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Stroth posted:They're not criminal masterminds, with the one exception. Their plans will probably have some holes in them. Now you're literally making the argument that any parts of this theory that make no sense can automatically be attributed to the murderer making a bad plan. But if you step back a bit and look at it, this thread has latched onto a theory of this crime that is so incredibly complex and hinges on multiple chance circumstances going exactly right. Not to mention the fact that the entire thing is based on the faulty premise that there is a crawlspace underneath the floorboards, something I still see no evidence for.
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Feb 28, 2013 22:17
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Krinkle posted:I'm banking on Togami watching someone trying to retrieve the knife, and being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Togami was never the target. The plan would have worked on someone else if Togami didn't have night vision and shoo that person away. What if the person's not flush with the ground? You might or might not stab them. Again, what if no one notices the knife at all? It's still just a theory based on a killer hoping a person acts exactly in an intended way with no guarantee... or really even a great incentive. Togami even says "Oy, what are you doing there!" implying he saw someone, not something. Stroth posted:They're not criminal masterminds, with the one exception. Their plans will probably have some holes in them. But then it's not even a plan. You might as well just keep causing blackouts and hoping for the one day where someone will lay down during it so you can stab them and get away with it.
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Feb 28, 2013 22:24
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slowbeef posted:But then it's not even a plan. You might as well just keep causing blackouts and hoping for the one day where someone will lay down during it so you can stab them and get away with it. That skewer is long enough that even kneeling down to look under the table could put it in range of someone. Hell, Saionji or Hanamura probably wouldn't even need to kneel. Stroth fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Feb 28, 2013 |
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Feb 28, 2013 22:31
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Regy Rusty posted:Now you're literally making the argument that any parts of this theory that make no sense can automatically be attributed to the murderer making a bad plan. But if you step back a bit and look at it, this thread has latched onto a theory of this crime that is so incredibly complex and hinges on multiple chance circumstances going exactly right. Not to mention the fact that the entire thing is based on the faulty premise that there is a crawlspace underneath the floorboards, something I still see no evidence for. You can see from outside the cabin that there is space enough to crawl around under the floorboards. It's also a bullet point that there are holes in the floor. So, assuming that this cabin is a steaming pile of architectural poo poo, and the only thing seperating the ground from the floor is 1 layer of shoddy wooden planks, then there is just enough room to not really have enough leverage, or any kind of good angle to stab Togami 8 or 9 times across his torso..
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Feb 28, 2013 22:34
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Well, the simplest solution is often the best. Occam's Razor or whatnot. We still don't have all our evidence bullets either. Until we've finished the investigation, it's impossible to accurately re-create what happened. We need to search under the floor for clues, and the other rooms in the building as well. Nagito seems the most suspicious, which makes me hesitant to finger him for the deed. Difficult as well, we can't safely eliminate very many suspects. The photo girl is out, and it'd be hard for me to image the nurse managing to do the deed AND clumsily fall over like that. Her fall is significant somehow, but its hard to say if its an indication of guilt or merely a distraction from the real problem.
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Feb 28, 2013 22:34
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Regy Rusty posted:Now you're literally making the argument that any parts of this theory that make no sense can automatically be attributed to the murderer making a bad plan. But if you step back a bit and look at it, this thread has latched onto a theory of this crime that is so incredibly complex and hinges on multiple chance circumstances going exactly right. Not to mention the fact that the entire thing is based on the faulty premise that there is a crawlspace underneath the floorboards, something I still see no evidence for. Then Nagito is guilty of course. Only SHSL Luck would rely on a complex plan involving a lot of chance that needs everything to go exactly right.
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Feb 28, 2013 22:44
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[redacted]
Skunkrocker fucked around with this message at 09:05 on Feb 18, 2014 |
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Feb 28, 2013 22:48
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Stroth posted:They're not criminal masterminds, with the one exception. Their plans will probably have some holes in them. Much like Togami now does 
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Feb 28, 2013 22:51
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Skunkrocker posted:Holy poo poo I am a goddamn genius. Allow me to solve this whole thing all at once with two screenshots. While that very much could be significant, the table didn't seem to move that far, considering Togami was already far enough to the left that he'd have to be below the table anyway. EDIT: vv Apparently it might not even be significant. The Airconditioner has moved quite far as well. Gensuki fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Feb 28, 2013 |
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Feb 28, 2013 22:52
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Skunkrocker posted:Holy poo poo I am a goddamn genius. Allow me to solve this whole thing all at once with two screenshots.
