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No one has yet to explain the motivation of why Russia would invade or even attack the Ukraine, I think this is just their way of showing them who's boss really and a kind of gently caress you come and get it tactic. It's just a way of showing dominance because the Ukrainian goverment knows they can't do jack poo poo. They're never getting Crimea back that poo poo is gone, and Russia is letting them know it. What would Russian even want with control of their country anyway.
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Mar 25, 2014 21:58
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Hollismason posted:No one has yet to explain the motivation of why Russia would invade or even attack the Ukraine, I think this is just their way of showing them who's boss really and a kind of gently caress you come and get it tactic. It's just a way of showing dominance because the Ukrainian goverment knows they can't do jack poo poo. They're never getting Crimea back that poo poo is gone, and Russia is letting them know it. What would Russian even want with control of their country anyway. Crimea. Fleet base. Thats basically it. I guess the Russians were kind of worried that the new Ukrainian government if it joined EU or NATO might cancel the lease on the Sevastopol base. Also I guess Russia just saw an opportunity to settle the matter decisively by just taking it for themselves as Ukraine was basically in chaos with no one to defend them, including themselves. As regards the rest of the Ukraine. Well its got industry and Russians, and it would allow Russia to secure Crimeas access to the grid. Also independent Ukraine is probably not going to be Russias friend again the near future, making the part that matters Russia might help that. Though I wouldnt bet on Russia actually taking eastern Ukraine. But, who knows really? Randarkman fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Mar 25, 2014 |
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Mar 25, 2014 22:03
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Timespy posted:Hard to even call it an act of war at this point, it's just robbery, plain and simple. Although even robbers usually ask nicely at first. It might also be a point of negotiation once this all starts to stabilize. "Sure you can have your ships back if we can sign something that normalizes that whole 'invasion' thing. Not like you can do anything about it anyway."
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Mar 25, 2014 22:13
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quote:Tatars Fear Repeat Of History  http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-crimean-tatars-ethnic-cleansing/25306118.html
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Mar 25, 2014 22:24
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I posted this last thread, no one really seemed to notice...but it certainly creeps me the hell out.
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Mar 25, 2014 22:49
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If they make a move on the Tatars we'll have a human rights disaster on our hands and things could get really ugly.
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Mar 25, 2014 23:01
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Norway has made a move. http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/fd....html?id=753887 quote:Norway has decided to suspend all scheduled bilateral military activities with Russia until the end of May 2014.
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Mar 25, 2014 23:11
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az posted:If they make a move on the Tatars we'll have a human rights disaster on our hands and things could get really ugly. While there's probably going to be the odd disappearance/murder and a fair touch of repression (I doubt settling the land issue is going to end in the Tatar's favor), I wouldn't be surprised if Putin makes an effort to avoid heavily oppressing the Tatars specifically to maintain the "we're liberating Crimea!" thing going for domestic consumption. As riddled with contradictions and feeble rationalizations as Russia's actions have been so far, they do still need to put on some kind of a show. It's the same reason why they didn't just gun down every Ukrainian soldier that got in their way.
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Mar 25, 2014 23:26
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Hollismason posted:No one has yet to explain the motivation of why Russia would invade or even attack the Ukraine, I think this is just their way of showing them who's boss really and a kind of gently caress you come and get it tactic. It's just a way of showing dominance because the Ukrainian goverment knows they can't do jack poo poo. They're never getting Crimea back that poo poo is gone, and Russia is letting them know it. What would Russian even want with control of their country anyway. It would seem that Putin has already given up on Ukraine and treats it as an asset captured by enemy. With this point of view, it is pretty logical to
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Mar 25, 2014 23:30
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az posted:If they make a move on the Tatars we'll have a human rights disaster on our hands and things could get really ugly. Just good old Jihad threat, if we look into the root. HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Norway has made a move. Not to even mention the crippling transcription of Shoygu's surname.
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Mar 25, 2014 23:43
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Hollismason posted:No one has yet to explain the motivation of why Russia would invade or even attack the Ukraine, I think this is just their way of showing them who's boss really and a kind of gently caress you come and get it tactic. It's just a way of showing dominance because the Ukrainian goverment knows they can't do jack poo poo. They're never getting Crimea back that poo poo is gone, and Russia is letting them know it. What would Russian even want with control of their country anyway. The primary motivation is probably that Putin felt like his popularity and reputation as a strongman was in danger of slipping due to the ouster of Yanukovych and decided to take Crimea in order to boost his support within Russia itself.
