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ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
Yeah, that one falls under the "he who steals from me steals twice" rule.

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Pro-PRC Laowai
Sep 30, 2004

by toby

Munin posted:

The big book of invasions every time every where. You had the same "defend our citizens" stuff from Russia when they invaded Georgia and Britain at various times etc.

The only question is will they pull the
"well, we can't control them, but tell ya what. just to make this equal, we're willing to buy the land from you for a token amount so you can save some face" trick, or will it just be a race to the island with flag planting.

I guess, the other question is will it be an attempt to occupy the place, or will it just be a short time in your face flag planting and tearing down of the japanese flags. Followed by a retreat. And then it goes back to status quo with that face saving stunt.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

I'm not familiar with that saying about stealing. When did Russia invade Britain?

GuestBob
Nov 27, 2005

Munin posted:

Russia when they invaded ... Britain...

What?

Chinese fishermen are always up to illegal poo poo. I only care about whether or not there is official military support and, even if it is a "defending our citizens line" I will still bet a custom title that it simply isn't going to happen. There will be no shots fired in anger at the military forces of either side, by the military forces of either side: bump and grind maybe, but there will be no guns.

[edit]

Ginger stepchild.

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
Not that example, the tactic. My professional mentor used to say it - as in "he who steals this marketing tactic from me steals it from the person I stole it from first" in reference to the letting civilians into harms way and then feigning shock, which is age-old.

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


I think he meant "Russia when it invaded Georgia, Britain at various times..." as in Britain did the same poo poo to justify invasions. It's hardly a new tactic, Romans were selling their invasions of neighbors as defensive actions over two thousand years ago.

Fall Sick and Die
Nov 22, 2003

Grand Fromage posted:

Last I saw South Korea stops 200+ Chinese fishing boats a year. It's constant, the only time it makes the news is when the Chinese fishermen start stabbing the Coast Guard guys or something.

200+ fishing boats a year is a lot different from 1000 fishing boats over the course of two or three days, far away from the Japanese mainland. Imagine how messy it would be, attempting to board these fishing ships one by one to arrest the crew, never knowing which crew might be armed, which crew might fight back. It would be absolute chaos to attempt to board and arrest the crew of these vessels if they showed up even in groups of twenty or so at a time, let alone hundreds. Also there are very clear laws about how you're allowed to deal with fishing vessels intruding on your territory but that is based on the idea that fishermen aren't allowed to be armed.

What I can't figure out is this constant press in the Chinese news about, "US has proclaimed its neutrality." Are they going to claim a stab in the back when the US supports Japan as it obviously will and must?

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

Fall Sick and Die posted:

Japan's new ambassador to China is dead, he 'fainted' outside on his way to work. 1000 Chinese 'fishing boats' on their way to the islands, I would make a reasonable guess that there are a great number of PLA personnel on these ships, special forces, who are prepared to seize the islands.

Here's some photos of the fishing fleet setting sail...
http://english.caixin.com/2012-09-17/100438780.html



China is sending these ships to force the Japanese to react violently. They're trying to manufacture a casus belli. Send a few ships, the Japanese will arrest the crew. Send 1,000 ships and there's nothing they can do besides fight them off. If they allow the ships to enter the water and start fishing, or land on the islands to establish a beachhead, then China has won, they will never get rid of them without landing troops and engaging in a shooting war.

The ambassador died in Tokyo and Japanese police have ruled out foul play.

I don't know what to make of this fishing boat armada claim, since there seems to be scant reporting apart from the second hand reporting of Chinese radio. I suspect there's been some large exaggerations at play. Suugestions of a special forces plan to seize the islands seems like breathless conspiracy theories to me. Well, we'll see later in the day.

GuestBob
Nov 27, 2005

Fall Sick and Die posted:

Also there are very clear laws about how you're allowed to deal with fishing vessels intruding on your territory but that is based on the idea that fishermen aren't allowed to be armed.

No, if they are armed then the IC of the boarding party can give the order to shoot them. Armed resistance to a lawful search conducted by a coast guard within territorial waters is a clear criminal offense.

It won't come to that though. These fishermen may make it to the island, they may even land there, but the Chinese government is going to give no support to them and the Japanese and Chinese will be engaged in a standoff blockade (at worst).

More probably, these fishermen will simply gently caress about and achieve nothing.

Oh, and the US has chosen this moment to announce that it is giving Japan a new radar system on Okinawa. Well done State Department.

[edit]

If anyone was wondering, the weather forecast for the area is calm for the next four days.