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Feb 28, 2013 22:52
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Skunkrocker posted:Holy poo poo I am a goddamn genius. Allow me to solve this whole thing all at once with two screenshots. What about the other 2 tables that have also been "moved"? 
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Feb 28, 2013 22:53
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Look at the ceiling fan, top left. And that thing on the wall by it. Different angle.
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Feb 28, 2013 22:54
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Skunkrocker posted:Holy poo poo I am a goddamn genius. Allow me to solve this whole thing all at once with two screenshots. I don't think you've noticed yet but look at the second picture and back to the first, the table where Togami's body was found was never moved, you simply assumed that because one of these other tables weren't around that it was the table that Togami was found under. You should pay slightly more attention to the background because the table I'm talking about, the one wayyy in the back there, is clearly where Togami was found.
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Feb 28, 2013 22:56
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Skunkrocker posted:Holy poo poo I am a goddamn genius. Allow me to solve this whole thing all at once with two screenshots. These two screenshots are from a different angle. Keep in mind the background is a big 3D space. Also, if this were the case, the case would hinge on two screenshots which is pretty much absurd. Not to mention the effort it would take to shift that ENTIRE table in pitch black without disturbing the lamp. That being said, I do think it would be best for us to put the two murderers theory on the back burner for now and re-evaluate the situation as more evidence bullets pop up. I think the theory has a lot going for it, but there are a lot of holes in it, and when we've reached the point where we're mindlessly dismissing flaws in the argument, it's time to set it aside. Try to take further evidence objectively and see what other theories we can come up with, then when this chapter ends and we have all our evidence, we can put them all on the table and piece this together. Edit: Whoops, it looks like about... five or six people beat me to the table thing. drat you people and your fast typing fingers.
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Feb 28, 2013 22:56
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[redacted]
Skunkrocker fucked around with this message at 09:05 on Feb 18, 2014 |
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Feb 28, 2013 23:11
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Stroth posted:That skewer is long enough that even kneeling down to look under the table could put it in range of someone's eye or throat. Hell, Saionji or Hanamura probably wouldn't even need to kneel. Alright, I'll meet you halfway. Let's say, just for shits and giggles, the following. I'm just picking these people randomly. Kuzuryuu and Nagito conspire to murder... uh, Mikan, why not. Kurzuyuu says "I'm going to make a blackout occur. Plant a knife on the scene and stab someone." Blackout happens. The idea is Nagito is supposed to crawl under the table for the knife, but Kuzuryuu intends to betray him by stabbing him through the floorboards. But uh oh! Togami sees Nagito trying to grab the knife, runs over, and Nagito - being caught - drops the knife and backs off. Togami reaches under to grab the knife and is stabbed by Kuzuryuu through the floorboards. Okay. I don't see this plan working without an accomplice, and I don't know that accomplices have been brought up, so... I don't know. Someone in the room has to know about the knife for this to work. Otherwise, you're back to hoping someone sees a knife that's fairly well hidden (or you knew they had night vision in advance.) The only other way it works is if someone saw Nagito plant the knife, and banked on him crawling to retrieve it. I guess.
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Feb 28, 2013 23:12
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Skunkrocker posted:Um... yeah, I know, one screenshot is further back than the other and at a slightly different angle. I'm talking about the table's proximity to the carpet. In the flashback, it's completely off the carpet. Now it slightly overlaps it. It doesn't look like much but it has still been moved. Either that or the rendering engine is showing the new art asset as being closer than the previous one. .....No? Not really? The table corner doesn't overlap on the second, as far as I can tell. The tablecloth on the left does, because it's been pulled back. It's just the camera angles playing tricks on you. EDIT:  Okay, I can see how it might look like the table was pulled closer to the carpet, but really, it's such a minor loving thing that I doubt it's intentional. Color Printer fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Feb 28, 2013 |
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Feb 28, 2013 23:16
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slowbeef posted:The only other way it works is if someone saw Nagito plant the knife, and banked on him crawling to retrieve it. I guess. This is more or less what I had in mind as opposed to Nagito and the killer (we'll say Kuzuryuu) being accomplices. Kuzuryuu would formulate a plan to kill Nagito while he was trying to enact his own plan, which he knew would occur at exactly 11:30 under the table. At this point I'm waiting for more evidence to pop up. As has been said, we still don't know for certain that there was even space to crawl around under the floorboards to begin with, which this theory absolutely does not work without knowing.
