Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Interesting Tweets from Libery4Libya:
Tripoli

quote:

#Tripoli caller to #AJA: there is a state of confusion within the security organization in #Tripoli, all bases and centers have been emptied

All bases and barracks are maned by female guards in the city.

Gadafi has stopped distributing weapons to civilians due to lack of confidence.

Tripoli caller to #AJA was very nervous and breathing heavy, seemed very scared, call ended abrubtly.

Misarata

quote:

Misurata Caller 2 #AJA: struggle in city is ongoing, some snipers R in the center of the city, while other #Gadafi forces R shelling Radio

our radio requency now broadcasting to all of #Libya on midiium wave, apperantly angered #Gadafi & tried bombing it

Gadafi militias also R trying to bomb fuel storage facilities but failed, we R putting a fierce resistance to stop them.

Thanks to #Qatar for the assistance we recieved from them, we have no water, no power, but we are happy as long as we R free.

Brega

quote:

from #Brega: fighting is about 120km west of #Brega, there was an attempt to enter #Harawa by #FLArmy, faced with Grad & Tank shl

Gadfi fighters R putting strong resistance today, many of #Gadafi sons militias have arrived to Red Valley area.

Free Libyan Army is leading the confrontation, while regular civilans R called when there is a need for small arms fight

Today and yesterday these tactics were useful, but when #Gard shelling starts, they retreat(small arms fighters)

[edit] Over the last couple of days it looks like coalition air strikes have been hitting a lot of Gaddafi ammo dumps and the like. One just got hit tonight:

quote:

The explosions in Mizdah's ammunition stores are so loud, that they can be heard and fire can be seen from Zintan over 80KM away

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Mar 28, 2011

# ? Mar 28, 2011 21:26

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# ? Apr 29, 2024 17:07

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister is giving a press conference:

quote:

Now Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister promises reforms including new media law, transparency law, new written constitution & national dialogue.

Too little too late I think.

Also reports of at least nine explosions so far in the east of Tripoli.

Some more details of a deal for Gaddafi to flee:

quote:

Efforts appear to be under way to offer Muammar Gaddafi a way of escape from Libya, with Italy saying it is trying to organise an African haven for him, and the US signalling it will not try to stop the dictator from fleeing.

Julian Borger and Richard Norton-Taylor report for the Guardian on a move that comes as diplomatic and military pressure on Gaddafi mounts.

On the eve of tomorrow's London conference, focused on coordinating assistance in the face of a possible humanitarian disaster, Italy offered to broker the ceasefire deal in Libya, involving asylum for Gaddafi in an African country.

"Gaddafi must understand that it would be an act of courage to say: 'I understand that I have to go'," said the Italian foreign minister, Franco Frattini. "We hope that the African Union can find a valid proposal."

More rumours that suggest Gaddafi is becoming less and less confident:

quote:

There are reports that snipers are being deployed all over Tripoli. This is mainly in the "problem" areas (Fashloom, Dahra, Tahoura)

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Mar 28, 2011

# ? Mar 28, 2011 21:51

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Qatar is definitely an interesting actor in this. To begin with one of the more obvious aspects, they own Qatalum, the world's most environmentally friendly Aluminium Smelter. To advertise said smelter, they create Al Jazeera, which has been frequently blamed by these repressive governments for inciting unrest. I think most of us here have been watching AJE to some extent as this has gone on, and they definitely have been taking an aggressive approach to covering unrest. The contrast to State News is pretty blatant. Despite being owned and run by an absolute monarchy, they're not being forced to pull in the reporting of social unrest overthrowing these regimes.

Underlying that is the probable fact that Qatar is stable, and will remain stable. The population of Qatar has skyrocketed in recent years as the importation of labor has increased. So, the number of citizens is quite low compared to the total population and the oil/natural gas wealth is absurd. Their GDP per capita is at the top of the world, their unemployment is astronomically low, their GDP growth rates astronomically high.

Unless the imported labor force rebels Qatar looks to be stable as hell. Now as an absolute monarchy it does mean their political outlook is dependent on the ruling family, however the current ones seem more than happy to use their money to tell the dictators to gently caress off whenever they want.

A large caveat to that is the GCC, Gulf Cooperative Council, the group which was asked to send troops into Bahrain (and which did so). There is little reason to suspect Qatar will be as lassiez faire toward unrest in the gulf reason, especially in regards to Shia populations.

