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dorkasaurus_rex posted:So maybe it's a tad early for this, but what's the math looking like for 2014? Are the Dems or Republicans more likely to gain seats? Where will they be gained? What are the margins? I'm curious if Nate Silver or anyone like him has gotten around to running the numbers yet. Think of it this way: the Senators up for reelection this year come from the 2008 cycle, where Obamamania was running wild and the Democrats won just about every seat possible (the closest things to 'exceptions' are probably Maine [where Susan Collins is likely unbeatable], Georgia, and Kentucky). As a result, 21 Democrats and 14 Republicans are up for reelection, including Democratic retirements in some red territory like West Virginia and South Dakota. A good list of the professional predictors and their early thoughts on specific races are on the Wikipedia page. Nate Silver also has a (somewhat dated) rundown. Whether the Republicans can get 6 seats to take the chamber is one thing, but it's hard to see the Democrats not losing seats (then again, this was the common wisdom for 2012 as well). Republican House gerrymandering/natural nature of rural vs. urban seats has been discussed to death (here's a good take on it which also puts it into the context of the current Congress), but the short version is the Democrats have a huge uphill battle to gaining a lot of seats there, and regaining the House is going to be very, very difficult if even possible.
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Apr 29, 2013 20:31
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2014 will be a bloodbath in my estimation. Not the kind this board is hoping for. The Times' Caucus blog ( http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/redistricting-likely-to-hamper-democratic-efforts-in-2014-study-finds/ ) just wrote about this study that explains just how safe Republican's house majority is, even discounting the kind of success opposition parties historically have in mid terms. It could be different, maybe, if the Democratic leadership focused on energizing the base. But given the way things just went down with the sequestration cuts to the FAA I find that really unlikely. All I'm doing is praying against a veto-proof majority.
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Apr 29, 2013 20:48
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 dorkasaurus_rex posted:So maybe it's a tad early for this, but what's the math looking like for 2014? Are the Dems or Republicans more likely to gain seats? Where will they be gained? What are the margins? I'm curious if Nate Silver or anyone like him has gotten around to running the numbers yet. Cook Political Report: 204 solid Republican, 28 lean Republican, 2 toss-up Republican, 6 toss-up Democratic, 29 lean Democratic, 166 solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: 194 solid Republican, 24 likely Republican, 12 lean Republican, 8 toss-up, 13 lean Democratic, 16 likely Democratic, 168 solid Democratic. These links are in the OP, by the way.
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Apr 29, 2013 22:34
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The Landstander posted:Whether the Republicans can get 6 seats to take the chamber is one thing, but it's hard to see the Democrats not losing seats (then again, this was the common wisdom for 2012 as well). Thankfully due to how abso-loving-lutely broken the senate is, either party has to have 60 senators to be able to accomplish anything. If you throw in the blue dogs, the republicans might just have enough seats to get 60 and then just run roughshod over everything but I don't know how many bluedogs are up for re-election and may just be outright replaced by republicans. What I'm interested in is if the senate races go really well for the republicans is if McConnell is ballsy/stupid enough to revoke the cloture rule. If he does he'll be betting heavily on a 2016 republican victory, though he'll probably just leave it in place, propose a bunch of terrible laws forcing Reid to filibuster and then blame the brokenness of the senate on the dems to help sweep 2016.
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Apr 29, 2013 22:46
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Zero One posted:Rep Gary Peters will announce on Wednesday he will run for Levin's Senate seat. There's some good news. Now we just have to find someone to run for Governor so we can kick the nerd to the curb.
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Apr 29, 2013 23:05
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The gun people will be really fired up to vote R, they're already buying up as many guns as possible and ammo is impossible to find.Okonner posted:All I'm doing is praying against a veto-proof majority. To override a veto you need 290 in the House and 67 in the Senate, that has to be way out of reach.. right? 
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Apr 29, 2013 23:22
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There are 34 Democrats who are not up for re-election in 2014 so the Republicans would need to win every single Senate election, plus have one of the Democrats die or resign and get replaced by a Republican to get 67 in the Senate. Or they'd have to create a new state.
