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Twiin
Nov 11, 2003

King of Suck!

jet sanchEz posted:

My friend in the bridal path has no mortgage, he paid cash for it. I don't think that this is very unusual in that neighbourhood, I don't think anyone in there works a regular job as we know it.

Can you ask your friend in the bridal path what day of the week is garbage day up there. Serious question.

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Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Cultural Imperial posted:

Bob rennie the yellow king of real estate is charging motherfuckers 25k to have lunch with mayor moonbeam

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Vancouver+condo+king+invites+person+donations+Gregor/9588886/story.html

Except he isn't, and the Province is continuing to show off its Conrad Blackian yellow journalism. Hell, you can even tell as you read the article that they lied to the "development professional" they interviewed in the same way as they were being duplicitous with that headline.

It's also a complete canard -- $25,000 per? That's chump change. Both Vision and the NPA's election campaigns last time around got funded way more than that by plenty of developers, Bob Rennie included (on both sides).

If the Province could actually do some investigative journalism into the bigger problem, rather than launching an obviously partisan sensationalistic attack piece, I'd be willing to give it more credence.

And "mayor moonbeam"? Besides the obvious crazies who comment on Vancouver newspaper articles, who says that?

E: It is at least good to see this entering the public consciousness, it's just that I'm 99% sure the NPA are doing the same thing, and it would be good to see that reported on, rather than the blatant political cocksucking this article represents.

Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Mar 7, 2014

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Oh sorry, next time I'll remember to address him properly as his lordship

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
Jerry Brown is the only "*official title* Moonbeam" and he currently holds office.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
"Special to National Post"

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/ho...date=2014-03-08

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I would do everything in my power to encourage these morons to buy. If more people languish in debt predatory when the market implodes, it puts all savers and renters at a vast financial advantage for decades to come.

Paper Mac
Mar 2, 2007

lives in a paper shack
I don't think ZIRP and bail-outs (-ins?) are very good conditions for savers, really.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009


Jesus Christ.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

The Globe and Mail actually wrote a not too terrible article that should loving hopefully knock some sense into people!

The Globe and Mail posted:

Think Gen Y will prop up Canada's housing market? Think again.

Heard about all the struggling members of Generation Y who wonder how they’ll ever afford a house? Steve’s not one of them. He graduated with an engineering degree in 2012, landed a full-time job several months later and has been saving aggressively.

Now, he’s thinking about home ownership. He wonders, is it wise for a young person like himself to buy now, or is the market headed for a fall as baby boomers unload their family homes? “I’m curious who they think is going to buy their houses at the prices they expect to get,” Steve said.

Steve, who lives in Mississauga, has done all the right things financially. He worked and saved hard in his student years and, with help from his parents, he graduated from university with no debts other than a small balance of a few hundred dollars on his credit card.

“I’m very fortunate in my situation,” he said. “But I feel like I’m a bit of an outlier. How many young people out there are swimming in debt and can’t even start saving up for a house down payment until their mid-30s?”

Meanwhile in Calgary ...

Home builders help drive civic election spending to record levels

The Calgary Herald posted:


:airquote:Home builders:airquote: help drive civic election spending to record levels

Campaign finance disclosures, obtained Tuesday by the Herald, show that while Nenshi was the top fundraiser with $510,589 in donations, ward candidates raised and spent at record-breaking levels thanks in part to home builders that supported the conservative Manning Centre’s foray into municipal politics.

The two biggest spenders, Ward 7’s Kevin Taylor and Ward 11’s James Maxim, each spent $276,500 for their losing efforts.

Taylor received more than two-thirds of his total donor haul from suburban developers, builders and contractors, according to a Herald analysis of his donor list.

One-quarter of his contributions came from seven suburban development firms that gave $10,000 each. Alberta’s legal maximum for candidate donations is $5,000, but an individual or corporation can give that amount every year — and those companies did so in 2012 and 2013.

After losing in Ward 7, Taylor sold his restaurant and earlier this year was hired as a general manager for Shane Homes.

That’s the company whose CEO, Cal Wenzel, was secretly videotaped saying he wanted eight of 15 council members on the industry’s side rather than the “dark side.” He’d also said he was one of 11 development leaders who’d each given Preston Manning’s think-tank $100,000 as the Manning Centre was launching municipal research and candidate education programs in Calgary.


[ . . . ]

In the past, many major developers said they were interested in supporting the democratic process, and gave equitably to several candidates.

