Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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BlitzkriegOfColour: Aug 22, 2010

something original posted:

In that context a democratic Syria (and Iran) would be more stable, because people have more respect to their government if it's democratic, it will be seen as legitimate as "it's what the people wanted." This stability would spread to the economy in numerous ways and people would be more content with their lives.

Do you feel that the North American people really wanted a conservative pro-corporate douchebag in power? Is he seen as legitimate by the majority of the population? What de facto effects do their opinions about such things bring about?

something original posted:

I think their foreign policy would change under a solid democratic system. Putin and the oligarchs influence foreign policy with their individual worldviews and business interests.

I don't think Putin's corrupt dealings in various arenas are actually helping ordinary Russians.

Cheap oil, cheap gas, weapons deals around the world, economy go good, people afford petroleum products that make their broom-brooms go, make their farm equipment work; people can buy food. Admittedly it's far less ideal than under CCCP administration (outside of times of famine,) but it is nonetheless a better situation than if, for instance, they had let Georgia spit in their faces and oppress ethnic Russians, or not wielded their strategic and economic might against European nations, who historically have gagged at the chance to cripple Russia.

something original posted:

I don't agree that Iraq under Saddam was better but Iraq today is also under too much Iranian government influence and their prime minister is accused of running the country like a dictator by the Kurds in the North, by their coalition partners, by even prominent Shias like Sadr.

You read North American newspapers, don't you? Outside of the period during which they were crippled by sanctions (not really the fault of the dictator, far more blame is to be placed at the feet of those who placed the unfair, child-killing sanctions upon the nation), Iraq was a far more prosperous nation than it is today. Partly this was due to the nationalised industries and general Ba'athist paradigm under which it was governed. Under SH, feminist movement, education reforms and protection/restoration of heritage sites. How is life in Iraq for the women of today, oh glorious enlightened citizen of democracy?

something original posted:

Don't know much about life in Qatar but it still doesn't change the facts about democratic government.

Qatar is like pre-revolution Libya, in that people are awarded large stipends for getting married, studying abroad, can receive meaningful welfare payments when in need, and infrastructure projects see that everyone is able to live comfortably. It is noticeably less democratic than, for instance, anywhere that doesn't have a controlling monarchy in charge of the nation. I would prefer to be a citizen of Qatar than Israel. I mean, gently caress, look at Greece, or Armenia. Democracy = good, huh?

Hang on a second, are you trolling the ever living gently caress out of me?

BlitzkriegOfColour fucked around with this message at 12:42 on Jul 18, 2012

# ? Jul 18, 2012 12:40

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 03:24

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

BBC has a list of Assad's inner circle, including a bio of his late brother in law, Shawkat.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13216195

quote:

Born in 1950 to a middle-class Alawite family in Tartous, he studied law at Damascus University. He joined the army in the late 1970s.

He rose through the ranks, but his fortunes changed spectacularly in the mid-1990s when he married Hafez al-Assad's only daughter, Bushra - despite misgivings from within the Assad family because he was a divorced father-of-five who was 10 years her senior. They eloped after the death of Basil al-Assad, who had objected to the match.

After receiving the blessing of Hafez, he was welcomed into the family and built a close relationship with Bashar. Bushra reportedly nurtured the relationship through her influential role as the president's secretary.

Also apparently this isn't the first time he and the others have been reported dead:

quote:

In mid-May 2012, opposition activists claimed that Gen Shawkat had died and been buried in his hometown of Madhala after being poisoned by rebels. Interior Minister Mohammed al-Shaar, Defence Minister Daoud Rajiha, deputy GSD chief Hisham Ikhtiar and Hassan Turkomani, assistant to the vice-president, were also allegedly killed. Gen Turkomani subsequently appeared on TV to dismiss the report, while Mr Shaar denied them in a television interview, but Gen Shawkat did not do so, fuelling the rumours about his death.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 12:50

