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Lord of the Llamas posted:I'm sure the complete decimation of the party he used to lead is positively hilarious to him........ Decimation merely means the loss of one in ten. I do not think the electorate will be anything like that gentle with the Lib Dems.
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Sep 25, 2014 00:04
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lol at anyone who thinks that the Lib Dems will only keep the Highlands and Orkney. They'll keep Eastleigh too.  In all seriousness, none of the Lib Dems that most people have heard of – Clegg, Farron, Cable, Alexander, Hughes – are going to lose at the next election, as they have massive majorities. Farron's seat is actually one where Labour lost their deposit last time around. Lib Dem seats are very weird to predict if you look at the national picture: Bradford East looks like a typical Labour gain to anyone who doesn't know Bradford, but I wouldn't be surprised if David Ward hung on next year. He's immensely popular in the area between his support for Palestine and community work with Bradford City. It doesn't hurt that the party appear to be throwing money and volunteers at it and they have as many councillors as Labour in the constituency (eight each, with 2 ex-Respect).
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Sep 25, 2014 04:38
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Zephro posted:Sincerity sounds like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xm_9hro7wDk (shame about the crappy overlaid music) "Look the thing you have to remember is...first point...second point.....satisfying third point." Once you know the rule of three, you'll never not notice it. You need it on your CV if you want to be a politician.
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Sep 25, 2014 08:13
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EvilGenius posted:"Look the thing you have to remember is...first point...second point.....satisfying third point." This is also known as a tricolon and is associated with the Roman orator Cicero.  Barack Obama - The New Cicero. A Guardian article from 2008 and what I first think of when people discuss his oratory skills.
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Sep 25, 2014 08:31
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Shyrka posted:I remember back in the Bush years you'd see Americans pop into these threads and gush about how amazing Blair's speaking was and bemoan that they didn't have anything like it. We were just impressed that Blair was able to speak in complete sentences and multisyllabic wods.
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Sep 25, 2014 08:35
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Rincewind posted:We were just impressed that Blair was able to speak in complete sentences and multisyllabic wods. That's not something to be misunderestimated.
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Sep 25, 2014 09:29
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Let's orl torlk loike John Mayjors!
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Sep 25, 2014 09:32
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TinTower posted:lol at anyone who thinks that the Lib Dems will only keep the Highlands and Orkney. I can't speak for any other MP they have, but Danny Alexander's seat is absolutely in play. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey is held by the SNP at Holyrood & they think they can pick it up this time out. I've also not met anyone in Inverness with much positive to say about Alexander so he's not exactly a popular local MP. I'd not be surprised if he keeps it, but at the same time, I'll be unsurprised if he loses it. There was polling earlier in the year that showed it's a lot closer than you'd expect from the size of his margin in 2010, but it's worth remembering the next-to-be-replicated popularity of the Liberals after Clegg's debate performances, and how quickly that fell off.
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Sep 25, 2014 09:36
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Kegluneq posted:This is also known as a tricolon and is associated with the Roman orator Cicero. Logos is a really weird word. The article uses it to mean argument, but I've known it as both word and knowledge. It's interesting how the distance of time warps our understanding of these things.
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Sep 25, 2014 09:58
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Peston on Labour's federalist plans: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29343927 quote:That said, if Cameron, Miliband and Clegg can swallow their personal animosities and sit round a table, what Labour would propose, or so I am told, would be a new federal structure for income tax.
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Sep 25, 2014 09:58
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Have we seen this?? David Cameron will apologise to the Queen after he was overheard saying she "purred" on hearing the result of the Scottish independence referendum. A camera crew recorded the PM telling former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg he had "never heard someone so happy" as the Queen after Scotland voted "no". Mr Cameron has said he is "embarrassed" and "extremely sorry" for the remarks. He has contacted Buckingham Palace and will apologise in person when he next meets the Queen, Downing Street said. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29357114
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Sep 25, 2014 09:59
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Kegluneq posted:This is also known as a tricolon and is associated with the Roman orator Cicero.
