Eastern Europe: Ukraine's EU Victory Dance vs Dugin's Russia Uber Alles

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HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Mokotow posted:

Every time this thread drifts into theorizing about a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic countries, a part of me dies.

This thread isn't the only place where people are theorizing that. Polish officials seem to be convinced Russia's not finished invading Ukraine to liberate Russian speaking people. Anyone with a Russian speaking population is probably concerned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62EEByJ-nbk

Stanislav Kasei posted:

In a military sense, the whole machine of ready for it, because for a long time, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers stationed on the border and train without interruption. Doctrine in this situation are very important because they are nothing but a preparation of various scenarios. A staff officers have the map the different options already spent. Soldiers stretch, and the engines warmed military equipment. One word - war machine is ready, and now it all depends on political will,

http://www.tvp.info/14576163/czy-obok-putina-znajdzie-sie-ktos-kto-polozy-mokry-recznik-na-rozgrzana-glowe

# ? Mar 28, 2014 14:44

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# ? May 18, 2024 22:23

Hollismason: Jun 30, 2007; FEEL FREE TO DISREGARD THIS POST

It is guaranteed to be lazy, ignorant, and/or uninformed.

I thought Russia was doing really badly financially speaking. I don't see how they could support a war, unless the goal is to go back to the good ole days where that poo poo don't matter.

Maybe they'll just piecemeal invade and take the Ukraine, slowly but surely secure the border and just keep extending it or whatever.

I don't think they'll outright invade the Ukraine though , it seems they want it destablized and another pro russian government back in power.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 14:49

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

The Russians will do everything they can to troll Ukraine, and they will probably be successful. However, it also means that relations between the two countries will be frosty for decades to come, unless there's an electoral upset allowing Russophile parties to form a government. I don't see that happening anytime soon, though.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 14:54

Dusty Baker 2: Jul 8, 2011; Keyboard Inghimasi

steinrokkan posted:

The Treaty of Lisbon includes a Mutual Defense Clause independent on NATO. So member states are obliged to protect other members regardless of the NATO membership of any party.

That's what I read last night, I was just unsure of what exactly it meant. From the way I read it, I thought it was more of a "mutual aid" clause that could be interpreted as mutual defense, but wasn't explicit in that manner. The whole military section of the EU is pretty difficult to understand, at least for me (using wikipedia) due to the overlapping and redundant articles and treaties and such.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 14:55

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

That would be a less costly and more effective way to bring Ukraine back to their influence. Destabilize from within and people will eventually get sick of it and want the good ole days back. Yanukovych was robbing the nation blind, but at least we didn't have the continuing threat of violence.

The story about Right Sector "storming" the Rada yesterday was either hundreds violently attacked or a few went in, sang their anthem and left.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 14:55

CSM: Jan 29, 2014; 56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:

The US establishment thinks that, sure, but do the american public think dagaupils is worth even the bones of one dead marine? Fighting Russia means real casualties.

A more likely scenario is the Visegrad countries or even Poland alone offering major assistance. But the Baltics are essentially indefensible and its likely Russia, with the initiative, could take them before an effective response can be coordinated. Poland might go to war but its hard to see them taking back the Baltics without massive American assistance (entire marine divisions worth of assistance)

This argument has been made about a hundred times in these threads now and it's still completely and utterly retarded. When the poo poo goes down, and Russia invades any NATO country, it's probably game over for everyone. In the best case just a conventional World War 3.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 14:58

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

That would be a less costly and more effective way to bring Ukraine back to their influence. Destabilize from within and people will eventually get sick of it and want the good ole days back. Yanukovych was robbing the nation blind, but at least we didn't have the continuing threat of violence.

The story about Right Sector "storming" the Rada yesterday was either hundreds violently attacked or a few went in, sang their anthem and left.

That reminds me. There was supposed to be an emergency Rada session today regarding Avakov and Sashko Bilyj's death. Anything came out of this yet?

