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Burger Trench posted:Anecdotally, 2012 was obviously Luck/RG3, 2011 was Newton and maybe Clausen (possibly Dareus?), 2010 was Bradford, 2009 Stafford 2008 Long/Ryan. I might be moving the goalposts in my statement a bit, but it seemed to me around this time in previous draft seasons there weren't more than two players it could be. Could be wrong. Here let's look at this. 2012 - Luck, RG3, Kalil, Blackmon, Claiborne, Dontari Poe 2010 - Bradford, Suh, McCoy, Berry, Spiller, Trent Williams, Okung 2009 - Stafford, Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Crabtree 2008 - Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, Dorsey, Harvey, McFadden These were all guys that at any given time were being talked up as the sure fire #1 selection, or the surprise #1, or the BPA of the draft. It's almost never a 1 person game. The times where that has happened has been incredibly rare, like Bo Jackson/John Elway type of rare where teams will intentionally gently caress themselves over because they want that guy so much.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:21
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Doltos posted:Here let's look at this. No one in their right mind thought that Luck wasn't going first in that draft. From the moment the season ended it was pretty obvious that the Colts were taking Luck.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:24
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Call me crazy but I don't think Poe was ever in the conversation to be a top 5 pick much less #1
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Mar 10, 2014 20:26
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"Surprise number 1" is stupid, because it's just people trying to get page views by posting something shocking. Luck was going 1st overall in 2012 all along.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:27
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No, the surprise #1 is the guy that the media outlet didn't spoon feed to us during the process. Poe was absolutely in consideration because a man his size who moves that well was an anomaly. He was also getting mocked up there for a bit because people were considering scenarios where the Colts didn't go QB. There's nothing that guarantees any prospect of a #1 selection. The process exists for that reason. What you're seeing is the after effect of all those people saying Luck was the best QB since 2004. He had that rumor mill around him and came out and performed all season and throughout the draft process. That, combined with the glaring hole at QB for the Colts, why he was #1, not because of some manufactured storyline by draft pundits.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:32
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Doltos posted:No, the surprise #1 is the guy that the media outlet didn't spoon feed to us during the process. Poe was absolutely in consideration because a man his size who moves that well was an anomaly. He was also getting mocked up there for a bit because people were considering scenarios where the Colts didn't go QB. Yes, but that process was all but finished for him by the time his pro day rolled around. Everything after that was just a formality.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:33
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Doltos posted:No, the surprise #1 is the guy that the media outlet didn't spoon feed to us during the process. Poe was absolutely in consideration because a man his size who moves that well was an anomaly. He was also getting mocked up there for a bit because people were considering scenarios where the Colts didn't go QB. Can you provide a mock where Poe was #1? Bc I know he was a fast riser after the combine but people were still surprised when KC picked him. And all post-combine mocks had to reflect Luck's results too.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:37
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Detroit_Dogg posted:Sammy Watkins really wants to play for the Lions. Make it happen. I think they would have to trade up to the second position for this to happen. And I don't want them to have to give up what would be needed to do it. If watkins is there at five though, I think they move the right picks along.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:37
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Disillusionist posted:Can you provide a mock where Poe was #1? Bc I know he was a fast riser after the combine but people were still surprised when KC picked him. And all post-combine mocks had to reflect Luck's results too. Nope, don't care to find one either since it'll probably be some fan site mock, which are about as valid as anything you'll see from ESPN or NFL Network. Volkerball posted:Yes, but that process was all but finished for him by the time his pro day rolled around. Everything after that was just a formality. I agree, but the point is that these teams look at EVERYONE. They have the first pick in the draft, what are they gonna do? See a great player and close their eyes to everyone else? What we know as fans and what teams know as the people making the decision are two completely different monsters. The original question was there ever a time where there was a for sure #1 selection the entire time? The answer is no except for maybe Bo Jackson/John Elway/Earlier years where teams didn't have access to game tape for every prospect.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:40
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Doltos posted:I agree, but the point is that these teams look at EVERYONE. They have the first pick in the draft, what are they gonna do? See a great player and close their eyes to everyone else? Luck is kind of an outlier in that regard, imo. I'm sure the Colts did their due diligence, but come on. His pro day and his college career were something else. He was the for sure #1 selection for longer than anyone I can remember recently. Colts even said they were picking him well before the draft, so they were obviously sold early.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:44
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The only time you know a pick will for sure be #1 is if the team agrees to a contract beforehand.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:45
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There were some last minute click-bait "COULD IT BE RG3" articles but everyone knew it was Luck
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Mar 10, 2014 20:48
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Volkerball posted:Luck is kind of an outlier in that regard, imo. I'm sure the Colts did their due diligence, but come on. His pro day and his college career were something else. He was the for sure #1 selection for longer than anyone I can remember recently. Colts even said they were picking him well before the draft, so they were obviously sold early. Eh, doubt it. RG3 had a phenomenal college season and tested out amazingly in the draft process. It was a really big debate with Luck v RG3. There was also the debate that Luck or RG3 would be landing in a hell hole of a situation and that Kalil would be a good stepping stone to the 2013 draft. I agree that Luck was the best prospect, I've been saying that since 2011 and since the 2012 draft, I just think that to say there was a chance that he wouldn't be #1 is a valid opinion.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:51
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A team in Indiana was never going to take RG3 over a guy who looks like he works on a dairy farm.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:53
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I think RG3's ancestors worked on far more farms than Andrew Luck's
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Mar 10, 2014 20:57
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Doltos posted:I think RG3's ancestors worked on far more farms than Andrew Luck's Eh probably not. RG3's family were probably based more inside the house.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:59
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Jesus, that's pretty harsh...you'd fit right in on the ESPN roster.
