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So what's happened in the last four months in Eastern Europe? A lot.  Today Ukraine signed the EU Association Agreement they were invited to sign back in November, and only four months to the day the old Ukrainian government turned it down. The "national security' issue the Ukrainian government claimed as the reason to say no was because in a secret meeting between former president Yanukovych and president Putin two weeks earlier Ukraine was promised $15 billion and cheap gas if they didn't sign the EU agreement. Also today Putin formally signed documents that annexes Crimea to Russia. The rest of the planet has promised to ignore the annexation. Russia, the EU and the United States are in a sanctions slap fight that prompted Standard & Poor's to downgrade Russia's credit rating.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awktDTuuGlg22,000 Russian troops who refuse to identify themselves still occupy Crimea. Troop buildup on the Ukrainian border makes many worried that Russia isn't finished annexing parts of Ukraine. Russia has also sent troops to the border with Finland and inside Belarus. Crimea on March 16 held a referendum vote to leave Ukraine and become part of Russia. The 'official' vote count was 97% in favor of leaving Ukraine and joining Russia. Russia gets to keep their ice-free navy base and Crimean Tartars are being relocated for social needs according to the Crimean government.  Ukrainian navy and military bases have either been stormed by Russian troops or surrendered by Ukrainian troops. One Ukrainian has died from the Russians storming bases and Ukrainian ships have also been seized by pro-Russian militants. Ukrainian enlistments into the military have dramatically increased. Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine have plans to hold joint training sessions on the near future. Everyone anticipates Russia attempting to grab more pieces of Ukraine, but so far they have only occupied Crimea. For a timeline of events leading up to what's currently happening with Ukraine and Russia, click this.    July 20, 2014 Ukraine has a new president, there are still rebels in Eastern Ukraine claiming they're a separate country now. No one else has recognized them as a country, and with recent events even less so.   Here is an article about an Armenian in Russia recruited through Vkontakte to go fight in Ukraine. Both sides of the conflict have militias made up of fighters from other countries. The pro-Ukrainian group Donbass Battalion has members from Georgia, Belarus, Russia and Spain. They are now under the command of the Ukrainian National Guard.  Live UA Map is a map of Ukraine with real-time updates on the conflict. Since President Poroshenko was inaugurated in June, Kyiv has attempted a ceasefire with the rebels that they refused to observe. Poroshenko has offered concessions which the rebels have refused. Most recently, there was an attempt to have a conference with the rebels via Skype, but the rebels couldn't be bothered.  On July 17 Strelkov, the former FSB Colonel who leads the separatist fighters, posted a status on Vkontakte claiming responsibility for shooting down what was believed to be a Ukrainian military transport. At the same time this transport was shot down, Malaysian Airlines reported losing contact with a flight that had just left the Netherlands headed to Malaysia. 295 passengers and crew were on board. When the rebels realized the plane that crashed was not a Ukrainian military transport, the internet was scrubbed of all postings related to the incident.  The flight recorders have been found and 196 bodies sit in five refrigerated cars. Since the crash on Thursday rebels have rifled through debris and luggage and moved wreckage, contaminating the crash site before investigators have had a chance to look at anything unhindered by the rebels. Some investigation groups were shot at when they tried to access the site. The United States claims they have proof that the missile that hit the plane was a SAM and it came from rebel-controlled territory in Ukraine.  [img] Other things that happened in Eastern Europe: The Balkans suffered through a terrible flood this spring that killed people and will cost billions to rebuild from. General Wojciech Jaruzelski, the Communist commander who imposed Martial law in Poland died. He was 90 years old. Belarus hosted the IIHF World Championships in Minsk in May but no one cared. Russia's military has a new logo. Or Mall of America is opening a branch in Russia.  This thread is for discussing anything related to Eastern Europe. The conflict in Ukraine dominates the conversation but any topic on Eastern Europe is welcome. Previous rules for the thread apply. If you have an obvious pro-Russian stance that sounds like the Russian version of my angry dad watching Fox News expect to get called out for it. Keep the Tom Clancy bullshit to a minimum. If you make claims without citing sources don't be surprised when someone asks you for a source. ABOUT SOURCES: We all know which sources are slanted (all of them) and which are reliable for good reporting. There are also websites that are terrible sources for news yet they do have one or two writers doing good work. Don't get mad if you see a Buzzfeed URL because it's more than likely an article by Max Seddon.  TEO is dancing on the previous Eastern Europe thread. HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Jul 21, 2014 |
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Mar 21, 2014 16:27
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In Feodosiya Ukrainian marine troopers state that negotiations with BSF RF have failed and they are expecting assault. Source.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:31
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What's up in places that aren't Ukraine?