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Apr 29, 2013 23:29
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Ted Cruz to announce the formation of a Freedom State in 2015.
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Apr 29, 2013 23:43
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Time to speed up making Puerto Rico a 51st state.Tatum Girlparts posted:Ted Cruz to announce the formation of a Freedom State in 2015.
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Apr 29, 2013 23:50
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Nah he'll just divide out a chunk of west Texas, tons of land and just like, five angry white people to pander to.
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Apr 29, 2013 23:52
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I'm pretty sure Ted Cruz's first choice for a new state would be a small circle around a hospital in Calgary.
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Apr 29, 2013 23:59
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I like how this unintentionally backs up Obama's original joke.
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Apr 30, 2013 04:15
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Joementum posted:I'm pretty sure Ted Cruz's first choice for a new state would be a small circle around a hospital in Calgary. You can have Alberta if Canada gets Minnesota and Vermont.
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Apr 30, 2013 05:42
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dethslayer666 posted:You can have Alberta if Canada gets Minnesota and Vermont. Don't leave us Californians to die in the horrible shithole that is America!  
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Apr 30, 2013 05:45
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Take Michigan with you, Canada! I want Kinder Surprises readily available, plus even more hockey, plus sensible methods of road snow removal (dirt).
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Apr 30, 2013 05:47
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Gen. Ripper posted:Don't leave us Californians to die in the horrible shithole that is America!
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Apr 30, 2013 05:54
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Lycus posted:No, no, take the deal! Then they have to take Michele Bachmann!  AsInHowe posted:Take Michigan with you, Canada! Justin Trudeau fucked around with this message at 06:31 on Apr 30, 2013 |
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Apr 30, 2013 06:29
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AsInHowe posted:Take Michigan with you, Canada! I've got good news...
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Apr 30, 2013 12:39
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Joementum posted:I'm pretty sure Ted Cruz's first choice for a new state would be a small circle around a hospital in Calgary. Mod of the year
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Apr 30, 2013 16:02
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In Terry McAuliffe's 2007 memoirs he recounts that his wife kicked him out of the hospital when she was having a baby and he went to a Washinton Post party. OK, that's not the most flattering story, but it's somewhat understandable. Then he tells about what he did on the way home from the hospital with his newborn child.quote:Dorothy was starting to well up in the backseat. She was having trouble understanding how I could be taking my wife and newborn baby to a fund-raiser on our way home from the hospital. We got to the dinner and by then Dorothy was in tears, and I left her with Justin and went inside. Little Peter was sleeping peacefully and Dorothy just sat there and poor Justin didn't say a word. He was mortified. I was inside maybe fifteen minutes, said a few nice things about Marty, and hurried back out to the car. I felt bad for Dorothy, but it was a million bucks for the Democratic Party and by the time we got home and the kids had their new little brother in their arms, Dorothy was all smiles and we were one big happy family again. Nobody ever said life with me was easy. What a likeable guy. 
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May 1, 2013 23:14
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Joementum posted:In Terry McAuliffe's 2007 memoirs he recounts that his wife kicked him out of the hospital when she was having a baby and he went to a Washinton Post party. OK, that's not the most flattering story, but it's somewhat understandable. Then he tells about what he did on the way home from the hospital with his newborn child. Ahahahaha. Hahahaha. Go gently caress yourself, McAuliffe. Talk about picking between a giant douche and a turd sandwich. /southpark
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May 1, 2013 23:23
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Gen. Ripper posted:Don't leave us Californians to die in the horrible shithole that is America! Hey if you fucks are going anywhere, Oregon gets to come with you. You're not allowed to escape without us and Washington coming along for the ride.
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May 1, 2013 23:27
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Magres posted:Hey if you fucks are going anywhere, Oregon gets to come with you. You're not allowed to escape without us and Washington coming along for the ride. Continental Drift is sort of making that inevitable.
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May 1, 2013 23:30
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Magres posted:Hey if you fucks are going anywhere, Oregon gets to come with you. You're not allowed to escape without us and Washington coming along for the ride. I was under the impression that the West Coast (and BC) was gonna split off and form the Environmentalist Utopia of Cascadia anyway.