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Mar 25, 2014 23:43
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Norway has made a move. For two whole months!?! That'll show 'em! 
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Mar 25, 2014 23:48
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Cerebral Bore posted:The primary motivation is probably that Putin felt like his popularity and reputation as a strongman was in danger of slipping due to the ouster of Yanukovych and decided to take Crimea in order to boost his support within Russia itself. I think keeping the other bordering states in line was a big factor as well, he's shown he can walk in and annex a neighbour and no one can really stop him (NATO states aside).
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Mar 25, 2014 23:48
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Cerebral Bore posted:The primary motivation is probably that Putin felt like his popularity and reputation as a strongman was in danger of slipping due to the ouster of Yanukovych and decided to take Crimea in order to boost his support within Russia itself. Not to mention the more practical strategic concerns of getting a loyal government exchanged for a hostile one.
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Mar 26, 2014 00:03
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Every June/July for the last several years, a large military exercise between the United States and Ukrainian military has taken place in Ukraine. They are often joined by other nations, typically NATO members. http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/20/british-military-ukraine-exercise The United States has announced it will not cancel the operation and it will proceed as planned. They will also be joined by British forces, as well as forces from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Canada, Georgia, Germany, Moldova, Poland, and Romania. If things aren't more stable by then, this could make things really dicey. I wouldn't put it too far out the window of possibility to see the US/UK move the start date of the exercise to sometime in April, either.
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Mar 26, 2014 00:13
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Doctor Chaxtical posted:Every June/July for the last several years, a large military exercise between the United States and Ukrainian military has taken place in Ukraine. They are often joined by other nations, typically NATO members. Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia taking part is interesting. Armenia is particularly interesting since it has expressed its intention to join Russia's Eurasian Union when that thing finally gets off the ground. I wonder what Moscow thinks of this, although I suppose it's "just" a military exercise.
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Mar 26, 2014 00:24
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The Ukrainian Navy should've just scuttled its ships like the French fleet did at Toulon.
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Mar 26, 2014 00:34
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About a month ago someone posted a really fascinating article on the difficulty of extending state identity/nationalism to ordinary Belorussians because they had such strong regional identities, nationalism just didn't "click". Can anyone repost that article or link to the discussion in the last thread? I don't have archives or plat to search for it, but I'm doing a presentation for a graduate course on state formation and modern vs perennial nationalism and I think that'd be a fun example/outlier. Thanks in advance.
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Mar 26, 2014 00:40
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:I see others have already posted, but it looks like the last Ukrainian controlled ship was forcefully seized by the Russians. It's really bugging me how the Russians have done this and so far no response from Ukraine. It's a blatant act of war. Well I agree, but then again so was invading their country with troops and seizing territory. If Ukraine isn't going to respond to the occupation of Crimea then they certainly aren't going do anything about the plight of a few doomed warships. Ragingsheep posted:The Ukrainian Navy should've just scuttled its ships like the French fleet did at Toulon. I agree, and I've been thinking that ever since the Russians blockaded the harbor. But I'm sure that the Ukrainian captain was concerned about the degree of the loss to the Ukrainian Navy, and was hoping that they might eventually be allowed to leave port. Or it may be that they didn't have the explosives aboard that would be needed to scuttle the ship. In any event, clearly the risk was real. Kaal fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Mar 26, 2014 |
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Mar 26, 2014 00:51
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You don't scuttle a ship with explosives, just opening the outboard valves and turning on fire pumps will do the trick. There is no point of doing it in that lake because it's very shallow. Russians will just pump the water out and raise the ships. The environmental effects will be horrible though.
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Mar 26, 2014 01:04
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Burn them. Set fire to the fuel bunkers; fry the electronics. Detonate your magazine.
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Mar 26, 2014 01:05
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Sure, let's gently caress the civilians living around the area, including all the families of those sailors.
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Mar 26, 2014 01:09
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^^^^ Of all the reasons not to fight back during an invasion, maintaining the local environment is somewhat of a weak one. The fact that they didn't scuttle their ships makes me surprised they didn't put up as much of a fight when the ships were captured. True, some of the crews appear to have fought back and it's hard to tell what exactly actually went on (have captured sailors been released yet? Do we know if they're alive?), but you'd figure if you're not sinking your ship it's out of the belief that you'll get to use it at some point, and when Russians are coming to take it that's the point to use it! True, any Ukrainian ship that opened fire on Russian forces would probably be destroyed shortly thereafter, but then that just goes back to the "why not scuttle them?" point.
