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Dias
Feb 20, 2011

by sebmojo

kidcoelacanth posted:

The simple explanation here is that she just didn't see them.

Didn't all the girls know where the meet-up was but Saionji and Miharu simply chose not to go? That was my impression, and in that case I'm still reserving my right to be suspicious of the little girl who just had her only friend murdered. :colbert:

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Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



If I had to take a stab at a timeline:

-Miharu sets up a confrontation with her murderer with photos (the likely contents of the envelope), killer kills her.
-Kurzyuu finds Mahiru's body, grabs the envelope of photos because they contain a secret of his, or he's trying to protect someone else (Peko?).
-Saionji finds Mahiru's body, has a panic attack (rightfully so). Doesn't call out to anyone because just about anyone could have done it, she trusts no one left alive.
-Souda finds the body, Monobear's announcement.

kidcoelacanth
Sep 23, 2009

Tenebrais posted:

More interesting is why the first person to find the body didn't report it, assuming Saionji was the second. Presumably Kuzuryuu, who did know there were people at the diner.

Given that is was more than likely Kuzuryuu, his reaction was probably something like "WELP not dealing with this, headin back to my room."

Van Dine
Apr 17, 2013

Bellmaker posted:

If I had to take a stab at a timeline:

-Miharu sets up a confrontation with her murderer with photos (the likely contents of the envelope), killer kills her.
-Kurzyuu finds Mahiru's body, grabs the envelope of photos because they contain a secret of his, or he's trying to protect someone else (Peko?).

Mahiru was still alive at the time Kuzuryuu was seen with the envelope, though. He didn't get that from the scene of the crime. Check update #46.

Narsham
Jun 5, 2008

Popo posted:

So the idea is that Sonia killed Miharu, left the mask or was wearing it to implicate/imitate the new serial killer (or she is said killer) and after getting covered in blood went back to her room and put on a wet suit to hide the bloody on her clothes? Wouldn't we notice if she was wearing her uniform under her wetsuit?
I guess she could have planned this all it way in advance and killed Miharu while wearing a swimsuit or some such so it'd be easier to hide under the wetsuit which is suitably absurd for this game but... I don't know.

Seems dangerous to proceed all the way across two islands while bloody to go back to your room. Clearly, the "no changing" rule for the apparent scene of the crime is going to be significant in solving it.

I also suspect that even if Peko's alibi is false, her statement about not being able to find the other islands while swimming is true. That rules out the possibility that someone swam out to the beach house and thus avoided passing the diner.

We do know a few things already:
1. Both Maharu and Saionji were already beachward before our hero showed up at the diner at 3 PM. We also saw Saionji depart.
2. Kuzuryuu walks past the diner. It's unclear, but presumably he's coming from the main island and sneaks out toward the beach during the distracting arrival of Ibuki and Mikan. This would be at 3:30.
3. Saionji runs past, heading away from the beach. Presumably she's seen Maharu's body, but that's not entirely certain.
4. It's unclear from the literal events whether Peko came from the beach, although as she's still wet that seems to be the likely explanation.
5. It's odd Sonia puts on a wetsuit to protect her skin but says she's never worn one before. Was her skin not at risk when she was in a swimsuit earlier in the game?
6. Souda then discovers the body and triggers the announcement.

Some important questions: Why were Maharu and Saionji at the beach earlier? How long were they there? Where was Saionji when Maharu was killed? (In the walk-in closet, perhaps?) Did Saionji know what Maharu was up to, or not? If Kuzuryuu did go to the beach house and was one of the body discoverers, where is he now? We haven't seen him pass the diner again. Maharu was dragged to that side door and her body blocks it from opening. Might that matter to the case? And is it possible that the killer figured out a way to move her body and exit the door it's up against in order to escape the beach house without being seen using the other door?

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
I was just looking at the original character art (in part just out of curiosity regarding how this artist shades and what kind of brush settings he seems to have) and is it just me or does Ibuki look like she has a huge scar on her leg? Traumatic injury in her past? Would it have been brought up if/when she donned her swimsuit?

kidcoelacanth
Sep 23, 2009

Hrm, I had been assuming this whole time that Kuzuryuu was coming from the beach rather than the island. If he was intercepted by Hinata while moving to the beach, that changes a lot of things and makes him much more suspect.

Also, just want to point out to everyone that the dead girl is Mahiru, not Miharu or Maharu. Dunno why that's bugging me so much.

Popo
Apr 24, 2008

Homestuck is a true work of art surpassing all of Shakespeare's works.
^^I don't know why I struggle with these names so much.