United [Communities] was particular with its donations and spent heavily because of some council members’ rhetoric about the suburbs, said executive vice-president Chris Kolozetti.

“I don’t know what a good term would be — unfriendly or less friendly to the development side,” he said in an interview. “So the development industry and the housing industry reacted by supporting people they expected to think in a more positive way toward the industry, as opposed to the negative approach we’ve been getting.”


Remember, we shouldn't call these companies "land developers", they should be properly referred to as homebuilders.

Because that's what they do. They build sturdy, long-lasting homes that you can keep in your family for generations and proudly pass down to your children.



And best of all, they are located in thriving well established communities with plenty of walking trails and little lighthouses.



Truly this is the pinnacle of the human environment, and nothing could improve this or make it better in any way shape or form and if you have any of those kind of notions to begin with, well you're just crazy and should be immediately removed from city council with someone who has more sane ideas. Luckily these developers homebuilders have our best interests at heart and do just that!

sitchensis fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Mar 8, 2014

Alberta Cross
Sep 15, 2006
Fortis Et Liber

Who in their right mind would pay $2000 per month for 650 sq feet??? That's actually insane.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Paper Mac posted:

I don't think ZIRP and bail-outs (-ins?) are very good conditions for savers, really.

Savers, no, but competent investors have done very nicely in the past half decade.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



If the average price to rent a 1 bedroom condo is really $1875, which I highly doubt unless you're putting in some very specific qualifiers, then maybe you should rent an apartment, which are certainly not $1875 even downtown. I pay $1100 for a slightly smaller one bedroom. Surely they can find a 2 bedroom apartment closer than Liberty Village for less than $1800 (yes I know they can and that article is an embarrassingly poorly disguised paid advertisement).

And wait, did they seriously call Liberty Village a prime location? Prime for what, exactly?

Alberta Cross
Sep 15, 2006
Fortis Et Liber

eXXon posted:

If the average price to rent a 1 bedroom condo is really $1875, which I highly doubt unless you're putting in some very specific qualifiers, then maybe you should rent an apartment, which are certainly not $1875 even downtown. I pay $1100 for a slightly smaller one bedroom. Surely they can find a 2 bedroom apartment closer than Liberty Village for less than $1800 (yes I know they can and that article is an embarrassingly poorly disguised paid advertisement).

And wait, did they seriously call Liberty Village a prime location? Prime for what, exactly?

The patriotic Canadian in me would be loathe to live somewhere called Liberty Village, it sounds so American.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Alberta Cross posted:

The patriotic Canadian in me would be loathe to live somewhere called Liberty Village, it sounds so American.

Peace and Order Village on the other hand ...

Paper Mac
Mar 2, 2007

lives in a paper shack

Lexicon posted:

Savers, no, but competent investors have done very nicely in the past half decade.

If by this you mean financial asset prices have increased substantially since 2008, I don't really view that as a positive side effect of ZIRP and bailouts.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Perhaps you'd be interested in renting in Strong Stable Majority tower under construction in Calgary?

jet sanchEz
Oct 24, 2001

Lousy Manipulative Dog

Alberta Cross posted:

The patriotic Canadian in me would be loathe to live somewhere called Liberty Village, it sounds so American.

There used to be a little pocket of artists in and around Liberty Street who rented out spaces in old factories that were semi-converted to residential units. A couple of friends of mine were paying $400 a month for these gigantic units that were about a thousand square feet with 15 foot high ceilings, it was pretty sweet. The only real downside was that there was only one bathroom per floor so you'd have 15 people sharing it but everybody was pretty clean and respectful.


Now, yeah, it completely sucks down there, the stupid name is only the tip of the iceberg.

A friend of mine bought a pre-built condo in Liberty Village in 2009 or so as an investment and he had a hard time selling it last autumn, he had to lower the asking price two times before he was able to unload it. I think he only barely came out ahead as well, and he paid very little for it back in 2009.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Alberta Cross posted:

Who in their right mind would pay $2000 per month for 650 sq feet??? That's actually insane.

lol

“What we offer is affordability,” says Sam Crignano, president of Cityzen Development Group, one of the developers behind Garrison Point. He, like many people, believes the low interest rates we’ve been seeing won’t last much longer, that if you have a down payment, it’s a good time to buy. That’s especially true when you consider all the added benefits you get with buying a condo.

