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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I've just done a follow up to my earlier post on the FSA's equipment, The Even More Increasingly Well Armed Free Syrian Army.

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FeculentWizardTits
Aug 31, 2001

Xandu posted:

What's with his Abd al Rahman callout?

Ultras Lazio posted:

....what about that thing about Omar Abdel-Rahman as well?

From al-Jazeera: "On the other hand, in a remark sure to worry Western leaders, Morsi also promised to work to free Omar Abdel Rahman, the Egyptian cleric currently serving a life sentence in the United States for planning the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center. His pledge was most likely a sop to the Salafi groups which have made Abdel Rahman's release a prominent issue."

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Spakstik posted:

From al-Jazeera: "On the other hand, in a remark sure to worry Western leaders, Morsi also promised to work to free Omar Abdel Rahman, the Egyptian cleric currently serving a life sentence in the United States for planning the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center. His pledge was most likely a sop to the Salafi groups which have made Abdel Rahman's release a prominent issue."

Yeah, it's not going to go over well in the West and especially the US.

Brown Moses posted:

I've just done a follow up to my earlier post on the FSA's equipment, The Even More Increasingly Well Armed Free Syrian Army.

So when do they finally start finding/getting the chemical weapons?

Ultras Lazio
May 22, 2010

by Y Kant Ozma Post

Spakstik posted:

From al-Jazeera: "On the other hand, in a remark sure to worry Western leaders, Morsi also promised to work to free Omar Abdel Rahman, the Egyptian cleric currently serving a life sentence in the United States for planning the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center. His pledge was most likely a sop to the Salafi groups which have made Abdel Rahman's release a prominent issue."

He is a deluded con. Nothing but a MB figleaf. A tool that only the naive can believe in.

The cleric will do 100 years and the Salafis can gently caress off.
Now and forever.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I've just had to email the Guardian to correct a massive gaff they've made in their latest article on Syria, At Syria's border, after months of waiting, the weapons arrive

quote:

Before the officers leave they habitually offload videos from their mobiles, which are downloaded by a computer-savvy member of the FSA and soon uploaded to the opposition network of thousands of videos that have chronicled the horrors of the past 16 months.

One video dropped off last month depicted a scene of unimaginable horror. A man in military uniform stood above two bound men with a chainsaw. He taunted them about their imminent death and said their only God was Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Then he put the chainsaw to work, decapitating one man in a series of strokes, his blood splattering the traumatised man next to him as he waited his fate.


"They are criminals, monsters," said one of the rebels in the room as the video was played. "How can anyone do that to another human being?"

Problem is, the video he refers to isn't from Syria at all, it's a Mexican drug cartel execution video that's been posted on Syrian Youtube channels with a fake description.

Evil Fluffy
Jul 13, 2009

Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

When this is all over you should post a graph of visits-per-day to your blog before-during-after the conflict.

Spakstik posted:

From al-Jazeera: "On the other hand, in a remark sure to worry Western leaders, Morsi also promised to work to free Omar Abdel Rahman, the Egyptian cleric currently serving a life sentence in the United States for planning the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center. His pledge was most likely a sop to the Salafi groups which have made Abdel Rahman's release a prominent issue."

Even Obama winning reelection and being a lame duck isn't going to make this happen. If there's a short list of people the US would never show mercy to I would imagine this guy will be on it.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Evil Fluffy posted:

When this is all over you should post a graph of visits-per-day to your blog before-during-after the conflict.

Since I started in March I've had
April - 10223
May - 16705
June - 30040

I've also gained about 600 Twitter followers in the same time, up to 882, 81 in the last week, and I'm getting mentioned on more news sites now. I get quite a bit of contact from journalists at the moment as well, so hopefully I won't run out of things to post.

FeculentWizardTits
Aug 31, 2001

gfanikf posted:

Yeah, it's not going to go over well in the West and especially the US.

Ultras Lazio posted:

He is a deluded con. Nothing but a MB figleaf. A tool that only the naive can believe in.

The cleric will do 100 years and the Salafis can gently caress off.
Now and forever.

Evil Fluffy posted:

Even Obama winning reelection and being a lame duck isn't going to make this happen. If there's a short list of people the US would never show mercy to I would imagine this guy will be on it.