Pick posted:

I was just looking at the original character art (in part just out of curiosity regarding how this artist shades and what kind of brush settings he seems to have) and is it just me or does Ibuki look like she has a huge scar on her leg? Traumatic injury in her past? Would it have been brought up if/when she donned her swimsuit?

I really didn't want to drop any spoilers (not knowing any being the main reason) but I feel I should confirm that Ibuki is a Frankenstein's Monster type monster. I don't want to spoil much more than that other than to say she has a grudge against a certain werewolf.

Popo fucked around with this message at 18:48 on Jun 24, 2013

PhysicsFrenzy
May 30, 2011

this, too, is physics

Popo posted:

^^I don't know why I struggle with these names so much.


I really didn't want to drop any spoilers (not knowing any being the main reason) but I feel I should confirm that Ibuki is a Frankenstein's Monster type monster. I don't want to spoil much more than that other than to say she has a grudge against a certain werewolf.

Well, we've already had a SHSL Ghost... :v:

Kringlorr posted:


imma get that torgami

Hey, can someone repost the animal crossing QR codes someone made? I didn't see them in the fanart post.

KillerEggplant
Apr 2, 2011

Athar1007 posted:

I hate to say this, given ApplesandOranges's comment, but I think Sonia is a suspect. Why is she wearing a wetsuit, first of all? To cover up some blood on her person, perhaps ...?

She came from the same direction as everyone else, or presumably she'd have passed by the windows. I'd think it'd be pretty risky for her to commit the murder, then go back to her room to change.

RentCavalier
Jul 10, 2008

by T. Finninho
So, are Gundam and the Mobster the only ones completely without an alibi? We didn't even see them after the big bikini showcase--we see Kimono Girl and we see all the other girls, we don't see Nidai but get an account of his wherabouts from the Gymnast, so who else doesn't have any alibi at all?

PhysicsFrenzy
May 30, 2011

this, too, is physics

RentCavalier posted:

So, are Gundam and the Mobster the only ones completely without an alibi? We didn't even see them after the big bikini showcase--we see Kimono Girl and we see all the other girls, we don't see Nidai but get an account of his wherabouts from the Gymnast, so who else doesn't have any alibi at all?

Nagito's an unknown factor until we start the investigation. I believe we've seen (or heard about) everyone else.

Skunkrocker
Jan 14, 2012

Your favorite furry wrestler.
[redacted]

Skunkrocker fucked around with this message at 09:06 on Feb 18, 2014

NeuroticLich
Oct 30, 2012

Grimey Drawer

PhysicsFrenzy posted:

Well, we've already had a SHSL Ghost... :v:


Hey, can someone repost the animal crossing QR codes someone made? I didn't see them in the fanart post.

I assume this is the one you're talking about, I couldn't find any other posts with Animal Crossing QR codes.

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib
We haven't seen Monomi in a while, have we?

Kay Kessler
May 9, 2013

PhysicsFrenzy posted:

Well, we've already had a SHSL Ghost... :v:



You know, I don't know if this has been confirmed one way or the other, but is Hanamura wearing a sheet a pun on his name (Teruteru) being similar to those Japanese ghost decorations (teruteru bozu, I think they're called). I just sounds like something this game would do.

Ratoslov
Feb 15, 2012

Now prepare yourselves! You're the guests of honor at the Greatest Kung Fu Cannibal BBQ Ever!

Van Dine posted:

Although I agree provisionally with some of what you say about the other characters, I think you're being far too quick to say that Ibuki and Mikan definitely had nothing to do with the murder. We don't know exactly when the murder took place. Arriving early means nothing if the murder took place earlier in the day. Interacting with two of the guys doesn't really mean anything much either.

Which means Souda and (theoretically) Hinata don't have an alibi either, until we nail down a decent time of death.

Blueberry Pancakes
Aug 18, 2012

Jack in!! MegaMan, Execute!

Brannock posted:

We haven't seen Monomi in a while, have we?

Not since Hinata visited Komaeda, as I recall.

John Dyne
Jul 3, 2005

Well, fuck. Really?

Skunkrocker posted:

I'd agree with this if he was still missing from the house, but that's unlikely. Unless someone untied him. Now, out of the students who would do that?

Ironically enough, Mahiru probably would.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I think it's absurd to rule out Saonji as a suspect. Everything we know about her suggests she's a sociopath. I wouldn't be surprised if her friendship with Mahiru wasn't entirely on the level. The crying could have been an act.

kidcoelacanth
Sep 23, 2009

Spatula City posted:

I think it's absurd to rule out Saonji as a suspect. Everything we know about her suggests she's a sociopath. I wouldn't be surprised if her friendship with Mahiru wasn't entirely on the level. The crying could have been an act.

