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I wanted to avoid spamming this thread with news of defections, especially as they are hard to confirm, but for example there's 60 special forces apparently defected in Damascus, and 120 tanks defected outside of Damascus, according to reports, plus plenty more.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:17
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I honestly think we should hold off news of defections unless there's 100% confirmation, at this rate we'll hear that Assad himself has defected and not have any proof otherwise.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:19
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What is the likelihood that the fall of Assad would inspire/re-energize protests in the remaining mid-east countries? I'm guessing it would at least serve as encouraging proof that dictatorships in the region can be overthrown without overt international intervention.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:20
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I'm sure defection videos will show up on Youtube, here's my list of Youtube channels for those of you with time to check.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:20
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Brown Moses posted:I wanted to avoid spamming this thread with news of defections, especially as they are hard to confirm, but for example there's 60 special forces apparently defected in Damascus, and 120 tanks defected outside of Damascus, according to reports, plus plenty more. Please keep it up, today seems like it may be an inflection point in the conflict. I think most of us here would appreciate the updates, even if some have to be retracted later.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:20
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Slashrat posted:What is the likelihood that the fall of Assad would inspire/re-energize protests in the remaining mid-east countries? I'm guessing it would at least serve as encouraging proof that dictatorships in the region can be overthrown without overt international intervention. Huge. Bahrain will probably flare up again. Algeria might have another bout of resistance. Hell it might even reach Saudi Arabia. Other revolutions will probably become more solidified. The Egyptian Military Council might start having second thoughts on their hold on power for example. Then there is a small Russian wild card because this would be a massive blow to their prestige. Their influence would take a significant hit and a number of their "client states" will start wondering if Russia can actually bail them out in their time of need. AreWeDrunkYet posted:Please keep it up, today seems like it may be an inflection point in the conflict. I think most of us here would appreciate the updates, even if some have to be retracted later. Same.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:27
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From the Telegraph live blog:quote:15.08 Keith Urbahn, Donald Rumsfeld's former chief-of-staff, says the West should be praising the suicide bomber who struck at the heart of Assad's regime. @keithurbahn Keith Urbahn For once we should call a suicide bomber - the one that took out a major fraction of Assad's cabinet - a martyr. 
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Jul 18, 2012 15:27
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Here's a good place to start for the latest defections.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:29
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Brown Moses posted:From the Telegraph live blog: Man, there is indeed no cat big enough for that one. Well, we always knew that us westerners were a huge bunch of hypocrits. vv So it turns out that he wasn't that stable then.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:33
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Al Jazeera is now reporting that Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar has died from his wounds.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:33
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Munin posted:Man, there is indeed no cat big enough for that one. Well, we always knew that us westerners were a huge bunch of hypocrits. This was posted earlier in the thread: http://mondoweiss.net/2012/07/state-dept-says-it-is-not-consistent-on-human-rights-violations-involving-israel-and-neighbors.html
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Jul 18, 2012 15:37
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Shadoer posted:Huge. Bahrain will probably flare up again. Algeria might have another bout of resistance. Hell it might even reach Saudi Arabia. this is probably fantasy, the gulf countries have five very distinct advantages that ensure nothing is going to happen to them soon:- 1- Massivley rich governments that can spend their ways out of trouble, something every other arab government couldnt do. "what's this? you're complaining about poor conditions, well I suppose I could spare some of this obscene amounts of money I have tucked away for a rainy day", especially that most GCC countries are essentially villages in terms of populations then it's easy to have a financial grip on things. Especially with the expensive patronage systems that are the foundations for this kind of governance. 2- An absolute control over the entire arab media (therefore control of the narrative and what people percieve), all of it with no dissenting voices, and complete subversion of religious establishments (therefore all dissenters are heretics), and complete blind tribalist loyalty of the people who make up the security establishments. 3- The complete and total lack of what can be called a 'public life', even the most basic and fundamental aspects of a working social life (e.g. student unions, workers groups, associations) are banned. and the kind of people who might suffer the most in labour based jobs (workers, farmers, factorymen, etc.) are made of mostly foreign people, so there's not the kind of 'Proletariat' so to speak who could form a unique political current (although there is poverty aplenty) 4- The syrian AND libyan opposition is completely financed and controlled by the gulf countries, you can bet what's coming next is hardly going to be much of a beacon of hope, if we're lucky we'll end up with a less functioning version of lebanon. 5- The gulf countries are the big red line of the west. like how russia defended assad but times a million. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Jul 18, 2012 |