While I'm hardly an expert, it seems like he's just throwing the salafis a bone. He'll probably make a few more token gestures towards getting Rahman freed, but if he ever seriously pursues it then I'll eat my hat. Besides the hefty chunk of change that we give Egypt in foreign aid, the Egyptian armed forces use a considerable amount of American military hardware that we provide spare parts and services for; in the unlikely event that Morsi decides to poo poo all over U.S.-Egyptian relations because one cleric, he's going to risk losing not only $1.6B in Ameribux but also access to the equipment needed to keep his army up and running.

In the event that I'm wrong, however, I have picked out a particularly delicious looking Nats cap.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
If the US won't release Pollard, it's not releasing Rahman and that's obvious and I doubt the MB will pursue it, I just thought it was odd that he felt the need to mention it in the speech. I can't imagine it plays that well to the non-Salafis, even though most Egyptians I've read thought it was overall a great speech.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
The content's gated and I'm too lazy to find a work-around, but this sounds intereseting.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304830704577497081567553846.html?mod=wsj_share_tweet

quote:

U.S. intelligence indicates that a Turkish warplane shot down by Syrian forces was most likely hit by shore-based antiaircraft guns while it was inside Syrian airspace, American officials said, a finding in tune with Syria's account and at odds with Turkey.

The Turkish government, which moved tanks to the Syrian border after the June 22 incident, says the debris fell in Syrian waters, but maintains its fighter was shot down without warning in international airspace. Ankara also has said the jet was hit too far from Syrian territory to have been engaged by an antiaircraft gun.
Damascus has said it shot down the plane with an antiaircraft battery with an effective range of about 1.5 miles.

"We see no indication that it was shot down by a surface-to-air missile" as Turkey says, said a senior defense official. Officials declined to specify the sources of their information. The senior U.S. defense official cautioned that much remains unknown about the incident.

A Turkish official said he wasn't aware of the American doubts, and reiterated the government's position that a Syrian missile downed the plane in international airspace.

The Turkish government has scheduled a special meeting for Saturday morning on Syria. A spokesman for the prime minister said the U.S. intelligence on the incident would likely be discussed.

The downing of the jet spurred fears of a widening regional conflict and led the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, following a presentation on Tuesday by Turkey, to condemn Syria's action.

The use of antiaircraft fire would suggest the Turkish plane was flying low to the ground, and slowly, U.S. officials said—though Syria said the jet was traveling at 480 miles an hour.

If hit by antiaircraft fire, the jet likely came closer to the Syrian shoreline than Turkey says, U.S. officials said.

The plane's pilots haven't been found, and the Turkish Navy has continued to search for them. U.S. officials say they believe the pilots perished.

Some current and former American officials believe Ankara has been testing Syrian defenses. The version of the Turkish F-4 Phantom that was shot down typically carries surveillance equipment, according to U.S. defense officials.

A former senior U.S. official who worked closely with Turkey said he believed the flight's course was meant to test Syria's response. "You think that the airplane was there by mistake?" the former official said.

"These countries are all testing how fast they get picked up and how fast someone responds," said a senior U.S. official. "It's part of training."

The Turkish official said the plane wasn't on a surveillance mission. "All NATO members have condemned the Syrian hostile act and have supported Turkey," the official said.

The emerging discrepancies could prove embarrassing to Ankara and strain continuing discussions between the U.S. and Turkey, a NATO ally that shares a long border with Syria.

Turkey occupies a critical role in the U.S. and Western strategy for dealing with the Syrian crisis. American officials and defense analysts say the U.S. approach depends largely on Turkey's willingness to keep pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

NATO officials said Turkey's presentation on the incident on Tuesday was very detailed, but diplomats didn't closely question the Turks on their version of events. The U.S. backed Turkey and, American officials said, pushed NATO to issue a statement sharply condemning Syria.

The incident has put NATO in a tough spot. Alliance members are eager to back Ankara, but don't want to be dragged into a military conflict in Syria.

If the plane had been struck by a missile, a senior military official said, it would be an indication that Damascus had authorized the action. But the use of antiaircraft fire may mean a local commander decided on his own initiative to fire at the Turkish plane, according to officials and analysts.