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Feb 28, 2013 23:20
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[redacted]
Skunkrocker fucked around with this message at 09:05 on Feb 18, 2014 |
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Feb 28, 2013 23:26
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Color Printer posted:Okay, I can see how it might look like the table was pulled closer to the carpet, but really, it's such a minor loving thing that I doubt it's intentional. So is this the first time you've met half the people in this thread? Because "Useless, Minor loving Thing" is the banner they proudly fly above their heads, making the 2% of the time it actually is relevant all the more infuriating. Just look in the DR1 thread, with the Chihiro thing.
Captain Bravo fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Feb 28, 2013 |
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Feb 28, 2013 23:30
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Skunkrocker posted:The real question I haven't seen a good answer to yet: where did the knife come from? Only Hanamura had access to such things as far as we have been told and all his items were cataloged by Togami. Only thing missing was the skewer. I've actually mentioned a possible origin for the knife, the kitchen of the resturant that is in the hotel. It is, after all, the only other place that we know off that has kitchen knives, besides the supermarket, possibly. Edit: Captain Bravo posted:Just look in the DR1 thread, with the Junkos thing. Let's not go there, okay. I'm pretty sure that has been forbidden in this thread. RefinedUndefined fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Feb 28, 2013 |
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Feb 28, 2013 23:31
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so how exactly would floor-person even know when to stab? Togami lies on the carpet and if he wasn't moved the suspect somehow managed to blindly stab togami several times through the carpet.
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Feb 28, 2013 23:49
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Junkozeyne posted:so how exactly would floor-person even know when to stab? Togami lies on the carpet and if he wasn't moved the suspect somehow managed to blindly stab togami several times through the carpet. The red stripes are the carpet. The corpse is on top of the wooden planks, they're just drawn super dark. Actually, it's easier to see in this picture: 
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Mar 1, 2013 00:03
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Captain Bravo posted:So is this the first time you've met half the people in this thread? Because "Useless, Minor loving Thing" is the banner they proudly fly above their heads, making the 2% of the time it actually is relevant all the more infuriating. Just look in the DR1 thread, with the Chihiro thing. Look at the blood. There's none on the carpet but plenty on the tablecloth on the side facing the carpet. That's kinda weird. Not sure it's a smoking gun exactly (even if it was moved I'm surprised the blood didn't get on the carpet at all from the cloth) but it's still suspicious. That said, I'm still kinda interested in working out the line of thinking of the thread here -- Armanky posted:This is more or less what I had in mind as opposed to Nagito and the killer (we'll say Kuzuryuu) being accomplices. Kuzuryuu would formulate a plan to kill Nagito while he was trying to enact his own plan, which he knew would occur at exactly 11:30 under the table. Yeah, this would be where I'm coming from as well. I'm not even necessarily thinking the board was being stabbed through (like sticking a weapon through a knothole or the little bit of space between two slats -- this is what it sounds like people are suggesting or at least trying to argue against) anyway. This lodge isn't exactly built to code, and I wouldn't be surprised if the killer -- assuming they fit down there, which I'm willing to buy for now at least -- just slid out the floorboard a bit to get a good shot at Togami. Meanwhile that means there's a bit of the board either sticking out or hanging lower (depending on if it was slid out or tilted or something) which possibly was what Mikan tripped on. From the picture right before the power outage, depending on how long the boards are, Mikan could have been tripped up by one since she's standing in a place relative to the table and Togami where that might make sense -- when the board slides out, she trips on the end of it. Next thing to consider is whether or not the line of stabbitty-stab-stabs all line up with such a potential gap. The punctures all seem to line up with the length of a single slat. I mean, sure, a skewer might not fit between two boards, but if a board is slid out of the way, there's a lot more room to work with. Again, there are still a lot of unknowns -- we still don't know who, if anyone, could fit down there; neither do we know for sure that the panels can be slid out in this way -- but I think there's more going for it than what people are arguing. MUTEkI fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Mar 1, 2013 |
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Mar 1, 2013 00:13
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RefinedUndefined posted:I've actually mentioned a possible origin for the knife, the kitchen of the resturant that is in the hotel. It is, after all, the only other place that we know off that has kitchen knives, besides the supermarket, possibly. I wouldn't have figured on a multiple-location investigation right off the bat; usually even sequels have the first scenario as a "gimmie" style pseudo-tutorial to accommodate people who didn't play the first game, but perhaps Spike was figuring on more veterans than new players.
