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They were better than the Wild, just not in that series. They don't match up well against them or the Blues. A team like the Blackhawks, they match up perfectly against, and run a train on them every time, whereas the Wild aren't going to win this series. The Avs aren't as good as they are going to be yet, so long as they can hold on to all these young talented players, and they still played pretty drat well all season. Saying they are going to win the Cup within three years is way more dependent on the salary cap and whether they can acquire some good defensemen than anything, but it's not super out of line.
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May 4, 2014 20:20
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Are we assuming Varlamov is going to be Vezina quality again this year? Because without that they don't make playoffs.
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May 4, 2014 20:21
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Gio posted:not really. the Avs were not that good of a team to begin with. 
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May 4, 2014 20:21
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Austrian mook posted:Are we assuming Varlamov is going to be Vezina quality again this year? Because without that they don't make playoffs. they were the 4th highest scoring team in the league
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May 4, 2014 20:26
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Austrian mook posted:Are we assuming Varlamov is going to be Vezina quality again this year? Because without that they don't make playoffs. No. I'm assuming that their D is going to be NHL caliber at some point. Their forward core is pretty ridiculous even if they don't sign Stastny, and I love Roy's aggressive coaching style / philosophy. He coaches like he's in junior still, but with an NHL pedigree that forces players to pay attention to him.
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May 4, 2014 20:35
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Nothing about the Avalanche's season was sustainable except for probably the bad possession numbers, because they're not that great. If you think Varlamov is going to continue to be Vezina caliber after one good season and if you think the offense is going to continue shooting above league average, then I dunno what to tell you.
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May 4, 2014 20:47
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It's going to be funny seeing Roy win the Jack Adams bc of Varlamov.
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May 4, 2014 20:50
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Jordan7hm posted:No. I'm assuming that their D is going to be NHL caliber at some point. Their forward core is pretty ridiculous even if they don't sign Stastny, and I love Roy's aggressive coaching style / philosophy. He coaches like he's in junior still, but with an NHL pedigree that forces players to pay attention to him. Coaches will adapt to Roy, as was clearly seen in their playoff series against the Wild. Their top 6 is pretty spectacular, but their bottom 6 is dreadful. Outside of Barrie their D is one of the worst in the league. They have 1 goalie in Varlamov who is most certainly going to regress back to his average, while their back up someone that couldnt make it in loving Calgary. They have much more to address than just D if they are going to win the Cup. That said, I still think they will consistently make the playoffs. They are on par with Minnesota and a notch above the bottom of the Central and still have room to grow.
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May 4, 2014 21:01
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Counterpoint: Landeskog, Duchene, O'Reilly, MacKinnon. They're going to have a great front 6 for years, and that's the biggest part of the battle. They just need to get some defense and hold on to guys like Stastny, McGinn and Parenteau. Also Varlamov is a really good goalie and has always had the potential to be great, so I'm not sure why you guys are implying that he's going to drop to like 15th best or something. He may not be top 2 next season, but he'll certainly be an asset. Edit: After Reto Barra, they have two really solid up and comers in the minors waiting in the wings, so depth at goalie isn't an issue.
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May 4, 2014 21:02
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Volkerball posted:they were the 4th highest scoring team in the league and 24th in shots against Volkerball posted:Counterpoint: Landeskog, Duchene, O'Reilly, MacKinnon. They're going to have a great front 6 for years, and that's the biggest part of the battle. They just need to get some defense and hold on to guys like Stastny, McGinn and Parenteau. Also Varlamov is a really good goalie and has always had the potential to be great, so I'm not sure why you guys are implying that he's going to drop to like 15th best or something. He may not be top 2 next season, but he'll certainly be an asset. Outside of like, pavelec, can you name a goalie who doesn't have the potential to be great? Varlamov's .927 is above his career average by a decent bit, and last year he was a .903. hifi fucked around with this message at 21:22 on May 4, 2014 |
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May 4, 2014 21:17
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Whenever someone says a team just "needs to get some defense" I think it's funny because it's really loving hard to find good defensemen
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May 4, 2014 21:19
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Volkerball posted:Counterpoint: Landeskog, Duchene, O'Reilly, MacKinnon. They're going to have a great front 6 for years, and that's the biggest part of the battle. They just need to get some defense and hold on to guys like Stastny, McGinn and Parenteau. Also Varlamov is a really good goalie and has always had the potential to be great, so I'm not sure why you guys are implying that he's going to drop to like 15th best or something. He may not be top 2 next season, but he'll certainly be an asset. ROR probably isn't long for Colorado if he has any sour memories of last off-season.
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May 4, 2014 22:02
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reach42 posted:ROR probably isn't long for Colorado if he has any sour memories of last off-season.
