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So I definitely have that September disease of being all excited about new sports seasons and placing too many bets, oh well: final picks: TNF Steelers @ Ravens Over 44 NCAAF East Carolina +10 @ VT (tailing a friend who thinks this is let-down spot for VT after a big win) NFL Sunday/Monday Dolphins PK @ Bills (Pron Pick) Patriots -3 @ Vikings (Pron Pick) Eagles @ Colts Over 53 (Pron Pick) Bears +7 @ 49ers NFL Teasers Seahawks +1 @ Chargers and Saints PK @ Browns Broncos -6.5 vs. Chiefs and Bears +13.5 @ 49ers Just realized out of all the bets above, only on 1 home team
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# ? Sep 9, 2014 20:59 |
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 16:16 |
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Over 53.5 Philly/Indy Miami -1.5 Arizona -1.5 Tennessee -3.5 New England -3 (put 3U on this) Really trying to stop myself from just betting the farm on the Pats -3 tho
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 01:48 |
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7-5 overall. +1.6 units Red Sox +1 Serbia +2 (FIBA)
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 14:44 |
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I've never gambled before, but just saw ASU is only 15.5 point favorites over Colorado this week. That seems like free money if you bet ASU to cover. The Devils haven't looked great yet against 2 inferior opponents but blew them out...I'm strongly considering laying some money on this one. HooverDam fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Sep 10, 2014 |
# ? Sep 10, 2014 16:52 |
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As a UCLA fan, I can tell you the 20pt spreads they're putting up for us on lovely teams seem to be good value (in taking the other team). Alsosupercrooky posted:Vegas wasn't built on giving away free money. There is plenty of money on the other side of that bet, and it doesn't look like its coming from recreational bettor types. Enough to move the line in the opposite direction. This guy knew what he was talking about. Decided to start tracking my single bets for fun this year. What analysis do you guys use to help you bet? I really liked the FO odds, where they analyzed the game and came up with their spreads. I rode their call that the Carolina line was wrong big last week. The Supercontest bets also seem to be helpful. Also the FBG article each week: quote:BEST BETS Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Sep 10, 2014 |
# ? Sep 10, 2014 20:25 |
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Its Miller Time posted:What analysis do you guys use to help you bet? I have a few rules of thumb to eliminate some bets right off the bat: 1. No big NFL favorites (-10 or more) 2. Stay away from NFL unders unless there is a compelling edge. I think books are being slow to adjust to Goodell's rule changes and the resulting increase in offense. And then I just eyeball bets and sit there and think for like 30 seconds. I am trying to teach myself R and apply statistical methods more but its tough to do that with football compared with, say, baseball
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 20:36 |
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Pron on VHS posted:I have a few rules of thumb to eliminate some bets right off the bat: I'm pretty similar, although I do put A LOT of stock into what the public is doing, especially on football. If there is a game where the public is 70% of the bets and the line has moved a point or so, I put stock into that and normally bet with Vegas on the other side because they are not in the business of losing money. Other than that, I take what I know of the team and apply it. It's entertainment cash to me. I've been pretty drat good lately and my roll is roughly at 500%. It's working now, but it may not work tomorrow. Here is a good example of me doing the above. It was like 31 points under what the spread was. thompson posted:Added the under in the WSU game and that will be it for tonight. Was going to wait for +4 due to volumes, but 70% of public money on the over means I'm just going to bet with Vegas here. Games like these get broken imo because they're poo poo teams on national tv on a Friday in Vegas. Abnormal volume = donks. No way the line moves from 64 to 67.5 any other way imo. Going with Vegas. thompson fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Sep 10, 2014 |
# ? Sep 10, 2014 20:45 |
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I typically use some variation of Football Outsiders' picks even knowing that their early season metrics are somewhat useless. Here's their Week 2
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 20:57 |
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What do you guys use to watch lines move besides your eyes?