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Sep 25, 2014 10:18
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Fluo posted:Would rather have an inspiring orator? Marry me Fluo.
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Sep 25, 2014 10:24
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Lord of the Llamas posted:I'm sure the complete decimation of the party he used to lead is positively hilarious to him........ The last laugh in the sense he has been utterly vindicated while those who betrayed him destroyed the party. When Clegg loses he can invite him to drown his sorrows... ...I realise now what actually I want is a revenge film where Kennedy stalks and takes out those who stabbed him in the back. It would take place on election night 2015 and maybe he'd use alcohol against those who wronged him as an ironic twist. That or a remake of The Long Good Friday with Clegg as Bob Hoskins' character.
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Sep 25, 2014 10:52
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The Lib Dems are probably likely to have at least 25/30 seats in the next parliament; when you consider seats like Orkney and Shetland which will always vote Liberal, seats like Ross, Skye and Lochabar who have very strong local MPs who are very popular (in that case, Charles Kennedy) and a fair few Lib Dem/Tory marginals which would normally go if the UKIP factor wasn't reducing the Tory vote by quite a margin. They're going to get killed in Lib Dem/Labour marginals without strong incumbents, and probably also lose a lot of their Scottish seats because all of the evidence (opinion polling and the Scottish and Euro elections) seem to show the majority of Liberal Democrat votes in Scotland going to the SNP. It won't be the worst election result for the Lib Dems (they went through years of having five MPs and only having the funds to run 100 candidates before), and they'll probably have more MPs than they ever had before 97. The big thing is going to be how quickly they get votes back; because if it takes some time then they'll continue to lose seats at elections when popular incumbents retire and votes go elsewhere. In a way, the better that UKIP does, the more seats that the Lib Dems will hold on to, which is actually pretty funny when you think about it...
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Sep 25, 2014 11:42
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JFairfax posted:Have we seen this?? Courtesy of Jim'll Paint it: 
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Sep 25, 2014 11:51
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LemonDrizzle posted:Peston on Labour's federalist plans: Why is partial devolution of income tax now being talked up as 'federalism'? Isn't this the same stuff we've seen from their initial devolution proposals?
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Sep 25, 2014 11:53
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DesperateDan posted:Courtesy of Jim'll Paint it: Bloomburg unlike Dave has actually had some real jobs and seems like a nice fellow, he was very outspoken on gay marridge rights (in favour) iirc.
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Sep 25, 2014 12:04
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LemonDrizzle posted:Peston on Labour's federalist plans: this is in line with what was rumoured before the referendum, but I do wonder what happens when people start figuring out that the pro-decentralizing party is now Tory rather than Labour it makes sense to watchers but, gauging from the Scotpol thread, isn't really something that has occurred to many people yet
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Sep 25, 2014 12:19
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TinTower posted:In all seriousness, none of the Lib Dems that most people have heard of – Clegg, Farron, Cable, Alexander, Hughes – are going to lose at the next election, as they have massive majorities. Farron's seat is actually one where Labour lost their deposit last time around. Does the polling from Lord Oakeshott, which paints a rather grimmer picture for the Lib Dems than you do, not cause you concern?
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Sep 25, 2014 12:31
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Where I live in the London council elections this year the Lib Dems actually increased the amount of councillors they had, on the account of UKIP splitting the Tory vote.
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Sep 25, 2014 12:38
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This E15 mothers occupation is pretty great: http://wire.novaramedia.com/2014/09/focus-e15-mothers/
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Sep 25, 2014 13:16
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Strom Cuzewon posted:Logos is a really weird word. The article uses it to mean argument, but I've known it as both word and knowledge. It's interesting how the distance of time warps our understanding of these things. Greek words often conveyed a sense, a certain -ness, rather than a simple, singular, concrete meaning. Logos is probably one of the better examples of this.