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May 4, 2014 22:20
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deafmute posted:Since his qualifying offer is $6.5million dollars the Avs are in an incredibly interesting position. Since management didn't want to pay him last go-round, what do you think the market is for him? I think it's incredibly peculiar that the cap is as conservative as it is next season considering the "historic" Rogers Sportsnet Deal that everyone claimed would boost the cap.
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May 4, 2014 22:33
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:So all that counts against the cap next year for Jagr is $3.5m, and with Brodeur almost certainly not coming back to NJ, and with Volchenkov almost certain to be bought out, that really is a ton of cap to work with. If Lou plays his cards right, the Devils can be an instant contender again. We've got his 2m from this season though carrying over so he's basically a 5.5m player. Not that it matters the Devils will have an assload of cap space.
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May 4, 2014 22:42
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deafmute posted:Since his qualifying offer is $6.5million dollars the Avs are in an incredibly interesting position. lmao I forgot all about that. Looks like they have a ton of cap space even giving the important UFA and RFAs upper limits of what they could get since their bottom 6 and most of their D are trash.
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May 4, 2014 22:46
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reach42 posted:Since management didn't want to pay him last go-round, what do you think the market is for him? I think it's incredibly peculiar that the cap is as conservative as it is next season considering the "historic" Rogers Sportsnet Deal that everyone claimed would boost the cap. 
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May 4, 2014 23:11
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Steven Harper is killing the NHL 
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May 4, 2014 23:16
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Stickarts posted:I mean I believe that, like in literally all other facets of life, there are players who perform better in high pressure situations than others. It's the human factor that makes sports compelling. Otherwise we may as well just watch a random number generator weighted according to team skill level produce results. It's a huge leap to go from that to "team is nothing but a bunch of chokers who will literally never win", though. there's been a lot of studies about this w/r/t baseball that have concluded that there is no such thing as clutch and it's mostly media narrative + small sample sizes. Jordan7hm posted:Its a long term thing of course, but colorado will probably improve their possession numbers as their young players mature and they presumably address their defensive issues. if they don't though, they won't win the cup. thornton and marleau were not why san jose lost in the first round and mclellan wasn't either. crosby, malkin and bylsma won a cup and have been really underwhelming in the playoffs since including losing to very inferior teams. if that game 7 had gone differently than we might be sitting here talking about how the penguins need to dump one of crosby or malkin if they are ever going to win. Volkerball posted:Also Varlamov is a really good goalie and has always had the potential to be great, so I'm not sure why you guys are implying that he's going to drop to like 15th best or something. He may not be top 2 next season, but he'll certainly be an asset. there is very little about varlamov's career prior to this year to suggest that he is better than say marc-andre fleury or steve mason. more likely this was an extreme outlier season and he'll fall back toward his career numbers, which are not good enough to carry a team. his career save percentage is pretty much the same as his playoff save percentage was this year Zamboni Jesus fucked around with this message at 23:28 on May 4, 2014 |
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May 4, 2014 23:24
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Colorado will win the cup within 3 years, probably 2. San Jose will not, unless one of Thornton, Marleau or the coach are moved. They'll probably win 150+ games though. 300$ to charity if I'm wrong.
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T-Bone posted:We've got his 2m from this season though carrying over so he's basically a 5.5m player. Not that it matters the Devils will have an assload of cap space. That's right, the bonuses carryover. True. And yeah, still tons of cap
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May 4, 2014 23:33
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tofes posted:Whenever someone says a team just "needs to get some defense" I think it's funny because it's really loving hard to find good defensemen Niskanen, Markov, Zidlicky, Boyle, Gilbert, Meszaros, Morris, Salo, Hainsey, Nikitin, Ranger, Quincey, Orpik, Weaver, Hannan, Mitchell, Kostka, Corvo, Sarich, Greene, Bouillon, Colaiacovo, Komisarek, Summers, Murray, Gill, Whitney, Mottau, Alberts 
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May 4, 2014 23:34
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Zamboni Jesus posted:there is very little about varlamov's career prior to this year to suggest that he is better than say marc-andre fleury or steve mason. more likely this was an extreme outlier season and he'll fall back toward his career numbers, which are not good enough to carry a team. Keep in mind that his stats are inflated by his unreal start to the season when the Avs were the last team to lose a game. I'd say his fall back already happened, and his play through the back 2/3 of the season are what we can expect from him moving forward. The Avs came back from 3rd place and ended up winning the division and getting the 2 seed with that level of play, so I like I said, I don't see him being a liability. He can play terrible some nights, but he also can win some games on his own, and keep the Avs in close games late while any of their top scorers seal it up. I'd also say you can expect an inflated level of play from goalies under Roy and Allaire, because Jiggy played out of his mind for where he's at at this point in his career as well. Also, the Avs got 12 shots in game 3, and lost every single game in Minnesota because they couldn't generate any offense, so I wouldn't point to Varly as a big reason we lost that series. Just a young team in its first appearance since 2009 that couldn't do playoff hockey consistently, but they still went to overtime in game 7 against a good team. I agree with your other points about possession and defense though.
