Zedsdeadbaby posted:Why does the military in Egypt want to run the place anyway? Are they not happy enough just doing their supposed job, or is it purely just out of greed? They own something like 40% of the economy.
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Jun 30, 2012 14:51
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Well, if Morsi's setting the tone like this, then they're going to have a drat hard time. An elected government is just inherently going to have more goodwill than the military autocracy. Eventually it'll come to a point where the military either stages a coup or accepts a lesser role. Though it needn't be all bad for them. Look at the PRC: the PLA used to hold huge swathes of the economy under its direct control, but over time the government has forced them to divest all of these. But the military officers who ran things before still do, they just were discharged into fat civilian jobs. I don't think something like that would be out of the question for SCAF if they were to accept civilian supremacy.
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Jun 30, 2012 15:32
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Comstar posted:The Future of Journalism, today. Random citizen's upload Youtube video, someone else on the internet then provides analysis and coverage. You're going to end up getting paid for to do it. I agree that Brown Moses does a hell of a job and deserves a role somewhere, but regardless, this is a pretty exciting time for news media when careful analysis of data anyone can access is becoming a reliable way to provide coverage of current events. It may not mean much for more undeveloped places like Sudan where there aren't 5 YouTube videos of every event that happens in the country, but the fact that freelancers can actually provide coverage that is equally or more detailed than the big organizations with a much bigger wallet should be interesting to see become a bigger part of our culture.
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Jun 30, 2012 15:37
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And meanwhile in the West people are fighting tooth and nail to limit the freedoms of the internet and making it illegal to film cops. These same people would probably praise a Syrian for filming the events and posting them online too.
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Jun 30, 2012 16:25
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Jarmak posted:What are you basing this on? I'm not particularly knowledgeable myself/either, but I was under the opinion that chemical shells didn't look much different from standard shells and it was mostly being properly marked and/or stored that would tell them apart to the untrained eye. Exactly. You wouldn't break into a chemical warehouse and accidentally drink poison, either. It's not something that would happen by mistake.
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Jun 30, 2012 16:42
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Nenonen posted:Exactly. You wouldn't break into a chemical warehouse and accidentally drink poison, either. It's not something that would happen by mistake. Yes but you're making the assumption that they are and will remain stored properly and well marked. Wasn't there an instance of Bush parading around the "found WMDs" in the beginning the Iraq war which turned out to be just a pallet of chemical rockets in the back corner of some forgotten bunker? edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction I know its wikipedia, but it states we've recovered approximately 500 rounds containing mustard and sarin gas, mostly degraded to the point of being unusable, that seem to be assumed "forgotten about". Jarmak fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Jun 30, 2012 |
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Jun 30, 2012 17:34
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Jarmak posted:Wasn't there an instance of Bush parading around the "found WMDs" in the beginning the Iraq war which turned out to be just a pallet of chemical rockets in the back corner of some forgotten bunker? I don't think so, because then they would still be saying "found WMDs" I'm pretty sure the rockets were a type that COULD carry chemicals, but which weren't carrying them at all.
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Jun 30, 2012 17:37
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There's a general safety rule "if you don't know what something does, don't use it". While it is possible for some illiterate peasant to just take an artillery shell and use it while ignoring all the warning labels, I find this very unlikely. The shells are marked and colour coded according to their function, and if you want to kill enemy troops then you want to be sure that you're firing high explosive rather than non-lethal shells like smoke or flare, for instance. I don't know if the rebels even have any indirect fire support detachments. In Libya they used helicopter rocket pods put on pickup trucks for "artillery"... 
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Jun 30, 2012 18:08
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Nenonen posted:
The Syrian rebels are probably better off not emulating that particular artillery system! I'd be shocked if the Libyan rebels even managed to hit a single target with those things. I wouldn't be surprised if they have some mortars though. They're portable, effective and relatively easy to use. I would figure some defectors would have brought some along with them by this point.
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Jun 30, 2012 18:10
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I've seen virtually no evidence of any FSA artillery, bar a few homemade rockets and mortars, and even a giant slingshot. One group has access to mortars, but not many of them by the looks of it.
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Jun 30, 2012 18:16
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Mortars would be useful in many ways, but their effective use (=to hit things from cover) requires some degree of training, organization, planning and logistics that it might be more useful to just use RPG's. Though even random indirect fire can be psychologically effective. Here's Libyan rebels from the civil war firing a medium mortar. Not huge ammo stacks... 