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Jul 18, 2012 15:39
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BBC postedquote:1528: Al-Jazeera is now reporting that Syrian Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar was also killed in the bombing. Earlier reports said he was wounded. The BBC cannot verify the report.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:42
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The Saudis have shown last year that they have no problem with sending in lots of troops to tiny Bahrain in order to prop up Bahrain by force. I just don't think it's feasible. To be honest, the Arab Spring has already picked all the low-hanging fruit. Sudan may or may not be a thing, but that aside, I think Syria's just about the end of this wave.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:43
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This was shared on twitter as a "Massive FSA convoy moving to Damascus" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GmTGShxuTM
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Jul 18, 2012 15:43
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Does Assad roll deep enough to replace these people with others that are loyal to the regime?
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Jul 18, 2012 15:43
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These are supposedly fighters from Aleppo heading to Damascus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GmTGShxuTM [edit] Dammit
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Jul 18, 2012 15:47
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Zeroisanumber posted:Does Assad roll deep enough to replace these people with others that are loyal to the regime? In the short term sure, but Assad derives his entire power base from the Alawite minorty (only about 10% of Syira I believe). Plus that's a ton of experience, power, and cashe lost in one attack. It's a significant blow, coupled with the increasing wave of defections. We're approaching the endgame, which will be very ugly.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:49
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Some pretty heavy fighting currently going on and being streamed live by Al Jazeera, pretty crazy to think you can now watch a civil war unfold live through a mobile phone!
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Jul 18, 2012 15:50
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From Reutersquote:Syrian state television confirms death of General Hassan Turkmani, former defense minister, in bomb attack
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Jul 18, 2012 15:54
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I just heard that the Russian navy in Tartous defected to the rebel side, will try to confirm. It's really good news if the interior minister decides to remain dead. Even before he was named as minister to crush the uprising, he ran the Sednaya prison where 25 inmates were shot dead in 2008. Even by Syrian prison standards that's awful.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:56
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Vetitum posted:Some pretty heavy fighting currently going on and being streamed live by Al Jazeera, pretty crazy to think you can now watch a civil war unfold live through a mobile phone! I'm loving the British diplomat talking about implementing Kofi Annan's plan as Damascus is erupting right next to him.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:56
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Holy poo poo you go to sleep for six hours and then everything goes all early end game on your rear end. It'll be interesting to see if Assad and co. can even attempt to consolidate their position now.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:57
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Anyone have a direct link to the stream that is being used by AJ?
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Jul 18, 2012 15:58
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ThePutty posted:I'm loving the British diplomat talking about implementing Kofi Annan's plan as Damascus is erupting right next to him. The sycophant dedication to the Annan plan has been the single most infuriating aspect of the West's response to this. It was in tatters from day one, but they stuck to the party line in the face of everything going on. That coupled with Russia's ridiculous commitment to blocking anything the UN tries to do just... fuuuuuck you aaaaaaall.
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Jul 18, 2012 15:59
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Slashrat posted:What is the likelihood that the fall of Assad would inspire/re-energize protests in the remaining mid-east countries? I'm guessing it would at least serve as encouraging proof that dictatorships in the region can be overthrown without overt international intervention. The states that are left for the revolution are under U.S. control. Freedom doesn't fly there.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:00
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When Assad goes, the Alawites in Syria are going to be so hosed it's unreal. I haven't seen any real ponderings/musings by the media about what would happen to them. Even if I was an innocent Alawite civilian minding his own business in Syria, I would be incredibly frightened right now. The sectarian violence against the Alawites will be immense.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:02
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Vetitum posted:Anyone have a direct link to the stream that is being used by AJ? Try this: http://www.aljazeera.com/watch_now/
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Jul 18, 2012 16:04
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 holy poo pooBBC posted:Russia has demanded that those behind the attack in the capital be brought to justice. "We expect the organisers of the act of terror in Damascus to be identified and for them to face their deserved punishment," the Russian foreign ministry said, in a statement carried by AFP news agency. 