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 20:58 |
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Its Miller Time posted:What do you guys use to watch lines move besides your eyes? http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 20:59 |
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FO's record is pretty good considering they force themselves to pick against the spread for all 16 games every week
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 21:06 |
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Pron on VHS posted:FO's record is pretty good considering they force themselves to pick against the spread for all 16 games every week 2013 Overall - .479 Top 3 Confidence - .540
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 21:20 |
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Can you link the FO section that has this stuff? I'd love to start looking at it. It's so cool how big the margin is between their projected spread and the actual one. Both sportsbooks and FO have tons of brilliant people working full-time on this, I'd give anything to see how their process differs and what causes FO to project a spread for DAL/TEN that is FOUR points different from the actual one. edit: I guess its probably because a sportsbook creates a line that will entice 50% of bets on each side so they can max their expected revenue, whereas FO is just trying to predict the most accurate line Pron on VHS fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Sep 10, 2014 |
# ? Sep 10, 2014 21:28 |
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Pron on VHS posted:Can you link the FO section that has this stuff? I'd love to start looking at it. It's so cool how big the margin is between their projected spread and the actual one. Both sportsbooks and FO have tons of brilliant people working full-time on this, I'd give anything to see how their process differs and what causes FO to project a spread for DAL/TEN that is FOUR points different from the actual one. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/premium/spreads.php quote:Picks against the spread are based on an equation that measures current DVOA (using certain specific splits, not just each team's total) as well as weather, injuries, and (from Week 1 to Week 8) the Football Outsiders preseason projections. Please note that picks here during the postseason will be different from playoff odds listed on in the FO Playoff Odds Report because they are based on a more complicated formula, while the playoff odds report only considers overall DVOA.
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 22:22 |
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Yeah it's asking for a login. drat.
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 22:28 |
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Its Miller Time posted:What analysis do you guys use to help you bet? I really liked the FO odds, where they analyzed the game and came up with their spreads. I rode their call that the Carolina line was wrong big last week. The Supercontest bets also seem to be helpful. Also the FBG article each week: I'm with thompson on the contrarianism, to the extreme. If everyone likes one team, I'm on the other. It usually means big money on the other side, especially if the line moves in the "wrong" direction. This frequently means holding your nose and betting on a team you know is not very good, so its definitely not for everyone. I haven't posted picks in a few years, but if you dig the old threads out of the archives you'll find me doing well while disagreeing with most of the thread. https://twitter.com/squeekycleen is a good follow for this sort of thing, I learned sports betting from him on another, now closed, forum.
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# ? Sep 10, 2014 23:23 |
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8-6 and +1.55 units overall. St. Louis Cardinals pk Ravens -2.5
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 15:20 |
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0-3, -4U PIT +3 This is going to be an ugly game; I just like the Steelers offense more.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 15:28 |
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So I have 7U in bets going tonight. Pitt/Bal Under 23 1st Half -115 3U Pitt/Bal Under 44.5 -110 4U Also, for Saturday I put 4U on Georgia -5.5 and I think it has already moved to 6. Pretty happy with that, South Carolina struggled with ECU, so it made sense. Here is another site I use for consensus data. http://www.wunderdog.com/public-consensus.html I couldn't decide on this game so I just went with Vegas on O/U. If you're looking for a contrarian pick, go with Baltimore. thompson fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Sep 11, 2014 |
# ? Sep 11, 2014 16:23 |
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Took LOU Tech tonight +3.5 @ North Texas. 9-7 in football YTD.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 16:41 |
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Does anyone know where I could get past data on NFL over/unders? Like, the opening or closing O/U line on every NFL game played over the past 10 seasons? Doesn't matter what sportsbook's line, any will do
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 17:05 |
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Pron on VHS posted:Does anyone know where I could get past data on NFL over/unders? Like, the opening or closing O/U line on every NFL game played over the past 10 seasons?