There’s added space thanks to common areas. “You have to look beyond the square footage of a unit,” Mr. Crignano says. “There are meeting rooms, there are theatres, there is a gym, we’ve got an outdoor swimming pool and a number of areas that are designated for children [they will be programmed for kids of various ages]. You’ll have a lot of spaces that are an extension of the home.”

Which is something that could benefit young families like the Doerksens. “Looking further down the road, purchasing a home is a great investment and one that is important to us,” Ms. Doerksen says. “By continuing to rent, we aren’t banking our money how we would like to be. We would rather be building equity than signing a rent check to someone else each month.”

etalian fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Mar 8, 2014

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Paper Mac posted:

If by this you mean financial asset prices have increased substantially since 2008, I don't really view that as a positive side effect of ZIRP and bailouts.

It's called a reversion to the mean, and has been going on in the equity and bond markets for well over a century.

Paper Mac
Mar 2, 2007

lives in a paper shack

Lexicon posted:

It's called a reversion to the mean, and has been going on in the equity and bond markets for well over a century.

Oh, is that what it is? I thought it was regulatory capture enabling a tiny clique of wealthy banks and institutional investors to extract enormous rents from the real economy, silly me.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Paper Mac posted:

Oh, is that what it is? I thought it was regulatory capture enabling a tiny clique of wealthy banks and institutional investors to extract enormous rents from the real economy, silly me.

You simply don't know what you're talking about, and are letting your [justified] anger at banks cloud your interpretation of how financial markets work. Every pension fund, RRSP and small time investor with a balanced portfolio has made out like a bandit over the past 5 years.

That's entirely orthogonal to whether regulatory capture and other shadiness goes on - it does - but the original conversation was about savings/investing.

Paper Mac
Mar 2, 2007

lives in a paper shack
It was about savers and renters, who haven't really benefited from the policy solutions chosen to deal with the last major housing crisis. You made the remark that investors have made out well, apparently because of the axiomatic attractive power of "the mean". I don't happen to believe that increases in prices in financial markets definitionally represent a reversion to some kind of historical growth path, particularly when there are many, many reasons to believe that comparisons to 20th century growth trajectories aren't particularly useful anymore. I think we agree that the post-2008 policy and regulatory environment was extremely favorable for the investment/capital class, I just don't happen to think that the fact that even grannies with RRSPs made out decently since 2008 makes the policy course chosen a net benefit for society (and, in particular, savers or renters), particularly given the ongoing consolidation of financial and political power, as well as the appearance of various investment bubbles, in the relevant markets.

e: I guess I should clarify that I took the collective group of "renters and savers" to mean "Joe Blow living within his means with a couple of TFSAs and a savings account" rather than the minority of people who have substantial investment income

Paper Mac fucked around with this message at 21:35 on Mar 8, 2014

Lobok
Jul 13, 2006

Say Watt?

Alberta Cross posted:

The patriotic Canadian in me would be loathe to live somewhere called Liberty Village, it sounds so American.

Pretty cool name it sounds like to me:

quote:

"Liberty Street", for which Liberty Village is named, was the first street both male and female convicts would walk once freed.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Paper Mac posted:

It was about savers and renters, who haven't really benefited from the policy solutions chosen to deal with the last major housing crisis. You made the remark that investors have made out well, apparently because of the axiomatic attractive power of "the mean".

Obviously it sucks and is awful to be poor anywhere/anytime, and especially in a country with a massive housing bubble. I'm not in any way attempting to diminish that. I'm coming from the rather more lighthearted position that (A) Investors have done super well, and (B) Renters with sufficient cash flow to participate in (A) and the discipline to not buy into stupid condo fever have done spectacularly well. Basically, this: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rticle14740574/

Paper Mac posted:

I don't happen to believe that increases in prices in financial markets definitionally represent a reversion to some kind of historical growth path, particularly when there are many, many reasons to believe that comparisons to 20th century growth trajectories aren't particularly useful anymore.

I don't agree, but this happens to be one of those big unknowable philosophical questions about economics and limits to human ingenuity, resource requirements, etc. We will see. All we have to go on so far is the historical record - and the bear case has been trumped time and time again at this point.

Paper Mac posted:

I think we agree that the post-2008 policy and regulatory environment was extremely favorable for the investment/capital class,

Definitely.