Nenonen fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Jun 30, 2012 |
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Jun 30, 2012 18:26
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Brown Moses posted:I've seen virtually no evidence of any FSA artillery, bar a few homemade rockets and mortars, and even a giant slingshot. One group has access to mortars, but not many of them by the looks of it. I'd be shocked if they didn't have mortars of some variety in large numbers, they're both stupidly easy to manufacturer and stupidly common. If they can get RPGs they should be able to get light mortars. edit: it doesn't take that much training to use a mortar system, give me 10 minutes and I can have a guy accurately hitting things within 2k with a 60mm on handheld mode, about an hour to double that range with a tripod
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Jun 30, 2012 19:09
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Jarmak posted:I'd be shocked if they didn't have mortars of some variety in large numbers, they're both stupidly easy to manufacturer and stupidly common. If they can get RPGs they should be able to get light mortars. Isn't a mortar standard equipment for like every platoon in the world?
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Jun 30, 2012 19:19
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Lawman 0 posted:Isn't a mortar standard equipment for like every platoon in the world? No. Brits have been using 51mm light mortars as a platoon support weapon, but those are basically glorified grenade launchers rather than full-fledged artillery pieces. The lightest that Syrians have is 82mm but 120mm mortars are more common with the mechanized units, 12 in each battalion. Jarmak posted:it doesn't take that much training to use a mortar system, give me 10 minutes and I can have a guy accurately hitting things within 2k with a 60mm on handheld mode, about an hour to double that range with a tripod I highly doubt that, Syrians don't even use any light mortars. Without experienced crews and forward observers and good communications and logistics you're going to be much less accurate than direct fire weapons like recoilless rifles that can make every shell hit the target area. And when defending in a city, you really don't want to miss the target at all because you might shell your own guys. Or civilians.
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Jun 30, 2012 19:47
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I've seen maybe 5 videos of mortars being used by the FSA, all apparently from the same group in Homs. They do have a poo poo load of RPGs though, although that varies all over the country.
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Jun 30, 2012 19:53
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A lot of the FSA are army deserters though, so you'd assume they have the training to use the Syrian military equipment, which is also the majority of their equipment. For mortars, the logistics and communications seems to be the bottleneck to me.
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Jun 30, 2012 19:56
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So what of the new Annan plan? There seems to be a rock solid consensus among the Security Council that Assad should or should not stay in power. I'm convinced that this one has more credibility among Syrian sides than any of the previous peace plans.
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Jun 30, 2012 20:58
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Personally I think there's no hope of it working as the FSA are doing much better now, receiving covert support from Qatar and Saudi Arabia via Turkey, and control much of the Turkish border in the northwest of Syria. It's one thing for the SNC to agree to the plan, but it's another to stop the FSA actually fighting, it's not like they have a proper command structure. Another blogger who obsesses over videos from Syria spotted something interesting in a video, a Belgian made AT weapon, and makes some interesting observations about Belgian weapons appearing in Syria.
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Jun 30, 2012 21:12
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I would guess the most likely source for random Belgian-made weapons is actually Libya. http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/tracking-belgian-weapons-in-libya/ A scattering of weapons of a variety of types seems more likely to be bleed over from another conflict than foreign support which, my understanding, generally tries to limit types to make it easier to provide logistical support.
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Jun 30, 2012 21:20
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Nenonen posted:There's a general safety rule "if you don't know what something does, don't use it". While it is possible for some illiterate peasant to just take an artillery shell and use it while ignoring all the warning labels, I find this very unlikely. The shells are marked and colour coded according to their function, and if you want to kill enemy troops then you want to be sure that you're firing high explosive rather than non-lethal shells like smoke or flare, for instance. People have jammed screwdrivers into radiation sources to take out cobalt before, with the trefoil present and everything. Here are some chemical weapons in a stockpile  Who knows if they are marked and color coded, unless we have images of Syrian chemical stockpiles floating around somewhere.