In conclusion, Qatar is wealthy and stable enough to do whatever they want, but there's no reason to suspect that will be as beneficial, from a liberal democracy perspective, when the problems are closer to home.

farraday fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Mar 28, 2011

# ? Mar 28, 2011 22:18

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Good quality video of Misarata being bombarded. Gives you a good idea of what they face daily.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 22:52

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

farraday posted:

Qatar is definitely an interesting actor in this. To begin with one of the more obvious aspects, they own Qatalum, the world's most environmentally friendly Aluminium Smelter To advertise said smelter, they create Al Jazeera, which has been frequently blamed by these repressive governments for inciting unrest. I think most of us here have been watching AJE to some extent as this has gone on, and they definitely have been taking an aggressive approach to covering unrest. The contrast to State News is pretty blatant. Despite being owned and run by an absolute monarchy, they're not being forced to pull in the reporting of social unrest overthrowing these regimes.

Underlying that is the probable fact that Qatar is stable, and will remain stable. The population of Qatar has skyrocketed in recent years as the importation of labor has increased. So, the number of citizens is quite low compared to the total population and the oil/natural gas wealth is absurd. Their GDP per capita is at the top of the world, their unemployment is astronomically low, their GDP growth rates astronomically high.

Unless the imported labor force rebels Qatar looks to be stable as hell. Now as an absolute monarchy it does mean their political outlook is dependent on the ruling family, however the current ones seem more than happy to use their money to tell the dictators to gently caress off whenever they want.

A large caveat to that is the GCC, Gulf Cooperative Council, the group which was asked to send troops into Bahrain (and which did so). There is little reason to suspect Qatar will be as lassiez faire toward unrest in the gulf reason, especially in regards to Shia populations.

In conclusion, Qatar is wealthy and stable enough to do whatever they want, but there's no reason to suspect that will be as beneficial, from a liberal democracy perspective, when the problems are closer to home.

Here's an article that goes into more about the unlikelihood of revolt in Qatar:

quote:

Why has Qatar remained completely peaceful?
Money, and a small population. The revolutions in nearby countries, like Egypt, Yemen, and Oman, have been fueled largely by economic grievances like unemployment and rising food prices. Qatar, which has a population of around 1.5 million, approximately 200,000 of whom are Qatari citizens, has an unemployment rate of half a percent. Its GDP per capita of $145,300 is the highest in the world and its 2010 growth rate was 19.4 percent, also ranking it No. 1 in 2010. Qatar's wealth comes from oil and natural gas: The country sits on 14 percent of the world's total natural gas reserves and has 15 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. Qatar should be able to maintain its current export level of oil for 37 years.

And unlike its oil-rich neighbor Bahrain, Qatar�a majority Sunni Muslim country led by Sunni Muslims�doesn't struggle with sectarian violence. Qatar can be most aptly compared to the United Arab Emirates, which is also majority Sunni and flush with oil money. But Qatar's population is less diverse and much smaller than that of the UAE, which has recently seen some unrest: There were small protests from migrant laborers in January, and a Facebook page promises protests in the region on March 25. A cadre of intellectuals has also petitioned the government to hold open elections.

And here it is ranking the lowest in Economist's shoe-thrower index (aka possibility of revolution):

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/03/arab_unrest_0

# ? Mar 28, 2011 22:55

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Is this even plausible:

quote:

Sniper rifles captured by fighters in #Misrata function with fingerprint scan. Completely unusable

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:11

J33uk: Oct 24, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

Is this even plausible:

No. That's loving absurd.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:12

Nuclearmonkee: Jun 10, 2009

J33uk posted:

No. That's loving absurd.

What if he's a sniper from the future?

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:14

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I'm pretty sure they exist, but I can't imagine a reason why they'd be in Libya.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:15

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Couple of less crazy posts from the Guardian:

quote:

Chris McGreal reports for the Guardian from the Libyan rebels' frontline staging post at Wadi al-Ahmar, where he was told of 'dirty tricks' on the part of pro-Gaddafi troops dug in to defend the key town of Sirte.

quote:
Suliman Abdul Mula was not surprised when he saw the white flag waved by a group of Muammar Gaddafi's soldiers caught between western air strikes and the rapid advance of Libya's rebels.

"We saw they raised the white flag. We thought they no longer wanted to fight for Gaddafi. They are losing and no one in Libya wants to die for Gaddafi any more," said the 31-year-old. "But when we approached, they opened fire. It was a trick."