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Mar 21, 2014 16:32
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26678700quote:15:27: Ukraine's Interior Minister Arsen Avakov says security services investigating corruption at the Agriculture Ministry have seized a large amount of money. $1.8m (£1m) has been confiscated from the first deputy head of Ukraine's veterinary and sanitary service, Vadym Simonov, and more than $340,000 (£200,000) was taken from former Agriculture Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk, Mr Avakov says.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:33
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Peel posted:What's up in places that aren't Ukraine? There are some energy shenanigans going on in Romania/Bulgaria, but I do not recall full details.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:33
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I would imagine that Russia is going to try and grab the predominantly pro-Russian area in the east, there are a lot of ethnic Russians there. If that happens, would the rest of Ukraine be able to survive on it's own? Based on my limited knowledge of Ukraine most of the wealth, industry, etc is in the Eastern portion. On a slightly different tangent, is there any danger of this kind of movement spilling over to other former Soviet republics? Are there ethnically Russian Kazakhs, for example, who might see this happening and say "we want to be part of Russia again too" ?
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Mar 21, 2014 16:35
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Poland status: Full of Poles
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Mar 21, 2014 16:35
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canuckanese posted:I would imagine that Russia is going to try and grab the predominantly pro-Russian area in the east, there are a lot of ethnic Russians there. If that happens, would the rest of Ukraine be able to survive on it's own? Based on my limited knowledge of Ukraine most of the wealth, industry, etc is in the Eastern portion. In some ways, that really depends on what Russia wants to do. There is some evidence that the ethnic Russians agitating in Eastern Ukraine are Russian "tourists". I would guess as long as Kazakhstan continues to play ball with Russia, it will not discover a hitherto unknown deep seated urge in some of their population to rejoin the Fatherland.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:40
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Peel posted:What's up in places that aren't Ukraine? Local elections in Belarus. I.e. nothing of interest.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:40
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Peel posted:What's up in places that aren't Ukraine? Hungarian elections in two weeks or so. At the moment the right-wing (quasi far-right) government is on track to recoup its super-majority and continue being an increasingly authoritarian pain for the EU.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:41
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How is Navalny's NYT op-ed playing among the Russian opposition? I can't imagine it looks good, trying to deploy US power against Putin.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:43
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SedanChair posted:How is Navalny's NYT op-ed playing among the Russian opposition? I can't imagine it looks good, trying to leverage US power against Putin. Russian state TV called Navalny an 'EU and CIA collaborator' yesterday so I doubt it'll help.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:45
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Everyone anticipates Russia attempting to grab more pieces of Ukraine, but so far they have only occupied Crimea. I think that is putting it a bit strongly. It is a legitimate worry and Russia does have the forces required mobilised in the region but I think that a sizeable number of people think Russia will hold off from rolling over Eastern Ukraine. It is something that was basically considered a wildly improbable event before what happened in the Crimea and is now a definite possibility though. SedanChair posted:How is Navalny's NYT op-ed playing among the Russian opposition? I can't imagine it looks good, trying to deploy US power against Putin. Considering all the talk of the threat of fifth columnists in Russia I think it's pretty easy to see how they'd frame this.