E: yep, Avakov is fired.
http://ru.tsn.ua/politika/v-rade-zaregistrirovali-zakonoproekt-ob-otstavke-avakova-357499.html

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Mar 28, 2014

# ? Mar 28, 2014 14:58

Dusty Baker 2: Jul 8, 2011; Keyboard Inghimasi

Paladinus posted:

That reminds me. There was supposed to be an emergency Rada session today regarding Avakov and Sashko Bilyj's death. Anything came out of this yet?

E: yep, Avakov is fired.
http://ru.tsn.ua/politika/v-rade-zaregistrirovali-zakonoproekt-ob-otstavke-avakova-357499.html

Is this likely to calm things down, or will Bilyj's party still seek vengeance?

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:06

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

The story about Right Sector "storming" the Rada yesterday was either hundreds violently attacked or a few went in, sang their anthem and left.

There was some interesting after-talk from that. Right Sector leaders were claiming their peoke were restraining the would-be seigers, while the acting president claimed the more aggressively oriented people were Russian agents...which strikes me as a bit of a deescalation? At any rate it seeks today's protests were uneventful.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:07

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

Doctor Chaxtical posted:

Is this likely to calm things down, or will Bilyj's party still seek vengeance?

I don't think they'll be satisfied before he's arrested at least.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:19

amanasleep: May 21, 2008

Obama actively trolling Putin in speeches says to me that everybody has already agreed that Russia gets Crimea and the greater powers are going to chill with just sanctions. Putin gets to troll Eastern Europe with troop buildups and provocative actions but this is destabilization/psychological poo poo to seed the ground for possible long term installation of political puppets down the road (like what failed this time around in Ukraine). In the short term Putin has shored up his political support at home. Crimea was itself already the big risk (and we won't know whether Putin ultimately won or lost something there for another generation).

There is no way in hell that Putin views Crimea as an Anschluss that presages a swift takeover of former Soviet territories, but it is pretty useful to him for everybody else to worry about that.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:20

OhYeah: Jan 20, 2007; 1. Currently the most prevalent form of decision-making in the western world

2. While you are correct in saying that the society owns

3. You have not for a second demonstrated here why

4. I love the way that you equate "state" with "bureaucracy". Is that how you really feel about the state

Baloogan posted:

What about the 25% of your population that is Russian? The same guys who might be pissed you tore down their war memorial.

My guess, and it is only a guess: few would turn against the Estonian government, a bit more would actually join to fight the Russians because they have so strong economic and societal ties to Estonia and Europe in general, most would simply try to stay the gently caress out of harm's way. The majority don't want to see a single Russian soldier on our territory and that is a fact, because they have nothing to gain from it. Life in Estonia is better than in Russia, even with all the problems of integration that still haven't been solved.

Ardennes posted:

The national guard units still need time to mobilize, and it may take days, that very well could make the difference.

You are talking about general mobilization. The defense league guys can mobilize within HOURS, not days or weeks. I don't know if you have noticed this, but Estonia is actually quite small. Our cities are compact, distances are short and we have some experience in urban warfare: when the Soviet Union was breaking up, our capital was very quickly shut down to prevent tanks and artillery showing up by placing huge slabs of granite in all the access points. By the time the Russian convoy would reach Tallinn, the airspace would be filled with NATO fighters and possibly choppers, all the highways would be blocked and the city would be filled with thousands of paramilitary armed with AK-47s. And trust me the Russians know that as well as I do.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:21

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Mokotow posted:

Every time this thread drifts into theorizing about a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic countries, a part of me dies.

But would that be enough to elicit a NATO response? How many battalions could your other parts muster? Are your nukes an effective deterrent?

I'm starting to feel like Putin is really and truly interested in reconstructing the USSR.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:23

Filipino Freakout: Mar 20, 2003; by Nyc_Tattoo

Would the US, or, I don't know someone like Saudi Arabia, trying to tank oil or natural gas prices be effective at 'sanctioning' Russia?

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:25

Gin and Juche: Apr 3, 2008; The Highest Judge of Paradise
Shiki Eiki
YAMAXANADU

Discendo Vox posted:

But would that be enough to elicit a NATO response? How many battalions could your other parts muster? Are your nukes an effective deterrent?