Why would she be acting if no one was around (which was the case as far as she knew)?

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib
Maybe she THOUGHT she was a sociopath until she actually murdered a human being and realized how terrible it was?

I dunno, but I do agree we can't really rule her out until we have more evidence.

might be wrong
Oct 11, 2012

kidcoelacanth posted:

Why would she be acting if no one was around (which was the case as far as she knew)?

I can see her killing someone on an impulse, but at the same time she's so childlike I can also see her instantly regretting acting on it. The problem is that this parallels the Twilight Syndrome game too well to be an impulsive murder.

e: now that I think about it, I'm buying the theory that Koizumi took pictures that somebody wants to keep hidden. I can see Saionji cozying up to her strategically, for whatever reason.

might be wrong fucked around with this message at 23:52 on Jun 24, 2013

TKMobile
Apr 30, 2009

Spatula City posted:

I think it's absurd to rule out Saonji as a suspect. Everything we know about her suggests she's a sociopath. I wouldn't be surprised if her friendship with Mahiru wasn't entirely on the level. The crying could have been an act.

She's not a sociopath, she's just an immature rotten brat. Not exactly a spoiled one since she's not demanding her way all the time, but if anything Saionji is only a dirty little snit. She only kills small insects or talks about such opposed to hunting down anything moving and stabbing the poo poo out of them, she mocks the others mercilessly especially the most clumsy girl in the class and calls everyone she doesn't like (and even then) names of varying cruelty but you never see her actually, like, strike someone. It's all teasing and petty, petty acts of cruelty.

Yet at the same time, while her dancing skills are SHSL, this classically trained dancer doesn't know how to tie her own obi-- she cannot dress herself-- and breaks down sobbing when she's called on it. Afterwards, she latches on to the only person who can help her, and while it doesn't make her a changed person by any stretch, that's what it took to win her over.

If you ask me, she's just a little kid who's gone from being constantly watched to getting cut loose. Mischief is now an option for her and she's just taking advantage of the natural impulse to do so. If I had to guess further, I would presume that she's been stuck in an extremely rigid environment all of her life where she's being prepped, trained, re-trained and expected to perform everything asked of her perfectly, with any mistake treated as a cardinal sin. All the while, everything from her wardrobe to actually putting the drat kimono on is done by someone else like she's a doll. Maybe she has a natural cruel side, *maybe*, but her breakdown makes me think otherwise.

You show me Saionji and I'm wondering where the Tiger Mom went.

TKMobile fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Jun 25, 2013

Ryushikaze
Mar 5, 2013

Not enough evidence to weigh in on the murder yet, IMO, but Pekoyama's statement about the Islands has convinced me that everyone is stuck inside a Matrix like AI, which explains the changes to the Island as it was, and the sudden appearance of Monobeasts, their defeat granting Island access, the Monobomb and the appearance of the game, the TVs on trees, etc.

The original plan for the 15 aided by the 'mole' was to more or less rehabilitate them, or prepare their hope to join the original SHSL survivors and restore the world from whatever happened to it. It seems pretty obvious most/all the crew was all involved the Worst Incident Ever somehow, either as bystanders or perpetrators.

The Mole is Chiaki. Or rather, Alter Ego. The reason why she doesn't know obvious things is she never learned them. The reason she's slow at times is because she has to divert her attention to the simulation from time to time, especially to help Monomi counteract whatever Junkobear is doing to the system.

Monomi is the rest of the SHSL gang's avatar, I guess? Or another AI whipped up as a decoy/ gatekeeper?

Oh, and Kuzuryuu's a chick

Ryushikaze fucked around with this message at 00:31 on Jun 25, 2013

Cuntellectual
Aug 6, 2010

Ryushikaze posted:

Oh, and Kuzuryuu's a chick

You have got to be kidding me.

RefinedUndefined
Jan 1, 2013

Just burn everything, that'll solve your problems.

Ryushikaze posted:

Oh, and Kuzuryuu's a chick

Of course, a reasonable, if somewhat unoriginal in parts, theory has to end with idiocy.

Epoxy Bulletin
Sep 7, 2009

delikpate that thing!
Fingers crossed for swimsuit trial and monospeedo :getin:

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

RefinedUndefined posted:

Of course, a reasonable, if somewhat unoriginal in parts, theory has to end with idiocy.

It's just wild guessing, honestly.

