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Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Consensus lottery as per rookiescale.com on 3/15

  1. Cooper Flagg
  2. Dylan Harper
  3. Ace Bailey
  4. VJ Edgecombe
  5. Tre Johnson
  6. Kasparas Jakucionis(sp)
  7. Kon Kneuppel
  8. Khaman Maluach
  9. Derik Queen
  10. Jeremiah Fears
  11. Liam McNeely
  12. Collin Murray-Boyles
  13. Asa Newell
  14. Nolan Traore
  15. Jase Richardson

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Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Placeholder for an effort post by someone (probably not me)

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I really just made this thread because I wanted to talk about Ace Bailey a little bit. His jumper is so clean. But also I worry about it because while his shot looks to be perfect in the air, his body form is weird and I worry a notorious "gently caress with a player's mechanics" 76ers team could be where he ends up and his career could be over before it starts.

Also he really flies around on defense but everyone says low defensive IQ. But I like what I see so far.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
I’ll feel pretty ok if the Hornets can land top three and get one of Flagg, Harper or Edgecombe. Bailey feels like a bust to me and the rest of the high lotto is kind of whatever

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

I’ve heard of one of those players listed above! Is this class considered strong? I know nothing about anyone but Randall Flagg the man in black.

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

morestuff posted:

I’ll feel pretty ok if the Hornets can land top three and get one of Flagg, Harper or Edgecombe. Bailey feels like a bust to me and the rest of the high lotto is kind of whatever

This is basically what I want for the Pels but with the addition of Khaman if they miss out on the top 3.

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

RCarr posted:

I’ve heard of one of those players listed above! Is this class considered strong? I know nothing about anyone but Randall Flagg the man in black.

Strong #1, above average lottery, probably above average non-lottery.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
According to Vecenie, the draft guy I generally like best, the high lotto outside the top two is weak but there’s some depth down the line.

ssmagus
Apr 2, 2010
Assmagus, LPer ass-traordinaire
Flagg is top one, then it's 2-3 on the next tier then 4-9 all on the next tier below for player strength

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

I like the top-5 guys but all outside of Flagg have some questions.

I really like Kasparas but he has struggled. I think he has the most to gain with a strong tournament.

Bailey is such an enigma, but I like his vibe. He looks like he can get a lot stronger, especially his base, which I think can make him a lot more versatile as a scorer. I don't think Rutgers was the right spot for him, he would have benefited by going to a veteran team where he could have played within a structured offense.

Henchman of Santa
Aug 21, 2010
Jase is a pretty weird player and I’m surprised he has risen to lottery levels after coming off the bench most of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays in school (having an NBA player dad, he is not hurting for money either). I don’t know if I would say he does anything particularly well but is the only consistent player on the MSU roster. He doesn’t have his dad’s insane athleticism or knock down shooting (yet), is shorter than him and has kind of the Harden torso.

If you want to talk raw talent on the Spartan roster (though he is probably not coming out either), please enjoy this Coen Carr dunk compilation. He is one of the highest flyers I’ve ever seen. At this point his only real basketball skill is offensive rebounding though.

https://youtu.be/desdVuAcywk?si=VeB8odrsyCZPHxFB

Smeef
Aug 15, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!



Pillbug

Henchman of Santa posted:

has kind of the Harden torso.

Gonna start using this to describe my own physique :btroll:

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

"Are you prepared to take up my burden, then? If you slay the heart, then yours must take its place—and you must take mine. The Dutchman must always have a captain."
Hair Elf
I feel like Rutgers being so terrible despite having 2 top 3 picks has really dampened the excitement for this draft.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

morestuff posted:

I’ll feel pretty ok if the Hornets can land top three and get one of Flagg, Harper or Edgecombe. Bailey feels like a bust to me and the rest of the high lotto is kind of whatever

Yeah this vid points out he has an extremely low AST% and that apparently that is a common trait among a lot of busts. Pretty good breakdown of him though if someone only has 13 minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YRv6Uh0S8M

rivetz
Sep 22, 2000


Isn't next year's draft supposed to be pretty stacked as well?

I ask because the Blazers are not good this year yet seem to be pretty committed to stumbling into the play-in to get whacked by OKC/DEN/etc, and they also owe a lottery-protected 1st-rounder to the Bulls. Since the consensus seems to be that there's a dip in quality after the top tier of prospects, I wonder if the thinking isn't that if you don't have a decent shot at a top-4 guy, this might not be the worst year to bite the bullet and get out from under that commitment, especially if (like Portland) you are not particularly competitive and there are multiple paths to poo poo going sideways next year, vs this year when some things came together and you were not Charlotte-level bad. I'm not seeing much to indicate that a #11ish pick is all that much better this year than any other.

E: this is confusing, not gonna rewrite but to be clear I understand that Portland keeps their pick if it's in the lottery, I was more referring to having control of your assets if you try to package expiring $ in some deal etc.

rivetz fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Mar 20, 2025

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy
the next draft is supposed to have more superstar-likely talent. i think the depth remains to be seen, though.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


It is hard for me to imagine Kanrnisovas being able to pass on a Lithuanian kid who plays for Illinois, that's like 2 of his three criteria (the other one is can't shoot).

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

rivetz posted:

Isn't next year's draft supposed to be pretty stacked as well?

I ask because the Blazers are not good this year yet seem to be pretty committed to stumbling into the play-in to get whacked by OKC/DEN/etc, and they also owe a lottery-protected 1st-rounder to the Bulls. Since the consensus seems to be that there's a dip in quality after the top tier of prospects, I wonder if the thinking isn't that if you don't have a decent shot at a top-4 guy, this might not be the worst year to bite the bullet and get out from under that commitment, especially if (like Portland) you are not particularly competitive and there are multiple paths to poo poo going sideways next year, vs this year when some things came together and you were not Charlotte-level bad. I'm not seeing much to indicate that a #11ish pick is all that much better this year than any other.