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Sep 25, 2014 13:22
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Alertrelic posted:Why is partial devolution of income tax now being talked up as 'federalism'? Isn't this the same stuff we've seen from their initial devolution proposals? Wouldn't federalism be more about increasing the powers of the Welsh assembly and Stormont to match those of Holyrood, and creating an English assembly or Parliament rather than the precise distribution of powers between the central government and the regional authorities? Right now, Holyrood and Westminster do exist in a quasi-federal system in that you have a regional government underneath a central authority, with each having clearly delineated areas of responsibility.
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Sep 25, 2014 13:41
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This has to be one of the limpest political attacks I've ever seen: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/25/miliband-chose-forget-deficit-speech-clegg quote:Miliband chose to forget deficit in conference speech, says Clegg So that big mistake Miliband made by forgetting a small part of an hour long speech he delivered without notes? He did it deliberately because he is such a big meanie or something!
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Sep 25, 2014 14:09
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No, the big mistake is that they are the party that crashed the world economy, because Gordon sold the golds or something. I can think of a thousand criticisms of Labour, especially neoliberal New Labour, but not one of them relates to a belief that the other main parties would have handled a global economic collapse in a better way. They might have said "National Credit Card" more often though.
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Sep 25, 2014 14:37
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It's pretty funny that he forget to address the central question in contemporary British politics. He forgot to deal with immigration too, another awkward issue that Labour should have been fighting their corner on years ago. The annoying thing about the 'national credit card' stuff is that it won, people believed it. It's not even debateable in mainstream politics anymore. Austerity is simply an unquestioned reality that we have to deal with.LemonDrizzle posted:Wouldn't federalism be more about increasing the powers of the Welsh assembly and Stormont to match those of Holyrood, and creating an English assembly or Parliament rather than the precise distribution of powers between the central government and the regional authorities? Right now, Holyrood and Westminster do exist in a quasi-federal system in that you have a regional government underneath a central authority, with each having clearly delineated areas of responsibility. I agree. More devolution alongside an English parliament is what most people are talking about when they say federalism. My main issue is with invoking the language of 'federalism' or 'home rule' to explain the new proposals. I think it's mostly empty rhetoric designed to appeal to the wishful thinking of strong devolutionists/federalists. It's clear (looking at Gordon Brown's speech a few weeks ago for example) that what was discussed was intended to be more than a bit of income tax control, or reheated versions of previous proposals.
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Sep 25, 2014 14:40
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ReV VAdAUL posted:This has to be one of the limpest political attacks I've ever seen: I mean, come on...The deficit is an enormous issue and has shaped our economy and politics for a long time now. He really should have tackled it in the speech.
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Sep 25, 2014 14:49
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I'll admit to having only the vaguest grasp of national finances, but is the deficit really that big a deal? I understand that as these things go the UK has a fairly big one as a proportion of GDP, but it seems like plenty of countries have larger ones. And it's not as though people are going to stop lending to the UK, right? What actual problems does running a deficit cause that we need to cut so much spending to reduce it? e: Or rather to eliminate it, which seems to be current policy. big scary monsters fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Sep 25, 2014 |
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Sep 25, 2014 14:53
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Saki posted:I mean, come on...The deficit is an enormous issue and has shaped our economy and politics for a long time now. He really should have tackled it in the speech. And he fully intended to, his speech script contained a section on it that was photographed. Clegg's attack fumbles the open goal of "Miliband is absent minded / isn't focused on the important stuff" and instead tries to make out Miliband deliberately forgot it as some kind of malicious act. It is the stupidest possible line of attack to take on an issue that easy points can be scored on.