Several of the rebels were wounded, including one whose left arm was hanging by a string of flesh.

Another soldier with Mula estimated that there were 100 or more government soldiers in the group flying the white flag as the rebels pushed forward to within 50 miles of the strategically and politically important town of Sirte where Gaddafi was born.

The soldier said that as soon as the rebels got close enough, Gaddafi's forces shot at them with machine guns.

Mula was outraged.

"Everyone knows the white flag if for surrender. These are Gaddafi's dirty tricks," he said.

quote:

Libya's army is pouring reinforcements into Sirte, reports the Guardian's Ian Black from Muammar Gaddafi's strategic hometown.

He reports that units of regular soldiers in jeeps were driving towards the town on Monday as the frontline moved ominously closer to a key regime stronghold for what could turn out to be the decisive battle of the war.

quote:
Crowds gathered in central Martyrs Square to chant pro-regime slogans and fire bursts of machine-gun fire into the air � that bizarre Libyan ritual of celebrating reverses and expressing determination to resist. But there were signs of anxiety when an aircraft was heard far overhead. Many shops were shut.

Libyan forces are deployed outside Sirte and nervousness is evident at the makeshift roadblocks manned by police or militiamen at intervals of just a few hundred yards in some places. To the west the soldiers at a mobile radar battery � part of the country's now battered air defence system � looked especially apprehensive.

In early afternoon a convoy of 15 Toyota Land Cruisers carrying groups of fresh-looking regular soldiers moved east from Misrata where some rebels are still holding out. But there were no signs of heavy armour or artillery � perhaps because these have been easily hit in coalition air strikes in the battles for Ajdabiya, Ras Lanuf and Brega over the past few days.

Lightly armed infantrymen, backed up by militiamen and civilians driving mud-smeared cars armed en masse by the government will be a far more elusive target for allied pilots if they are involved in a battle for a sizeable town or skirmishes along the coastal road.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:15

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

Farraday and Shagelectic are right, but there's even more to it. With his actions, the Emir of Qatar is trying to position himself as "one of the good guys," to both the rest of the Arab street and to reformers in his own country. Remember when Qaddafi at the start of this said that he was "joining the protestors?" The Emir of Qatar has actually done that by taking a strong stand that Qatar supports the liberty of Arabs in other countries. This, besides being a Good Thing (TM), has great propaganda value.

TL;DR The Emir of Qatar saw the revolutionary stampede on its way and rather than letting it trample him he decided to jump in front of it and lead.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:18

IRQ: Sep 9, 2001; SUCK A DICK, DUMBSHITS!

Brown Moses posted:

Is this even plausible:

The technology to make that happen exists in theory, I don't know if it's actually been done in that form though, but plausible that Libya is using it or that it would even be desirable for the situation (it's meant to prevent cops' guns being turned on them)? No.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:19

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

Is this even plausible:

What the gently caress is this, Jagged Alliance 2?

I could see some sort of semi-biometric bullshit being used, like chip- or ring-keyed "smart" guns. The technology has been around for a while, but most sane individuals and law enforcement organizations think it still causes too many problems that safety training can easily remedy.

Note that I said "sane".

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:22

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Seems like the London meeting will be pretty important tomorrow, seems like there's been various diplomatic efforts to arrange Gaddafi's exit, and the regime seems more and more desperate.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:22

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

Brown Moses posted:

Seems like the London meeting will be pretty important tomorrow, seems like there's been various diplomatic efforts to arrange Gaddafi's exit, and the regime seems more and more desperate.

Why would they be desperate? I'd take an army of Djinn and Ghosts over the coalition any day.

EDIT: Qaddafi is literally King Solomon.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:26

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Sounds like they are throwing everything at Sirte, but are avoiding using heavy vehicles because of air strikes. Also various reporters have said they've seen ever increasing food and fuel queues in and around Tripoli, and also reporting a general sense that things are looking very bad for Gaddafi, with Libyans criticising him even in front of government minders.

Of course, he might just try to crazy it out to the finish.

[edit] Just noticed that the Tunisian government is reporting that the Libyan Foreign Minister is making an unoffical trip to the country, interesting time to be doing that.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:28

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

[edit] Just noticed that the Tunisian government is reporting that the Libyan Foreign Minister is making an unoffical trip to the country, interesting time to be doing that.