I'm starting to feel like Putin is really and truly interested in reconstructing the USSR.

I can't speak too much for the Central Asian states, but he is going to have a hard time doing that in Europe. The Baltics had the disadvantage of being former Russian territories before WW1, made independent, some fascist governments were created (I forget in which ones), then a takeover by USSR, then Germany, then USSR again.

The Baltics are now simply too stable to be under any real credible threat for a takeover. That and there is no strategic reason for Russia to take them over.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:30

az: Dec 2, 2005

Incantus posted:

Would the US, or, I don't know someone like Saudi Arabia, trying to tank oil or natural gas prices be effective at 'sanctioning' Russia?

Very much so.

Anyway, Putin isn't done yet with Ukraine. Yanuks speech today and the increasing levels of Russian mobilization plus Russian agents operating in the eastern Ukraine create a scenario that they are trying to either break off the eastern part through unrest or jack the heat up under the interim government in Kiev in the hopes they get another Kremlin friendly one. Note: This does not mean that something is definitely going to go down. This means they are looking for cracks to apply pressure to and may act on it.
Also seeing how a few Baltic goons may be worrying, the mobilization in the northwestern front (aimed at the Baltics) is just a show, for time being.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:48

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

In any real sense, all that is "on the table" for Western movement is maybe Eastern Ukraine and that is a stretch otherwise it is extremely problematic. Granted, Putin is still pushing Russia interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia but that isn't a "European" story.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:49

Dolash: Oct 23, 2008; aNYWAY,
tHAT'S REALLY ALL THERE IS,
tO REPORT ON THE SUBJECT,
oF ME GETTING HURT,

Discendo Vox posted:

But would that be enough to elicit a NATO response? How many battalions could your other parts muster? Are your nukes an effective deterrent?

This is like a laundry list of all the worst digressions of the last thread.

If I were that fired Minister I would consider getting the hell out of the country, or at least out of any city with a Right Sector presence. There's a real chance of a revenge killing. Still, if he really did order the assassination of a Right Sector leader he probably does deserve to be kicked out, that's unlikely to be legal and also raised tensions for no benefit.

The toughest angle of any further Russian interventions in Ukraine is the more of Ukraine they take, the more hostile the territory they're taking becomes and the more hostile the rump state of Ukraine becomes afterward. Taking Eastern Ukraine would involve actual fighting and pierce the "liberation" illusion for a fair number of Russians, and all it'd achieve is remove a large chunk of pro-Russian Ukrainians from the rest of Ukraine and swing the rest of the country's politics further toward aligning with Europe.

It might just be easier to sit there, looking ready to invade at any moment, but never do it. Keep Ukraine unstable and panicked. It's not like Ukraine can afford drawn-out tensions, and it keeps factions bickering rather than rallying against an invasion.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 15:52

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Paladinus posted:

E: yep, Avakov is fired.
http://ru.tsn.ua/politika/v-rade-zaregistrirovali-zakonoproekt-ob-otstavke-avakova-357499.html

That's not what the story says, though? Someone proposed a bill to fire him, but that doesn't say it passed.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:02

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:

The US establishment thinks that, sure, but do the american public think dagaupils is worth even the bones of one dead marine? Fighting Russia means real casualties.

A more likely scenario is the Visegrad countries or even Poland alone offering major assistance. But the Baltics are essentially indefensible and its likely Russia, with the initiative, could take them before an effective response can be coordinated. Poland might go to war but its hard to see them taking back the Baltics without massive American assistance (entire marine divisions worth of assistance)

I am unable to think of a strategic goal that would be more important to the US than the continued existence of NATO. Maybe continued access to mideastern oil, but that may be number two.

If Article V is invoked, Canada mobilizes. Thinking that the US, and the rest that actually use their military don't because "meh Estonia" is the height of nonsense. Joe Six-pack in Kansas couldn't point to it on a map and really doesn't care, but they know what a Russian is and NATO is the lynchpin to 60 some years of strategic defense.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:08

Fabulous Knight: Nov 11, 2011

Discendo Vox posted:

I'm starting to feel like Putin is really and truly interested in reconstructing the USSR.