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Mar 21, 2014 16:57
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Peel posted:What's up in places that aren't Ukraine? The great Turkmenistan-Afghanistan War is at hand! Long live Turkmenbashi('s ghost or whatever)!!! quote:Late on February 26, three Turkmen border guards were shot dead along the Afghan frontier. Suspicion quickly fell on the Taliban. They, or people allied to them, are known to be in the area where the killings took place. The Taliban has since denied any involvement. In all honesty, I'm kind of amazed that Turkmenistan has managed to hold together after the death of ol' Mr. Crazypants Niyazov. It's always been such a decentralized land of tribal conflicts between groups of horse-ridden nomads, and there hasn't been all that much of a sense of shared ethnicity outside of the Turkmenbashi personality cult. I know Berdymukhamedov is still a pretty authoritarian leader, but he's no totalitarian. Then again, getting actual news out of Turkmenistan has always been difficult, so who knows. It could be coming apart at the seams and we just don't know it. e: Yeah, I know it's not Eastern Europe, but it's former Soviet, and Turkmenistan is always funny. Majorian fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Mar 21, 2014 |
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Mar 21, 2014 17:00
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Ah the Russian stock market continues to drop http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26678145 quote:Russian shares fall sharply on Western sanctions
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Mar 21, 2014 17:13
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March 25 is Freedom Day in Belarus. A day only a few bother to remember, it's the anniversary of Belarus attempting to set up an independent country in 1918. It lasted ten months before the Red Army and Poland divided it up in 1920. There will be a rally in Minsk. The BNR government is the oldest government in exile.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:23
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So is it fair to say that Russia lost this conflict pretty badly the second Yanukovych's regime fell? A few months ago it looked like Putin had successfully outmaneuvered the EU and was on track to reintegrate Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence without firing a shot. Now Putin has most of the international community pissed off at him and I would assume that Ukraine has probably been lost to the Russians for the foreseeable future and could easily end up joining NATO, which is exactly what Putin wanted to prevent. It seems like Russia slicing off the Crimea and annexing it was an attempt to make the best of a terrible situation.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:25
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Reminder that Alisher Usmanov, Uzbek oligarch and named member of Putin's "inner circle" has the sweetest Airbus: I guess "Bourkhan" was his dad and he has a yacht named after his mother. 
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Mar 21, 2014 17:34
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Shadoer posted:Ah the Russian stock market continues to drop I wonder what the Russian response to a steadily dropping market will be... ....oh who am I kidding, they'll just pretend everything is fine.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:34
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Helsing posted:So is it fair to say that Russia lost this conflict pretty badly the second Yanukovych's regime fell? A few months ago it looked like Putin had successfully outmaneuvered the EU and was on track to reintegrate Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence without firing a shot. Now Putin has most of the international community pissed off at him and I would assume that Ukraine has probably been lost to the Russians for the foreseeable future and could easily end up joining NATO, which is exactly what Putin wanted to prevent. It seems like Russia slicing off the Crimea and annexing it was an attempt to make the best of a terrible situation. Well, it's too early to tell for certain, but I actually don't think Russia lost all that much. Putin's regime didn't exactly engender any trust from the international community beforehand, and the sanctions against Russia are pretty weaksauce overall and probably won't last long anyway (although it's also probably the best the West can do at this point). The stock market is taking a dip, but that's also probably not permanent, and the Russian voting public doesn't see that as more important than the perceived geopolitical gains. People talk about Russia losing a valuable client in Yanukovich, but I actually question how useful he was to them anyway. I think Putin is perfectly happy to instead have a Ukraine that's probably not going to join NATO anytime soon, and is much more fragmented along ethnic lines than it was even before the crisis began. More importantly, he can claim to his constituents that this is an example of him standing up to big bad NATO and reclaiming part of the empire they they lost in 1991. (a really small part, but hey. Every little bit counts)
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Mar 21, 2014 17:35
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I agree with Majorian substantially, I think Russia hasn't lost much and what it has lost has been greatly exaggerated. There's evidence that the takeover of Crimea was planned well in advance so it wasn't (just) a heat-of-the-moment decision to make the best of a bad situation.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:37
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Majorian posted:Well, it's too early to tell for certain, but I actually don't think Russia lost all that much. Putin's regime didn't exactly engender any trust from the international community beforehand, and the sanctions against Russia are pretty weaksauce overall and probably won't last long anyway (although it's also probably the best the West can do at this point). The stock market is taking a dip, but that's also probably not permanent, and the Russian voting public doesn't see that as more important than the perceived geopolitical gains. People talk about Russia losing a valuable client in Yanukovich, but I actually question how useful he was to them anyway. I think Putin is perfectly happy to instead have a Ukraine that's probably not going to join NATO anytime soon, and is much more fragmented along ethnic lines than it was even before the crisis began. More importantly, he can claim to his constituents that this is an example of him standing up to big bad NATO and reclaiming part of the empire they they lost in 1991. (a really small part, but hey. Every little bit counts) Plus Putin managed to get out of bailing out Ukraine with billions of dollars, reinforced his image of invulnerability within Russia, and he gained the Crimea without a fight. Considering that he was likely expecting to end up in a war with Ukraine and be hit with crippling sanctions, he must feel like he's on 7th heaven right now.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:40
