|
Pycckuu posted:Do you guys think the US will get involved in Iraq again in any serious sense? I can't see it having any domestic support, but on the other hand, you break it you buy it. Politically impossible: ordinary US citizens are just as sick of idiot foreign adventures as people are in the UK. Besides, if a full-scale, 9 year military occupation couldn't build a functioning Iraqi state, why would a limited return make any difference now?
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 07:40
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 07:13 |
|
|
There's some rumblings going around that one of the biggest reason ISIS have been making these crazy gains is because of Maliki the former Baathist officers and former military are now back in active insurgency only this time in the embrace of ISIS rather than on their own, is there any truth to this, Brown Moses?
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 08:14
|
|
|
Pycckuu posted:It's funny that pulling troops out of Iraq was Obama's triumph right up until things went tits up, then it suddenly became Bush's fault because Obama just followed the original schedule. That's American politics for you, lol. It will be interesting how this will affect the US status in Afghanistan. Karzai repeatedly wanted the US forces out as quickly as possible, and I'm wondering if the US will use the Iraq situation as an example of what might happen without America's protection. What do you mean by serious sense? There won't be boots on the ground, but drone strikes and air strikes are possible. People here only really care about U.S. casualties and with those there will be none.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 08:19
|
|
|
Umiapik posted:Politically impossible: ordinary US citizens are just as sick of idiot foreign adventures as people are in the UK. Besides, if a full-scale, 9 year military occupation couldn't build a functioning Iraqi state, why would a limited return make any difference now? I think at this point if ISIS invaded Turkey with combined arms and beheaded Erdogan on live TV, US support for intervention would top out at about 14%.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 08:23
|
|
|
Umiapik posted:Politically impossible: ordinary US citizens are just as sick of idiot foreign adventures as people are in the UK. Besides, if a full-scale, 9 year military occupation couldn't build a functioning Iraqi state, why would a limited return make any difference now? I wouldn't be so sure. Losing iraq to radical islamists might just be politically untenable for the democrats if republicans push hard enough. And its not like isis has any sort of international backing that the united states is going to care about. Then again there might be a sort of mutual agreement to blame the Iraqis for the whole debacle and for both sides to collectively wash their hands of the whole affair like with Vietnam, since both parties have a lot of baggage involved with regards to Iraq. The cynic in me would say that lack of public support for a war effort is pretty meaningless. Public opinion is going to be shaped by what talking heads talk or don't talk about, more than anything else.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 08:35
|
|
|
SedanChair posted:I think at this point if ISIS invaded Turkey with combined arms and beheaded Erdogan on live TV, US support for intervention would top out at about 14%. Maybe saying that ISIS control of Iraqi oil fields will cause an increase in gas prices will motivate people to support a third Iraq War.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 09:04
|
|
|
Do ISIS have any real chance of mounting an assault on Baghdad?
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 09:19
|
|
|
TheIllestVillain posted:Do ISIS have any real chance of mounting an assault on Baghdad? No. they dont have the numbers or strength and they dont have any sympathy from more than half of the population of Iraq at all. They're murderously hateful of the other sects in Iraq, and Baghdad has plenty of people who's lives are directly and unquestionably threatened by them gaining power in any way.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 09:23
|
|
|
Baghdad has about 7.5 million inhabitants, the vast majority Shia, who've been suicide bombed by Al-Qaeda in Iraq / ISIS for about decade. So no, ISIS isn't going to subjugate them. If they would it would probably result in the largest ethnic cleansing campaign in the Middle East since the Armenian Genocide.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 11:13
|
|
|
Kurdish fighters are claiming to have moved into Kirkuk in the wake of the army fleeing ISIS. Do you suppose they'll want to leave if they manage to hold the city? Saddam forced tons of Kurds out during his rule and them just rolling an army into the city to hold it against ISIS, while a good thing, is certainly cause for concern. e: addendum: pretty much everything that's happened in the last week has been a cause for concern illrepute fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Jun 12, 2014 |
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 11:16
|
|
|
Tiler Kiwi posted:Then again there might be a sort of mutual agreement to blame the Iraqis for the whole debacle and for both sides to collectively wash their hands of the whole affair like with Vietnam, since both parties have a lot of baggage involved with regards to Iraq. You have accurately summed up what the US/ UK response to this crisis will be.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 11:20
|
|
|
Tiler Kiwi posted:I wouldn't be so sure. Losing iraq to radical islamists might just be politically untenable for the democrats if republicans push hard enough. And its not like isis has any sort of international backing that the united states is going to care about. Then again there might be a sort of mutual agreement to blame the Iraqis for the whole debacle and for both sides to collectively wash their hands of the whole affair like with Vietnam, since both parties have a lot of baggage involved with regards to Iraq. Invading and toppling dictators left and right is also a statement. Iraq is ripping itself to peices and make no mistake about the reasons here, going back won't fix anything and it won't save face.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 11:37
|
|
|
Regardless of how bad the situation gets, the question regarding the United States will be if there will or will not be airstrikes. Putting boots back on the ground would be political suicide, there's zero chance.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 11:55
|
|
|
welp, the Iraqi parliament just failed to vote in favour of a state of emergency, because not enough MPs actually showed up. You know you're in trouble when Alqaeda takes your third largest city and your sectarian rubber stamp parliament refuses to show up in order to declare a state of emergency over it.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 12:07
|
|
|
SedanChair posted:I think at this point if ISIS invaded Turkey with combined arms and beheaded Erdogan on live TV, US support for intervention would top out at about 14%. Luckily at that point US support would be irrelevant, thanks to German tanks rolling through Turkey crushing ISIS under them. (This isn't hyperbole, for some strange reason even though we Germans are really, really pacifistic, a recent poll showed something like 60% support for defending our NATO-partners.)