GuestBob fucked around with this message at 13:58 on Sep 17, 2012

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!
BTW, this is how the Your Favourite CCP MouthpiecePeople's Daily is reporting it:

quote:

The three-month summer fishing ban in the East China Sea ended on September 16. Over 10,000 fishing boats set off for fishing from Zhejiang province and Fujian province. According to incomplete statistics, over 1,000 Chinese fishing boats from Zhejiang and Fujian enter waters around Diaoyu Islands for fishing every year. A Chinese Marine surveillance official said they will continue the patrol and law enforcement in waters near Diaoyu Islands.

My impression seems to be that there's some confusion here - the 1000 ships figure is a projected cumulative number over an entire year, not a singular event to happen immediately.

Fangz fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Sep 17, 2012

Pro-PRC Laowai
Sep 30, 2004

by toby

Fangz posted:

BTW, this is how the Your Favourite CCP MouthpiecePeople's Daily is reporting it:


My impression seems to be that there's some confusion here - the 1000 ships figure is a projected cumulative number over an entire year, not a singular event to happen immediately.

Yea, but can you guess where they are all gonna head to? :china:

MaterialConceptual
Jan 18, 2011

"It is rather that precisely in that which is newest the face of the world never alters, that this newest remains, in every aspect, the same. - This constitutes the eternity of hell."

-Walter Benjamin, "The Arcades Project"

Fangz posted:

My impression seems to be that there's some confusion here - the 1000 ships figure is a projected cumulative number over an entire year, not a singular event to happen immediately.

I really hope that is the case.

Fall Sick and Die
Nov 22, 2003

Fangz posted:

BTW, this is how the Your Favourite CCP MouthpiecePeople's Daily is reporting it:


My impression seems to be that there's some confusion here - the 1000 ships figure is a projected cumulative number over an entire year, not a singular event to happen immediately.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9548059/China-sends-1000-boats-armada-to-disputed-island-chain.html

http://japandailypress.com/1000-chinese-fishing-boats-sailing-towards-disputed-senkaku-waters-1712396

Oceanbound
Jan 19, 2008

Time to let the dead be dead.
Heh. I just read a news item about what a teenager said on TV. "Boycotting Japanese goods doesn't mean breaking all the Japanese goods we have. It means we have to be better than the Japanese at everything. Our officials need to be more incorruptible than theirs, our streets cleaner than theirs, our bridges stronger than theirs, our youth having better futures and hopes than theirs."

Responses to his words included "this is what Chinese youth should be", as well as "afraid for your safety, hope you're still alive tomorrow"

whatever7
Jul 26, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

PrezCamachoo posted:

Chinese maritime service had to bring in their biggest and newest ships too so they don't look too bad being photographed while being chased away by the shiny Japanese coast guard ships.



It's ok if you are being blatantly defensive about Japan. But lie about a photo? No cool.

This photo was taken when the 6 Chinese ships circled the Islands a few days ago. Japanese Coast Guard didn't do anything except telling them to leave over open radio.

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Grand Fromage posted:

I think he meant "Russia when it invaded Georgia, Britain at various times..." as in Britain did the same poo poo to justify invasions. It's hardly a new tactic, Romans were selling their invasions of neighbors as defensive actions over two thousand years ago.

Yes, exactly that. Sorry about the ambiguity.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
The Russian navy attacked a British fishing fleet off the coast of Britain during the Russo-Japanese war. The Russians claimed they mistook them for Japanese warships.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident

GuestBob
Nov 27, 2005


Dogger Bank sounds like somewhere you go to have sex with rancid Mancunian swingers.

PrezCamachoo
Jan 21, 2012

by Y Kant Ozma Post

whatever7 posted:

It's ok if you are being blatantly defensive about Japan. But lie about a photo? No cool.

This photo was taken when the 6 Chinese ships circled the Islands a few days ago. Japanese Coast Guard didn't do anything except telling them to leave over open radio.

You do know that the Chinese Maritime Surveillance Service has gone into modernization overdrive since the September, 2010 Senkaku incident right?

This is because of complaints within China about how the Japanese (and Korean) Coast Guards completely outclass them in every way.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-10/28/content_11467499.htm

Of course no one says it openly but the six boats that got chased out of the area by the Japanese Coast Guard a few days ago were carefully selected so they look good against the JCG. It's all about keeping face.

PrezCamachoo fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Sep 17, 2012

evilbastard
Mar 6, 2003

Hair Elf

Fangz posted:

BTW, this is how the Your Favourite CCP MouthpiecePeople's Daily is reporting it:


My impression seems to be that there's some confusion here - the 1000 ships figure is a projected cumulative number over an entire year, not a singular event to happen immediately.