No kidding. He knows he can't get it back in its exact form, but poo poo, dude wants to build the Eurasian Union upon the "best values of the Soviet Union". To be more precise he wants to make Russia the new Soviet Union and in many ways it is already just that. The difference is of course that none of the other former USSR republics aside from maaaaaybe Belarus want to become part of Russia again. Russia itself is very much like what the USSR probably would have been like if it had never ceased to exist and had given up on the Communist ideology. And had lost a tremendous amount of its political power.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:32

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

az posted:

Yanuks speech today

Is there any tl;dr available?

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:33

Shadoer: Aug 31, 2011; Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

Support a feminist today!

A good article about Putin when he first came to power:

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26769481

quote:

Vladimir Putin: The rebuilding of �Soviet� Russia

The world was stunned when Russia invaded Crimea, but should it have been? Author and journalist Oliver Bullough says President Vladimir Putin never kept secret his intention to restore Russian power - what's less clear, he says, is how long the country's rise can continue.

On 16 August 1999, the members of Russia's parliament - the State Duma - met to approve the candidacy of a prime minister. They heard the candidate's speech, they asked him a few questions, and they dutifully confirmed him in the position.

This was President Boris Yeltsin's fifth premier in 16 months, and one confused party leader got the name wrong. He said he would support the candidacy of Stepashin - the surname of the recently sacked prime minister - rather than that of his little-known successor, before making an embarrassing correction.

If even leading Duma deputies couldn't remember the new prime minister's name, you couldn't blame the rest of the world if it didn't pay much attention to his speech. He was unlikely to head the Russian government for more than a couple of months anyway, so why bother?

That man was a former KGB officer, Vladimir Putin, and he has been in charge of the world's largest country, as president or prime minister, ever since. Few realised it at the time, because few were listening, but that speech provided a blueprint for pretty much everything he has done, for how he would re-shape a country that was perilously close to total collapse.

Just 364 days previously, Russia had defaulted on its debt. Salaries for public sector workers and pensions were being paid months late, if at all. Basic infrastructure was collapsing. The country's most prized assets belonged to a handful of well-connected "oligarchs", who ran the country like a private fiefdom.

The once-mighty Russian army had lost a war in Chechnya, a place with fewer inhabitants than Russia had soldiers. Three former Warsaw Pact allies had joined Nato, bringing the Western alliance up to Russia's borders.

Meanwhile, the country was led by Yeltsin, an irascible drunkard in fragile health. The situation was desperate, but Putin had a plan.

"I cannot cover all the tasks facing the government in this speech. But I do know one thing for sure: not one of those tasks can be performed without imposing basic order and discipline in this country, without strengthening the vertical chain," he told the assembled parliamentarians.

Born in Leningrad in 1952, Putin came of age in the Soviet Union's golden years, the period after the USSR's astonishing triumph in World War Two. Sputnik, the hydrogen bomb, Laika the dog and Yuri Gagarin all bore witness to Soviet ingenuity. The crushing of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 bore witness to Soviet resolve. Soviet citizens were enjoying a time of peace and prosperity. Life was stable. People got paid. The world respected them. Everyone knew their place.

When Putin spoke to the Duma, his homeland was a different, and less respected place. He spoke the language of a man who yearned for the lost certainties, who longed for a time when Moscow was to be reckoned with. He did not say it explicitly, but he was clearly stung by Russia's failure to stop Nato driving the forces of its ally, Serbia, out of Kosovo just months previously.

"Russia has been a great power for centuries, and remains so. It has always had and still has legitimate zones of interest ... We should not drop our guard in this respect, neither should we allow our opinion to be ignored," he said.

His domestic policy was to restore stability, to end what he called the "revolutions", that had brought Russia low. His foreign policy was to regain Russia's place in world affairs.

Those two core aims have driven everything he has done since. If only people had been listening, none of his actions would have come as a surprise to them.