CeeJee: Dec 4, 2001; Oven Wrangler

This is pretty crazy for the top 4 people responsible for putting down an uprising to all be killed. Do we even know who will be taking over for them ? I'm pretty sure there will be people who will view this as a big opportunity for promotion like soldiers who wish for 'long campaings and cold winters'.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 12:58

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

There's currently explosions being reported at the 4th Division HQ in Damascus, headed by Assad's brother, Mahar Assad. Map

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 13:09 on Jul 18, 2012

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:06

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

There's currently explosions being reported at the 4th Division HQ in Damascus, headed by Assad's brother, Mahar Assad. Map

Holy poo poo, this has got to be some Operation Valkyrie plot that's actually come to fruition.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:09

Shadoer: Aug 31, 2011; Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

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Brown Moses posted:

There's currently explosions being reported at the 4th Division HQ in Damascus, headed by Assad's brother, Mahar Assad. Map

Oh please, oh please let this be another score of assassinations.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:15

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Chief of the National Security Bureau Hisham Ikhtiar is reported to have been among the wounded and is now in surgery.

quote:

Born in 1941, Gen Ikhtiar is the head of the Baath Party Regional Command's National Security Bureau (NSB), which co-ordinates the work of Syria's intelligence agencies and formulates recommendations for the president. Between 2001 and 2005, he was in charge of the General Security Directorate.

In 2006, the US imposed financial sanctions on Gen Ikhtiar for "significantly contributing to the Syrian government's support for designated terrorist organisations", including Hezbollah. While at the GSD, Gen Ikhtiar directed activities that "significantly contributed to the Syrian government's military and security presence in Lebanon", it said. In 2007, he was included on a list of Syrians forbidden to enter US soil.

Gen Ikhtiar was reportedly charged with quelling the initial pro-democracy protests in Deraa. The brutal crackdown launched by the security services in the southern city helped trigger the recent nationwide unrest.

In May 2011, the US treasury department imposed sanctions on the National Security Bureau, saying it had directed Syrian security forces to use extreme force against demonstrators. The EU and US later imposed individual sanctions on Gen Ikhtiar, with the latter saying he had directed security forces to "use extreme force against demonstrators".

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:18

Vetitum: Feb 29, 2008

Shadoer posted:

Oh please, oh please let this be another score of assassinations.

D&D demands more blood!

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:21

Orange Devil: Oct 1, 2010; Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Vetitum posted:

D&D demands more blood!

Let the blood of tyrants fertilize the earth.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:22

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Brown Blitzkrieg posted:

Qatar is like pre-revolution Libya, in that people are awarded large stipends for getting married, studying abroad, can receive meaningful welfare payments when in need, and infrastructure projects see that everyone is able to live comfortably. It is noticeably less democratic than, for instance, anywhere that doesn't have a controlling monarchy in charge of the nation. I would prefer to be a citizen of Qatar than Israel. I mean, gently caress, look at Greece, or Armenia. Democracy = good, huh?

Please don't sing the praises of living under an absolute monarchy. especially when you've never been subjected to one.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:24

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Reports that State TV is surrounded by tanks, someone must be getting very worried. State TV has announced army reservists will be called up, which might be a bad idea considering morale and loyalty issues.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:33

Shadoer: Aug 31, 2011; Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

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Updates from BBC Live Txt

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18887190

quote:

1331: Meanwhile, Damascus has now appointed a new defence minister, state TV reports. He is Gen Fahad Jassim al-Freij, who was previously the chief of staff of the armed forces.

1329: Syria's information minister has denied that explosions have hit the headquarters of unit responsible for guarding the presidential palace.

1327: The rebel commander who has claimed responsibility for the attack has been named by AP as Riyad al-Assad. He says his forces planted a bomb inside a room where senior government officials were meeting. But he denies it was a suicide bombing.

Gotta admit, they replaced their defense minister really fast.