Source




PrezCamachoo
Jan 21, 2012

by Y Kant Ozma Post
What does Taiwan typically do about mainland Chinese fishing boats entering its territory?

PrezCamachoo fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Sep 17, 2012

whatever7
Jul 26, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

PrezCamachoo posted:

You do know that the Chinese Maritime Surveillance Service has gone into modernization overdrive since the September, 2010 Senkaku incident right?

This is because of complaints within China about how the Japanese (and Korean) Coast Guards completely outclass them in every way.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-10/28/content_11467499.htm

Of course no one says it openly but the six boats that got chased out of the area by the Japanese Coast Guard a few days ago were carefully selected so they look good against the JCG. It's all about keeping face.

I would like to see a western media article that described action The JCG took. I am pretty sure JCG didn't do anything except verbal warning over radio.

Modus Operandi
Oct 5, 2010

PrezCamachoo posted:

What does Taiwan typically do about mainland Chinese fishing boats entering it's territory?

They are probably owned by joint Taiwanese-Chinese business ventures to begin with.

PrezCamachoo
Jan 21, 2012

by Y Kant Ozma Post

whatever7 posted:

I would like to see a western media article that described action The JCG took. I am pretty sure JCG didn't do anything except verbal warning over radio.

Pulling up along side a Chinese ship and telling them over the radio to GTFO = chasing them away.

Adrastus
Apr 1, 2012

by toby

Oceanbound posted:

It means we have to be better than the Japanese at everything. Our officials need to be more incorruptible than theirs, our streets cleaner than theirs, our bridges stronger than theirs, our youth having better futures and hopes than theirs."


It is true, China is severely lacking in terms of infrastructure compared to Japan. However, people are quick to attribute these difficulties to government incompetence, corruption or even flaws with the system while overlooking the fact that it is more likely the direct result of colonialism and imperialistic aggression perpetuated by Japan, and various other countries in the West, the damage of which China is still struggling to overcome.

Such is the insidious form that pro-Japanese rhetoric usually takes in China, 'We are objectively inferior to Japanese society in such and such aspects, and unless that changes, we have no right to defend ourselves from neocolonial invasion upon our territorial sovereignty.', trying to sugarcoat apologetics for Japanese imperialism in many seemingly respectable layers of introspection and self-betterment. Do not allow them to distract you from the issue at hand. The Chinese ownership to the Diaoyu island is clear and self-evident, supported by documents and records going as far back into antiquity as the Qing dynasty.

PrezCamachoo
Jan 21, 2012

by Y Kant Ozma Post

Adrastus posted:

The Chinese ownership to the Diaoyu island is clear and self-evident, supported by documents and records going as far back into antiquity as the Qing dynasty.

Since when is the Qing dynasty considered antiquity?

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Adrastus posted:

It is true, China is severely lacking in terms of infrastructure compared to Japan. However, people are quick to attribute these difficulties to government incompetence, corruption or even flaws with the system while overlooking the fact that it is more likely the direct result of colonialism and imperialistic aggression perpetuated by Japan, and various other countries in the West, the damage of which China is still struggling to overcome.

Such is the insidious form that pro-Japanese rhetoric usually takes in China, 'We are objectively inferior to Japanese society in such and such aspects, and unless that changes, we have no right to defend ourselves from neocolonial invasion upon our territorial sovereignty.', trying to sugarcoat apologetics for Japanese imperialism in many seemingly respectable layers of introspection and self-betterment. Do not allow them to distract you from the issue at hand. The Chinese ownership to the Diaoyu island is clear and self-evident, supported by documents and records going as far back into antiquity as the Qing dynasty.


So why is China's capital Beijing and not Ulan Bator? Heck, the Qing dynasty wasn't exactly what the West calls antiquity (generally 800BC-400 AD-ish). Unless I'm mistaken or there are multiple Qing dynasties, they date back to the mid 1600s AD, which isn't all that impressive.

Adrastus
Apr 1, 2012

by toby

PrezCamachoo posted:

Since when is the Qing dynasty considered antiquity?

Sorry, I meant to say Ming Dynasty but the point stands. China happened upon that piece of rock first, which means they own it.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Adrastus posted:

The Chinese ownership to the Diaoyu island is clear and self-evident, supported by documents and records going as far back into antiquity as the Qing dynasty.

I got hats older than the Qing dynasty. Heck, I got family feuds older than the Qing dynasty.
Oh! Ming dynasty. I don't have hats older than that.

Still got feuds older than that. Geez, you call that history? I'm a barbarian over here and I can point to things with my family name on it that go back further than that.

Wake me when you got something older than Braveheart, would you?