Since then, he has seized every opportunity history has offered him, from the attacks of 11 September 2001 to the Ukrainian Revolution of 2013, in his bid to secure his aims. He has been tactically astute and ruthlessly opportunistic. At home and abroad, he wants Russia to regain the prestige it held when he was growing up.

The obvious place to start his campaign was in Chechnya, symbol of Russia's collapse. The Chechens had defeated Yeltsin's attempt to crush their self-declared independence, but it proved a bitter victory. The war devastated Chechnya's people, economy and infrastructure. Chechnya became a sink of kidnapping, violence and crime, and - until Putin - no-one did anything about it.

Finally, for long-suffering patriotic Russians, here was a man not only able to pay their pensions, but prepared to get his hands dirty to defend their homeland. By the turn of the millennium, when Yeltsin stood down, and appointed Putin acting president in his place, the unknown prime minister's public approval rating was above 70% a level it has barely dipped below ever since.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:34

az: Dec 2, 2005

kalstrams posted:

Is there any tl;dr available?

"Hey Ukrainians, your new government are imposters and thugs, you should like totally demand a referendum to restore order :wink:

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:37

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

kalstrams posted:

Is there any tl;dr available?

"I'm not saying you should overthrow the government and put my side in charge, but it'd be pretty valid if you did"

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:39

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Speaking of NATO, Stoltenberg's been selected as the new chief.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26791044

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:40

woke wedding drone: Jun 1, 2003; by exmarx; Fun Shoe

I don't see how NATO can hold together as an organization without the unifying principle of Anders Fogh Rasmussen's rugged handsomeness.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:42

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Tatum Girlparts posted:

"I'm not saying you should overthrow the government and put my side in charge, but it'd be pretty valid if you did"

az posted:

"Hey Ukrainians, your new government are imposters and thugs, you should like totally demand a referendum to restore order "

Thanks. Ukrainian Spring is getting more and more interesting.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:43

az: Dec 2, 2005

An important observation is that Yanuk is now doing all of his work from inside Russia. You can bet your soul that he is being controlled or at least held in check by government people.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 16:48

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

mobby_6kl posted:

Speaking of NATO, Stoltenberg's been selected as the new chief.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26791044

Nice to see he picked up a new gig after losing the election. :norway:

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:02

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

Yanukovych turned out to be so blatantly corrupt even by Ukrainian standards that I'm not sure why he thinks he still has any sort of moral authority.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:02

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Phlegmish posted:

Yanukovych turned out to be so blatantly corrupt even by Ukrainian standards that I'm not sure why he thinks he still has any sort of moral authority.

His moral authority now comes with Putin's tanks.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:14

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

Phlegmish posted:

Yanukovych turned out to be so blatantly corrupt even by Ukrainian standards that I'm not sure why he thinks he still has any sort of moral authority.

Uh do you have Russian soldiers? No? So guess who has the moral authority now.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:19

Mightypeon: Oct 10, 2013; Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

Russia is actually searching for anyone from east Ukraine to replace Yanuk. (From Putins pov, Yanuk was friggin expensive, cowardly and inefficient. He also trolled Russia a couple of times with removing other People Russia could work with.)

Unfortunatly for Russia, such potential People end up being beaten up by Right Sector, or end up in a Kiev prison, or both.

My guess is that Putin would propably go with Mayor of Kharkiv Gennadi Kernes, who was somewhat effective (acutally rebuild the road System in his Oblast), not overly corrupt (actually, his corruption is transparent and not outrageously high, which is something People can actually deal with) and has a "maverick" Reputation (he supported the orange Revolution in 2004, as an "Easterner") that wouldnt make him seen as a total lapdog.

He is also Jewish, which would be great in making Right Sector do stupid stuff, and a Jew would propably be more palatable to Ukrainians than a Russian.