Epoxy Bulletin posted:

Fingers crossed for swimsuit trial and monospeedo :getin:

... Wow, okay, I kinda want this too.

Acornicus
Jun 10, 2013

TKMobile posted:

You show me Saionji and I'm wondering where the Tiger Mom went.

You actually said my thoughts perfectly. I really believe that Saionji is acting on her impulses on the island by using her new freedom away from all of the strict schedules and such she used to have. Her cruelness and attitude seem to be covering up what Saionji really is; a scared child on an island filled with people she doesn't know. I just can't believe that she really possesses the hatred and anger to kill not only someone on the island, but one of her few if not only friends on the island. I don't think she's our culprit.

Although on the other hand, I can't really remove or add any real people I suspect ((except maybe Sonia and Peko)) until we get more evidence. This case is going to be interesting.

Blueberry Pancakes
Aug 18, 2012

Jack in!! MegaMan, Execute!

Epoxy Bulletin posted:

Fingers crossed for swimsuit trial and monospeedo :getin:

Even better if no one reacts to it at all and it's just a thing that happens in the background of the case.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Ryushikaze posted:

Not enough evidence to weigh in on the murder yet, IMO, but Pekoyama's statement about the Islands has convinced me that everyone is stuck inside a Matrix like AI, which explains the changes to the Island as it was, and the sudden appearance of Monobeasts, their defeat granting Island access, the Monobomb and the appearance of the game, the TVs on trees, etc.

The original plan for the 15 aided by the 'mole' was to more or less rehabilitate them, or prepare their hope to join the original SHSL survivors and restore the world from whatever happened to it. It seems pretty obvious most/all the crew was all involved the Worst Incident Ever somehow, either as bystanders or perpetrators.

The Mole is Chiaki. Or rather, Alter Ego. The reason why she doesn't know obvious things is she never learned them. The reason she's slow at times is because she has to divert her attention to the simulation from time to time, especially to help Monomi counteract whatever Junkobear is doing to the system.

Monomi is the rest of the SHSL gang's avatar, I guess? Or another AI whipped up as a decoy/ gatekeeper?



I mostly believe this, but I think Chiaki is controlling Monomi, and isn't Alter Ego. And Togami was Togami's digital representation, I guess? Although that doesn't entirely make sense either. I still don't think the "mole" is a mole per se, but rather someone who isn't actually SHSL. So, our protagonist then. DR Zero sets up that whole prep school thing, where people thought they were getting a Hope's Peak quality education, and...weren't. It would be a terrific twist if our protagonist was one of the prime instigators of the despair thing.
Also, if it's a simulation, this Monobear is a computer virus.
I AM GOING TO IGNORE YOUR LAST REMARK.

TKMobile
Apr 30, 2009
A complete immersion VR where all the kids are hooked into SHSL SciFi Tubes or what have you...really sort of ruins the ambiance as well as dulling the impact of the murders. It would discredit the story, even if there's some MacGuffin at work that will terminate a kid when they die during this simulation. It's been discussed before, but with Peko's little swimming outing, I would not discount (yet) a slightly altered scenario:

The archipelago is fake. The entire set up is fake, but rather than the reveal be that the students are plugged into a Matrix-whatever, they're in some VERY elaborate and VERY huge loving basement that's... say, 50 some odd miles in diameter and deep enough to fill with enough water to simulate ocean currents and waves and whatever else. The sky''s part of a holographic dome, but the beach that the kids are standing on is real.

The kids themselves are real. The store and buildings are real, the murder weapons are real, it's just yet a much larger Sealed Up High school and nobody knows it. MB can still roll in on a thunderstorm, have giant robots show up out of loving no where, Chickens become cows and Monobear can and do whatever a Monobear can, but on a much larger scale because Real Life Danger Rooms haven't been invented yet.

This is as good as you're gonna get with the VR theory, unless the story is willing to compromise itself.

Ryushikaze
Mar 5, 2013

Spatula City posted:

I mostly believe this, but I think Chiaki is controlling Monomi, and isn't Alter Ego. And Togami was Togami's digital representation, I guess? Although that doesn't entirely make sense either. I still don't think the "mole" is a mole per se, but rather someone who isn't actually SHSL. So, our protagonist then. DR Zero sets up that whole prep school thing, where people thought they were getting a Hope's Peak quality education, and...weren't. It would be a terrific twist if our protagonist was one of the prime instigators of the despair thing.
Also, if it's a simulation, this Monobear is a computer virus.
I AM GOING TO IGNORE YOUR LAST REMARK.