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May 1, 2013 23:40
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Joementum posted:In Terry McAuliffe's 2007 memoirs he recounts that his wife kicked him out of the hospital when she was having a baby and he went to a Washinton Post party. OK, that's not the most flattering story, but it's somewhat understandable. Then he tells about what he did on the way home from the hospital with his newborn child. Holy poo poo, what a douche. I'm so sorry, Virginians--if you'd like we can lend you Deval Patrick for a while. He's not perfect, but he's a drat sight better than either of the turds you'll be choosing.
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May 1, 2013 23:51
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Gen. Ripper posted:I was under the impression that the West Coast (and BC) was gonna split off and form the Environmentalist Utopia of Cascadia anyway. Cascadia would last like a week before the OstroGOPs out there in the deep darkness of rural red counties noticed that they owned all the guns and started getting Ideas.
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May 2, 2013 00:01
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Alter Ego posted:Holy poo poo, what a douche. I'm so sorry, Virginians--if you'd like we can lend you Deval Patrick for a while. He's not perfect, but he's a drat sight better than either of the turds you'll be choosing. Jerry Brown is better. 
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May 2, 2013 00:14
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I'd give you Beebe but he's already our last line of defense against terrible laws. He recently had to veto a lovely 12 week abortion law. He isn't great, but I'd hate to see what this state would become if it had a full Republican majority.
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May 2, 2013 00:38
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Seoinin posted:Cascadia would last like a week before the OstroGOPs out there in the deep darkness of rural red counties noticed that they owned all the guns and started getting Ideas. It'd be a short fight. The rural areas are tiny compared to the rural areas. Two-thirds of Washington lives in Seattle Metro, and two-thirds of Oregon lives in Portland Metro. And rural California is virtually uninhabited. While the West/East divide certainly exists, the state GOPs only survive because there's lots of suburban moderates.
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May 2, 2013 01:01
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computer parts posted:Continental Drift is sort of making that inevitable.  Seoinin posted:Cascadia would last like a week before the OstroGOPs out there in the deep darkness of rural red counties noticed that they owned all the guns and started getting Ideas. That's what the state of Jefferson is for Magres fucked around with this message at 01:11 on May 2, 2013 |
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May 2, 2013 01:09
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Seoinin posted:Cascadia would last like a week before the OstroGOPs out there in the deep darkness of rural red counties noticed that they owned all the guns and started getting Ideas. I'm pretty sure Cascadia doesn't include anything east of the cascades. The US can keep that.
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May 2, 2013 08:39
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cheetah7071 posted:I'm pretty sure Cascadia doesn't include anything east of the cascades. The US can keep that. Cascadia doesn't have a fixed definition like Jefferson, but it can be extended out east as far as the next major liberal population centers, Boise, ID and Missoula, MT, and as far south as San Francisco, CA. - particularly if British Columbia and Alberta were to join as well. And even in its smallest extent, it generally includes all of Oregon and Washington. The population on the East side of the Cascades is miniscule - Bend is the only town in Eastern Oregon with more than 30,000 people, and most are far, far smaller. Kaal fucked around with this message at 08:54 on May 2, 2013 |
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May 2, 2013 08:46
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McAuliffe is a microcosm of everything wrong with the modern DNC
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May 2, 2013 17:58
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Who Said It? Terry McAuliffe Or A Character from House of Cards? I got a 6 out of 12 and I've seen all of House of Cards.
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May 2, 2013 23:00
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7/12 and I've never seen a single episode of that show.
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May 2, 2013 23:02
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11/12 Marathoned through House of Cards last week 
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May 2, 2013 23:05
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I got 8/12 and never saw "House of Cards".
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May 2, 2013 23:11
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Only got 4/12 but I've never seen House of Cards and I deluded myself into thinking that there was no way the absolute worst quotes could have really come out of a real person's mouth. What a fool I am.
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May 3, 2013 00:03
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It's pretty easy, anything remotely eloquent is from the TV show.
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May 3, 2013 00:19
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watt par posted:7/12 and I've never seen a single episode of that show. Same here.
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May 3, 2013 00:22
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