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 12:57
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:There's some rumblings going around that one of the biggest reason ISIS have been making these crazy gains is because of Maliki the former Baathist officers and former military are now back in active insurgency only this time in the embrace of ISIS rather than on their own, is there any truth to this, Brown Moses? I've seen lots of reports like this also. The Nashqbandi Order and Islamic Army popping up, men singing Baathist songs in Tikrit. ISIS has some allies in their former rivals it seems. Wonder how they'll get along.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 13:04
|
|
|
Libluini posted:for some strange reason even though we Germans are really, really pacifistic Suuure you are.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 13:09
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:There's some rumblings going around that one of the biggest reason ISIS have been making these crazy gains is because of Maliki the former Baathist officers and former military are now back in active insurgency only this time in the embrace of ISIS rather than on their own, is there any truth to this, Brown Moses? It can't be anything else but this. ISIS has clearly been making alliances and brokering agreements left, right and centre and they're now putting their strategy into action, with the results that we've all seen. If nothing else, it shows just how well-organised and disciplined they are: this isn't some rabble that's got it's hands on a bunch of weapons. Their organisation, leadership and morale are particularly striking* when contrasted with the pathetic performance of the official Iraqi army so far. *they're still absolutely horrible people, though
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 13:30
|
|
|
Libluini posted:Luckily at that point US support would be irrelevant, thanks to German tanks rolling through Turkey crushing ISIS under them. (This isn't hyperbole, for some strange reason even though we Germans are really, really pacifistic, a recent poll showed something like 60% support for defending our NATO-partners.) Makes sense, since the Germans decided to stop having children and adopt Turkish Gastarbeiter instead, that they'd be overwhelmingly in favor of defending Turkey from enemies.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:04
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:Maybe saying that ISIS control of Iraqi oil fields will cause an increase in gas prices will motivate people to support a third Iraq War. It would be cheaper to just subsidize hybrid/electric cars.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:07
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:Makes sense, since the Germans decided to stop having children and adopt Turkish Gastarbeiter instead, that they'd be overwhelmingly in favor of defending Turkey from enemies. I think you forgot which tab you had /pol/ open in.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:15
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:Makes sense, since the Germans decided to stop having children and adopt Turkish Gastarbeiter instead, that they'd be overwhelmingly in favor of defending Turkey from enemies. Nah, not really. We also called Portugese Gastarbeiter to us back in the day and an astonishing amount of Vietnamese refugees ended up staying in Germany. Their descendants would care for upholding our treaties and commitments like all good Germans, but they would skew poll results back from being overwhelmingly in favor of Turkey. Also around 60% support for our allies is actually really bad, it's another sign of our pacifism -barely half of us would support a war even when we would just defend our partners.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:24
|
|
|
mother of gently caress, ISIS has captured around 4500 Iraqi Soldiers who abandoned their military base and are parading them through the streets of Tikrit:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ms6LCHmQ2jU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzRikfT_ips There's also rumors flying about that they've installed a former Saddam officer as governer of Mosul and are now laying down strict wahhabi law ( a surefire way to destroy any support they had.) Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 14:36 on Jun 12, 2014 |
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:33
|
|
|
What the hell? At what point does public support for these guys stop mattering so much? I mean if they're the only guys who can organize and fight like this, maybe they can rule through terror alone.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:38
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:What do you mean by serious sense? CNN posted:It came as little surprise when Iraq indicates a willingness Wednesday for the United States' military to conduct airstrikes against the radical Islamic militants. https://www.cnn.com/2014/06/12/world/meast/Iraq-violence/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:39
|
|
|
Ahahahha, the Kurds swooped in and took Kirkuk, which did not appear to be in any real danger at the moment. They do appear to be competently lead, though. And it appears that Toyotas once again rule the Arabian desert rather than humvees. Edit: Does anyone have any perspective on why ISIS took the Turkish consulate? I could speculate that it has something to do with previous events in Syria, but it just doesn't seem like a smart long term move.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:43