If Chiaki is controlling Monomi, but isn't Alter Ego, then she's an incredible super high school level hacker in her own right.

Also, the Kuzuryuu thing was facetious. I am amused folks zeroed in on that rather than the rest of the speculation, though.

TroubleHalved
May 10, 2013
Maybe the game showed something bad that Mahiru did as a motive? And either she saw it on the game or was confronted about it. So she avoided the swimming to reason with the person who'd become her killer? Kuzuryuu's envelope is pretty suspicious. Did they contact each other?

Flocci
May 29, 2013

Terrible and bland.

TKMobile posted:

A complete immersion VR where all the kids are hooked into SHSL SciFi Tubes or what have you...really sort of ruins the ambiance as well as dulling the impact of the murders. It would discredit the story, even if there's some MacGuffin at work that will terminate a kid when they die during this simulation. It's been discussed before, but with Peko's little swimming outing, I would not discount (yet) a slightly altered scenario:

The archipelago is fake...

My feelings exactly. I think "Matrix" fake would be a cop out, but I'm totally cool with "Truman Show" fake. Even if people die either way, I want real blood to be spilled.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Ryushikaze posted:

If Chiaki is controlling Monomi, but isn't Alter Ego, then she's an incredible super high school level hacker in her own right.

Also, the Kuzuryuu thing was facetious. I am amused folks zeroed in on that rather than the rest of the speculation, though.

No, because notice how she's been "asleep" or playing video games frequently. That's part of why I think it's at least possible if not likely that she's controlling Monomi.

Ryushikaze
Mar 5, 2013

Spatula City posted:

No, because notice how she's been "asleep" or playing video games frequently. That's part of why I think it's at least possible if not likely that she's controlling Monomi.

I'm not saying it's not possible she's controlling Monomi. I'm saying she'd have to have Chihiro style skills to control Monomi during the trial while participating. Unless she was an AI controlling another AI facet.

Alberenza
Mar 28, 2013
If this were a simulation, why haven't the deceased classmates helped out their friends in the real world? Think about it, assuming there isn't a fail safe which kills them for real.

What would be the point of the school if this were reality? Surely Monobear kept that there to make absolutely sure that the kids picked up on the idea that the world may be ruined outside, as he claimed. If that were the case as claimed by DR1, then SHL Despair would probably have even more power by now, because this is a sequel with a dead Togmi and a self aware Monobear. Thus, he would have all kinds of machinery at his disposal.

How would Nanami control Monomi at the same time as herself? Sure the sleepy moments but does that imply that she's somehow psychic or whatever? I don't see that happening, not to mention Monomi and Nanami seem really different, and really quite honest people. Monomi has something to hide but she really believes in her hope stuff and I don't think any of er quirks are an act, same for Nanami. What's the connection? Real Junko was the perfect controller for someone like Monobear, but out of the current class no one fits either bill unless Monomi is somehow controlled by Nagito. Doesn't this entire situation mirror what he was talking about? Monomi brings hope, Monobear brings despair which plunges them from a great height to a great depth, so that they can claw their way back up. That's exactly what he wants to see, isn't it? If anyone is the mastermind, likely of both bears, it's probably Nagito. How? Probably something to do with Hinata's memories and robotics, I mean Nagito is clearly pretty smitten with Hinata, for whatever reason, implying a history. I'm not too worried at this point, there could be numerous reasons, such as both of the bears actually being AIs, but AI machines don't have to be in a virtual environment.

If Junko had an AI she probably would have used it instead of her own self, unless... SHE DID.
Seriously though she wouldn't have had the time and the only reason I can imagine her not using it is if she wanted to be in the thick of the situation herself, perhaps to make the despair more sweet when they find out that the mastermind was one of them and not some non nondescript person from far away I really don't know. She said she doesn't like plans going according to plan but she still plans things out pretty thoroughly, she would have used that thing.
Alter ego is also dead, definitely. Mainly because Junko wouldn't make the same mistake twice, heck, no one would. Alter Ego's appearance was a last ditch attempt at saving Naegi and if it had made its way onto the world wide web, it probably would have put a stop to the whole thing.

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JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

Alberenza posted:

If this were a simulation, why haven't the deceased classmates helped out their friends in the real world? Think about it, assuming there isn't a fail safe which kills them for real.
Well, in the event that this were a simulation, it could be that. Or any number of other things. Maybe their simulated deaths kill them or them go comatose. Maybe there's a support crew in the real world that imprisons them once they wake up. Who knows? But them dying and instantly having free reign of things honestly seems like the least likely outcome.

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