Contra Points: While not being unusually corrupt, he didnt get any anti corruption laurels, also, previously reported mob Connections.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:21

Mightypeon: Oct 10, 2013; Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

At least 4 People from the german left Party observed the Crimea Referendum, and got Major flack for it at home.
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/deutschland-ukraine-linke-die-krim-und-ein-ausgeladener-gysi/9627550.html

Russia did send similiar invitations to all parties, it was just that the Mainstream opted to ignore those.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:25

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Phlegmish posted:

Yanukovych turned out to be so blatantly corrupt even by Ukrainian standards that I'm not sure why he thinks he still has any sort of moral authority.

Ukrainian Truth has an article about the trove of documents found at former attorney general Viktor Pshonka's mansion. You remember those photos, they made Yanukovych's dump of a house seem tasteful in comparison.

Pravda.ua posted:

Journalists publish the personal archive of former Prosecutor General of Ukraine Viktor Pshonka.

"Ukrainian Truth" begins a series of publications from the personal archive of former Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka found in his mansion near Kiev. These documents were in the editorial office just over a month ago, in the early days after the escape of Viktor Yanukovych .

February 24, an unknown man called journalist edition with a proposal to get acquainted with the personal archives of the former Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka . We agreed, and after a while we came to the car, whose driver offered to follow him.

We went with the operator and streamer hromadske.tv. As it turned out, we were heading to the mansion of the former Attorney General in the village Gorenichi - the same mansion, photos of which were later posted online, revealing the world unprecedented luxury and very distinctive taste Mr. Pshonka.

The house was guarded by armed men who introduced themselves as fighters traditionally "right sector." In place already working crew "1 +1", which journalists acquainted with us and with the archives of the former Attorney General.

All documents from the home of former Attorney General for some reason were demolished in a small annex on the territory of the estate that once housed a sauna Viktor Pshonka. How to tell the guys in balklavah partially box with papers were collected at home, and partly here and stored - in the sauna.

Only two rooms were quite roomy six to ten boxes and bulk folders. Most of them were media review, which obviously Geprokuroru prepared daily and analytical reports on criminal cases.

Among other things, the various materials were "fine", but high-profile cases. For example, was completely decomposed scheme raiding mall Globe and investigation of VAB Bank.

Among the papers we found personal affairs Arseniy Yatsenyuk and his party "Front zmin" private affairs of some deputies (for example by Anatoly Gritsenko , deputies of "Svoboda"). Separately in the archive there is evidence of cooperation with the Prosecutor General's Office deputy Sergey Mishchenko, known as the author of the bill on the treatment of Yulia Tymoshenko and former Major State Guard Mykola Melnichenko , actively to testify in the case of ex-premier.

However, the lion's share of the remaining documents were materials of criminal cases and analytical notes, which can be roughly be divided into two themes - the events on Independence and the case of Yulia Tymoshenko .

Paper to investigate the affairs of the leader of "Fatherland" virtually littered around the room and permeates all folders. Separately, were piled the case itself - in the two bulk stacks, each of which lay on top of the sheets with inscriptions by hand "Timoshenko" and "Scherban."

The point leader "Fatherland" in two bulk stacks, each of which lay on top of the sheets with inscriptions by hand "Timoshenko" and "Scherban"

Photograph the entire archive us, unfortunately, failed. Guarding the house to familiarize people gave just a few hours. After that unknown people piled back into the archive boxes and carried out of the house, claiming that it will all be stored in the right sector.

As a result, we were able to spend with materials about six hours, trying to digitize what at first glance seemed most important. All we were able to photograph about 700 sheets, which managed to sort and process only recently. All these documents will soon be published in the pages of "Ukrainian Truth".

We decided to start with the events of the Maidan. In the first publication we will issue two analytical notes, which refer to the actions of the various authorities on recent events and a suggestion of blame in mass protests.

Feared that the Maidan will stand up to August 2014

Unfortunately, in our possession was only a fragment of the note - seven boxes scattered pages we were able to collect only 3,4,5 and 7 th.

Who exactly was this analytical notes, we could not figure out. According to one version, they could not be the author of one of the participants in the meetings "situational room" Bankova - Alexander Gurbich . But accurate evidence of this fact is not.

Apparently, the document was prepared in early December last year after the first acceleration Maidana and a criminal case on this fact. Conclusions are that almost all governments have shown weakness and disorganization in their response to events on the Maidan, and the sole support of Viktor Yanukovych was to become Attorney General's Office.