|
|
|
Libluini posted:Also around 60% support for our allies is actually really bad, it's another sign of our pacifism -barely half of us would support a war even when we would just defend our partners. Seriously this time, I don't see Germany or most other EU countries actually willing to intervene unless Turkey forces their hand by invoking NATO article 5. Especially since it'd be perceived as having to go clean up the USA's mess. There might be some airstrike campaign, but even that isn't certain. France for example is already busy in Africa (Mali, Central Africa) and the fresh new conflict between Congo and Rwanda isn't going to help.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 14:49
|
|
|
With the level of specifically Turkish hatred in Germany, maybe they support a NATO-mandated action if only so it delivers the opportunity to cause "collateral damage" to innocent Turks. Then again, I'm aware this may be Amero-centric and possibly projecting the hosed-up-ness of my own country on the people of Germany.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:00
|
|
|
The Naqashbandi Army and ISIS make for strange bedfellows. ISIS has been openly destroying sufi tombs. Guess hatred of Maliki and the Shia is enough to overcome that.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:05
|
|
|
According to the Guardian's live blog President Rouhani hinted at a possible Iranian intervention to "support Iraq in fighting terrorism". What irony.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:10
|
|
|
the boston bomber posted:According to the Guardian's live blog President Rouhani hinted at a possible Iranian intervention to "support Iraq in fighting terrorism". What irony. Worked for Russia with Crimea...
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:19
|
|
|
FAUXTON posted:With the level of specifically Turkish hatred in Germany, maybe they support a NATO-mandated action if only so it delivers the opportunity to cause "collateral damage" to innocent Turks. What? Are you referencing the series of assasinations on turkish people by neo-nazis? Because if so don't confuse this with the general attitude in Germany towards Turkey. Nobody is interested in '"collateral damage" to innocent Turks.'
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:23
|
|
|
FAUXTON posted:With the level of specifically Turkish hatred in Germany, maybe they support a NATO-mandated action if only so it delivers the opportunity to cause "collateral damage" to innocent Turks. At least for Southern Europe, hating Turks has been a pastime for centuries (I believe it was Italy where the phrase for "don't be such a dumbass/criminal" is "Don't be such a Turk").
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:23
|
|
|
Alex DeLarge posted:Worked for Russia with Crimea... Crucially, unlike Russia, Iran doesn't have any designs on Iraqi territory, and since the two governments are friendly this is probably more about propping up a corrupt government than subverting it..?
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:23
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:mother of gently caress, ISIS has captured around 4500 Iraqi Soldiers who abandoned their military base and are parading them through the streets of Tikrit:- Holy poo poo. What are the odds of these guys just being thrown into a prison versus cold blooded executions at the end of their march?
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:25
|
|
|
VERTiG0 posted:Holy poo poo. What are the odds of these guys just being thrown into a prison versus cold blooded executions at the end of their march? Probably a number are going to end up fighting alongside ISIS.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:27
|
|
|
illrepute posted:Crucially, unlike Russia, Iran doesn't have any designs on Iraqi territory, and since the two governments are friendly this is probably more about propping up a corrupt government than subverting it..? Yeah that is the irony I was thinking of. Iran and the US both actually want to prop up the same government in Iraq, who would have thought that 30 years ago when Saddam was brutally invading Iran with American and Soviet weapons.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:31
|
|
|
illrepute posted:Probably a number are going to end up fighting alongside ISIS. USSR-style penal battalions.
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 15:55
|
|
|
Lots of Baathists are claiming this offensive was long in the making, amid reports that commanders in Tikrit ordered the army to stand down. This whole event is more complex than a surprise ISIS win, although that's a bit part of it too. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq.html?_r=1
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 16:05
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 07:13 |
|
|
MothraAttack posted:Lots of Baathists are claiming this offensive was long in the making, amid reports that commanders in Tikrit ordered the army to stand down. This whole event is more complex than a surprise ISIS win, although that's a bit part of it too. Wait a second, are you saying my black and white interpretation no longer fits? Now how am I supposed to feel??
|
|
#
?
Jun 12, 2014 16:12
|
|