Also that the rebels have actually planned this and are claiming it wasn't a suicide bomber... meaning that they have high placed moles and informants at the very top of the regime. That or it was a suicide bomber and they really want to gently caress with Assad's head.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:34

az jan jananam: Sep 6, 2011; HI, I'M HARDCORE SAX HERE TO DROP A NICE JUICY TURD OF A POST FROM UP ON HIGH

Brown Blitzkrieg posted:

You read North American newspapers, don't you?

Gallup, Iraq 2004

Iraqi Sympathy Toward Hussein

Evidently, only a small minority of Iraqis are sympathetic to Hussein. Just 1 Iraqi in 10 expresses either a somewhat favorable (4%) or very favorable (5%) opinion of the former Iraqi president, while 7% say they have a somewhat unfavorable view of Hussein. In contrast, nearly three-quarters of all Iraqis (73%) say they have a very unfavorable opinion of the ousted dictator -- far larger than the percentages expressing very unfavorable views of U.S. President George W. Bush (44%), British Prime Minister Tony Blair (36%), or Bremer (30%).

az jan jananam fucked around with this message at 13:40 on Jul 18, 2012

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:37

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

So we have
- A bombing killing 2 senior regime figures and injuring others
- Reports of explosions at the elite military base headed by the most important military figure in Syria
- Repots of Syrian army soldiers abandoning their vehicles in Midan, Damascus, where they were fighting the FSA
- Syrian State TV surroudned by tanks

Does this sound a bit like a coup to anyone else?

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:46

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

So we have
- A bombing killing 2 senior regime figures and injuring others
- Reports of explosions at the elite military base headed by the most important military figure in Syria
- Repots of Syrian army soldiers abandoning their vehicles in Midan, Damascus, where they were fighting the FSA
- Syrian State TV surroudned by tanks

Does this sound a bit like a coup to anyone else?

Shouldn't that be four senior regime figures? Syrian State TV has been fairly unreliable in the veracity department.

But yeah, although I'd wait until the tanks and personnel storm the State TV station before calling it a coup.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:49

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I'd say 2 dead for certain as State TV have confirmed it, we'll leave the others up in the air for now. I think it'll be an interesting day in Damascus.

[edit] Apparently the army near Houla have withdrawn as well. It's also been pointed out the Presidential Guard that surrounds Damascus had the recent defector Manaf Tlass as a member.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Jul 18, 2012

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:51

Shadoer: Aug 31, 2011; Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

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Brown Moses posted:

So we have
- A bombing killing 2 senior regime figures and injuring others
- Reports of explosions at the elite military base headed by the most important military figure in Syria
- Repots of Syrian army soldiers abandoning their vehicles in Midan, Damascus, where they were fighting the FSA
- Syrian State TV surroudned by tanks

Does this sound a bit like a coup to anyone else?

Yeah, it's smelling like a coup. Especially with a new defense minister being named this fast, something fishy is going on.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 13:55

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Shadoer posted:

Yeah, it's smelling like a coup. Especially with a new defense minister being named this fast, something fishy is going on.

There's nothing strange about it, you don't leave the defense minister's vacancy unoccupied for a minute when you're at war. At the very least you appoint an acting minister for the time being.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:00

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

There's also rumours the Syrian vice-president has defected to Jordan, and this

quote:

A Syrian army commander in Damascus, Mohammad al-Bardan, defected along with the soldiers under his command, Al-Arabiya reported #Syria

Plus this

quote:

Damascus: Regime forces evacuated the Opera House, the High Institute of Dramatic Arts, and the Free Zone. All of them are near Omawyein (Omayyad) square and the General Authority for Radio and Television

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:03

Shadoer: Aug 31, 2011; Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

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Nenonen posted:

There's nothing strange about it, you don't leave the defense minister's vacancy unoccupied for a minute when you're at war. At the very least you appoint an acting minister for the time being.