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Mar 1, 2013 01:17
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I really doubt Kuzuryuu is the culprit, it just seems like doing this sort of plan doesn't become a gangster. He'd have had a specific target in mind, and as people have been pointing out this murder could have been posed to kill anyone, and not Togami specifically. Maybe Nagito is involved because the only way that you could know the air conditioner would trigger a black out would be if you were in the hall and observed the fact. BUT what we don't know yet since the investigation isn't done is whether or not Nagito was in there alone at all. Or maybe someone came in while he was taking a break, decided to observe the surroundings, and then formulated the timing plan. I guess honestly we can all guess who it could be but there's not enough facts in the investigation to make a good enough deduction yet, although what I can say is based on the glow in the dark paint thing, the knife must have been taped to the table, and Togami saw the faint glow through the gap in the table cloth, went to check it out, got on HIS BACK to see the knife taped there, and then someone crawled in and stabbed him. This would reduce splatter because, you know, gravity. As for Togami being on his face he probably tried to crawl back out before he died and wound up rolled over like that, and as his face hit the ground it pushed the goggles up and off of his head. Because lets face it the floorboards theory IS kind of dumb.
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Mar 1, 2013 01:41
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TheGreatGildersneeze posted:I wouldn't have figured on a multiple-location investigation right off the bat; usually even sequels have the first scenario as a "gimmie" style pseudo-tutorial to accommodate people who didn't play the first game, but perhaps Spike was figuring on more veterans than new players. DR1 had a multiple-location investigation to start off with too: Naegi's room, Maizono's room, the Incinerator room, the kitchen, the AV room, and the gym. And something that the game bothered to update in the evidence list caught my eye that no one seems to have brought up: Evidence Bullet Updated posted:Monobear File 1 What's he reaching for? The goggles? The knife? Something else entirely? CandyCrazy fucked around with this message at 02:50 on Mar 1, 2013 |
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Mar 1, 2013 02:48
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The floorboards theory does kindof tie together a lot of the evidence we've got though (floorboards being spaced out, knife probably not being the murder weapon, lack of drag marks, stabs underneath the body in a kindof random pattern, missing skewer). It's hard to tie all this evidence together in a meaningful way otherwise. I have a suggestion for how the culprit could plan this without an explicit accomplice: Togami did plan the blackout in advance afterall. His intention was to create a fake murder scene with him as the victim (using the glowy knife). He did this because he wanted to see everyone's reactions - would they start suspecting each other? Would any of them crack and lose it under pressure? This would be valuable information, and since he was the only one with nightvision goggles and any form of weaponry it would be reasonable to think that no-one could commit murder in the dark. He needed someone to help him with this plan by hiding the knife and setting up the blackout. That person would probably be Nagito since he got in early to clean up (also if he is actually Naegi then Togami would have good reason to trust him). Nagito's role may also have extended to getting everyone else to leave the room so that Togami had more time to fake his death. Incidentally, note that Nagito only acts shocked after Monobear announces the death, not after they find the body. However, someone overheard them talking about this plan. They stole a skewer from the kitchen (Hanamura is a good suspect due to his failure to react to Mikan's fall and his access to the skewers) and hid it under the hut. They then located the table (easy to find due to the glowing knife under it) and hid underneath. When the lights went out and they heard Togami crawl under, they stabbed wildly at him a bunch of times then ran off. There's nothing really conclusive in favour of this theory but I think it covers most of the evidence pretty well.