Ministry of education and science, according to the author of the note, actually blessed students assaults on public institutions.

Ministry of Health, instead of helping the authorities, telling students how to behave during glaciations. Although the text acknowledges that MOZ albeit belatedly, but still "played with the corpse of the situation", although later "gave back", saying that the epidemiological situation is normal.

Separately, the Foreign Ministry got that only a month later expressed his outrage meddling in Ukraine's foreign nationals.

However, the biggest criticism was MIA action, which could not defend his "Berkut", and personally Minister Vitaly Zakharchenko , who withdrew from the event and did not show initiative.

Most eloquent paragraph - criticism of the SBU. Analysts Prosecutor General were outraged that the security service was "outside the team player" and not only failed to convey its position to the public, but even to defend its own special car. Apparently talking about the incident with the captured machine SBU eavesdropper equipment far away from the European Square during the protests there.

On the sidelines of a paragraph criticizing the SBU has repeatedly stated the need to control the information space - "Control of the Internet", "Collection of information". Individually indicated the need to pay attention to social networks.

"Social networks! Maidan going through social networks," - said in notes in the margins.

Criticism NSDC deserves special attention. Judging by the text at the time of writing notes Andriy Klyuyev still led the Security Council. And if you believe the authors of the report, RNBO summed Viktor Yanukovych, not supporting the president.

Moreover, the statements of the National Security Council, and his deputy Volodymyr Sivkovych about their non-participation in the events of November 29-30 only increased doubts citizens and confirmed them in their opinion that the order to disperse they gave Maidana.

Next come the praises of the General Prosecutor's Office and the most directly Viktor Pshonka, "powerful performance which made the Verkhovna Rada to respect themselves and the government."

On the last page of the report are the risks from continuing Maidan.

However, we must pay tribute to the Prosecutor General's analysts. In the beginning of December, when the Maidan has not had time to turn around, Viktor Pshonka and his entourage rightly believed that the center of the city can turn into a solid tent city.

Now this may sound funny, but in the General Prosecutor's most feared Maidan will be a springboard for an anniversary celebration of Taras Shevchenko.

Another aspect that may be of interest is that the prosecutor's office believed that Viktor Yanukovych still intends to move to Europe. The note stated that the Maidan can stay until March, June or August 2014 - the date of the possible signing of an Association Agreement with the EU.

As a reaction to the events offered to cease mutual "mochilovo" Kliuev Liovochkin and vice versa, and to launch a massive information campaign in the media to discredit the Maidan. And even indicated direction - Prohibited existence Maidan antisantariya, vagabonds, thieves and outcasts Grifters.

And at the same time laid the foundation for an information campaign, which now leads the Russian media: about foreign funding of special training camps for militant nationalists.

"The search for the perpetrators of provocations on the Maidan"

The second note of about the same period, which was at the disposal of "Ukrainian Truth", more frank nature.

In the first paragraph of the document, the author indicates that the criminal case against Popov Sivkovych and Koryak (apparently it is all about the same events on 29-30 November 2013) is very beneficial impact on the image of the president. Viktor Yanukovych stopped mentioning in the press in connection with the acceleration of Maidan, and the whole film went on said officials.

True immediately rightly noted that the president's entourage is not ready to take on the film, which they themselves created. Who, exactly, the authors have in mind - the then head of the administration Sergei Liovochkin or chapter NSDC Andriy Klyuyev, is not clear. But noted that public opinion is not yet formed and proposed shift from Klyuyeva on Liovochkin Poroshenko. Why as the perpetrators were chosen, they also remain unknown.

The note describes in detail the information the displacement of these accents. In particular, the authors propose to draw public attention to the fact that neither the deputy head of the National Security Council Vladimir Sivkovych nor Kiev police chief Valery Koryak tackled the installation tree. This question is responsible for close to Sergei Levochkin head KCSA Alexander Popov .