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Zohar posted:I agree with Majorian substantially, I think Russia hasn't lost much and what it has lost has been greatly exaggerated. There's evidence that the takeover of Crimea was planned well in advance so it wasn't (just) a heat-of-the-moment decision to make the best of a bad situation. Yeah, I think one of the advantages Putin had with Crimea was that, to people who had been observing the situation for a while, re-annexation had an aura of inevitability around it anyway. It didn't have to be violent, underhanded, or illegal, which is what it turned out to be, but I don't think too many people "in the know" thought that Crimea would remain part of Ukraine for very long. Shadoer posted:Plus Putin managed to get out of bailing out Ukraine with billions of dollars, Yeah, it's like I've said before: Putin doesn't want Western Ukraine. Ukrainians live there.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:40
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I've heard it was in preparation a few weeks ahead of time, but the crisis in Ukraine is several months old. I imagine Russia prepared troops to enter Crimea in case 'something' happened, but the nature of that something we will probably never be privy to.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:41
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The only people I have seen claiming that Russia is winning are Russians. My Russian friend has been posting interesting stuff on my Facebook wall and insists the government in Ukraine is an illegitimate junta. He also told me he was at the "real" march for peace on March 15 in Moscow that supported peace for Crimeans. He's referring to the bizarro march with the lockstep troops wearing matching red jackets and black trousers. Here is a picture he posted. He claims this little girl was at the March 15 demonstration supporting Ukraine.  Here is the translation he provided me: "Our grandfather were eating a poo poo. Our fathers were eating a poo poo. We are eating a poo poo. And you don't want? Kill you, bitch!"
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Mar 21, 2014 17:51
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Putin does win, because ultimately he succeeded in diverting the Russian people's attention while he continues to be super corrupt and consolidating his power.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:55
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Honestly, in my opinion, they're not winning, they've won. They've demonstrated for the first time in however many years that as a relatively developed regional power you can annex a territory from another sovereign state in full-blown imperialist style with only token repercussions. And that's a big deal. Depending on how he weathers the sanctions -- and I think he'll do fine -- Putin may well just have reasserted the primacy of politics over economics.
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Mar 21, 2014 17:55
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I don't really understand all the talk of "winning" and "losing." Isn't this pretty much over now? We should probably discuss whether Putin has "won" or "lost" (I'm inclined to think he won). Is there anything else to be resolved in this situation though, or is it time to get a new map? Edit: ^^ yeah
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Mar 21, 2014 17:56
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Zohar posted:Honestly, in my opinion, they're not winning, they've won. They've demonstrated for the first time in however many years that as a relatively developed regional power you can annex a territory from another sovereign state in full-blown imperialist style with only token repercussions. And that's a big deal. Depending on how he weathers the sanctions -- and I think he'll do fine -- Putin may well just have reasserted the primacy of politics over economics. Free trade and globalisation was supposed to bring peace, if that breaks down then we're in for a lot of poo poo. Is it too late rebuild domestic manufacturing so we don't just collapse when we stop getting winter jackets from China?
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Mar 21, 2014 17:57
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Zohar posted:Honestly, in my opinion, they're not winning, they've won. They've demonstrated for the first time in however many years that as a relatively developed regional power you can annex a territory from another sovereign state in full-blown imperialist style with only token repercussions. And that's a big deal. Depending on how he weathers the sanctions -- and I think he'll do fine -- Putin may well just have reasserted the primacy of politics over economics. “And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.” Here is hoping that history does not repeat itself.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:00
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KernelSlanders posted:I don't really understand all the talk of "winning" and "losing." Isn't this pretty much over now? We should probably discuss whether Putin has "won" or "lost" (I'm inclined to think he won). Is there anything else to be resolved in this situation though, or is it time to get a new map? I think it's kind of premature to say who's winning or losing. In the short term, I'd say Putin won. This could end up rallying support behind Ukraine's new government, causing Europe to seek energy independence from Russia, and at the very least will probably cause NATO to rally. On the other hand, it might cause China to behave much more aggressively, which could go either way for Russia. This was a very strange incident. Almost no one died, and the sanctions were trivial, but in the long term I think it's going to end up being a Big Deal in terms of global politics, especially if China gets in on the fun.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:02