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Jul 18, 2012 16:06
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He means a direct link to the choppy video Damascus they are showing on AJ.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:06
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Nenonen posted:
Russia's foreign minister says supporting the opposition is a dead end. Russia seems to be on the wrong side of all these middle east revolutions - is that because the uprisings are mostly happening in areas with Russian oil interests, Americans preventing uprisings in territory they control, or what?
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Jul 18, 2012 16:09
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Current deaths Hasan Turkmani, former Minister of Defense , Syrian chief of staff, assistant vice president - Confirmed by State TV Mohammad al Shaar, The Minister of Interior - Confirmed by State TV Dawoud Rajha, The Minister of Defence - Confirmed by State TV Assef Shawkat, Deputy Minister of Defence (and Assad's brother in law) - Confirmed by State TV - Confirmed by State TV Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar, The Head of the National Security Council Hafez Makhlouf, head of the investigations (torture) at the Syrian Intelligence Agency Here's a new live stream
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Jul 18, 2012 16:09
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Chamale posted:is that because the uprisings are mostly happening in areas with Russian oil interests, Americans preventing uprisings in territory they control, or what? I don't know about the other uprisings, but I thought Syria was a major strategic foothold for Russia. They are kind of an asset from the Soviet era that had been hanging around.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:11
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Kofi Annan is asking for the vote on a new resolution to be delayed.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:11
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Chamale posted:Russia's foreign minister says supporting the opposition is a dead end. Russia seems to be on the wrong side of all these middle east revolutions - is that because the uprisings are mostly happening in areas with Russian oil interests, Americans preventing uprisings in territory they control, or what? I think it's mostly that Russia's political elite is stuck in Cold War thinking because Putin is a cold warrior. And Syria has been a traditional ally for them in the region, they supported the Assad's heavily for many many decades. So what they see is an eroding power base in a strategically important region and have decided to double down, especially since they can limit the (feeble) Western response with their super secret special veto powers. It helps that the government in Russia has about as much respect for the ideas of democracy and human rights as most of these outgoing regimes.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:11
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Chamale posted:Russia's foreign minister says supporting the opposition is a dead end. Russia seems to be on the wrong side of all these middle east revolutions - is that because the uprisings are mostly happening in areas with Russian oil interests, Americans preventing uprisings in territory they control, or what? It's because the american has some extremely rich allies while the Russians dont. The americans lost tunisia, but that's a small poor country so it doesnt matter, and in egypt there's gonna be a big power struggle for the next few years so while losing Mubarak sucked his cronies are fighting back. but the gulf is a money machine that can do alot of things. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Jul 18, 2012 |
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Jul 18, 2012 16:11
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Shadoer posted:Kofi Annan is asking for the vote on a new resolution to be delayed. The fierce urgency of sometime later I guess whatever. The amount of gunfire on this Syrian stream on AJE is pretty remarkable.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:13
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If i'm not mistaken then the Russian Naval Base in Syria is the only refuelling station available to the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean that doesn't force them to pass the straits in Turkey, a NATO member after all.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:15
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J33uk posted:The fierce urgency of sometime later I guess whatever. The amount of gunfire on this Syrian stream on AJE is pretty remarkable. No kidding. That brave cameraman was walking towards the gunfire. Who does that? Why am I capable of watching a war unfold live on my computer screen?
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Jul 18, 2012 16:17
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More totally unconfirmed defection newsquote:Breaking News: Wadi Nauman #Idlib #Syria l Defection of 2,500 Soldiers with all their Armament to #FSA ! Many More Defections to Report...
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Jul 18, 2012 16:17
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