U.S. defense officials said they weren't alarmed by Turkey's movement of forces to its border with Syria. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, praised Turkey's "very measured" approach. "I've asked them, and they are not seeking to be provocative," Gen. Dempsey said.

The U.S.-Turkish relationship is unlikely to be affected by the apparent discrepancies in accounts of the downing of the jet. Cooperation between Ankara and Washington has grown closer in recent months, after a period of significant strain in 2009 and 2010.

That marks a turnaround for Turkey, which 18 months ago moved to cultivate relations and trade with neighboring Muslim regimes, including Mr. Assad's, while downgrading ties with former ally Israel, raising concerns in Washington.

The revolutions of the Arab Spring, however, upended that policy. In a major change, Turkey agreed last fall to house a NATO missile-defense system, which was designed by the U.S. to contain Iran.

Turkish analysts said the debate in Turkey is now focused on the escalating tensions along the country's 565-mile border with Syria.

"What's important for most Turks is that the government has been seen to respond by boosting troop capacity on the border, which will further pressure Assad," said Atilla Yesilada, a partner at Istanbul-based political risk consultancy Istanbul Analytics.

edit: got it

Xandu fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Jun 30, 2012

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
Hey it's another casus belli we'll never know the truth about!

As for Morsi, for all we know he is having screaming arguments with SCAF about US influence right now.

Xandu you're ripping off Murdoch! :negative:

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
Don't worry, he'll come for Brown Moses before he comes after me.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
The 'senior US defense official' sounds credible - although they could be mistaken in their analysis, they have no reason to defend Syria. That would certainly explain Turkey's anxiousness in recovering the jet debris before Syria. Also why NATO response has been lukewarm so far.

This is not to say that Turkey is lying, but leaks from their main ally certainly casts doubts on their story. Especially given the history of Turkish army vs. elected governments.

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
Any chance of getting a run-down of how things are developing in each of the 14 Syrian governorates? From what I gather, most of the conflict is focused in western Syria (for obvious reasons), with Idlib, Hama and Homs bearing the brunt of the fighting, but I'm not sure what's the deal with the other provinces. I mean some months ago there was this thing about Aleppo being derided by the rest of the opposition as a bunch of accommodating jerks who wouldn't lift a finger against the regime, more out of indifference than out of loyalty, but apparently that's no longer A Thing?

az jan jananam
Sep 6, 2011
HI, I'M HARDCORE SAX HERE TO DROP A NICE JUICY TURD OF A POST FROM UP ON HIGH

SexyBlindfold posted:

Any chance of getting a run-down of how things are developing in each of the 14 Syrian governorates? From what I gather, most of the conflict is focused in western Syria (for obvious reasons), with Idlib, Hama and Homs bearing the brunt of the fighting, but I'm not sure what's the deal with the other provinces. I mean some months ago there was this thing about Aleppo being derided by the rest of the opposition as a bunch of accommodating jerks who wouldn't lift a finger against the regime, more out of indifference than out of loyalty, but apparently that's no longer A Thing?

Death toll by governorate, according to activists



AJE has a map here: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2012/02/201225111654512841.html

az jan jananam fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Jun 30, 2012

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
So when do we expect people to start getting access to Syria's Chemical weapons, because we know Syria has sizable amounts.

Section 31
Mar 4, 2012
It is said to be protest in the Palestinian Yarmouk camp in Damascus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypWbD3ao9v0

gfanikf posted:

So when do we expect people to start getting access to Syria's Chemical weapons, because we know Syria has sizable amounts.
I think the stashes are kept and locked away somewhere and neither side (Assadists or FSA) are willing to use them. The repercussions of using them can be fatal and erode any support for the side that use them. There are "rumours" about chemical weapons being used before, but so far those seems to remain nothing more than rumours.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Section 31 posted:

It is said to be protest in the Palestinian Yarmouk camp in Damascus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypWbD3ao9v0

I think the stashes are kept and locked away somewhere and neither side (Assadists or FSA) are willing to use them. The repercussions of using them can be fatal and erode any support for the side that use them. There are "rumours" about chemical weapons being used before, but so far those seems to remain nothing more than rumours.