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May 5, 2014 00:06
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deafmute posted:The class of defensemen that are available this year looks pretty fantastic! Zid is almost definitely returning to NJ, he loves the system and the Devils have tons of cap and he had almost 50 points last year. No way Lou lets him walk. This means Niskanen is gonna make bank, Markov/Boyle will get shorter terms but still a nice amount, and after those three it's loving brutal.
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May 5, 2014 00:09
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Volkerball posted:Keep in mind that his stats are inflated by his unreal start to the season when the Avs were the last team to lose a game. I'd say his fall back already happened, and his play through the back 2/3 of the season are what we can expect from him moving forward. The Avs came back from 3rd place and ended up winning the division and getting the 2 seed with that level of play, so I like I said, I don't see him being a liability. He can play terrible some nights, but he also can win some games on his own, and keep the Avs in close games late while any of their top scorers seal it up. I'd also say you can expect an inflated level of play from goalies under Roy and Allaire, because Jiggy played out of his mind for where he's at at this point in his career as well. Also, the Avs got 12 shots in game 3, and lost every single game in Minnesota because they couldn't generate any offense, so I wouldn't point to Varly as a big reason we lost that series. Just a young team in its first appearance since 2009 that couldn't do playoff hockey consistently, but they still went to overtime in game 7 against a good team. I agree with your other points about possession and defense though. to be clear, i think the team can win with varlamov even if he's only an average goalie. see osgood. see fleury. see niemi. see ward. see crawford.
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May 5, 2014 00:13
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Osgood was awesome and I will not hear otherwise.
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May 5, 2014 00:15
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Zamboni Jesus posted:there's been a lot of studies about this w/r/t baseball that have concluded that there is no such thing as clutch and it's mostly media narrative + small sample sizes. They did a study on Michael Jordan and found the same thing. He made the same percentage of "clutch" shots as anybody else, he just had a shitload more opportunities.
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May 5, 2014 00:27
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Volkerball posted:Keep in mind that his stats are inflated by his unreal start to the season when the Avs were the last team to lose a game. I'd say his fall back already happened, and his play through the back 2/3 of the season are what we can expect from him moving forward. The Avs came back from 3rd place and ended up winning the division and getting the 2 seed with that level of play, so I like I said, I don't see him being a liability. He can play terrible some nights, but he also can win some games on his own, and keep the Avs in close games late while any of their top scorers seal it up. I'd also say you can expect an inflated level of play from goalies under Roy and Allaire, because Jiggy played out of his mind for where he's at at this point in his career as well. Also, the Avs got 12 shots in game 3, and lost every single game in Minnesota because they couldn't generate any offense, so I wouldn't point to Varly as a big reason we lost that series. Just a young team in its first appearance since 2009 that couldn't do playoff hockey consistently, but they still went to overtime in game 7 against a good team. I agree with your other points about possession and defense though. Minnesota isn't a good team. Colorado will be good but this season they performed way above how they should have. Varlamov is super athletic and a good goalie but he's not a world beater that you can't expect him to come close to repeating what he did this year. Also... what? Literally nobody is pointing to Varlamov as "a big reason [the Avs] lost this series." That's a purely 1-2 media personality driven story. If Varlamov didn't have a career year the Avs don't even make it to the playoffs, much less 7 games. The Avs ascension had as much to do with their own team luck re: shooting percentage and save percentage as it did the Blackhawks falling off for whatever reason and the Blues collapsing. To expect them to fall back to earth is hardly far fetched given how much regression you can expect and holes they have.
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May 5, 2014 00:34
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Zid is almost definitely returning to NJ, he loves the system and the Devils have tons of cap and he had almost 50 points last year. No way Lou lets him walk. The sad thing is this is one of the better selections of UFA defensemen over the past few years
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May 5, 2014 00:45
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Tom Gilbert's cool I guess, I'd take him in San Jose
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May 5, 2014 00:53
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Deer_fire posted:Minnesota isn't a good team. why?
