would I willingly trace myself back to Gulag as scum. Why would I reveal that I had a specific condition to out the artillery controller if I knew the artillery controller was scum (and it was in fact the basis for Why I presumed Nat was 3p and not scum like he flipped), what does anything I have done so far gain me as scum that isn't a net loss due to losing members of the scumteam I know we're being paranoid here in the late stages of the game but come the gently caress on
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Feb 5, 2025 14:28
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I literally openly suspected lih for throwing the worst possible shade on me the day before we flipped her as scum. Lih wasn't just mechanically caught and you're doing a lot of heavy lifting by saying you and bif were already pressuring Nat and that lih was not similarly in the view of other people the day before.
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Feb 5, 2025 14:30
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Lih got turbo'd before even getting to speak up due to the rather open and shut case. Otherwise I'd think there would have been at least -discussion- that day. But yes there was prior discussion. I was even part of it as d4 I voted lih for awhile because I said the defense of salad late d3 looked really bad. Anyway, to your credit, I expected if you were scum that you might say any number of those things, but I was also expecting you to throw in my face the hard evidence that is the first line of lih's role pm. These are mostly thoughts I wanted to get out here, though I don't really think realistically it's gonna be you today, nor do I know that it actually should be, since if I'm indeed lost in the clouds maybe you'll just pick right and we'll be able to prove it since we can't lose by missing today or d8
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Feb 5, 2025 14:39
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but that aside most of your response can be brushed off as wifom. Before you claimed d4 nat already had some heat. Lih was in a bit of trouble too, and regardless of which side you were on nat did claim 3p and it led to you posting stuff like this also:Monathin posted:Definitely more willing to vote Spork atm rather than Nat. I think Nat's readiness to claim makes sense with my initial thoughts of how Crab danced around the topic.
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Feb 5, 2025 14:42
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:##vote bif Yeah this quick turnabout doesn't feel very genuine when AFQM has received one of said messages and should have an idea how pedestrian they are. Nep-Nep posted:hell, let's kick the beehive ##vote monathin At least Nep Burgundy has to live with some of the same paranoia I'm cursed with, lol WindwardAway posted:Oh hey, I completely forgot about that empowerer flip but yeah, that would explain a possible jugg kill (or at least, maybe that's why salad reacted so incredibly weirdly about the roleblock and jugg talk) Huh, same here though. WindwardAway posted:Yeah, I'm still thinking about that since Nat was pretty widely suspected. It's just that I don't know that it really gained Monathin any towncred, even though his information was correct, so I'm not sure it had that much use as a scum move. I was curious to see if he'd announce it or not. That and I got the funny idea to send him my "recipe" for fairy bread while saying it was too secret to risk Hum overhearing.
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Feb 5, 2025 14:44
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drat I should be splitting those quotes up
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Feb 5, 2025 14:46
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My role PM literally said that I gain a special result when I find the artillery controller. I had no other context for what that might be - and if you'll recall there was plenty of other discussion about how the artillery controller could be a 3P, since at the time what we had to go on was a scum flip that had Blastproof. Like yeah I'm not gonna deny I made a bad call there but also there's basically no point having this conversation until we flip some of the more likely suspects instead of the claimed gunsmith
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Feb 5, 2025 14:48
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okay, who do you think it is?
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Feb 5, 2025 14:53
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##vote meen
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Feb 5, 2025 14:53
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Bifauxnen posted:Yeah this quick turnabout doesn't feel very genuine when AFQM has received one of said messages and should have an idea how pedestrian they are. now I know you say paranoia but paranoia can also be right. do you think I have anything or have I completely lost it?
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Feb 5, 2025 14:54
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