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Mar 26, 2014 01:10
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It seems pretty clear that Ukrainian forces are under extremely strict "don't hurt anyone" orders.
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Mar 26, 2014 01:12
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Fabulous Knight posted:Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia taking part is interesting. Armenia is particularly interesting since it has expressed its intention to join Russia's Eurasian Union when that thing finally gets off the ground. I wonder what Moscow thinks of this, although I suppose it's "just" a military exercise. As an Armenian with family still living over there, I too was shocked at the decision of Armenia to join the exercise. I imagine it was made some time ago, but pissing off Russia's not exactly a smart move on their part; They're already basically surrounded by people who hate them (Azerbaijan and Turkey) and Iran's sort of an international pariah, so that leaves Georgia and Russia. Also, Azerbaijan and Armenia taking part in a military exercise alongside one another was also a shocking idea.
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Mar 26, 2014 01:26
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Doctor Chaxtical posted:As an Armenian with family still living over there, I too was shocked at the decision of Armenia to join the exercise. I imagine it was made some time ago, but pissing off Russia's not exactly a smart move on their part; They're already basically surrounded by people who hate them (Azerbaijan and Turkey) and Iran's sort of an international pariah, so that leaves Georgia and Russia. Also, Azerbaijan and Armenia taking part in a military exercise alongside one another was also a shocking idea. I thought Armenia had kind of cordial relations with Iran?
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Mar 26, 2014 01:54
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Dolash posted:While there's probably going to be the odd disappearance/murder and a fair touch of repression (I doubt settling the land issue is going to end in the Tatar's favor), I wouldn't be surprised if Putin makes an effort to avoid heavily oppressing the Tatars specifically to maintain the "we're liberating Crimea!" thing going for domestic consumption. As riddled with contradictions and feeble rationalizations as Russia's actions have been so far, they do still need to put on some kind of a show. It's the same reason why they didn't just gun down every Ukrainian soldier that got in their way. With erdogan increasingly turning into a quasi-dictator on Putin-esque lines (with all the western distaste, pro-democracy 'meddling' and condemnation that engender), along with Turkey's massive dependence on Russian energy, there's a real chance Russia could partially or completely detach Turkey from the west. Which would be a massive coup and not something worth endangering just so some crimean racists can get their pogrom onand reclaim their sacred pig farms. I think the Russian government will do all it can to restrain the locals from doing anything nasty to the tartars, whether they can completely achieve this is unknowable
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Mar 26, 2014 02:11
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iv46vi posted:You don't scuttle a ship with explosives, just opening the outboard valves and turning on fire pumps will do the trick. There is no point of doing it in that lake because it's very shallow. Russians will just pump the water out and raise the ships. The environmental effects will be horrible though. Hmm good point I bet that some explosives would have been useful then. 
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Mar 26, 2014 02:12
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OhYeah posted:"Predatory things of our times" is one of the best sci-fi books ever written. I would recommend you start with that, although I'm not sure how goo the English translation is. Then check out "A billion years before the end of the world" and "Dead mountaineer's hotel". I actually think all of those books are better than "Roadside picnic". Their best novel, imo, is by far "The Doomed City" which has never been translated to english - a drat, drat shame.
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Mar 26, 2014 02:32
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Dolash posted:^^^^ Of all the reasons not to fight back during an invasion, maintaining the local environment is somewhat of a weak one. Imagine USA invading Canada, say for reason of national security or whatever. If the Canadian navy sails into Halifax harbour and blows their ships up who do you think will be most affected by the oil spills and collateral damage from exploding ordinance?