Depending on which foreign minister, this is likely old news. Al Jazeera ran into an envoy about a week ago, staying in the same hotel as Ban Ki-Moon would be arriving at. The reason is because he's trying to get a U.N. ambassador for Libya since the old ones quit. He would have to apply in-person to receive the position.

Needless to say, he wasn't happy about the AJ reporters.

# ? Mar 28, 2011 23:51

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Good news everyone

quote:

2349: The US Treasury has given the green light to sales of Libyan crude oil from rebel-held territory, saying rebels are not part of Col Gaddafi's regime and therefore are not subject to US sanctions, AP news agency reports.

No blood for oil!

Young Freud, this is a different person

quote:

2304: Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa has arrived in Tunisia for a "private visit", Tunisia's official news agency says.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:00

ArchDemon: Jan 2, 2004; People with emotional and trust issues
really piss me off.

I know it's for the best that GD gets out quickly, but I just hate that he doesn't pull a Hitler and see everything literally crashing down around him and brought to justice.

Or can we keep him in the Hague for the next billion years for war crimes?

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:04

Lascivious Sloth: Apr 26, 2008; by sebmojo

farraday posted:

Good news everyone

No blood for oil!

Young Freud, this is a different person

I wonder where the profits/taxes go? Pretty sure those oil companies get taxed a shitload and it was going to Gad.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:08

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

It's not like he'll have a particularly fun retirement. The only places that will take him in are shitholes. Well, fine, Venezuela isn't a shithole, but the other candidates are. Also, a big chunk of his assets are frozen (though he probably still has enough to live like a rajah in exile).

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:11

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Lascivious Sloth posted:

I wonder where the profits/taxes go? Pretty sure those oil companies get taxed a shitload and it was going to Gad.

I think the provisional council may be selling the oil directly? Certainly I think all the companies pulled out their people at this point.

In 18 minutes President Obama is supposed to start his speech on Libya. Predictions on what he's going to say? ("Let me be clear" does not count as a prediction)

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:13

IRQ: Sep 9, 2001; SUCK A DICK, DUMBSHITS!

Patter Song posted:

It's not like he'll have a particularly fun retirement. The only places that will take him in are shitholes. Well, fine, Venezuela isn't a shithole, but the other candidates are. Also, a big chunk of his assets are frozen (though he probably still has enough to live like a rajah in exile).

I read a few days back that he's got a shitload of gold sitting around. I guess that's one way to get around asset freezes.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:14

Nuclearmonkee: Jun 10, 2009

farraday posted:

I think the provisional council may be selling the oil directly? Certainly I think all the companies pulled out their people at this point.

In 18 minutes President Obama is supposed to start his speech on Libya. Predictions on what he's going to say? ("Let me be clear" does not count as a prediction)

Read on AJE that they are letting Qatar handle the oil business side for now.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:15

Democrazy: Oct 16, 2008; If you're not willing to lick the boot, then really why are you in politics lol? Everything is a cycle of just getting stomped on so why do you want to lose to it over and over, just submit like me, I'm very intelligent.

We TVIVing the speech tonight in this thread?

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:28

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

Patter Song posted:

It's not like he'll have a particularly fun retirement. The only places that will take him in are shitholes. Well, fine, Venezuela isn't a shithole, but the other candidates are. Also, a big chunk of his assets are frozen (though he probably still has enough to live like a rajah in exile).

There's a hilton in pretty much every country.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:29

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Speech thus far

Covering the past actions, heavy on the humanitarian wording.
Not yet getting into future actions, intentions, and goals.

Edit//
Ending with identifying what the pundits will undoubtedly call the Obama doctrine.

farraday fucked around with this message at 00:51 on Mar 29, 2011

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:41

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

right on Obama

EDIT: Though no mention of Bahrain. I wonder why?

Shageletic fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Mar 29, 2011

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:53

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Shageletic posted:

right on Obama

EDIT: Though no mention of Bahrain. I wonder why?

Do you really?

Here's the full text

http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/obamas-libya-speech-complete-text/politics/2011/03/28/18337

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:57

Spiky Ooze: Oct 27, 2005; Bernie Sanders is a friend to my planet (pictured)

click the shit outta^

farraday posted:

will undoubtedly call the Obama doctrine.