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Mar 1, 2013 03:07
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Irony Be My Shield posted:The floorboards theory does kindof tie together a lot of the evidence we've got though (floorboards being spaced out, knife probably not being the murder weapon, lack of drag marks, stabs underneath the body in a kindof random pattern, missing skewer). It's hard to tie all this evidence together in a meaningful way otherwise. I'm still not on the "Nagito is Naegi" train, but otherwise I think this is actually a pretty solid theory. It would explain a lot about both Togami and Nagito's behavior before the party while also explaining his murder. It also makes Kuzuryuu a pretty good suspect again. It's also possible that Pekoyama is the one who overheard and told him, potentially to encourage him to murder someone and see what happened next. Although personally, my money remains on Hanamura.
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Mar 1, 2013 03:35
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I'm trying to figure out if anyone aside from Togami has really stood out this chapter. Free time doesn't count, obviously. Aside from Leon, the murderer and victims in DR1 received a lot of focus in the chapter up to the time of the murder. Granted, they weren't the only ones but this was so that the trial could build on the rest of the chapter. So, let's see what we have. Mikan- the unsettling MOE MOE MOE clumsy girl scenes. Might have just been fanservice, but why the hell is that scene an evidence bullet? Hanamura- the party is about food, he provided the food. Not much to go on here. Peko- volunteered to approach Kuzuryuu and guard the case. Suspicious, but well within the bounds of her character. Nagito- he has been present for most of the game, but is enigmatic. Had the best chance to set up the blackout and knife. Probably not going to die before we find out whatever big secrets he has, if any. Everyone else has pretty much just reacted to events and spouted a few character-establishing lines. This includes Kuzuryuu, who established himself as a dick and hasn't appeared since. I do believe that he will be relevant to the case, but probably not the as killer because he hasn't even been around. I've mostly moved past the actual process of the murder until we get more evidence. There isn't enough to go on in-game, so that leaves the meta-game.
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Mar 1, 2013 04:19
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kidcoelacanth posted:Much like Togami now does This thread needs more posts like this.
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Mar 1, 2013 05:04
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But do we have any evidence of there being substantial space underneath the floorboards? For all we know there might just be a foot or two's worth of space there. The skewers also look about as long as Peko's sword, which makes me want to suspect her, but she hasn't shown any sort of hostility towards anyone except maybe Teruteru. However, she seems like the serious sort who'd buy night vision goggles. I was actually expecting Nidai or Peko to go instead of Togami, but due to my vapid dislike of him fro DR1, I'm rather pleased.
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Mar 1, 2013 08:17
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It just occurs to me that whoever wants to murder with a hidden knife wouldn't need glow-in-dark paint after all. With correct positioning, you can get the knife by feel alone without hurting yourself - you risk less detection and less messy paint on your hand as well.
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Mar 1, 2013 08:53
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So I think that this much is clear: Either Nagito or Hanamura planted the knife and set up the air conditioner to turn on at a specific time, but I would bank on Nagito. He was the one who set up the entire area, including the table. He was there all day, so there's no chance that anyone could have gotten past him without his noticing. Since he was there all day, he also was able to discover that the air conditioner turning on would trip the circuit breaker and cause a power outage. He used glow in the dark paint and taped the knife to the bottom of the table; during the power outage he would grab the knife, stab a random person, and then toss it. Bing bang boom, random person is dead and there's no evidence to link it to Nagito, so Nagito would probably get away with it. He probably didn't even have a specific target in mind, he would just stab the nearest person. And in the photos, Nagito is standing very close to the table right before the power goes out:  Hanamura could have done all of this stuff instead of Nagito, but he left right before the power outage. So Nagito definitely planted the knife and set up the power outage. The murderer stole the skewer at some earlier point. The murderer learned of Nagito's plan and went beneath the floor before the 11:30 power outage. Using the glow in the dark tape as a target, he waited for movement and then started blindly stabbing through the floor. This means that the murderer is not Nagito; Nagito was going for the knife at this time. When the power went out, Togami donned his night vision goggles. He saw Nagito heading for the table and was able to cut him off and wrestle the knife away from him. Togami saved a life in doing this, but he was stabbed by the murderer through the floorboards in the process. The missing skewer is the murder weapon. This means that Pekoyama is probably not the murderer. She has been using swords all of her life, she'd probably know immediately whether she had just stabbed someone and wouldn't need to clumsily do it several dozen more times like