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Mar 26, 2014 03:15
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Berke Negri posted:What's the RT/Stephen Cohen spin and justifications for what Russia is doing to Ukraine's navy? Because those seem to be plain and simple acts of war. Mostly that the Ukrainians are gratefully switching sides and joining the Russian military. A sample story in that vein on Voice of Russia, from two days ago: "Ukraine’s Slavutich command ship flies Russian flag" /historynerd: Navy ships from defeated countries switching sides is a time-honored tradition (though it's not clear that is what is happening here) and happens to be the last time English and French forces shot at each other. Lum_ fucked around with this message at 03:35 on Mar 26, 2014 |
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Mar 26, 2014 03:32
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iv46vi posted:Imagine USA invading Canada, say for reason of national security or whatever. If the Canadian navy sails into Halifax harbour and blows their ships up who do you think will be most affected by the oil spills and collateral damage from exploding ordinance? You mean as opposed to if the invaders seize the ships and turns them against the Canadians? The captain of a naval warship has larger responsibilities than maintaining the quality of the local water. And I think that you're really exaggerating the potential risks here - scuttling a ship doesn't have to mean Exxon Valdez going up in a movie fireball. One should remember that this is a working harbor that already has a naval warship sunk in it. Kaal fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Mar 26, 2014 |
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Mar 26, 2014 03:35
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iv46vi posted:Imagine USA invading Canada, say for reason of national security or whatever. If the Canadian navy sails into Halifax harbour and blows their ships up who do you think will be most affected by the oil spills and collateral damage from exploding ordinance? You're styling it as though the Canadian navy would want to do that, which is as dumb as the Ukrainian navy wanting to scuttle their ships - they obviously don't want to, the question is whether it's better than the alternative of letting Russia take them from you. While you can obviously take this to absurdity, generally speaking not taking defensive action in a war because fighting is going to damage the local environment basically makes all defensive war-fighting impossible. Regardless, if anything sinking the ships in harbor might be a good way to leave the Russians with an expensive mess to clean up. It won't exactly endear the Ukrainians to the locals, but I think the point where that matters at all is entirely past considering they've voted to secede.
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Mar 26, 2014 03:38
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You are missing the fact those Ukrainian sailors are the locals. If you can imagine reasons for a canadian scenario to sound dumb those same reasons apply here.
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Mar 26, 2014 03:52
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iv46vi posted:You are missing the fact those Ukrainian sailors are the locals. If you can imagine reasons for a canadian scenario to sound dumb those same reasons apply here. Not exactly welcome locals, and I doubt they are really local. Being stationed someplace and being local generally is not the same thing, especially when your ship, your crew, your commanders, and your friend are being actively assailed and sieged by a foreign power, and for all you can tell the 'locals' support this new power.
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Mar 26, 2014 03:56
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Here's a pretty good summary of the state of Ukrainian fleet: http://www.janes.com/article/35861/ukrainian-navy-decimated-by-russian-move-into-crimea 80% of personnel were located in Crimea.
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Mar 26, 2014 04:21
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80% located in Crimea isn't surprising if it's Ukraine's major naval base. They might be stationed in Crimea but they might actually be "ethnic Ukrainians" from elsewhere in the country.
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Mar 26, 2014 04:30
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Easy way to scuttle the ships run the engines in neutral with out coolant till they bind up. Remove shaft packing, open sea docks and let the ships settle. No messy explosions or fuel leaks. Pain in the rear end to deal with and new engines aren't cheap.
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Mar 26, 2014 04:50
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Fabulous Knight posted:Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia taking part is interesting. Armenia is particularly interesting since it has expressed its intention to join Russia's Eurasian Union when that thing finally gets off the ground. I wonder what Moscow thinks of this, although I suppose it's "just" a military exercise. http://www.eur.army.mil/saberguardian/ They also participated in the Ukranian exercise last year: http://www.eur.army.mil/news/2013/20130708_RapidTridentOpens.html Elotana fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Mar 26, 2014 |
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Mar 26, 2014 05:36
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Doctor Chaxtical posted:Every June/July for the last several years, a large military exercise between the United States and Ukrainian military has taken place in Ukraine. They are often joined by other nations, typically NATO members. These exercises are very small scale and notable mostly for the fact they sell alcohol by the barracks every night so we got drunk with the Irish Rangers and the Serbs almost every night. Also this poo poo takes place by Lviv so its pretty far from Crimea edit: Georgia and Poland participate as well as all the countries already mentioned, its billed as a Ukrainian event with America being honored partners, not as a NATO event in Ukraine. Speaking of Poland those guys are loving awesome, even if they are crazy bastards who started chucking quarter sticks of dynamite at me to simulate their RPGs. Jarmak fucked around with this message at 07:38 on Mar 26, 2014 |
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Mar 26, 2014 07:31
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