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May 5, 2014 01:15
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They had a funny season. The first month or two they were one of the top shot differential teams in the league, and then they fell apart and were one of the worst over the remainder of the season. If their goaltending wasn't as unexpectedly good as it turned out during the regular season (for the record they had the 3rd best team 5 on 5 save percentage behind Boston and Los Angeles) they would have had a tough time. It was pretty funny to watch a below average possession team like Minnesota - they finished 21st in the league in close game fenwick % - completely dominate the Avalanche in their postseason series at even strength. Should tell you a lot about how good a team Colorado actually was.
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May 5, 2014 01:22
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Zamboni Jesus posted:colorado will probably improve their possession numbers as their young players mature and they presumably address their defensive issues. if they don't though, they won't win the cup. This is absolutely true. I'm obviously of the belief that they will. Pittsburgh, for example, had woeful possession stats the year they lost to Detroit, but the following year had pushed themselves to being a over 50% fenwick close team. fancy stats posted:Yeah, its not as though the cup winners in recent history were all uniformly top possession tea- In the last several years Boston wasn't and Pittsburgh wasn't (they were good but not dominating by any stretch). Chicago x2, LA, Detroit were. But that's kind of what my point was - possession is good, and over the course of a regular season the little bit of extra skill (or luck or whatever) will even out. Over the course of a few 7 game series though, you need something on top of the possession numbers. For whatever reason SJS have never had that something extra, and I don't see any reason to believe they suddenly will find it. e: Also you could replace "good possession team" with "good regular season team" in like any argument about success and you'd be arguing the same thing. Generally teams that are good in the regular season are also good in the playoffs. But the SJS have not been good in the playoffs since Todd started coaching them. Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 01:42 on May 5, 2014 |
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May 5, 2014 01:39
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But Colorado will, because this tea leaf that I put in some water pointed in the direction of Denver.
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May 5, 2014 01:41
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That's no tea leaf, friend.
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May 5, 2014 01:42
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Jordan7hm posted:For whatever reason SJS have never had that something extra, and I don't see any reason to believe they suddenly will find it. i think the response to that is that there is no reason to believe that they won't find "it" and trading two of their best players seem unlikely to help them to find "it"
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May 5, 2014 01:42
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Zamboni Jesus posted:i think the response to that is that there is no reason to believe that they won't find "it" and trading two of their best players seem unlikely to help them to find "it" Only team to win a cup after a history of playoff performance like San Jose was Calgary in '89. The question then is when do you blow it up? You give them another year, another two years, another three years... or do you just say the goal is to make it to the dance every year but winning in the playoffs doesn't really matter? e: Or hell, maybe they win next year and I feel quite the fool. So who's ready to put their money on San Jose, even if they go into the playoffs next year with a president's trophy? e2: McLellan has a 30-32 playoff record as a coach, and 271-112-46 in the regular season. Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 01:51 on May 5, 2014 |
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May 5, 2014 01:44
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Jordan7hm posted:Only team to win a cup after a history of playoff performance like San Jose was Calgary in '89. i don't really think the historical argument has any validity here in terms of predicting how san jose will do in the future, but how many teams have been able to hold an elite core without having won for the length of time that san jose has, or been a top team without winning for the length of time that san jose has? maybe other teams in somewhat the same situation blew it up and then never won. san jose can keep the team together for a few more years and maybe never win but be a contender at least or they can blow it up and basically guarantee they never will.
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May 5, 2014 01:48
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In a place that's typically as intelligent about hockey as SAS, it's weird enough to see a lone dumb uninformed opinion like "Colorado will be really good" or "San Jose isn't gonna win a cup" but seeing them both at the same time is really something.
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May 5, 2014 01:50
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Zamboni Jesus posted:i don't really think the historical argument has any validity here in terms of predicting how san jose will do in the future, but how many teams have been able to hold an elite core without having won for the length of time that san jose has, or been a top team without winning for the length of time that san jose has? maybe other teams in somewhat the same situation blew it up and then never won. In the last 40 years there have been 26 total streaks of 5+ playoff years without a cup. I'm including San Jose in that. Only 2 teams (Detroit in 1997 and Calgary in 1989) have won after a streak like that. Obviously historical arguments aren't very solid because there are different circumstances for different teams, but there are a lot of teams / cores that have been as good as San Jose and never won anything. If you aren't going to win, what's the point of keeping the core together? Being a contender who never actually wins a cup is no better than being any other team who never wins a cup.
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May 5, 2014 01:54
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VJeff posted:In a place that's typically as intelligent about hockey as SAS, it's weird enough to see a lone dumb uninformed opinion like "Colorado will be really good" or "San Jose isn't gonna win a cup" but seeing them both at the same time is really something. A lot of people were telling me in their early season streak that Colorado wouldn't even make the playoffs because regress to the mean you don't even know. I think ya'll get a bit up your own asses sometimes.
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May 5, 2014 01:55
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