I don't think intentional use on the Assad side as it becomes suicide to them, however I could see accidental use by rebels no knowing what they were using or from an attack on a facility releasing things.

It does beg the question where is it being kept and who has the keys besides Assad?

Section 31
Mar 4, 2012

Section 31
Mar 4, 2012

gfanikf posted:

I don't think intentional use on the Assad side as it becomes suicide to them, however I could see accidental use by rebels no knowing what they were using or from an attack on a facility releasing things.

It does beg the question where is it being kept and who has the keys besides Assad?
If I have to make a guess, it'll be kept by the most loyal units to Assad -namely the Maher's 4th Division.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

What's the context here?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Section 31 posted:

It is said to be protest in the Palestinian Yarmouk camp in Damascus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypWbD3ao9v0

I think the stashes are kept and locked away somewhere and neither side (Assadists or FSA) are willing to use them. The repercussions of using them can be fatal and erode any support for the side that use them. There are "rumours" about chemical weapons being used before, but so far those seems to remain nothing more than rumours.

I haven't seen any videos of it, and more importantly, Brown Moses hasn't mentioned anything supporting those rumors as far as I know. Were legitimate chemical weapons used in Homs or something, one would assume there would be plenty of evidence supporting it, considering there would be an immediate effort to document it due to the repercussions you touched on. I'm calling bullshit for the moment on those. I know you weren't insinuating that the rumors were true, but I've heard them as well.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

gfanikf posted:

I don't think intentional use on the Assad side as it becomes suicide to them, however I could see accidental use by rebels no knowing what they were using or from an attack on a facility releasing things.

It does beg the question where is it being kept and who has the keys besides Assad?

It's really unlikely that anyone would accidentally use them, it's about as likely as you breaking into a chemical warehouse and accidentally drinking a bottle of deadly poison thinking that it was water.

The biggest threat would come from some faction like Al Qaida stealing some and using it for terror attacks in Syria or elsewhere, or some enterprising people putting them for sale. Not that that would bring forth a Tom Clancyesque armageddon, though. Using chemical weapons isn't that straight forward, you should have some kind of delivery method like helicopters or artillery or something, some idea of the winds etc. It's just so much easier to do it the old fashioned way.

az jan jananam
Sep 6, 2011
HI, I'M HARDCORE SAX HERE TO DROP A NICE JUICY TURD OF A POST FROM UP ON HIGH

Xandu posted:

What's the context here?

Sudan. The Sudanese opposition were nicknamed "elbowlickers" for the futility of opposing Bashir and they're reclaiming it.

Uncle Jam
Aug 20, 2005

Perfect

Nenonen posted:

It's really unlikely that anyone would accidentally use them, it's about as likely as you breaking into a chemical warehouse and accidentally drinking a bottle of deadly poison thinking that it was water.

The biggest threat would come from some faction like Al Qaida stealing some and using it for terror attacks in Syria or elsewhere, or some enterprising people putting them for sale. Not that that would bring forth a Tom Clancyesque armageddon, though. Using chemical weapons isn't that straight forward, you should have some kind of delivery method like helicopters or artillery or something, some idea of the winds etc. It's just so much easier to do it the old fashioned way.

I think they could be accidentally opened, anyway. They could just be stored in metal canisters which get out of the warehouse, lost track of, and end up in the hands of a scrap metal dealer. This is pretty much what happens every so often with radiation sources from hospitals and a bunch of people get radiation sickness or die.

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

FYI Brown Moses there's a thread on Metafilter all about you and your work.

uncleTomOfFinland
May 25, 2008

Uncle Jam posted:

I think they could be accidentally opened, anyway. They could just be stored in metal canisters which get out of the warehouse, lost track of, and end up in the hands of a scrap metal dealer. This is pretty much what happens every so often with radiation sources from hospitals and a bunch of people get radiation sickness or die.

It might be less dangerous than one might think if they are modern enough to be binary chemical weapons that have two or more precursors that wont get combined until the munition is actually used the way it is intended to.

Though I do imagine most of the precursor chemicals are not too safe to be around either.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Redgrendel2001 posted:

FYI Brown Moses there's a thread on Metafilter all about you and your work.