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Jun 30, 2012 21:31
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Robert Fisk is saying that the new deal will let Bashir keep in power for years.quote:President Bashar al-Assad of Syria may last far longer than his opponents believe – and with the tacit acceptance of Western leaders anxious to secure new oil routes to Europe via Syria before the fall of the regime. According to a source intimately involved in the possible transition from Baath party power, the Americans, Russians and Europeans are also putting together an agreement that would permit Assad to remain leader of Syria for at least another two years in return for political concessions to Iran and Saudi Arabia in both Lebanon and Iraq. http://www.independent.co.uk/opinio...rs-7897087.html
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Jun 30, 2012 21:48
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Being right next door to Iraq and with the border being what it is, it's not really surprising to see anything showing up in Syria and it's really hard to determine a trend from what is ultimately a small sample size of pictures and videos. If we start seeing hundreds of fighters into multiple locations rocking out with pimped out FS2000's or P90's then yeah, someone is probably supplying them. At the same time, during the Libyan conflict there were also corners of the internet that were jumping to the conclusion that the presence of FAL's was evidence that Belgium was secretly supplying arms to the opposition. In reality, FAL's show up just about everywhere, especially in African conflicts. The chemical weapons situation does have the potential to be pretty scary. I doubt the more sanctioned parts of the FSA or government troops would use them, as they're just unpredictable and would bring a wave of condemnation that makes it not worth the bother. At the same time, the longer and bigger this conflict becomes makes it more likely that you'll have actors enter the picture who really don't care about practicality or condemnation. Civil wars really do suck for everyone involved. On a lighter note, there's a rather comedic pattern that's emerged everytime Hillary and Lavrov get together these days. You can browse Google news and the stories have the same pattern: The conference ends, Hillary announces that Russia is now on board and sees that Assad can't stay. And if you follow the timestamps, about ten minutes later you get the rebuttal from Lavrov saying that no agreement of that kind was made. I wonder just how frustrating that must be for her. Edit: Regarding the post above... quote:is part of a new understanding in the West which may accept Assad’s presidency in return for an agreement that prevents a further decline into civil war. Just how civil war-y do they expect it to get? All hell is pretty much breaking loose already. Does it have to get to Rwandan kill counts before they realize that this isn't going away? Edit 2: And the post below pretty much backs that up. Dear god what an awful situation. J33uk fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Jun 30, 2012 |
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Jun 30, 2012 21:49
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syria.avi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Sp6ro8PHE
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Jun 30, 2012 21:51
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J33uk posted:Edit 2: And the post below pretty much backs that up. Dear god what an awful situation. syria2-1.avi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbxAsVvw2xg Syria2-2.avi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVYzDF7JmXc
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Jun 30, 2012 21:54
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On the plus side she has good trigger discipline. Any idea what's she singing?
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Jun 30, 2012 22:17
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Oh god...I had to x out of that one. Almost as bad as seeing a dead body.
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Jun 30, 2012 22:24
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At least it isn't loaded, eh?
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Jun 30, 2012 22:40
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Fangz posted:At least it isn't loaded, eh? Doesn't mean one isn't chambered.
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Jun 30, 2012 23:25
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Lawman 0 posted:Isn't a mortar standard equipment for like every platoon in the world? Yes quote:No. Brits have been using 51mm light mortars as a platoon support weapon, but those are basically glorified grenade launchers rather than full-fledged artillery pieces. The lightest that Syrians have is 82mm but 120mm mortars are more common with the mechanized units, 12 in each battalion. First, no, mortar rounds are not the same as grenade launcher rounds, even if it is a small mortar with a similar diameter. Secondly the Brits have been replacing their 51s with 60s like we (the US) use. Also mortars are not artillery, artillery is artillery, so glad you could clear that up. quote:I highly doubt that, Syrians don't even use any light mortars. Without experienced crews and forward observers and good communications and logistics you're going to be much less accurate than direct fire weapons like recoilless rifles that can make every shell hit the target area. And when defending in a city, you really don't want to miss the target at all because you might shell your own guys. Or civilians. Again, what are you basing this on? Cause I've operated on both ends of these weapons systems more times then I care to count and from my personal experience everything you post on the topic is dead wrong. All you need for forward observation and coms is some rear end in a top hat with view to the other side of the berm you're hiding behind telling you how far and what direction, there's a loving compass and leveling bubble built into the tripod. Logistics? you mean some grunts throwing extra mortar rounds in their bags when they're moving out? Ya you can be more effective if you have a nice mortar pit and some guy in an observation post with a GPS and a radio, but you don't need any of that poo poo to be much, much, more valuable then a loving RPG. Edit: Also following the US model 12 per battalion IS ~1 per platoon. Jarmak fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Jun 30, 2012 |
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Jun 30, 2012 23:32
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Gotta love the kid taking the bomb away from the younger kid because he wouldn't wave it so he could wave it himself.
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Jun 30, 2012 23:44
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Jarmak posted:Yes All this, plus you guys are grossly underestimating the ingenuity of a force that I've seen turn full sized cars into remote control bombs, and slingshot pop bottle bombs. They have Motorola radios, they have mortars, they have mortar rounds, and they have internet access. They'll figure it out.
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Jun 30, 2012 23:56
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The New York Times has started an archive of selected videos, inviting people to provide more information about the videos they post. In one example they even refer to me and my blog.
Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Jul 1, 2012 |
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Jul 1, 2012 00:00
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Brown Moses posted:The New York Times has started an archive of selected videos, inviting people to provide more information about the videos they post. In one example they even refer to me and my blog. Let me know if there is anything else you think should be highlighted in the Metafilter thread. I just started following this thread last night so I don't know much of what else you have been up to besides the most recent stuff.