the actual murderer did. The evidence all leans this way. So who is the murderer? The murderer has to be someone who was not in the dining room at the time of the power outage. We have photographic evidence of the 11 people who were definitely in the dining room at the time (plus a twelfth, the photographer); all of them are innocent. Nanami isn't in the pictures, but we spoke to her immediately after the outage (and I think before), so we know she was there the whole time. This leaves only a few suspects: Our Only Remaining Suspects, in order of suspiciousness: 1) Hanamura the cook -- in the kitchen, fetching more food, probably knew about the knife and the blackout 2) Kuzuryuu the gangster -- whereabouts unknown, may have known about the knife and the blackout 3) Nanami the gamer -- searching for Monomi, probably didn't know about the knife or the blackout Nanami wouldn't have known about the knife or the blackout, so I think that her departure right before the blackout is just a red herring. Hanamura could have discovered the knife, and he could have been present when Nagito learned that the AC would trip the circuit and cause a blackout, so he could have figured out Nagito's plan. Kuzuryuu also could have done these things; he's a total wildcard and could have been loitering around the lodge at the time. We don't have enough evidence to accuse anyone, but these are the only 3 people who could have committed the murder and one of them (Nanami) probably didn't know about the knife at all, so the murderer is most likely either Hanamura the Cook or Kuzuryuu the Gangster QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 10:04 on Mar 1, 2013 |
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Mar 1, 2013 10:00
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You do realize we're only one update out of I assume four or five of the investigation, right?
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Mar 1, 2013 10:15
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QuarkJets posted:So I think that this much is clear: I don't think Pekoyama knowing how to use weapons precludes her from being a suspect. It'd be hard to see through the tiny gap in the dark whether you had hit a vital area; for all the killer knew they were simply stabbing excess fat and not anything lethal. The worst possible scenario for the killer is for them to non-lethally injure someone, they'd be totally ostracized and get no more easy chances; better to make extra sure that they finished their target off.
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Mar 1, 2013 10:32
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slowbeef posted:The only other way it works is if someone saw Nagito plant the knife, and banked on him crawling to retrieve it. I guess. Yeah, it's what we've been saying. If we're guessing at motives, the only things besides the obvious but lame "I want out of here" would be Pekoyama killing off the killer before they get to act, in a kind of twisted sense of duty or something. Armanky posted:At this point I'm waiting for more evidence to pop up. As has been said, we still don't know for certain that there was even space to crawl around under the floorboards to begin with, which this theory absolutely does not work without knowing. I'd bet on it. The question will be where exactly can you enter the crawlspace. The toilet is looking suspicious. Skunkrocker posted:Also, the Nagito-planted-the-knife theory was brought up several times. That being said, it's credible on the account that he was setting up the party. However anyone could have placed that knife under that table when he left to get the carpet. True. The only real reasons I suspect Nagito specifically is his acting before and after the murder: standing next to the table and adamantly denying anyone killed Togami.
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Mar 1, 2013 10:58
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I'm just going to throw this out there: My guess is that three people are involved in this one. I think Togami put on his nightvision specs, saw someone going for the knife under the table, dashed across the room and dived under the table to wrestle the knife away from them, and got skewered from under the floor boards. Like someone mentioned before, I don't think the knife is the murder weapon. It's too out in the open and the blood on it doesn't look like it was used to stab someone.
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Mar 1, 2013 12:39
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HobblyBoy posted:I don't think the knife is the murder weapon. It's too out in the open and the blood on it doesn't look like it was used to stab someone. This is one facet I'm not sold on. There is an assumption being made based on how the blood appears on the knife, which is perfectly reasonable, but then we would have to assume that the blood splatter in the area by the knife should be consistent, but there appears to be more blood on the knife than in the immediate area where it was dropped. I have a feeling it was in someones hands during the attack. 
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Mar 1, 2013 14:50
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tiistai posted:Yeah, it's what we've been saying. If we're guessing at motives, the only things besides the obvious but lame "I want out of here" would be Pekoyama killing off the killer before they get to act, in a kind of twisted sense of duty or something. No it isn't. Maybe it's what you've been saying, but there's a ton of theories out there that all have Togami just happening to crawl under the table for no good reason except "he somehow saw the knife under the table."
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Mar 1, 2013 15:11
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