I just noticed that, thanks to whoever wrote it, it's a really nice piece, got me lots of views on the blog over night as well.

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?
The Future of Journalism, today. Random citizen's upload Youtube video, someone else on the internet then provides analysis and coverage. You're going to end up getting paid for to do it.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

My wife certainly hopes so. Metafilter seems to have finally attracted people who actually make comments on my post, even if it's to tell me who wrong I am.

The Guardian got back to me, they are going to remove the passages I've highlighted from the article.

Section 31
Mar 4, 2012

Xandu posted:

What's the context here?

az jan jananam posted:

Sudan. The Sudanese opposition were nicknamed "elbowlickers" for the futility of opposing Bashir and they're reclaiming it.
Yes, Sudan. Omar al-Bashir supposedly said that it's easier to "lick your elbow" than to overthrow him, hence the photo.

Also, today (30 June) is the 23th anniversary of the coup that brought Omar al-Bashir to power in Sudan.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Section 31 posted:

Yes, Sudan. Omar al-Bashir supposedly said that it's easier to "lick your elbow" than to overthrow him, hence the photo.

We should be grateful that he didn't use some other hard-to-lick analogy.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=130306

Good piece by Gregory Gause on why the academic community failed to predict the Arab Spring. It reminds me of something I read w/r/t intelligence analysis about how it's always easier to predict the status quo remaining the same than some massive game-changer actually happening.

He makes a great point on the significant failure of area experts to understand the role of the army in places like Tunisia or Egypt as distinct from the political regime and on the role of new media.

One major Middle East IR thesis that hasn't been disproven by the last year is that of oil rentierism. Other than Libya, which had significant differences from the other oil-producing states, revolutions have not been sucessful in the oil-rich states.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Brown Moses posted:

My wife certainly hopes so. Metafilter seems to have finally attracted people who actually make comments on my post, even if it's to tell me who wrong I am.

You certainly deserve to get paid for this. We here at SA have been getting the news before any of the major news channels had it and often of a better quality as well and for a very long time now.

Section 31
Mar 4, 2012

Nenonen posted:

We should be grateful that he didn't use some other hard-to-lick analogy.
Well, I for one appreciated him for inventing an interesting "meme" with his speech. Speaking of speech, does anyone have the full translated version of Morsi inaguration speech?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Next I might do a write up of the situation in Aleppo, seems there's a lot going on, and it's one of the few areas journalists can roam freely. To me it seems there's a de facto safe zone former there along the Turkish border, and there's reports that army bases in the region have been captured by the FSA, which won't make Assad's job there any easier.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
Morsi just gave a good speech in Cairo University, the one he did yesterday was way better but this one had one thing that set it apart was that it said in a thinly veiled version of "We thank SCAF for it's efforts, now gently caress off back you your barracks", the look of Tantawi then and there wasnt exactly pleased.

man the balancing act he has to do, he had to swear the oath of presidency three times to please everyone. First in Tahrir to please the people, Then in the High constitution court to please the army, and then in Cairo university in front of both parliament and senate and in front of everyone important and the families of the people killed in tahrir.

Oh and he also said that Egypt will support both the Palestinians and the Syrians and told the syrian regime to stop shedding blood.

Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Jun 30, 2012

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Nenonen posted:

It's really unlikely that anyone would accidentally use them, it's about as likely as you breaking into a chemical warehouse and accidentally drinking a bottle of deadly poison thinking that it was water.


What are you basing this on? I'm not particularly knowledgeable myself/either, but I was under the opinion that chemical shells didn't look much different from standard shells and it was mostly being properly marked and/or stored that would tell them apart to the untrained eye.

Zedsdeadbaby
Jun 14, 2008

You have been called out, in the ways of old.
Why does the military in Egypt want to run the place anyway? Are they not happy enough just doing their supposed job, or is it purely just out of greed?

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Section 31
Mar 4, 2012

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

Why does the military in Egypt want to run the place anyway? Are they not happy enough just doing their supposed job, or is it purely just out of greed?
Because their American masters told them they've been running the show in Egypt since 1952 (Nasser and co. officers coup). I doubt it's something they'll give up easily.

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