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Jul 1, 2012 00:09
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Jarmak posted:Again, what are you basing this on? Cause I've operated on both ends of these weapons systems more times then I care to count and from my personal experience everything you post on the topic is dead wrong. All you need for forward observation and coms is some rear end in a top hat with view to the other side of the berm you're hiding behind telling you how far and what direction, there's a loving compass and leveling bubble built into the tripod. Logistics? you mean some grunts throwing extra mortar rounds in their bags when they're moving out? I'm afraid we aren't going to agree here. I don't believe you could teach civilians how to read compasses and mils and maps in an hour or even a day, that stuff needs to be practised more. Cooperation between the observing and firing elements is also something that needs to be practised. Sure, if you're limiting it to line of sight role then you're just limited by understanding the mechanics of the weapon system. But that already limits the usefulness quite a bit. You do need logistics to support any kind of proper use of artillery. A handful of shells is not going to last a mortar platoon a full day even for harassing fire. This isn't something that cannot be overcome, but poor logistics do reduce the possibilities for mortars in a less organized force. quote:Edit: Also following the US model 12 per battalion IS ~1 per platoon. And yet the medium and heavy mortars are not lugged along with the rifle platoons, as per the original question. Nor would it make any sense.
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Jul 1, 2012 00:19
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FuriousxGeorge posted:Let me know if there is anything else you think should be highlighted in the Metafilter thread. I just started following this thread last night so I don't know much of what else you have been up to besides the most recent stuff. Thanks for the mention, probably the best ones to include are: Hackgate - Major Upcoming Events Major General And Brigadier General Captured By The FSA In Damascus - Because the press seem to have missed how significant it is. and the latest weapons of the FSA post. You've also linked to my older blog, Libya Voices, which I was working on before I decided to make a more general blog, so it only really exists so I don't break a bunch of links I've posted all over the place. Hackgate for Beginnners also has a handy index page. Thanks again for the mention.
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Jul 1, 2012 00:25
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A lot of the FSA is former military, I'm sure a lot of them are familiar with the operation of mortars. They're not all rag-tag civilians. Supplying the mortars with ammo would be a bit more problematic, but it is hardly an insurmountable obstacle.
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Jul 1, 2012 00:25
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New Division posted:A lot of the FSA is former military, I'm sure a lot of them are familiar with the operation of mortars. They're not all rag-tag civilians. How good is Syria's military exactly? Libya's was basically just a very heavily armed thug squad. Which is about par for the course in the Middle East.
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Jul 1, 2012 00:28
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Former Syrian military though. The Republican Guards division is probably the best trained & equipped and most loyal unit in the army, led by Bashar's brother Maher. Then there are some airborne troops and special forces units that can be considered to be elite. The rest of the army, if they're even fully mobilized and participating in the fighting, are probably nothing spectacular. However, the kind of thing that we're arguing about here any dimwit conscript artilleryman would have learned in basic training. They suffer more from bad commanders, lacking combat training and very low morale made even worse by civil war, than knowledge how to use their weapons. P.S. Maher al-Assad is considered as the brutal brother. That should put him into some proper perspective. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 00:46 on Jul 1, 2012 |
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Jul 1, 2012 00:41
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Residents are reporting that Ansar Dine fighters have begun systematically destroying Timbuktu's historic holy sites.
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Jul 1, 2012 00:42
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Nenonen posted:I'm afraid we aren't going to agree here. I don't believe you could teach civilians how to read compasses and mils and maps in an hour or even a day, that stuff needs to be practised more. Forgetting for a second you don't need to be a fully functional mortar platoon capable to putting rounds on a target without line of site on the target or the observer to make good use of mortars, no, maps and compasses are basic, stupid, easy poo poo. You telling me these guys are capable of taking out armor but not reading a compass? Nenonen posted:Cooperation between the observing and firing elements is also something that needs to be practised. Sure, if you're limiting it to line of sight role then you're just limited by understanding the mechanics of the weapon system. But that already limits the usefulness quite a bit. Not at all, it limits it from its maximum potential, but it still an extremely useful weapon system even limited to operating within LOS of a local observer (as in an observer within yelling distance of the tube). Nenonen posted:You do need logistics to support any kind of proper use of artillery. A handful of shells is not going to last a mortar platoon a full day even for harassing fire. This isn't something that cannot be overcome, but poor logistics do reduce the possibilities for mortars in a less organized force. Again, mortars are not artillery batteries, and they have far more utility then emulating one. The amount of times I've been handed mortar rounds and told me "make them fit" in my rucksack just before a mission would attest to that. Nenonen posted:And yet the medium and heavy mortars are not lugged along with the rifle platoons, as per the original question. Nor would it make any sense. Mediums are attached to rifle platoons, especially if they have some sort of transportation or a strong point in which they can setup. I'm willing to bet the rebels can figure out how to throw an 81mm into a pickup truck for transport, hell I've seen SF roll out with a pickup modded to be a mobile 120 position. The Afghans and Iraqis both used (and continue to in the case of the Afghans) mortars to great effect against US forces, why is it you think this is a skill beyond the reach of Syrian rebels?
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Jul 1, 2012 01:19
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