And it's basically all anyone could ask for in the US supporting self-determined democratic change in the Middle East/Africa. Pretty cool.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 00:59

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

farraday posted:

Do you really?

Here's the full text

I should have bracketed that in super IRONIC quote marks.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:00

Democrazy: Oct 16, 2008; If you're not willing to lick the boot, then really why are you in politics lol? Everything is a cycle of just getting stomped on so why do you want to lose to it over and over, just submit like me, I'm very intelligent.

So, Obama clarified that we are trying to overthrow the regime through only peaceful means, but pretty much stated that our air strikes were targeting his military and destroying it.

Not that I honestly think you can protect civilians without helping the rebels, regardless of any of the complaining from Russia or other nations.

Overall, good speech. Didn't exactly give us a hint of how long we might be saying, but other than that he hit on a lot of good points.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:01

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Democrazy posted:

So, Obama clarified that we are trying to overthrow the regime through only peaceful means, but pretty much stated that our air strikes were targeting his military and destroying it.

Not that I honestly think you can protect civilians without helping the rebels, regardless of any of the complaining from Russia or other nations.

Overall, good speech. Didn't exactly give us a hint of how long we might be saying, but other than that he hit on a lot of good points.

What he said was a little more direct than that.

Basically, we will continue blowing up Gaddafi's poo poo until the Libyan people overthrow him.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:08

IRQ: Sep 9, 2001; SUCK A DICK, DUMBSHITS!

farraday posted:

What he said was a little more direct than that.

Basically, we will continue blowing up Gaddafi's poo poo until the Libyan people overthrow him.

Yeah, the way he kept talking about it like it was a foregone conclusion tells me we're going to just keep bombing Khadaffi until the rebels roll into Tripoli.

But who knows what France or the UK are willing to do. How's the narrative working out for Sarkozy over in France anyway?

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:13

evilweasel: Aug 24, 2002

farraday posted:

What he said was a little more direct than that.

Basically, we will continue blowing up Gaddafi's poo poo until the Libyan people overthrow him.

But, in one of those hilarious politicalspeak things, we are not after "regime change", it's just something that's going to happen because we keep bombing his poo poo and then the rebels overthrow him. But we are not after regime change.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:16

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

evilweasel posted:

But, in one of those hilarious politicalspeak things, we are not after "regime change", it's just something that's going to happen because we keep bombing his poo poo and then the rebels overthrow him. But we are not after regime change.

He's trying to thread a needle. The goal of the US is regime change and he said so, however we will not pursue that militarily in the sense that our military will not change the regime.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:18

Paradox Personified: Mar 15, 2010; SoroScrew

evilweasel posted:

But, in one of those hilarious politicalspeak things, we are not after "regime change", it's just something that's going to happen because we keep bombing his poo poo and then the rebels overthrow him. But we are not after regime change.

Gaddaffi could always change his mind and do what the people ask of him! :haw:

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:19

FuriousxGeorge: Aug 8, 2007; We've been the best team all year.

They're just finding out.

farraday posted:

He's trying to thread a needle. The goal of the US is regime change and he said so, however we will not pursue that militarily in the sense that our military will not change the regime.

Aside from destroying the military of the regime, yeah. I still don't support intervention, but I think Obama has handled the whole thing about as well as it could be handled if this was the choice he was gonna make.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:20

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

FuriousxGeorge posted:

Aside from destroying the military of the regime, yeah.

Yes, there is absolutely an element of "I'm gonna swing my arms here and if your regime collapses it's your own fault for your populace hating you."

In other news.

The Prime Minister of Bahrain has denied on his Twitter page that Kuwait will be leading talks between the government and opposition. Kuwait has responded by defriending him on facebook and poking Saudi Arabia to ask him to step in and make him talk.

farraday fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Mar 29, 2011

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:23

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# ? Apr 29, 2024 17:07

Carnival47: Jul 21, 2004

evilweasel posted:

But, in one of those hilarious politicalspeak things, we are not after "regime change", it's just something that's going to happen because we keep bombing his poo poo and then the rebels overthrow him. But we are not after regime change.

Yeah I'm having trouble working out the logic in how "regime change" is defined in this speech. If Obama believes that "broadening our military mission to include regime change would be a mistake", then what exactly is the primary objective of this "No Fly Zone"? Providing what is essentially tactical air support for the rebel advance towards Tripoli implies that regime change is the goal of this military mission.

# ? Mar 29, 2011 01:25

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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