E: this is confusing, not gonna rewrite but to be clear I understand that Portland keeps their pick if it's in the lottery, I was more referring to having control of your assets if you try to package expiring $ in some deal etc.
I think next year the Blazers will be a playoff team barring a ton of injuries. I would prefer they tank this year to maximize the value and go for Flagg, but if they make the playoffs (LOL) than it is what it is.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011
I hope the Sixers continue to tank and are able to keep their pick

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I think Kylan Boswell really solidified himself as mid-range second round pick this tournament if he chooses to enter the draft. Modern Derek Fisher.

Henchman of Santa
Aug 21, 2010
The Ringer has a Big Board that’s only 14 players?

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

morestuff posted:

According to Vecenie, the draft guy I generally like best, the high lotto outside the top two is weak but there’s some depth down the line.

I think he said something to the effect of no one agreeing on who's better between 4 and 20. Forget the exact number but something to that effect

And i will write this to get it out of my head

derik queen, perchance to dream,
You used my head like an exploder

-song derik queen by t rex

Also derik is how a baby would spell the name derek

RC and Moon Pie
May 5, 2011

Dejan Bimble posted:

I think he said something to the effect of no one agreeing on who's better between 4 and 20. Forget the exact number but something to that effect

And i will write this to get it out of my head

derik queen, perchance to dream,
You used my head like an exploder

-song derik queen by t rex

Also derik is how a baby would spell the name derek

The score's the same
The ref's to blame
He shot the ball like a revolver
The score's the same

Not alright
A walk is what you want
Traveling call-er, take it away
Give me your turnover

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

RC and Moon Pie posted:

The score's the same
The ref's to blame
He shot the ball like a revolver
The score's the same

Not alright
A walk is what you want
Traveling call-er, take it away
Give me your turnover

:bravo:

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Carter Bryant moving up people's boards is nice. I'm honestly too close to the whole thing at the moment but he does seem like one of the better defensive wings in the draft (are we calling Flagg a wing?).

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy
I’m just calling cooper a forward

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

Cooper is the singularity

Paul Zuvella
Dec 7, 2011

pooper

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy
the reporter & pels fan discord i'm in has an unofficial big board that looks something like:

cooper





harper


edgecombe/bailey/maluach

tre johnson/knueppel/jakucionis/queen


much later in the draft, they are also excited bout tomislav

BossTweed
Apr 9, 2001


Doctor Rope
Where is my boy Walter Clayton Jr going to go?

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

BossTweed posted:

Where is my boy Walter Clayton Jr going to go?

If he goes into the combine and shoots lights out he could move up maybe but right now he's a late second or UDFA. He'll be on someone's Summer League team for sure.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Flagg isn't just a number one pick. He is rare. He is maybe a top 5 prospect in the last 20 years

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
I wouldn’t go that far but hes a beast for sure

C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008

Dejan Bimble posted:

Flagg isn't just a number one pick. He is rare. He is maybe a top 5 prospect in the last 20 years

Wemby
Zion (as prospect)
KAT
Davis
Irving
Rose

Not saying Flagg is a bum but those are off the top of my head and not touching anyone who didn’t go one like Durant.

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007


C. Everett Koop posted:

Wemby
Zion (as prospect)
KAT
Davis
Irving
Rose

Not saying Flagg is a bum but those are off the top of my head and not touching anyone who didn’t go one like Durant.

I'd put both Oden and Durant up there as mega-prospects that just happened to come out the same year if we're looking at just hype and how they were viewed at the time without hindsight.

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

C. Everett Koop posted:

Wemby
Zion (as prospect)
KAT
Davis
Irving
Rose

Not saying Flagg is a bum but those are off the top of my head and not touching anyone who didn’t go one like Durant.

I was going through a similar list and I would say Flagg is in a tier just below Wemby.

You could sell me on Zion, Flagg's age, production, and the Olympic mythology puts him really high up the board on best prospects since LeBron.

Henchman of Santa
Aug 21, 2010
I don't remember Rose or Kyrie getting nearly as much hype from preseason all the way through the tournament (Kyrie got hurt like 11 games in though). KAT was someone whose stock rose over time too. IIRC the presumptive top pick going into that season was Jahlil Okafor lol.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


there was an actual Rose vs. Supercool Beas debate, but I think the city of Chicago was 100% locked in on Rose.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

I fight with
my brain
and with an
underlying
hatred of the
Erebonian
Noble Faction
Flagg's perception as a top pick certainly feels stronger. I feel like it's been three or four solid years I have known about this guy, in a way where he didn't also flame out in the medium term. Off the top of my head, Wemby is the only one who carried that same aura and managed to keep it.

The guys I can name that had similar hype ended up losing the hype. Ricky Rubio being one that sticks out.

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Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

I tend to look at the top of drafts having 3 tiers:

Destined for Greatness - Players who, barring injury, are expected to be, at a minimum, multiple time all stars. A lot of drafts don't have these guys, but when they do, teams would never trade the top pick. These are guys like LeBron, Zion, Wemby, etc.

Consensus top pick - Players who could be good but, barring injury, are expected to at least be 10 year starters and if they pan out could be all stars. Cade is a good example, and Flagg feels right here. There is usually one of these in any given draft, occasionally a couple.

Guys who shouldn't be top picks but because the draft didn't have any guys from the top two tiers, analysts talk themselves into someone being a tier 2 player when they are really tier 3

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