I don't know about that, I'd think that they'd wait a few hours until the regime could take full stock of the situation. Then again, I don't know of any historical examples where the defense minister was assassinated while a rebel army is in the capital. So I guess it's debatable on what to do in this sort of situation.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:08

Shadoer: Aug 31, 2011; Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

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Another awesome rumor has just shown up on BBC Live Txt

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18887190

quote:

1401: Abo Emad, an activist in Homs, is speaking to the BBC on Skype. He says the Tadamoun [Damascus] police department chief has defected. We have not been able to confirm this.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:15

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

More deaths, Manar TV confirms the death of former Minister of Defense Hasan Turkmani, Syrian chief of staff.

Also reports of soldiers abandoning checkpoints across Homs.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:19

SixFigureSandwich: Oct 30, 2004; Exciting Lemon

It could turn into a Romania, where a high-up in the security services sells Assad to the rebels in order to get out alive himself. Although at this point I'm not sure if any single person actually controls all the various government brigades and militias.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:20

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

The thing is that in a strictly centralized government decapitating one of the top dogs will paralyze the entire apparatus below him, as so many things depend on the minister's approval.

Eg. in 1944 the German response to Normandy invasion was delayed because Hitler's servants didn't want to wake him up to authorize the movement of reserves.

All in all it's an impressive day - the phones must have been ringing like crazy in the defense ministry all day long. It's like a small Tet offensive of sorts.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:21

Vetitum: Feb 29, 2008

Brown Moses do you have any idea what it is that's being livestreamed you linked on your twitter feed? Al Jazeera now seem to be using it on their live coverage.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:31

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Going back to this:

"The rebel commander who has claimed responsibility for the attack has been named by AP as Riyad al-Asaad. He says his forces planted a bomb inside a room where senior government officials were meeting. But he denies it was a suicide bombing."

This should be even more alarming for the regime. It implies that they knew beforehand that there was going to be a high level meeting, that they knew where it was to be held, and they could place a bomb in the room in one of the best guarded buildings in Syria and then just wait.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:33

Orange Devil: Oct 1, 2010; Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

So is there any chance this might effect the security council taking place later today? Russia might want to start backing away from Assad to try to salvage what diplomatic ties they can with whatever the new Syrian government will be?

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:34

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Vetitum posted:

Brown Moses do you have any idea what it is that's being livestreamed you linked on your twitter feed? Al Jazeera now seem to be using it on their live coverage.

It's apparently the FSA and civilians in Damascus out on the streets, not sure of the exact location though.

So this is the list of people who are possibly dead according to various media outlets
Hasan Turkmani, former Minister of Defense , Syrian chief of staff, assistant vice president
Hafez Makhlouf, head of the investigations (torture) at the Syrian Intelligence Agency
Mohammad al Shaar, The Minister of Interior
Dawoud Rajha, The Minister of Defence
Assef Shawkat, Deputy Minister of Defence (and Assad's brother in law)
Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar, The Head of the National Security Council

And perhaps
Unknown, Russian Consulant

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Jul 18, 2012

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:35

Mokotow: Apr 16, 2012

Nenonen posted:

There's nothing strange about it, you don't leave the defense minister's vacancy unoccupied for a minute when you're at war. At the very least you appoint an acting minister for the time being.

Yeah, it's called a chain of command, and, in this case, it worked just as it was suppoused to. The Syrian army has years upon years of working together with the Soviet Union and, later, Russia in regards to military organization. Now, obviously, a minister of defence, strictly speaking, is part of the civilian oversight of the military, and he may just happen to be a military man. A rule of a thumb is that this relation is tied to the level of democracy, where a purely democratic country draws a definite line between the position of MOD and military functions (same way a chieg of law enforcement could not be an active duty police officer in many places).

What is interesting for me is that they've put the former chief of staff into the position, which, under these circumstances, means an effective merger of these two somewhat seperate seats. In western countries, these kinds of moves are reserved for the highest states of national emergencies (ie. war). Anyhow, interestnig times.