Warcabbit fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Sep 17, 2012

PrezCamachoo
Jan 21, 2012

by Y Kant Ozma Post

Adrastus posted:

Sorry, I meant to say Ming Dynasty but the point stands. China happened upon that piece of rock first, which means they own it.

That's not how it works.

skysedge
May 26, 2006

PrezCamachoo posted:

What does Taiwan typically do about mainland Chinese fishing boats entering its territory?

We read them strongly worded statements over loudspeakers.

There are occasional boardings and cat and mouse chases. No one says much of anything about them.

Modus Operandi posted:

They are probably owned by joint Taiwanese-Chinese business ventures to begin with.

Many Taiwanese fishing boats hire Chinese deckhands. They're allowed to dock in Taiwanese ports with the boat during inclement weather, but not disembark. The rest of the time, Chinese deckhands for hire between jobs tend to spend their time on fishing boats anchored further out near the high seas locally dubbed "floating motels".

Fall Sick and Die
Nov 22, 2003

Adrastus posted:

Sorry, I meant to say Ming Dynasty but the point stands. China happened upon that piece of rock first, which means they own it.

Haha are you from antiquity too?

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

Yes, both of these are via the same original source and supposedly originating from Chinese state news... except that no one's linking to a direct report from Chinese state news, which as I quoted, is *not* reporting on this.

ryan8723
May 18, 2004

Trust me, I read it on TexAgs.

PrezCamachoo posted:

Japan is going to come out on top here and China is just going to have to deal with it. There's no way in hell China is going to militarily attack Japan.

I bet the Chinese military leadership values Japan as a pacifist antiwar state more than it values controlling these boring rocks in the middle of the ocean. The moment the Chinese navy opens up on the Japanese navy you can kiss Japan's 60+ years of pacifism goodbye.

Anyone who thinks Japan is a pacifist country is delusional. They are a very conservative, reactionary society that is absolutely cuthroat in all aspects of business and they are still extremely nationalistic. Anyone who makes this mistake will pay for it dearly.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
China needs a man like Gilbert Bates, I tell you. Cut out all that feuding and fighting and bad memories.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbert_Bates

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

ryan8723 posted:

Anyone who thinks Japan is a pacifist country is delusional. They are a very conservative, reactionary society that is absolutely cuthroat in all aspects of business and they are still extremely nationalistic. Anyone who makes this mistake will pay for it dearly.

Yes, the question on everybody's mind is whether or not Japan's military has shed the horrific aggression and behavior given the last 60 years of heavy American influence in the military Japanese sphere. Essentially, whether their giving up war in the past 60 years has changed anything or not.

My suspicions are that nothing has really changed, and that if America were to cut Japan loose, it would be a loving bloodbath in Asia all over again. I think the same questions linger about Germany post WWII and their role in the leadership of Europe. I'm more optimistic about Germany. Every single German I've ever met has it hammered into them what the country did in WWII, and I can see the country being mostly shy from doing anything aggressive for probably the next century. Unfortunately I can't say the same about Japan.

Adrastus
Apr 1, 2012

by toby

ryan8723 posted:

Anyone who thinks Japan is a pacifist country is delusional. They are a very conservative, reactionary society that is absolutely cuthroat in all aspects of business and they are still extremely nationalistic. Anyone who makes this mistake will pay for it dearly.

Exactly. Japan has been wildily successful in crafting an image of 'pacifist country' and 'victim of war' for themselves in the West, despite the fact that, on top of being the most racist, xenophobic and reactionary country in the East, their leaders literally worship war criminals.

Adrastus fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Sep 17, 2012

ryan8723
May 18, 2004

Trust me, I read it on TexAgs.
A big worry for me here is if Japan and China get into a conflict involving actual warfare that tensions in the Middle East will rise and that some of the countries there may take the opportunity to try something stupid as our attention is increasingly focused on Asia and we start shifting troops around.

A Japanese-Chinese war could very well set off another world war. This is why this situation is far more scary to me than the riots in the Middle East.

Modus Operandi
Oct 5, 2010

ryan8723 posted:



A Japanese-Chinese war could very well set off another world war. This is why this situation is far more scary to me than the riots in the Middle East.
I just can't see any scenario where this is a plausible reality. People keep forgetting that during the cold war far more provocative incidences occurred and nations kept their cool.

I really don't see this as anything but the bi-annual asia-pacific pissing match.

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PrezCamachoo
Jan 21, 2012

by Y Kant Ozma Post
Looks like a rather one sided pissing match to me. Notice the lack of Japanese people going out trying to burn Chinese businesses in Japan.

And this of course is the "most racist, xenophobic and reactionary country in the East" according to some posters here.

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