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:The only people I have seen claiming that Russia is winning are Russians. My Russian friend has been posting interesting stuff on my Facebook wall and insists the government in Ukraine is an illegitimate junta. He also told me he was at the "real" march for peace on March 15 in Moscow that supported peace for Crimeans. He's referring to the bizarro march with the lockstep troops wearing matching red jackets and black trousers. Well, it looks a lot like something Russian liberals would put on a sign. Could be from any opposition's protest, though.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:03
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Demiurge4 posted:Free trade and globalisation was supposed to bring peace, if that breaks down then we're in for a lot of poo poo. Is it too late rebuild domestic manufacturing so we don't just collapse when we stop getting winter jackets from China? Though it's worth pointing out that China does not think like Putin. There's still reason to worry of flare ups in east Asia but I don't think on the new level seen in eastern Europe.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:05
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Berke Negri posted:Though it's worth pointing out that China does not think like Putin. There's still reason to worry of flare ups in east Asia but I don't think on the new level seen in eastern Europe. China is facing similar issues with a flagging economy and nationalism, and if they don't think the west will retaliate in a meaningful way it encourages them to at least go after their claims in the South China sea. I don't see them going after the Senkakus. On the other hand, China might be wondering how Russia will respond to Chinese attempts to increase economic influence in Central Asia.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:14
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If the west persists in the fantasy that Crimea is part of Ukraine, it'll be our maps that look silly, not Russia's. For me, it's tough to get a read on how much of a win this is for Putin. I was watching 2012 footage on RT of some kind of "citizens' open question time" with Putin where he looked very tough and wise. Finally, he took a call from a little girl who said something like "Uncle Volodya, we're very cold and don't have a lot of money where I live, but I would like a new dress. Can you be my fairy godfather?" I don't know how a society that swallows that poo poo works.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:14
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Adventure Pigeon posted:This was a very strange incident. Almost no one died, and the sanctions were trivial, but in the long term I think it's going to end up being a Big Deal in terms of global politics, especially if China gets in on the fun. Is the crisis over now? I thought there was still a lot to be resolved and a danger of the Russians invading Eastern Ukraine. And yeah, the Crimea is most definitely part of Russia now. Crimeans don't even want it to be any other way despite the referendum probably being overblown in terms of support for annexation. Russia "won", but to be fair, I don't think the EU/US/West could really have "won" in the Crimea in any case. An autonomous Russian majority area in a former Soviet republic that is not either in the EU or NATO... yeah. It was practically over the moment Putin decided "We're going there". Fabulous Knight fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Mar 21, 2014 |
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Mar 21, 2014 18:15
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It won't be 'over' until the political situation in Ukraine stabilises and we know what if any designs Russia has on Eastern Ukraine. And those aren't independent. A collapse in government authority or replacement by russophobic hardliners could prompt an invasion that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:23
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Zohar posted:Depending on how he weathers the sanctions -- and I think he'll do fine -- Putin may well just have reasserted the primacy of politics over economics. Definitely agree with you on this. I never really saw economics taking primacy over politics anyway - "geopolitics" was only lying dormant, waiting just beneath the surface.  Berke Negri posted:Though it's worth pointing out that China does not think like Putin. There's still reason to worry of flare ups in east Asia but I don't think on the new level seen in eastern Europe. Yeah, part of the reason why I don't see something too terribly similar with China is because they've never been too revisionist a country in the international context anyway. They obviously want Taiwan and the Sengokus back, but beyond that, China has traditionally been more interested in what's going on inside its own borders. I'm no Hegelian, and I take talk about "national character" with a grain of salt, but I do think there's a geopolitically conservative ethos inherent in Chinese culture. They already either have everything they want in their country, or else they have the capacity to build it themselves. They aren't too interested in expansionism on the whole. (all that bloviating aside, I'm no China expert, and I could be 100% wrong on this!)
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Mar 21, 2014 18:23
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You and the president of Lithuania seem to agree on that. http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/65599/we-are-on-verge-of-cold-war-lithuanian-president-grybauskaite-201465599/ quote:The signature of the political part of the association agreement between the European Union and Ukraine could lead to additional difficulties in relations with Russia, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė said on Friday, also stating that the world is on the verge of a Cold War. I understand she is the favorite to win again in upcoming elections.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:24
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Berke Negri posted:Though it's worth pointing out that China does not think like Putin. There's still reason to worry of flare ups in east Asia but I don't think on the new level seen in eastern Europe. Taiwan declaring independence or the North Korean regime collapsing have the potential to be be several orders of magnitude above what we've seen in eastern Europe in my opinion. Let's hope I'm wrong.
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