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Mar 10, 2014 21:05
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Detroit_Dogg posted:Sammy Watkins really wants to play for the Lions. Make it happen. Does he: A) Love Marijuana? B) Have Psychological issues? C) Have multiple head traumas in college? D) Have unnecessary bouts of anger? E) Line up in the wrong position on purpose? (Really a sub clause of B) F) REALLY Love Marijuana? G) Have a history of problems with authority? If not, let's do this!
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Mar 10, 2014 21:06
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If Sammy Watkins makes it to the Lions then so many teams have hosed up, that they should probably just redo the draft.
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Mar 10, 2014 21:07
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Everyone in the NFL really loves marijuana, probably a lot of higher ups corporate types too
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Mar 10, 2014 21:08
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I used to blaze with Roger and Gene on the regular.
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Mar 10, 2014 21:11
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Comfortador posted:Does he: You forgot H) Realize that picking up spilled pizza while driving is not the best idea
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Mar 10, 2014 21:27
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Doltos posted:Eh, doubt it. RG3 had a phenomenal college season and tested out amazingly in the draft process. It was a really big debate with Luck v RG3. There was also the debate that Luck or RG3 would be landing in a hell hole of a situation and that Kalil would be a good stepping stone to the 2013 draft. It was a really big debate between Luck and RG3 amongst whom exactly? Because Indy was taking Luck from the moment the season ended.
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Mar 10, 2014 21:33
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Dexo posted:If Sammy Watkins makes it to the Lions then so many teams have hosed up, that they should probably just redo the draft. They're picking 10th, it's not that unfathomable given the needs of the rest of the top 10.
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Mar 10, 2014 21:54
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DangerKat posted:They're picking 10th, it's not that unfathomable given the needs of the rest of the top 10. He drops to 5 max. It would probably take the lions first and second to trade up to five. It is probably worth it but I would rather they take Evans at ten than give up their second.
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Mar 10, 2014 23:16
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Given the depth of the WR class, trading up to grab one specific one seems really dumb.
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Mar 10, 2014 23:40
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Sammy Watkins is on a whole different level than Evans in my opinion.
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Mar 11, 2014 00:40
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The homer in me wants Allen Robinson on the Steelers so loving bad. I kind of hope they draft two wide receivers because I like this class so much, that would require them to trade back at some point to get some extra picks though which probably won't happen
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Mar 11, 2014 00:48
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Detroit_Dogg posted:Sammy Watkins is on a whole different level than Evans in my opinion. Agreed, but I think Megatron with Marquise Lee would be a nice pairing. Not quite as ridiculous as Watkins and Megatron but not terribly far off.
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Mar 11, 2014 01:08
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Calvin/Watkins would be so unfair that Matthew Stafford would spontaneously combust on the first play of the season.
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Mar 11, 2014 01:11
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Detroit_Dogg posted:Calvin/Watkins would be so unfair that Matthew Stafford would spontaneously combust on the first play of the season. And his backup would still throw for 4500 yards
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Mar 11, 2014 01:13
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I doubt Watkins falls to ten which would leave Detroit with Evans, Lee, or OBJ to choose from in my eyes. That choice I'd go with Lee, he would just compliment Johnson so ridiculously well. Hope that doesn't happen as Lee would be great for Baltimore at 17.
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Mar 11, 2014 01:15
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I expect the Lions to take a WR in the first but instead they will finally pick the CB everyone had expected in years previous.
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Mar 11, 2014 01:17
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Detroit_Dogg posted:Calvin/Watkins would be so unfair that Matthew Stafford would spontaneously combust on the first play of the season. Stop getting my hopes up, you bastard. First that Instagram picture and now this and I'm gonna spend the next two months hoping Mayhew trades up to get him but instead we're just gonna draft Dennard or some poo poo. 
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Mar 11, 2014 01:19
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Dennard is really good and I'd be happy with that as well.
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Mar 11, 2014 01:23
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Mayhew's second players and second rounders picked in each draft he's been in charge of are: Brandon Pettigrew - Disappointment Louis Delmas - Dolphin Jahvid Best - Titus Young -  Mikel Leshoure - Benched Ryan Broyles - Darius Slay - Jury's out So they might be better off giving up the second round pick and getting Watkins.
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Mar 11, 2014 03:05
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Jahvid
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Mar 11, 2014 03:26
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You were the Best, Jahvid. Pettigrew looked pretty good at points this year, once he stopped the stone hands crap.
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Mar 11, 2014 03:45
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The Puppy Bowl posted:I doubt Watkins falls to ten which would leave Detroit with Evans, Lee, or OBJ to choose from in my eyes. That choice I'd go with Lee, he would just compliment Johnson so ridiculously well. Hope that doesn't happen as Lee would be great for Baltimore at 17. 6'0" 31 3/4" ARM LENGTH 192LBS. WEIGHT 9 1/2" HANDS 4.52 sec 40 38" vert 127" broad 4.01 sec shuttle 5'10" HEIGHT 30 1/4" ARM LENGTH 192LBS. WEIGHT 9" HANDS 4.57 secs 32.5" vert Can you guess which one is ryan broyles and which one is marqise lee? Lemme give you a hint, they both have knee problems. Lee is first I am not high on lee at all. Evans is a better player.
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Mar 11, 2014 16:20
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Evans is raw but is definitely the superior physical specimen. Lee was never going to test well at the combine, everyone knew that. He wasn't going to measure well, either. Lee's game comes from his actual ingame prowess in which he's just fantastic. He reminds me of a quicker Brian Robiskie, who was also a force in college but flatlined in the NFL. That's the problem with these low ceiling high floor type of guys. Sometimes you luck out and land a career route runner, like Reggie Wayne. Other times they just peter out and do nothing because we saw the best of them in college. I do think Evans is a much better fit for the Lions than Lee, though.
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Mar 11, 2014 16:39
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