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 17:07 |
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Chris de Sperg posted:Pro-Football-Reference has the closing Vegas O/U line for every game going a ways back, to get a mass output just screw around with the Team Game Finder: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi Wow, that thing is intense. Pro click.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 17:09 |
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Chris de Sperg posted:Pro-Football-Reference has the closing Vegas O/U line for every game going a ways back, to get a mass output just screw around with the Team Game Finder: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi YES
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 17:20 |
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I'm doing a supercontest with some friends to prepare for the real thing possibly next year. Went 3-2 week 1, should have been 4-1 but I didn't get my SEA bet in on time. These are my picks this week: PIT +2.5 -- I think Smith Sr. was a fluke and Flacco looked particularly bad week 1. NE -3 -- This is a classic buy low/sell high game. If this was week one this spread would be at least NE -6. GB -8.5 -- GB put up a decent fight against SEA, this should be a blowout at home. NO -6.5 -- CLE offense can't compete - if Gordon somehow gets reinstated before Sunday I'll probably regret this one ATL +5.5 -- Last week they looked like the 2012 Falcons that won a playoff game, meanwhile I don't think the Bengals had any right winning they played like garbage and pulled out a last second win against a pretty bad looking BAL. The falcons are kings of last second bullshit wins so I'll take the points. --- I also liked, but they didn't make the cut this week. MIA -1 ARI -2.5
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 17:23 |
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I'm thinking either a pit/byu teaser or parlay. Haven't decided yet
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 18:28 |
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got the over in NFL tonight, adding Houston +18
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 18:29 |
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Are CFL picks ok in here? Because these are probably good things to do the opposite of… MTL +10(-115) over 48, 2u - east sucks but MTL seems to be getting themselves back together a bit WPG +7(-115) under 49, 2u - I don't get this at all. Lulay is hurt, WPG hung in there vs sk last 2 weeks SSK +1, 5u - fan bet. Darian Not seeing tor/cal but more than likely Calgary is gonna blow them out. Taking them & over if it's -15 or better.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 18:56 |
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aehiilrs posted:Are CFL picks ok in here? Because these are probably good things to do the opposite of… Of course they are! You may even see me tail one of these because I like getting action and don't watch the CFL at all.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 18:59 |
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Picks for the week PIT/BAL under 44.5 -- It's a short week and these games are usually close and low scoring. Over the last 20 games the score has only gone over 44.5 points twice ATL +5 -- CIN didn't look good enough last week to be a 5 point favorite at home ARI -2 -- Not feeling too good about this. ARI should win and cover but I can see the Giants winning if the good Eli shows up. NE -3 -- Rams made the Vikings look good last week. The Patriots aren't the Rams. I don't think it will be a blowout but the Pats should cover. PHI/IND over 53.5 -- Two good offenses against two bad defenses, should be an easy over.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 19:38 |
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I have a major hard on for the under in the USC/GA game this weekend. Georgia hasn't scored more than 20 points at Carolina since 1994. I also like USC +6.5, but to a much lesser extent.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 19:40 |
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Merk Mang posted:Picks for the week I was just looking over the head to heads and think this pick looks really good statistically. Gonna take it, but drat am I shook after week 1.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 19:43 |
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thompson posted:Of course they are! You may even see me tail one of these because I like getting action and don't watch the CFL at all. Rule 1 for CFL betting: pick a game and take the prop that the first scoring play will be a single.
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# ? Sep 11, 2014 19:51 |
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Held my nose as I put a unit on the under in the PIT/BAL game. Let's hope this one plays out like it should.
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# ? Sep 12, 2014 01:46 |
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Viper_3000 posted:Held my nose as I put a unit on the under in the PIT/BAL game. Let's hope this one plays out like it should. Did the same right before it started. Hate picking unders but it just seemed right.
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# ? Sep 12, 2014 01:48 |
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Thank you Ravens. I should really stop betting baseball starting tomorrow.
Demented Guy fucked around with this message at 04:31 on Sep 12, 2014 |
# ? Sep 12, 2014 04:16 |
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God I love football season. Needed some skin on a game tomorrow so: Cincy -10 1U Saturday: Mizzou -10 1U Oklahoma -21 3U (Stoops is out to prove a point against the SEC) UMass +16 1U (Dores are REAL BAD) USC -6.5 1U USC/UGA Under 59.5 3U (Still loving this play) I want to take Kentucky +18.5 but I'm hesitant based on their past history.
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# ? Sep 12, 2014 06:42 |
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Got excited after winning the under and made two 2 team parlays: Seattle -2 and New Orleans -1.5: 2U pays out 2:1 Seattle -2 and Green Bay -2: 2U pays out 2.3:1
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# ? Sep 12, 2014 13:50 |
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9-7 overall. 3-2 in the NFL. +1.5 units Chicago Sky +7 (WNBA) Serbia -3 (FIBA) I don't watch the WNBA so that play is only based on my research. For the Serbia play, I'm riding them until the wheels fall off. France just gave everything they got to beat the host team. Serbia is severely underrated because they don't have well-known NBA players.
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# ? Sep 12, 2014 16:15 |
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 16:16 |
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Here are my weekend picks: NFL: PHI/IND Ov53 5U Arizona PK 5U Miami PK 4U New England -3 2U NCAA: Georgia -5.5 4U Tennessee +21 2U Indiana -8 3U Ucla -7 3U Cincinnati -10 3U
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# ? Sep 12, 2014 16:32 |