EDIT: I take it the new MoD is not the acting Army CoS? Fog of war indeed!

Mokotow fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Jul 18, 2012

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:37

Shadoer: Aug 31, 2011; Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

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Nenonen posted:

The thing is that in a strictly centralized government decapitating one of the top dogs will paralyze the entire apparatus below him, as so many things depend on the minister's approval.

Eg. in 1944 the German response to Normandy invasion was delayed because Hitler's servants didn't want to wake him up to authorize the movement of reserves.

All in all it's an impressive day - the phones must have been ringing like crazy in the defense ministry all day long. It's like a small Tet offensive of sorts.

True. Guess they needed the chair filled pronto if only for someone to be there to rubber stamp orders.

Orange Devil posted:

So is there any chance this might effect the security council taking place later today? Russia might want to start backing away from Assad to try to salvage what diplomatic ties they can with whatever the new Syrian government will be?

They've already said it changes nothing. And if Libya is any indication, Russia will back Assad till the very bitter end.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:42

pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008

Vetitum posted:

Brown Moses do you have any idea what it is that's being livestreamed you linked on your twitter feed? Al Jazeera now seem to be using it on their live coverage.

Best I can tell, it's the FSA in what looks like full control over what I think may be the Midan neighborhood in Damascus. I heard a guy say "Idlib, Hama, Homs, Deir ez-Zour, Damascus- now, all free." and another guy call al-Assad a son of a dog, which is a pretty big insult.

Edit: Actually not Midan, but Sbeneh, which is a few kilometers from Midan.

pantslesswithwolves fucked around with this message at 14:50 on Jul 18, 2012

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:47

Lord Twisted: Apr 3, 2010; In the Emperor's name, let none survive.

Call me stupid, but how the hell does Brown Moses know all this cool stuff?

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:47

Munin: Nov 14, 2004

Brown Moses posted:

And perhaps
Unknown, Russian Consulant

Where is that sourced from? Interesting is true, especially if we get more detail about what the meeting was about and it was of an operational nature.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:49

Vetitum: Feb 29, 2008

Lord Twisted posted:

Call me stupid, but how the hell does Brown Moses know all this cool stuff?

He works for MI6

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:49

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Lord Twisted posted:

Call me stupid, but how the hell does Brown Moses know all this cool stuff?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raplvZFysjU

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:50

Un-l337-Pork: Sep 9, 2001; Oooh yeah...

It looks like this is the real loving poo poo hitting the fan:

https://twitter.com/NOW_Syria/

16:40 Heavy gunfire was heard in Baghdad Street in central Damascus, SNN reported.

16:36 Syrian regime soldiers belonging to the Third Armed Division defected in Damascus, Al-Arabiya reported.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:52

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Lord Twisted posted:

Call me stupid, but how the hell does Brown Moses know all this cool stuff?

I've developed a lot of contacts with journalists and activists inside and outside of Syria, especially since I started the blog, and in particular since the cluster bomb story in particular. It's still pretty weird to have followed these journalists through Libya, then have them email me out of nowhere asking me stuff and telling me how much they like my blog.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 14:56

Zedsdeadbaby: Jun 14, 2008; You have been called out, in the ways of old.

quote:

Shabiha groups attacked the Al-Qadam and Al-Aasali neighborhoods of Damascus, Al-Arabiya television reported

That's one way to endear the Damascene populace. Shabiha in Damascus reeks of desperation.

# ? Jul 18, 2012 15:02

CeeJee: Dec 4, 2001; Oven Wrangler

This bombing seems much more like the Stauffenberg one where the bomb is brought in by a member of the meeting who leaves before it goes off. The result is just too spectacular for a Georg Elser like bomb that is put into place long before. How would you know everyone is really in the room when the bomb goes off ?

# ? Jul 18, 2012 15:09

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 03:24

Hefty Leftist: Jun 26, 2011; "You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."

Gogogogo FSA!

# ? Jul 18, 2012 15:13

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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