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Sep 25, 2014 15:05
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big scary monsters posted:I'll admit to having only the vaguest grasp of national finances, but is the deficit really that big a deal? I understand that as these things go the UK has a fairly big one as a proportion of GDP, but it seems like plenty of countries have larger ones. And it's not as though people are going to stop lending to the UK, right? What actual problems does running a deficit cause that we need to cut so much spending to reduce it? Most economists think the issue of the deficit is waaaaaay overblown, and in historical terms Labour's deficit during the previous government was actually pretty low. It's just a popular global delusion that no one seems to question because ???. EDIT: See e.g. http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2014/09/forget-the-deficit.html http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/uk-2015-2010-deja-vu-but-without-excuses.html http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/facts-and-spin-about-fiscal-policy.html Fangz fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Sep 25, 2014 |
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Sep 25, 2014 15:11
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Fangz posted:Most economists think the issue of the deficit is waaaaaay overblown, and in historical terms Labour's deficit during the previous government was actually pretty low. It's just a popular global delusion that no one seems to question because ???. Because most people don't know what the deficit is and why it's not necessarily a big deal to be in one. Politicians say "The UK is in debt thanks to X's policies" and people know this is a bad thing because who wants to be in debt? Miliband can't say "The Deficit is nonsense, a country with our debt rating is in no real trouble and we just need to spend money on boosting the economy and getting the unemployed back to work rather than cutting services and stunting our growth" because then the Headlines will be "Miliband set to plunge UK into inescapable debt spiral" and the 'fiscally responsible' Conservatives cakewalk another election. Never mind that Austerity was bollocks, policy can't reflect reality because most people don't understand the reality.
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Sep 25, 2014 15:28
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They have just sucessfully sold this whole thing where a nations spending is the same as a credit card, it just isnt. Times of deficit are when public spending should go up strangly because the country will get it all back plus some and it re-distributes wealth in a meaningfull lasting for years way that everyone gets the benifit from. The credit card bollocks works because normal people can relate it it. I dont claim to be someone who has a deep knowledge of macro-economics but it aint the same thing. Example: Build 100000 council homes over the next ten years. It will be loving expensive, but guess what the builders will be getting paid and paying taxes, the materials suppliers will be getting paid and most importantly you have 100000 houses which people can afford to live in and they are paying rent to the government and they are happy people living somewhere and working and paying taxes and having children who go on to do the same.
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Sep 25, 2014 15:29
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Fangz posted:http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2014/09/forget-the-deficit.html This is really cool, thanks for the link.
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Sep 25, 2014 15:34
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Saki posted:I mean, come on...The deficit is an enormous issue and has shaped our economy and politics for a long time now. He really should have tackled it in the speech. You're right on it shaping politics and needing to be spoken about but utterly wrong about it mattering a single gently caress economically. Pay the bills, print your debt, and nothing else matters. As long as we've got the £ we're golden.
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Sep 25, 2014 15:35
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big scary monsters posted:I'll admit to having only the vaguest grasp of national finances, but is the deficit really that big a deal? I understand that as these things go the UK has a fairly big one as a proportion of GDP, but it seems like plenty of countries have larger ones. And it's not as though people are going to stop lending to the UK, right? What actual problems does running a deficit cause that we need to cut so much spending to reduce it? Not even vaguely a big deal as long as the money we're borrowing is sensibly used, either by being a fiscal good (we see a better return on the borrowed money than the comically low interest rate we borrow at) or a social good (the NHS)
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Sep 25, 2014 15:36
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Fangz posted:See e.g. Interesting, thanks.
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Sep 25, 2014 15:46
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ReV VAdAUL posted:This has to be one of the limpest political attacks I've ever seen: Labour will not win, hope this helps.
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Sep 25, 2014 15:56
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There's a big problem you always face when you're up against an easy, soundbite narrative like: "We're in debt and need to cut spending." "More immigrants = less jobs for people like you." "People on benefits shouldn't get more than the average working family." The real causes of and answers to issues are much more complicated than this, obviously, but when you start to talk facts and figures most peoples' eyes glaze over and it's easy for the guy pushing the simple line to come back by making out like you're some weaselly pedant trying to dodge the issue. It's just inherently a weaker position. I don't know what - if anything - you can do about that, though.
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Sep 25, 2014 16:15
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Nonsense posted:Labour will not win, hope this helps. Who do you predict will win and by how much?
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Sep 25, 2014 16:36
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