It is proposed to draw a parallel and indicate that sister Julia Liovochkin Head of Administration, which oversees Kievspetstrans also has an impact on the utility Spetskomuntrans. (The fact that the head was appointed Kievspetstransa former spouse Mrs. Liovochkin - Arseny Novikov)

Further information space is proposed to saturate the information about corruption schemes which bind Liovochkin Sergey and Alexander Popov. Separately, the author of the note proposes to begin the public discourse about what motivated the group F. - L. - P. (obviously Firtash-Liovochkin, Poroshenko).

As options offered to recall that any use of force will be judged Europe and obviously pushed by Viktor Yanukovych in the arms of Russia, and on the background to destabilize the situation will become possible takeover.

To give this version of the popular legitimacy of the document by Sergei call Liovochkin offers a formal interrogation. This specifies that the result is not important interrogation, and the fact and its discussion in the media. Operational services offered to commission a collection full chronology of meetings, telephone conversations and the location Liovochkin between 11.29.2013 - 03.12.2013 in order to find the facts, indirectly confirming the veracity of the version of his involvement in Maidana overclocking.

Poroshenko supposed to bind to disperse through the testimony Maidana Dmitry Korchinskiy Bankovoj about events on December 1, 2013.

Today it is obvious that the Attorney General failed plans.

Victor Pshonka could not become a mainstay of Viktor Yanukovych, and his plans to discredit Maidana information led to the fact that public opinion is not only determined the outcome of all events of the past four months, but continues to shape the agenda until today.

In a subsequent publication "Ukrainian Truth" publishes materials of the criminal case on the events of 29-30 November 2013, as well as new documents, which set out a detailed plan of the General Prosecutor's Office to combat the Independence forces and resources of a number of government agencies.

In particular, they talked about the arrests of People's Deputies, the deportation of foreign diplomats and excited thousands of criminal cases against activists of the Maidan.

It's curious that Right Sector for some reason didn't want the press to have full access to the documents.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:28

Demiurge4: Aug 10, 2011

So the documents are gone then?

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:40

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Demiurge4 posted:

So the documents are gone then?

According to the report, Right Sector took them and are storing them. Why they wouldn't want the press to have full access to them seems interesting to me. Exposing what Yanukovych did while president is important right now for establishing why it was important he be removed from office.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 17:47

Dusty Baker 2: Jul 8, 2011; Keyboard Inghimasi

Mightypeon posted:

At least 4 People from the german left Party observed the Crimea Referendum, and got Major flack for it at home.
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/deutschland-ukraine-linke-die-krim-und-ein-ausgeladener-gysi/9627550.html

Russia did send similiar invitations to all parties, it was just that the Mainstream opted to ignore those.

They were invitation bullets!

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20140308/world/warning-shots-fired-to-turn-osce-monitors-back-from-crimea.509783

# ? Mar 28, 2014 18:18

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# ? May 18, 2024 22:23

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Dolash posted:

This is like a laundry list of all the worst digressions of the last thread.

If I were that fired Minister I would consider getting the hell out of the country, or at least out of any city with a Right Sector presence. There's a real chance of a revenge killing. Still, if he really did order the assassination of a Right Sector leader he probably does deserve to be kicked out, that's unlikely to be legal and also raised tensions for no benefit.

The toughest angle of any further Russian interventions in Ukraine is the more of Ukraine they take, the more hostile the territory they're taking becomes and the more hostile the rump state of Ukraine becomes afterward. Taking Eastern Ukraine would involve actual fighting and pierce the "liberation" illusion for a fair number of Russians, and all it'd achieve is remove a large chunk of pro-Russian Ukrainians from the rest of Ukraine and swing the rest of the country's politics further toward aligning with Europe.

It might just be easier to sit there, looking ready to invade at any moment, but never do it. Keep Ukraine unstable and panicked. It's not like Ukraine can afford drawn-out tensions, and it keeps factions bickering rather than rallying against an invasion.

. Read what I was responding to, and note the grammar in my response.

# ? Mar 28, 2014 18:27

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Ukraine's EU Victory Dance vs Dugin's Russia Uber Alles

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