Paper Mac posted:

I just don't happen to think that the fact that even grannies with RRSPs made out decently since 2008 makes the policy course chosen a net benefit for society (and, in particular, savers or renters)

Well, no, and I agree, but that's a separate discussion entirely. We would all be far better off if 2008 hadn't happened.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3h4wv8_ko

"How China Fooled the World" - BBC 2 documentary on how China is fuuuuuuucked.

apatheticman
May 13, 2003

Wedge Regret

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3h4wv8_ko

"How China Fooled the World" - BBC 2 documentary on how China is fuuuuuuucked.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUSjMnmS5lI

Slightly better version, that one has weird cropping

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3h4wv8_ko

"How China Fooled the World" - BBC 2 documentary on how China is fuuuuuuucked.

It was pretty much taking the credit bubble concept to whole new level.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
It's pretty spectacular to increase your national debt by the same amount the American economy grew in 100 years, in 5 years.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

It's pretty spectacular to increase your national debt by the same amount the American economy grew in 100 years, in 5 years.

If anything I would argue that China had the best response to the 2009 global meltdown, the US did try priming the pump but it never got the required amount of spending to make a big dent in the problem.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...hboard/follows/

quote:

Why the doomsayers are wrong about Canada's housing market
By TARA PERKINS
A key measure used by economists has been underestimated, inflating price-to-rent data and feeding fears of a bubble

Canada's housing market isn't as frothy as some pessimists warn.

A Globe and Mail analysis has found that a key measure, used by economists, underestimates the degree to which rents have been rising in the market. That inflates what is known as the price-to-rent ratio, feeding into fears that the market is overheated.

A report to be released Wednesday by housing economist Will Dunning reaches a similar conclusion, going further and arguing that price growth likely has been overestimated.

Economists believe house prices are too high: Rock-bottom interest rates have spurred consumers to take on more mortgage debt than they otherwise might.

It's a legitimate cause for concern, and is being closely watched by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and the Bank of Canada. Both have expressed worries about some segments of the market in particular, including Toronto condos, that deserve special attention. House prices could very well decline, and the market will be tested when rates rise.

But the most bearish diagnoses of the market have been relying on flawed uses of data.

A report by New York-based economists for Deutsche Bank declared in December that Canadian home prices were overvalued by 60 per cent – the most in the world – with Belgium next at 56 per cent. "Canada is in trouble," it warned.

It looked at a variety of indicators to assess Canada, including the debt-to-income ratio and record condo construction. But the conclusion that home prices topped the global list for overvaluation was based on two measures, price-to-rent and price-to-income. The report said that the price-to-rent ratio was 88 per cent above its historical average, and the price-to-income ratio 32 per cent above its historical average. The economists averaged those two numbers, and got 60.

They gathered rent data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which in turn got the numbers from Statistics Canada, which compiles them for use in the consumer price index, a measure of inflation.

The data estimate price changes for a "constant quality" of rental units (comparing apples-to-apples units over time, or what economists call a "matched sample"). Statistics Canada says it is not meant to be a measure of change in prevailing market rents, and might not capture the shift away from apartments toward rented condos in cities such as Toronto.

The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the Toronto area last fall was $1,213 while the average rent for a two-bedroom condo was $1,752, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

"Like the CPI in general, the rent index provides a measure of aggregate price change holding the quality of products constant (i.e., 'pure price change')," a Statistics Canada information officer said by e-mail. "Inferences concerning the change in the average prevailing market rents is not something that the rent index is designed to provide."

Erwin Diewart, an economics professor at the University of British Columbia, says the federal agency should be taking depreciation into account since it is tracking a constant quality of product. (As the units age, their quality deteriorates and that should be factored in, or rent inflation is understated).

Even ignoring condos, the Statistics Canada rental index underestimates the market rise in rents, said economist Benjamin Tal of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

Mr. Tal calculated the price-to-rent ratio using apartment rents from CMHC. "Rent has risen twice as fast based on CMHC data than on CPI data," he said. "The CPI numbers definitely understate the increase in rent ... These numbers are widely used."

The CMHC numbers are difficult to work with. The housing agency releases separate measures for apartment and condo rents. Mr. Tal used apartments, compiling data from various Canadian cities and then weighting them by population to arrive at what he believes is a reasonable national measure of rents.

Deutsche Bank's analysis also relied on recent price data from the Teranet/National Bank house price index, and older data from the department of finance. Teranet seeks to go beyond averages by using a "matched" sample that tries to ensure a constant quality is being compared, only including homes that have sold twice.

It tries to factor out fluctuations that would occur in average prices from changes in the types and locations of homes that are selling. But Mr. Dunning argues that the price index is still exposed to bias because the actual quality of properties might have changed, for instance through renovations.

"The result might be that renovations of existing housing are causing the Teranet/National bank index to over-estimate the rate of house price growth in Canada," writes Mr. Dunning, who has his own housing research business and is chief economist of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, which represents mortgage brokers.

"The price-to-rent ratio in Canada is indeed at an historic high," but not nearly as far above its historic average as the OECD data would suggest, he concludes.

He also argues that measures of housing affordability have been distorted because economists are using posted mortgage rates (which have been about 5 per cent recently) as opposed to market rates (which for five-year fixed-rate mortgages have been in the neighbourhood of 3.5 per cent), making housing look less affordable.

Mr. Dunning is at the bullish end of the spectrum. He goes on to suggest that house prices are "justified based on record low levels of interest rates," and might even be under-valued.

Consumers need to be wary in the face of interest rates that are likely to rise and prices that, by any measure, have still shown remarkable growth. But the notion that Canada's housing market isn't quite as precarious as had been thought is becoming the dominant view.

"Housing crash fears are overdone," a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report said Tuesday, estimating that rising interest rates in 2016 could cause house prices to gradually decline 5 to 10 per cent over a couple of years.

Keep buying motherfuckers

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Vancouver has the highest rate of luxury car ownership in North America.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1446885/potent-symbols-new-vancouver-served-rolls-royces-china-plate

Kalenn Istarion
Nov 2, 2012

Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

Now that I can believe. It's eye popping walking around the downtown at times.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Keep buying motherfuckers

Isn't Tara Perkins typically more associated with the bearish side of the aisle? I guess she probably didn't write the headline - the article is far more nuanced than the headline suggests.

I don't doubt that there might be flaws in various metrics, but this whole thing does seem like grasping at straws a bit.

Also:

quote:

A report by New York-based economists for Deutsche Bank declared in December that Canadian home prices were overvalued by 60 per cent – the most in the world – with Belgium next at 56 per cent. "Canada is in trouble," it warned.

It looked at a variety of indicators to assess Canada, including the debt-to-income ratio and record condo construction. But the conclusion that home prices topped the global list for overvaluation was based on two measures, price-to-rent and price-to-income. The report said that the price-to-rent ratio was 88 per cent above its historical average, and the price-to-income ratio 32 per cent above its historical average. The economists averaged those two numbers, and got 60.

Quite aside from all things housing, if this passes for competent analysis at one of the world's foremost banking institutions, we are all well and truly hosed.

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006
Guten Abend, meine Damen und Herren.

quote:

Mr. Dunning, who...is chief economist of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, which represents mortgage brokers

Nope, no conflict of interest there.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Lexicon posted:

Quite aside from all things housing, if this passes for competent analysis at one of the world's foremost banking institutions, we are all well and truly hosed.

This is far, far from the worst analytic methodology I've seen this month.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

FrozenVent posted:

This is far, far from the worst analytic methodology I've seen this month.

:wth:

edit: can I ask - what do you do?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Lexicon posted:

Isn't Tara Perkins typically more associated with the bearish side of the aisle? I guess she probably didn't write the headline - the article is far more nuanced than the headline suggests.

I don't doubt that there might be flaws in various metrics, but this whole thing does seem like grasping at straws a bit.

Also:


Quite aside from all things housing, if this passes for competent analysis at one of the world's foremost banking institutions, we are all well and truly hosed.

I think Perkins is very unbiased in her reporting. She tries to do her best to report both sides of the argument about the state of Canada's housing market.

Re: dunning, Ben Rabidoux gives him props on Twitter.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I really think economists should be obliged to post their transcripts before publishing papers. That way I can just save time and filter out all the ones that didn't take stochastic processes or at least two or three differential equations courses.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

I think Perkins is very unbiased in her reporting. She tries to do her best to report both sides of the argument about the state of Canada's housing market.

I guess by bearish I meant 'consistent with reality and sanity', as to me they are essentially equivalent. I've yet to see an intellectually honest, salient bull argument at this point.

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Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

I really think economists should be obliged to post their transcripts before publishing papers. That way I can just save time and filter out all the ones that didn't take stochastic processes or at least two or three differential equations courses.

:lol: That'll be a short list, post-filter.

I'd be surprised if the average economist has taken any mathematics beyond introductory differential calculus.

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